Boxing IOC Olympic Qualifier 1 2024

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Men's 57Kg:

3A Bout 64 -  Nurbek Oralbay def.  Cedrick Belony-Duliepre

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Men's 80Kg:

3A Bout 77 -  Kaan Aykutsun def.  Charles Cox

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Men's 80Kg:

3A Bout 61 -  Jeven Beausejour def.  Rafayel Hovhannisyan

[hckošice 14,822]

Bandi won his opening match against Andrei Chiricov of   in the M -80kg

 

Bibiana Lovášová lost to Gomez Landeata from in the W -54kg

 

Tomorrow Miroslava Jedináková will fight Hanna Okhrei from in W -60kg, Viliam Tankó vs Jesus Cova of in M -63.5kg and Ladislav Horváth vs Tony Jas from in M -71kg

Edited March 4 by hckošice

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Day 2 morning session finished a couple of hours ago but they haven't posted the results. 

 

There were 29 bouts in the session and I was able to find about 1/3 of the results.

 

Across the two days,           and  have been pretty good with quick posting results on Facebook or Insta.  media is also pretty quick to post results.

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

Session 3A & 3B results have been published on the event page but not on the athlete365 site. Result on the event page also provide more detail:

 

day-2-session1.pdf (boxingbustoarsizio2024.com)

[Rafa Maciel 1,594]

1 hour ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Men's 80Kg:

3A Bout 61 -  Jeven Beausejour def.  Rafayel Hovhannisyan

Looks like I interpreted Boxing Canada's Instagram post incorrectly -  Hovhannisyan actually won 5-0. 

[Ogreman 355]

Predictions part 4 

 

W50,W57,M51,M71,M92+ bottom page 5/ page 6 in that order

W54,W60 on page 9

M57,M80 on page 11

Top 30 rankings per weightclass on the boxing Olympic rankings thread.

 

Right finally after many many hours and only three boxing sessions late but with every individual weight class in time of course these predictions are done. They better end up being accurate enough or I will be fuming. Honestly though with the number of entries if I hit over 50% we should be doing ok 60% would be great.

 

M63.5kg

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Somchay Wongsuwan (8) , Other contenders- Jose Viafara (5) , Jesus Cova (10) , Viliam Tanko (11) , Gianluigi Malanga (15) .

A very open draw here with some quality first round matchups Jesus Cova meets Viliam Tanko and Jose Viafara meets home boxer Gianluigi Malanga. The two south americans are both stong boxers but Malanga did beat Viafara back in 2021 and I think Tanko will get the better of Cova. Watch both of those picks be wrong. The winner of Tanko vs Cova will then face Somchay Wongsuwan. Wongsuwan is a talented boxer but picking him over 2022 Asian 67kg champion Bunjong Sinsiri is bizarre and could cost them a quota. The winner of that fight should then meet the victor of Malanga va Viafara in a "semi final" effectively for the quota. One of Bartlomiej Roskowicz (28) , Mizan Aykol (27)  or Saparmyrat Odajev (33)  will be the matchup in the qualifying fight but won't pose any threat. Honestly you could pick a number between 1 and 5 here to decide this. I'll reluctantly pick Wongsuwan but I don't know.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Alexy de la Cruz (3) , Other contenders- Yuri Falcao (19) , Salvador Flores (17) , Assan Hansen (21) .

The draw would have struggled to be kinder to Alexy de la Cruz after he kind of butchered it against Miguel Ramirez  at Panams. His toughest fight may well be his first one against Yuri Falcao before fights against Obada al Kasbeh (29)  and then probably Joshua Tukamuhebwa (31) . In the other half of the bracket Salvador Flores fights Ali Qasim al Sarray (32)  and Assan Hansen faces Alexandru Paraschiv (24)  or Wang Xiangyang (NR) . Hansen and Flores should come through to set up a finely balanced "semi final". Neither are likely to push de la Cruz.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Ruslan Abdullaev (1) , Other contenders- Radoslav Rosenov (4) , Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (7) .

This bracket will produce some good fights. At the top 2023 world champion Ruslan Abdullaev faces Shiva Thapa (25)  in his opening fight followed by a very easy fight and then likely meets Mirzokhid Imamnazarov (26)  in a "semi final". Meanwhile Radoslav Rosenov and new and improved Kazakh selection Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu who plugs a whole in what was by far their weakest men's weightclass meet in their respective second bouts. For me Rosenov edges out Bazarbay Uulu. Danylo Zamorylo (13)  or Aleksej Sendrik (22)  would then be next opposition ahead of meeting Abdullaev. Abdullaev may not be the favourite for gold in Paris but he is still a world class operator and should beat his opponent here.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Erislandy Alverez (2) , Other contenders- Bakhodur Usmonov (6) , Emilio Garcia (9) .

