Rowing WR Final World Olympic Qualification Regatta 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[Makedonas 1,937]

On 5/9/2024 at 6:49 PM, Rafa Maciel said:

Women's Single:                - As with the men's single, the quotas could go anywhere. Czechia were the highest placed finisher at the recent Europeans but Switzerland won the B-Final in a quicker time. 

 

As above, the draw is going to be hugely important - as with the men, at last year's world champs, none of the repechage rowers were able to progress beyond the quarterfinals - so whoever wins the 3 heats and progresses straight to the semifinals is going to have a huge advantage as they'll avoid the afternoon repechage. Worth bearing in mind that the repechages will start only 3 hours after the heats finish - that's not a huge amount of time to recover. 

 

If I was pushed to make an early prediction, I'd be tempted to go with  and perhaps 

Our rowing federation posted an article about this regatta and said there are 3 quotas up for grabs in Lucerne in the women's single sculls. For the other events we are competing in, they said there are 2 quotas. Now, do we know if there is a reallocation or was this a typo?

 

Knowing our federation I will say it's probably a typo, but if not then that's massive for our girl as she's probably 4th-6th favourite, so she'd have a much better chance with 3 quotas than 2.

[Makedonas 1,937]

https://kopilasia.gr/νέα/sti-loukerni-i-ethniki-gia-tin-prokrisi/

 

This is the article, it says in two different places that there are 3 tickets for the women's single sculls...

[Rafa Maciel 1,512]

1 minute ago, Makedonas said:

https://kopilasia.gr/νέα/sti-loukerni-i-ethniki-gia-tin-prokrisi/

 

This is the article, it says in two different places that there are 3 tickets for the women's single sculls...

It is correct - the 3rd quota for single sculls is the reallocation of the host quotas. But it is not an open quota that can be won by any nation - it can only be allocated to an NOC who does not have any boats/crews qualified. 

[Makedonas 1,937]

7 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

It is correct - the 3rd quota for single sculls is the reallocation of the host quotas. But it is not an open quota that can be won by any nation - it can only be allocated to an NOC who does not have any boats/crews qualified. 

Thanks for the clarification. So in the end it won't make a difference for us, and probably that third athlete who gets the quota will come from Final B...

[Rafa Maciel 1,512]

2 minutes ago, Makedonas said:

Thanks for the clarification. So in the end it won't make a difference for us, and probably that third athlete who gets the quota will come from Final B...

I think it can only go to     or  so yep, pretty much certain to be from the B-Final

[avlar 295]

Official Communication 1 - Entry from SRB Men's Double Sculls 

Due to issues brought to the attention of the World Rowing Executive Committee and in order to avoid irreparable harm to the athletes, according to Rule 86 - Exceptional Cases, the World Rowing Executive Committee has decided to allow SRB athletes PIMENOV Nikolaj / MACKOVIC Martin to replace athletes BEDIK Alexandar / RAJKOVIC Matija who had been withdrawn after the entry deadline by the SRB Member Federation.

[intoronto 4,761]

11 minutes ago, avlar said:

Official Communication 1 - Entry from SRB Men's Double Sculls 

Due to issues brought to the attention of the World Rowing Executive Committee and in order to avoid irreparable harm to the athletes, according to Rule 86 - Exceptional Cases, the World Rowing Executive Committee has decided to allow SRB athletes PIMENOV Nikolaj / MACKOVIC Martin to replace athletes BEDIK Alexandar / RAJKOVIC Matija who had been withdrawn after the entry deadline by the SRB Member Federation.

What happened?

[avlar 295]

15 minutes ago, intoronto said:

What happened?

I do not know.

 

By the way, startlists are available 

https://worldrowing.com/event/2024-world-rowing-final-olympic-and-paralympic-qualification-regatta/

 

And host quota reallocation confirmed

 

There are two quota places in each of the Olympic boat classes, with the exception of the men’s and women’s single sculls, which have a third quota place that will be allocated to the highest ranked NOC that has not qualified any boats at the World Rowing Championships or Continental Qualification regattas or will not be amongst the top two qualifiers (irrespective of any Olympic boat class) at the FOQR Lucerne. This is due to the reallocation of the host country quota places.

