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Athletics at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024


Totallympics
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On 7/4/2024 at 11:23 AM, De_Gambassi said:

So... using the world athletics top list for this season (except for the walking relay event where I used the World Championship results) and attaching a certain percentage of winning a medal/gold medal to each of the Top 8 athletes (Top 5 for a gold medal), I came up with a table showing the 'expected' medals for each nations at the Olympics.

 

 I don't know really how close to the real medals table this will be, but here it is :)

 

 

Country Medals Golds
:USA 33,3 12,4
:ETH 13,25 5,35
:KEN 11,75 4,3
:JAM 7,4 2,2
:ITA 6,6 2,3
:CAN 4,65 2,05
:GER 4,6 1,8
:NED 4,2 1,3
:CHN 4,15 1,4
:FRA 3,7 0,9
:GBR 3,65 1,5
:JPN 2,95 1
:ESP 2,55 0,85
:BEL 2,2 0,8
:CUB 2 0,75
:UGA 1,9 0,7
:AUS 1,85 0,4
:POL 1,75 0,45
:IRL 1,65 0,7
:BOT 1,65 0,5
:NOR 1,55 0,65
:UKR 1,4 0,6
:NZL 1,4 0,45
:BRA 1,3 0,35
:RSA 1,2 0,3
:POR 1,15 0,3
:SUI 1,15 0,3
:GRE 1 0,5
:SWE 1 0,45
:LTU 0,9 0,45
:LCA 0,85 0,25
:COL 0,8 0,45
:DMA 0,8 0,45
:CZE 0,8 0,25
:NGR 0,75 0,05
:AUT 0,65 0,25
:EST 0,65 0,25
:SAM 0,65 0,25
:SRB 0,6 0,15
:MEX 0,6 0,15
:BLR 0,5 0,15
:PER 0,5 0,15
:PHI 0,5 0,15
:PUR 0,5 0,15
:SLO 0,5 0,15
:ZAM 0,5 0,15
:BAH 0,45 0
:FIN 0,45 0
:CRO 0,4 0,1
:BUL 0,35 0,1
:HUN 0,35 0,1
:IND 0,35 0,1
:MAR 0,35 0,1
:ALG 0,35 0,05
:CIV 0,35 0
:BUR 0,25 0,05
:GRN 0,25 0,05
:KOR 0,25 0,05
:MDA 0,25 0,05
:GHA 0,25 0
:GUA 0,2 0,05
:QAT 0,2 0,05
:ROU 0,2 0,05
:TUN 0,2 0,05
:ZIM 0,2 0,05
:CYP 0,15 0
:DOM 0,15 0
:TUR 0,1 0

How has Greece a bigger chance to gold than Sweden? 

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Posted (edited)
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1 minute ago, Belle said:

How has Greece a bigger chance to gold than Sweden? 

It shouldn't. Both have - technically - the same chance  of winning a gold medal with only one athlete ranked first in the Top 5 of each event. I had mess it up a little bit.

 

Corrected version

 

Country Medals Golds
:USA 33,3 11,9
:ETH 13,25 5,25
:KEN 11,75 4,15
:JAM 7,4 2,05
:ITA 6,6 2,2
:CAN 4,65 1,95
:GER 4,6 1,8
:NED 4,2 1,2
:CHN 4,15 1,25
:FRA 3,7 0,7
:GBR 3,65 1,5
:JPN 2,95 0,9
:ESP 2,55 0,8
:BEL 2,2 0,75
:CUB 2 0,75
:UGA 1,9 0,65
:AUS 1,85 0,3
:POL 1,75 0,45
:IRL 1,65 0,7
:BOT 1,65 0,5
:NOR 1,55 0,65
:UKR 1,4 0,6
:NZL 1,4 0,45
:BRA 1,3 0,35
:RSA 1,2 0,3
:POR 1,15 0,3
:SUI 1,15 0,25
:GRE 1 0,45
:SWE 1 0,45
:LTU 0,9 0,45
:LCA 0,85 0,25
:COL 0,8 0,45
:DMA 0,8 0,45
:CZE 0,8 0,25
:NGR 0,75 0
:AUT 0,65 0,25
:EST 0,65 0,25
:SAM 0,65 0,25
:SRB 0,6 0,15
:MEX 0,6 0,15
:BLR 0,5 0,15
:PER 0,5 0,15
:PHI 0,5 0,15
:PUR 0,5 0,15
:SLO 0,5 0,15
:ZAM 0,5 0,15
:BAH 0,45 0
:FIN 0,45 0
:CRO 0,4 0
:BUL 0,35 0,1
:HUN 0,35 0,1
:IND 0,35 0,1
:MAR 0,35 0,1
:ALG 0,35 0,05
:CIV 0,35 0
:BUR 0,25 0,05
:GRN 0,25 0,05
:KOR 0,25 0,05
:MDA 0,25 0,05
:GHA 0,25 0
:GUA 0,2 0
:QAT 0,2 0
:ROU 0,2 0
:TUN 0,2 0
:ZIM 0,2 0
:CYP 0,15 0
:DOM 0,15 0
:TUR 0,1 0
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