60kg world silver medallist Erislandy Alvarez correctly gets selected over multi Olympic medallist Lazaro Alvarez  (no relation). He opens his account with a tough fight against Emilio Garcia before his toughest challenge against Bakhodur Usmonov in the following round provided Usmonov can beat the experienced Louis Richarno Colin (18) . Usmonov vs Alvarez could be one of the fights of the tournament but it is tough to pick against the Cuban. The other half of the bracket likely Tayfur Aliyev (12)  meet Tokyo featherweight bronze medallist Samuel Takyi (16)  with the winner likely facing Patris Mughalzai (14)  who replaces the injured Reese Lynch . Any of the three could come through but none are in the same tier as Alvarez or Usmonov. I'm going to guess Takyi ends up being Alvarez' quota match opponent

 

 

 

M92kg

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Lazizbek Mullojonov (1) , Other contenders- Georgi Kushitashvili (7) , Berat Acar (9) .

Mullojonov deserved to qualify at Asian games but has a tricky enough path to secure his quota here albeit he won't be tested at all until qualification is on the line. On the other side of the bracket we have two fascinating opening round fights with Georgii Kushitashvili who looks much more comfortable at 92kg than 80kg meeting Berat Acar and in form Vagkan Nanitzanian (14)  matching up with the one remaining unqualified Australian Adrian Paoletti (18) . Kushitashvili and Nanitzanian should be slight favourites and would then face Victor Schelstraete (22)  and Marko Calic (17)  respectively. If they come through those tests we would then get a rematch of the recent Strandja final which Kushitashvili won. Kushitashvili would be a tough opponent for Mullojonov but you would have to back Mullojonov's power.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Enmanuel Reyes (2) , Other contenders- Loren Alfonso Dominguez (5) , Sadam Magomedov (11) .

An interestingly poised bracket with a heavyweight matchup between Enmanuel Reys and Loren Alfonso Dominguez two former Cubans competing against eachother for 2 countries that a very much not Cuba. Alfonso Domniguez does have to beat Yan Zak (23)  first who shockingly beat him at European games.  The winner would then face Carlos Rodriguez (15)  who could provide a tricky test. At the bottom of the bracket Experienced Sadam Magomedov faces Tyron Amo (24)  (who strangely is here ahead of Alexander Okafor ) followed by the winner of Erkin Adylbek Uulu (21) and 2022 86kg Asian champion Jakkapong Yomkhot (19) . If Magomedov does indeed come through Reyes has beaten him before. I trust Reyes to produce when it counts more than Alfonso Dominguez so I think he gets the quota here.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Aibek Oralbay (6) , Other contenders- Narek Manasyan (3) , Julio Castillo (4) , Jamar Talley (8) .

A fascinatingly balanced draw with likely "semi finals" in Narek Manasyan vs Jamar Talley and Aybek Oralbay vs Julio Castillo with only Sanjeet (13)  who faces 2022 Asian champion Oralbay (who regains the Kazakh number 1 spot at this weightclass). Both of the above fights should be terrific but I think Manasyan will be slightly too good for the still inexperience Talley and Oralbay may deny Castillo this shot at a third Olympics. Oralbay vs Manasyan could then legitimately go either way but I'm going to pick Oralbay despite ranking him lower. 

 

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Marlon Hurtado (10) , Other contenders- Soheb Bouafia (12) , Patrick Brown (16) .

With so many quality fights above we were always going to end up with a lower quality bracket albeit one with still some interesting fights. Surprise British selection Patrick Brown has a very easy path to a quota fight. Marlon Hurtado has to go through Mateusz Bereznicki (20)  and Soheb Bouafia (12) . The young Colombian will be tested against Bouafia and Brown and may prove a misguided pick but I'm going to back the young boxer here.

 

 

Edited March 4 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 355]

W66kg

 

Bracket 1

 

My Pick- Navbakhor Khamidova (7) , Other contenders- Emilie Sonvico (8) , Ani Hovsepyan (9) , Ankushita Boro (12) , Maria Moronta (14) . 

I tend to regard Emilie Sonvico as a good guage for this weightclass. If you're good you will beat her, If you're not you won't. She faces Ankushita Boro in the first round. Ankushita replaces Arundhati Choudhary  in the Indian team who beat Sonvico at Strandja so we will get an immediate guage on if they got their selection right. Luna Beeloo (19)  awaits the winner before a "semi final" against Navbakhor Khamidova. Khamidova has beaten Ankushita before and would also be the favourite against Sonvico. The other half of the bracket will be decided in a "quarter final" between Ani Hovsepyan who moves down from middleweight and Olympian Maria Moronta. Both are more natural light-middleweights than welterweights. Hovsepyan lost on the previous occasion she matched up with Khamidova and I suspect Moronta would struggle too.