Edited May 18 by avlar

[Ogreman 279]

Form rankings/predictions

M1x

W1x

M2x

W2x

LM2x

LW2x

M2-

W2-

M4x

W4x

M4-

W4-

M8+

W8+

1

ITA

IRL

AUS

GER

FRA

GRE

DEN

DEN

NOR

UKR

ITA

IRL

USA

ITA

2

GBR

ESP

SRB

RSA

GRE

FRA

NED

CRO

EST

CAN

SWI

DEN

CAN

GER

3

ROU

CZE

USA

CZE

GER

ITA

SRB

NZL

AUS

FRA

GER

JAP

ITA

CHN

4

IRL

SWI

MDA

SWI

POL

AUS

LTU

GER

CHN

USA

RSA

CHI

AUT

DEN

5

SLO

CHN

GRE

POL

CHN

SWI

GER

ITA

USA

POL

UKR

POL

6

HUN

JPN

BEL

GBR

POR

ESP

CZE

FRA

FRA

NZL

DEN

ESP

7

UKR

GRE

POL

HKG

USA

UZB

HUN

UKR

POL

8

ESP

SLO

SWE

AUT

INA

GRE

NZL

UZB

9

NOR

POL

CUB

HKG

AUT

CZE

CHI

10

AUS

BEL

POR

HKG

ESP

IND

11

CZE

TUR

INA

TUR

INA

12

CHN

HUN

JPN

IND

13

TUR

FIN

FIN

INA

14

POL

EGY

15

USA

16

MON

17

SWE

18

AZE

19

CYP

20

SVK

21

FIN

22

UZB

23

MEX

24

EST

25

IRQ

26

CIV

27

GEO

28

LBA

29

BEN

30

SUD

Green	Projected qualifier
Blue	Eligible for third singles quota
Underlined	Last realistic contender

So I did a similar exercise to this before world championships last year which proved fairly accurate so lets give it another go here. I think I stretched the definition of strictly a pure form guide at times here but I'll explain most of logic in the next post. Hoping to get 75-80% of the quotas right so lets set that as a target and see how close I ultimately get.

[Ogreman 279]

I know @Rafa Maciel already did a preview in this thread so hopefully I’m not repeating too much but I did want to explain my logic on some of these rankings.

 

Men’s single

 

Singles can be fairly volatile but Davide Mumolo  should qualify comfortably here. The race here is in theory between George Bourne  and Mihai Chiruta  where just 0.4 seconds separated them at Europeans. The host reallocation is only available to countries who have not yet qualified any boats. (I think including if they qualify a boat at this regatta but I think seemingly allowing the same country to take both reallocations, which is on the table for Slovenia.) It should see a battle between Isak Zvegelj  and Bendeguz Petevari Molnar  the 4^th and 5^th placed finishers at European continental qualifiers.

 

Women’s single

 

This one is wide open and one of the boat classes I am least confident in my rankings proving accurate (Probably second to the men's quad). Form guide says 42 year old Sanita Puspure  and Virginia Diaz Rivas  should be favourites although Sanita’s world cup 1 tactic of starting at a snails pace and then coming through late will make things very nerve-wracking if she replicates it. Alice Prokesova  impressed for bronze at Europeans but her previous results are uninspiring, Aurelia Maxima-Janzen  has struggled since retaining her under 23 world title last July especially early this year but has the ability to refind her form and China’s 17 year old Hong Zhu  finished 10^th at world cup ii last year as China 2 behind Ruiqi Liu  who went on to finish 14^th at worlds but it is very possible she has rapidly improved.

 

Men’s pair

 

 Olympic bronze medallists Denmark underperformed at worlds as a consequence of Joachim Sutton rowing across the pacific last July and are clearly back in form now having won bronze at world cup I against the strongest field of any boatclass at that regatta. The Dutch return to their Olympic combination from  2021 with Nicolas Van Sprang and Guillame Krommenhoek missing out on selection in the four and the eight respectively. Fifth at Europeans indicates they are the favourites to take the second quota. Serbia finished just under a second behind the Dutch at Europeans with their new combination and are the most likely boat to cause an upset. Lithuania (13^th at worlds) and Germany (15^th but with a potentially improved pair) could also threaten. Then again, I would be pretty shocked if this wasn’t Denmark and the Netherlands in that order.

