Canada's 2026 Olympics Qualification Discussion Road to Milano Cortina 2026

[Josh 11,668]

So, given that we’re around halfway through the 2024-25 WC season for most sports, and some have started with Olympic qualification, I thought I’d do a rundown of where Canada’s at in regards to quotas (in those sports, like cross-country skiing and biathlon)

 

Biathlon (2024-25 Nations Cup Rankings)

1-3: 6 quotas

4-10: 5 quotas

11-20: 4 quotas

Women are ranked 14th, about 1000 points higher than Kazakstan in 21st, and about 700 points behind Czechia in 10th. Safe bet that we’ll probably end up with 4 quotas, barring a miracle/disaster. 
 

Men are ranked 21st, 15 behind Kazakstan in 20th, but almost 400 behind Lithuania in 19th. Tough task ahead for the boys. 
 

Cross Country Skiing (2024-25 Nations Cup Rankings/Required Points at 2025 WCHs)

300.00 FIS points for Men/330.000 FIS Points for Women at 2025 Worlds: 1 quota

1-5 in 2024-25 Nations Cup Rankings: 4 quotas

6-10 in 2024-25 Nations Cup Rankings: 3 quotas

11-20 in 2024-25 Nations Cup Rankings: 2 quotas

21-30 in 2024-25 Nations Cup Rankings: 1 quotas

 

There’s ranking complications that are almost impossible to calculate for my brain at least, so it could be more than this. 

 

Women are currently 11th, and will probably battle with Austria and Czech Republic for 3 quotas (400 points separating them), 4 because we’re quite likely to get the basic quota. 
 

Men are currently 9th, although it’s tight between them Austria and Great Britain for 3 quotas (350 points separating them), 4 because we’re quite likely to get the basic quota. But there’s so many complications and some can’t be calculated yet. 

[JockCartier 269]

Gonna really come down to the wire for the biathlon men. Getting some results at World Championships will be crucial

[Surlympics 1,254]

3 hours ago, JockCartier said:

Gonna really come down to the wire for the biathlon men. Getting some results at World Championships will be crucial

Let’s go men!!

[intoronto 6,584]

The FIS has released quota simulations for all its disciplines atm. For :

 

• Alpine skiing:  8 men 5 women (13 athletes). Same total in Beijing, but the genders are flipped this time around (5 men and 8 women in 2022)
• Cross-country skiing: 5 men 6 women (11 athletes) +2 from Beijing. 10 quota per gender left, the women are 7th on the allocation list, men 10th. The spots are reserved for countries not qualifying anyone yet, but managed to score under 300 points at a WC next season. This is unlikely, and we may get 2 more quotas.
• Ski jumping: 3 women, down 1 from Beijing. No men. 
• Freestyle skiing: Currently have 20 men and 19 women with quotas. Only discipline without a full quota is the women's slopestyle with 3. Maximum total is 30, so NINE athletes will need to be cut to get down to this number, which will represent a decline of two from 2022, where the maximum was 32. Its possible an athlete triples up in halfpipe/big air/slopestyle, which could help reduce numbers).
•  Snowboard (total: 18 athletes), down from 23 in Beijing 
  • Halfpipe: 2 women
  • PGS: 2 men and 2 women
  • SS/BA: 4 men and 2 women
  • SC: 3 men and 3 women 

 

Overall - 6 from Beijing

[JockCartier 269]

Can’t you get 32 in freestyle if you qualify for aerials mixed team?

 

Too bad we don’t even have any male ski jumpers too defend our legendary mixed team medal 😭😂

Edited March 21, 2025 by JockCartier

[Topicmaster1010 5,644]

2 hours ago, JockCartier said:

Can’t you get 32 in freestyle if you qualify for aerials mixed team?

 

Too bad we don’t even have any male ski jumpers too defend our legendary mixed team medal 😭😂

There were 3 male jumpers at the junior world championships. None qualified for the 2nd round. Hopefully we can see them in the world cup or even the Continental cup soon

[intoronto 6,584]

Canada tied the Czech Republic in the men's nations ranking in cross-country and because of this we lost a quota. We will definitely get one back in reallocation, 2 might not be possible. We shall see.

[NearPup 3,586]

On 3/21/2025 at 3:35 PM, JockCartier said:

Can’t you get 32 in freestyle if you qualify for aerials mixed team? 

This is correct, same rule that existed in 2022.

[JockCartier 269]

1 hour ago, NearPup said:

This is correct, same rule that existed in 2022.

Though so.

 

It’s a bit of an odd rule given there are only two countries anywhere close to 30

Edited March 23, 2025 by JockCartier

[intoronto 6,584]

2 hours ago, JockCartier said:

Though so.

 

It’s a bit of an odd rule given there are only two countries anywhere close to 30

It was probably done to protect those two countries (Canada ,and the US?). If Canada had to decline, surely it would have came from the Aerials, and that could potentially ruin the viability of the mixed team aerials event.