Wrestling UWW World Olympic Qualifier 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[MHSN 3,326]

time for freestyle

 

57kg:

we have a balanced draw, Spencer Lee will get the top seed Zou in the 2nd round, next will be the former Euro Champ Egorov, I think Lee is going to win these matches, our only entry is in this weight with 2021 World silver medalist Sarlak, we know we are weak in this weight but still I'm trying to think positively  he will face Dingashvili and then ROU/KAZ to reach the SF. he is well capable of doing that but I don't think he can beat Lee 

I always rated Aman (IND) very high and he failed, I'm still going to do that  he has so much potential, just needs a better strategy. this time he has Vangelov (won't be easy but I think he can manage) and then Yatsenko/Zanabazar/Metreveli , most probably he will face the North Korean in the SF who only has Hurst Lehr as a serious opponent. I think the loser of Aman/PRK match will get the 3rd quota after beating Sarlak in the last match, so 

 

65kg:

that's a big bracket with something like 40 wrestlers ! I see 5-6 guys with a chance in top half, Dudaev, Skriabin, Kim, Arushanian, Sacultan, Duman, or even Clarke or couple more.

bottom half is more clear with 3 big names, and they are in the same quarter, Tulga and Retherford will face first and the winner gets Kudiev. I would pick these 3 guys to qualify but maximum 2 of them can do it. I'm also interested to see Sujeet, the new guy of India, he couldn't wrestle in Asia but he most be good and can do something, still my picks 

 

74kg:

UWW promised Chamizo to be the 1st seed here, instead he is going to wrestle the 1st seed in the first round  no big difference, the 1st seed won't be hard for him. his next match is not easy but he can manage, it will be Kentchadze or Valiev in QF, in the other quarter we have a tough part with Rassadin, Kaipanov, Khadjiev and Kuramagomedov. I think the winner comes from the first quarter. I give it to Chamizo but it depends a lot on Valiev's situation. he is recently hired by Albania

in bottom half I don't think anybody can prevent a Demirtas/Salkazanov semifinal. there are few dangerous guys like Mottaghinia or Saipudinov or Jaideep though. my picks 

 

86kg:

if Kurugliev is healthy, nobody beats him here but I know he is half-injured and couldn't do a thing in Baku. he has a tough draw and he won't survive it if not healthy, he has Makoev and then Gocen. probably Magamadov or Jezierzanski in QF. the winner of this part will face Deepak or Myakhailov in SF. I pick Kurugliaev but that depends on his health. I also think the winner of IND/UKR will get the 3rd quota

bottom half is not that hard, Ramazanov has a good chance to reach the SF with no trouble. In the last quarter Gamkrelidze and Sharipov are probably better than the rest. I think it goes down to Ramazanov/Gamkrelidze SF. so my picks 

 

97kg:
Arash Yoshida was unlucky to not win the quota in Asia, if he beats Bataev in the 2nd round he can go further to the SF. in the first quarter we have Thiele, Ibragimov, Nurov and the Mongolian, I expect to see a JPN/MGL semifinal

in bottom half I think Baitsaev can beat the Ukrainian and then Habila to go to the SF which will be probably against Baranowski. if Baran was healthy he would have a better chance for Poland. I say 

 

130kg:

I think the top half SF will be Ligeti vs Lazarev, only Rakhimov or Sumit can change that.

bottom half is harder, Deng will get the winner of Sharipov/Khotsianivski in QF and then Baran/Conyedo in SF. Sharipov was physically terrible in Asia. I'm not sure if he is 100% ready here. only because of this reason I think he will gas badly at some point and can't win 3-4 matches, therefore my picks 

Edited May 8 by MHSN

[Benolympique 1,843]

21 minutes ago, MHSN said:

I don't think so, but he is in the easier half of the draw, still needs 1 or 2 very big wins, not impossible but I don't think so

In your opinion, France cannot have 3 quotas on this TQO?

[MHSN 3,326]

16 minutes ago, CCB said:

@MHSNAny chance for Marcel Sterkenburg (-87) and Tyrone Sterkenburg (-97)? 

in Greco any solid wrestler can beat a favorite and I consider both of them as solid wrestlers. Marcel's first round looks OK, but then from the 2nd round he has to beat guys slightly better than himself. that's not impossible but he needs a bit of luck too

 

Tryone (97) had a good chance in Baku but lost it narrowly . this time it will be harder, I think he wins the 1st round. but like his brother from then he has to beat tough guys. 

 

so I don't think they qualify but I won't be very surprised if they do.

[MHSN 3,326]

8 minutes ago, Benolympique said:

In your opinion, France cannot have 3 quotas on this TQO?

3 quotas here ? unless you have a very good women's team, I absolutely don't think so. even 1 male quota is hard to achieve for France. even though I hope to see host nation being represented by more than couple of wrestlers in the games. that's good for the sport

 

Magamadov is very good but he received a very hard draw. still possible but will be very hard

[copravolley 73]

4 minutes ago, MHSN said:

3 quotas here ? unless you have a very good women's team, I absolutely don't think so. even 1 male quota is hard to achieve for France. even though I hope to see host nation being represented by more than couple of wrestlers in the games. that's good for the sport

 

Magamadov is very good but he received a very hard draw. still possible but will be very hard

How would you rate the Conyedo-Baran fight? When was the last time this Valiev from Albania fought somewhere?

[MHSN 3,326]

3 minutes ago, copravolley said:

How would you rate the Conyedo-Baran fight? When was the last time this Valiev from Albania fought somewhere?

Conyedo never did anything special since his move to 125kg. I know he is an Olympic medalist but his recent results aren't any good. Baran on the other hand didn't wrestle in Euro qualifier. which means he is more fresh. Baran is the favorite IMO but of course Conyedo has his chances too.

 

Valiev won the Russian nationals in 2023 but I can't remember if he wrestled anywhere after that. he was supposed to make his debut for Albania few months ago but for some reasons (injury or paperwork) it didn't happened. he won the World U23 title 3 years ago so technically he wouldn't be allowed to wrestle for another country. but looks like they paid the right guy in IOC to get an exemption for him

[pacowong1223 58]

As a Hong Kong sports enthusiast, I don't even know  has a wrestling team

So I am quite surprised the name of  appear here in World Olympic Qualifier (but not in Asian Qualifier / Asian Games), but I still think it would be a great experience for them

[prso1000 550]

Gutu MDA out in first fight 😳

[MHSN 3,326]

8 minutes ago, prso1000 said:

Gutu MDA out in first fight 😳

he wrestled for something like 2 minutes and he was literally dead !! 

 

yeah physical condition plays a big big rule here in this last chance tournament, Selcuk Can also lost which is a big surprise but he is a 72kg wrestler, obviously couldn't cut weight twice in a month, he was very poor here

 

this tournament is more unpredictable than any other wrestling tournament. 

[ChandlerMne 645]

Trivia:

only one Indian wrestler doesnt have double name. And its Sutil Kumar.

Everyone else is Nitesh Nitesh, Vikas Vikas and so on.