 

Women’s pair

 

This one is tough, Italy were the highest ranked non qualifier from last year but Alica Codato and Aisha Rocek are no longer doubling up and are just in the eight now which means Italy are unlikely to challenge here. The New Zealand pair who finished 13^th are  the highest ranked unqualified boat remaining. The Danish and Croatian pairs both underperformed badly at last year’s worlds. They both won bronze at world cup I and Europeans respectively but the Danish beat the British by a larger margin so in theory are in slightly better form. Whether or not they are better than the Kiwis remains to be seen though. Germany were 14^th at worlds last year but are realistically unlikely to challenge here.

 

Men’s double

 

Australia trot out a new combination with David Bartholot from last year’s quad and who won bronze in this boatclass in 2022 (with Caleb Antill who is now in the quad) combining with coastal rower Marcus Della Marta who clearly impressed at trials. This is their priority sculling boat so I guess they start as the favourite here. Moldova and the USA were 12^th and 13^th last year at worlds but that distinction is really just down to the quarter final draw. Chirill Vesotchi Sestacov tried to qualify the single for Moldova at the European qualifiers finishing an unimpressive 8^th with Ivan Corsunov equally unimpressive at Europeans also in the single. I hope Moldova qualify but their uninspiring early form makes me doubt their chances. Greece and Belgium’s young doubles round out the contenders with 6^th and 7^th place finishes at Europeans. Both doubles have results that suggest they could be capable of qualifying here but both start as underdogs especially Belgium given their somewhat disappointing Europeans. Serbia’s late change has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons here. This double was very impressive at piediluco regatta including beating the Italian double and Sweden, Belgium and Greece and Pimenov comfortably won the European qualifiers in the single. I originally had them 8^th but I think this boat will qualify now.

 

Women’s double

 

Just one returning boat from last years world champs in 12^th placed South Africa but Germany’s rejigged combination of Frauke Hundeling and Sarah Wibberenz started the year in slightly better form than South Africa ended it. Czechia’s new double made up of two mediocre single scullers (Lenka Luksova, Anna Santruckova) had an impressive final at Europeans which alone probably would put them as favourites here but given the extreme conditions of that race and their previous results I’m not putting that much stock into it. Switzerland have former world champion Jeannine Gmelin returning from retirement into this boat and have been in the mix having beaten Czechia in the repechage at Europeans and could potentially qualify here especially if South Africa can’t replicate their world championships form.

 

Lightweight Men’s double

 

France were the big shock non qualifier across all boat classes last year but should comfortably qualify here. Potentially a very tight race between 2^nd through 5^th, I have Greece as slight favourites given how good their early season form was last year but Germany were the best ranked boat here at world champs finishing 10^th just ahead of Poland who narrowly missed out at Europeans and China. China however are racing a new young double which finished 6^th at world cup ii last year and are largely an unknown quantity coming into this regatta. Interestingly none of them five boats have raced eachother this year. Portugal would need a miraculous return to their 2022 form to have a shot.

 

Lightweight Women’s double

 

Probably the highest quality field here of any boatclass. For me Greece are favourites here. Italy’s lightweights have proven to all be basically the same so I don’t think it matters that it is a slightly different combination to the one Greece beat by 2 seconds at Europeans. France have not raced yet this year and while technically Italy finished ahead of France in the B final at last years worlds that is the only race that Italy have beaten France during this Olympic cycle. Australia with half of their current double underperformed to an eventual 13^th at worlds but were just a second behind Italy at world cup I and absolutely could play spoiler and get in amongst this fight. Having said that while this boatclass will be very close, I am reasonably confident in this order being what we ultimately see.

 

Men’s four

 

Italy have been the form crew this year and go in as heavy favourites. The battle between Switzerland and Germany for the 2^nd should be fascinating. Both of their races at world cup 1 were separated by a tenth of a second with the heat going Switzerland’s way and Germany edging their bow ahead in the final. I’m tempted to say Switzerland regressed slightly relevant to other boats at Europeans in Germany’s absence but that is probably reading into things a bit much. Rest of the final should be populated by South Africa, Ukraine and Denmark last year’s 10^th, 11^th and 12^th placed finishers. Both South Africa and Ukraine have tinkered with their crews but the margin between these 3 crews is likely to be small. Ukraine swapped Sergii Gryn and Maksym Boklazhenko since Europeans from their four to their quad and vice versa but I have no idea which boat is supposed to be stronger as a result. (Based on positioning it would be the quad but that doesn’t make a lot of sense given that they have a better shot in this event.) Ukraine beat Denmark by 0.05s at world cup 1 so this one will be close as well.