 

Bracket 2

 

My Pick- Nien Chin Chen (1) , Other contenders-  Milena Matovic (11) , Anastasia Chernokolenko (15) .

Should be pretty straightforward this one. Nien Chin Chen has a couple of fairly straightforward fights against Jessica Triebelova (21)  and either Krista Kovalainen (17)  or Saida Lahmidi (18) . Meanwhile another of the considerable number who have move down from 75kg Anastasia Chernokolenko has a tough ask to beat Milena Matovic. (The 75kg to 66kg jump isn't as big as you might think as a lot of the top middleweights box close to 70kg than 75kg.) The winner would likely face Marianna Soto (24) . Chen should comfortably win but you never know.

 

Bracket 3

 

My Pick- Camila Camilo (2) , Other contenders- Angela Carini (10) , Ivanusa Moreira (13) , Sara Kali (16) .

This should be Camila Camilo's quota to lose but she is young and still fairly inexperienced. She will be tested straight off the bat against Tokyo Olympian Angela Carini who interestingly comes back into the Italian team over Assunta Canfora who "lost" in the most bizarre RSC decision possibly ever against Camilo at last years worlds. The Italians will be out for retribution here. Whoever wins that fight would likely go on to meet Sara Kali in a "semi final" who not for the first time managed to impressivley beat 2022 world silver medallist Charlie Cavanagh CAN at Canadian trials. Unfortunately you have to go back to 2017 to find a win for her against non Canadian opposition. Ivanusa Moreira always seems to get a favourable draw for her first couple of fights. Here she meets Emily Nakalema (23) UGA who did beat her back in the Tokyo qualification tournament and likely Yulianny Alvarez (25) VEN. Nakalema or Moreira could threaten Camilo or Carini but I suspect Camilo will get the job done here.

 

Bracket 4

 

My Pick- Aneta Rygielska (3) , Other contenders- Stefanie Von Berge (4) , Grainne Walsh (5) , Stephanie Pineiro (6) .

Far and away the toughest bracket here. First up Aneta Rygielska will be tested against Stephanie Pineiro who is good but not that good. Rygielska then meets Seon Su-jin (28)  followed by the winner of Natalya Bogdonava (20)  vs Loren Balbuena (22)  who strangely moved down from middleweight to replace Lucia Noelia Perez . On the other side of the draw we see 2022 European champion Stefanie Von Berge meet controversial Irish selection Grainne Walsh. Amy Broadhurst was injured during the selection process but may have been available here and that still leaves 2022 70kg world champion Lisa O'Rourke who beat Walsh in Poland last November. It is a strange pick but make no mistake Walsh is a very good boxer and multi European medallist, she just doesn't have the same Olympic medal threat as the other 2 well certainly not as much of a medal hope as Broadhurst. Anyway, this should be a very good fight but I would lean towards Walsh winning. (I ranked them the other way around though before they drew eachother so I clearly amn't sure). Anyway, whether it is Walsh or Von berge, Rygielska has won and lost against both of them in this Olympic cycle. I think Rygielska is the most reliable but any of the three of them could take the quota here.  

 

W75kg

 

Only thirty entries so surprisingly there are 2 boxers who start the tournament just 2 fights away from a quota.

 

Bracket 1

 

My Pick- Cindy Ngamba (1) , Other contenders- Busra Isildar (5) , Veronkia Nakota (6) , Naomi Graham (4) .

Strong first bracket with 5 of my top 10 in the rankings all here especially given the lack of depth in this weightclass. Cindy Ngamba had an impressive GB open in January but is yet to break through with a major medal albeit her loses have come against elite opposition. She has a very tough path here though with the powerful but past her best Naomi Graham. We then shift to the other end of the age bracket with 2022 70kg youth world champion Veronika Nakota who already has a couple of impressive results at senior level. On the other side of the draw Busra Isildar meets one time world champion (2016) Valentina Khalzova KAZ. The likely outcome is a qualifying fight between Ngamba and Isildar which should be a fight worthy of an Olympic quota.

Bracket 2

 

My Pick- Baison Manikon (8) , Other contenders- Karolina Makhno (9) , Hergie Bacyadan (11) , Chantelle Reid (12) .