 

Women’s four

 

Really nothing to say here, Ireland and Denmark are way ahead of their competition and this shouldn’t be close. Japan finished 8^th of ten boats at world cup iii last year and bizarrely that may well be enough to finish third here.

 

 

Men’s quad

 

I had done almost all of these rankings last week when entries came out but this one took all week to figure out. All of these boats have made changes and about half of them are either new boats or a new priority sculling boat. Estonia were 8^th at worlds narrowly missing out on qualification and had a decent start to their season at Europeans. Australia were surprising non-qualifiers last year ending up 11^th and while they are now prioritising the double this is still a high quality quad and produced a very comparable performance to Estonia’s Europeans performance at world cup I. Norway were 10^th last year and started this season by trialling half of that both (Jonas Juel and Erik Solbakken) for the double against Jan Helvig and Kris Brun who qualified the double last year. Juel and Solbakken won that battle but Norway have opted to combine both doubles in the quad and presumably sacrifice being competitive in the double assuming they qualify the quad here. They were close behind Estonia last year so logically this move would put them ahead. The USA were 9^th last year albeit 9 through 11 were basically tied in the b final and the American’s other performances at that regatta weren’t as strong. Its harsh to slide them back a few spots but the other boats have all seemingly improved and they haven’t. China are the other major contender here. They moved their Olympic bronze medal and 2019 world champion double (Zhang Liang, Zhiyu Liu)(6^th in the double last year.) into this boat so will be much improved on their 14^th place finish last year. Then again 3 of the new combination (not including Zhang) raced this boat at 2022 worlds finishing 12^th. On the flip side they would only select this boat if they believed it would prove more competitive than their double that they qualified last year so I really don’t know what to do with them. (If they do qualify, they haven’t selected a double for world cup ii so they may then reject their quota in the double which would be good news for Moldova.) France have a new combination 3 of which came 8^th in this boat class in 2022. Finally, even the last few boats could surprise with New Zealand selecting a brand new quad mostly made up of recent under 23 world medallists and Czechia seem to have put their eggs in this basket selecting a new combination of four different Jans (Fleissner, Cizek, Potucek and Cincibuch) and should be much improved. But yeah, this boat class is tough and there are 6/7 boats that will come here expecting to qualify and only2 of them will.

 

Women’s quad

 

Ukraine have been in impressive form early this season and look like legitimate medal contenders for the Olympics. Behind them though is interesting Canada were the next highest ranked unqualified boat having finished 10^th last year (behind Italy who aren’t competing here.) They have moved their double from last year which would have been at least in the mix to qualify in the double into this boat so theoretically this Canadian boat should be stronger than it was last year. (Canada has only entered two boats desite only having two boats qualified and as such I would expect them both to perform strongly.) The US were 11^th last year but have made two changes to that boat, one of them somewhat enforced as Molly Reckford returns to the lightweight double after they experimented with various combinations in that boat last year. As such I don’t expect this boat to truly be in contention but it could surprise. France were 12^th last year but despite only one change they produced an impressive Europeans narrowly losing to an improved German quad which itself had beaten the British world champions and pushed the Dutch world silver medallists at world cup i. As such France are probably the safe pick given Canada’s racing a new combination but I’m going to trust my logic and back Canada.

 

Men’s eight

 

The USA have never failed to qualify in this boatclass and while there is some jeopardy here they should win. The battle for second is very interesting though. Italy and Canada finished within a tenth of each other at world cup ii last year and while Italy did win the b final at world championships ahead of Canada, Canada had beaten Italy by 5 seconds in the repechage and with more on the line that is the result I would put more stock into. Italy’s early season form has been decent but nothing to suggest that last years form should flip. For what its worth I like Austria’s decision to race an eight. These athletes aren’t good enough to qualify a pair or a four either, why not race an eight. I wish more countries would do it.

 

Women’s eight

 

Italy were the boat to miss out in last years A final and have started the season in really good form and should win comfortably. Behind them is interesting, China and Germany both beat each other once at last years worlds but both have significantly changed their selections. Germany have prioritised this boat over the four moving three of last year’s four into this eight. China’s changes mostly seem to involve young athletes of limited experience coming into the boat so I think this is Germanys to lose. Denmark won’t be too far away and were just 2/3 seconds behind Germany at world cup I and could realistically beat China.