The draw has opened up for 2022 European under 22 champion Karolina Makhno although that isn't to say she won't be tested. At the top of this bracket Asian bronze medallist Baison Manikon who will meet Makhno in a "semi final". That fight could go either way. Meanwhile Hergie Bacyadan will meet Chantelle Reid provided Bacyadan can beat Viviane Pereira . Chantelle Reid is a strange selection by the British and I think Kerry Davis who she replaced would have qualified from this bracket. I have Bacyadan slightly ahead of Reid but we shall see. If Makhno could come through Manikon and Bacyadan/ Reid they would be the best two wins of her career. I'm going to pick the in form Manikon though. (If you couldn't tell, yes I changed my pick halfway through writing this)  

 

Bracket 3

 

My Pick- Citlalli Ortiz (3) , Other contenders- Sunniva Hofstad (7) , Love Holgersson (13) , Gabriele Stonkute (14) .

Hmm a very northern European heavy bracket. 2022 81kg world champion Gabriele Stonkute meets Elizabeth Andiego (21) in her first fight before matching up against Sunniva Hofstad in the second round. There one previous meeting went Stonkute's way although it was a split decision and in Lithuania. The other side of the draw sees Citlalli Ortiz meet the experienced and very tall Love Holgersson. I mention the height thing because Ortiz is very short for a middleweight and will struggle reach wise. Then again if she can get on the inside she should win. Ortiz vs Hofstad or possibly Stonkute should be a decent fight but I am backing the Mexican.

 

Bracket 4

 

My Pick- Elzbieta Wojcik (2) , Other contenders- Melissa Gemini (15) .

Draw could not have been kinder to Elzbieta Wojcik. She does have to come through against Melissa Gemini. They uhm drew at an Italy vs Poland international last year although presumably with Italian judges. One of Eseta Flint (19) , Patricia Mbata (18) , Keidy Guevara (17)  and Monika Langerova (20) will meet Wojcik in a qualifying fight. All four of them are fairly evenly matched but won't threaten Wojcik

Edited March 4 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 355]

Rank	Country	Projected qualifiers	Already qualified	Projected Total
1	Kazakhstan	6	2	8
2	Uzbekistan	4	4	8
2	Poland	4	0	4
4	Thailand	3	4	7
4	Colombia	3	3	6
4	Spain	3	2	5
4	Ukraine	3	1	4
8	USA	2	5	7
8	Chinese Taipei	2	4	6
8	Cuba	2	3	5
8	Great Britain and NI	2	3	5
8	Philippines	2	1	3
13	Brazil	1	9	10
13	Ireland	1	5	6
13	India	1	4	5
13	Japan	1	2	3
13	Mexico	1	2	3
13	Serbia	1	2	3
13	Croatia	1	1	2
13	Dominican Republic	1	1	2
13	Armenia	1	0	1
13	Refugee team	1	0	1
13	South Korea	1	0	1
13	Vietnam	1	0	1
13	AIN (Belarus)	1	0	1
26	Australia	0	12	12
26	China	0	7	7
26	France	0	7	7
26	Turkey	0	6	6
26	Algeria	0	5	5
26	Italy	0	4	4
26	Bulgaria	0	3	3
26	Egypt	0	3	3
26	Morocco	0	3	3
26	Nigeria	0	3	3
26	Azerbaijan	0	2	2
26	Belgium	0	2	2
26	Canada	0	2	2
26	Ecuador	0	2	2
26	Hungary	0	2	2
26	Mongolia	0	2	2
26	North Korea	0	2	2
26	Tajikistan	0	2	2
26	Denmark	0	1	1
26	DR Congo	0	1	1
26	Georgia	0	1	1
26	Mozambique	0	1	1
26	Panama	0	1	1
26	Puerto Rico	0	1	1
26	Romania	0	1	1
26	Samoa	0	1	1
26	Sweden	0	1	1
26	Tunisia	0	1	1
26	Venezuela	0	1	1
26	Zambia	0	1	1

 

This table would have been more useful pre tournament as I think 2 of my picks have already being knocked out. I have this obviously being profitable for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan after underwhelming Asian games performances and have them moving to joint 3rd on the total number of qualifiers list. Ukraine and Poland should recover from poor European performances here although I would have expected to have GB in this category too but I have them only taking 2 quotas which is still decent just not where they expect themselves to be. Thailand, Colombia, USA and Spain (Molina lost though so one is already gone) all add to already good continental totals. Ireland, Italy India, Japan, Armenia, France and Georgia would all be dissapointed not to add more to their quotas but all are capable of outperforming this projection. I think Germany, Ghana and the Netherlands are probably the most notable countries that would still not have a quota. Germany could easily get one here I just didn't personally didn't pick Tiafack or Von Berge.

 

Interestingly I have Asia picking up 21 quotas Europe 18 (counting Ngamba) and 10 for the Americas. Unfortunately none for Africa although that is largely because a lot of the best boxers aren't competing here I would assume predominantly for funding reasons. Mozambique, Zambia and DR Congo to name a few could all have been in contention for quotas here.

Edited March 4 by Ogreman