Nations that can win their first Olympic medal at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[SalamAkhi 359]

23 hours ago, Josh said:

 Agate De Sousa - Athletics - Women’s Long Jump

She's apparently willing to compete for Portugal. No international participation for São Tomé since 2019 but yet no indication of a transfer of allegiance on her WA page.

[phelps 8,693]

On 9/27/2023 at 6:42 AM, El Analyzer said:

I took some brave tablets and would say ...  in basketball 

it would be nice (and a great story), but I fear it's not gonna happen 

[heywoodu 16,460]

As far as I could tell, there is no specific thread for this but with the first gold medals, and I didn't think it'd be big enough to open one, so here we go

 

It's not a first medal, since Mauritius  has won one bronze medal in boxing once, but they surprisingly have a shot in women's cycling this year. It's not a huge chance, obviously, but in Tokyo we saw how someone who wasn't even considered on any list of dark horses ended up with the gold due to the Dutch women totally fucking up their tactics, so weird things can always happen

 

Kimberley Le Court Pienaar has been very impressive this year, often fighting at the front of the very biggest one-day races. Again, she is far from being the favourite, but I'd say her chances are significantly bigger than Anna Kiesenhofer's chances were ahead of Tokyo, and we know how well that ended. Definitely worth a mention, the chance exists!

[dodge 1,041]

While I don’t think she will win a medal (she hasn’t been top 5 in any race this year), she’s a very interesting character. Shes 28 and this is her first ever professional season. Before this year her only races were representing her country

[heywoodu 16,460]

8 hours ago, dodge said:

While I don’t think she will win a medal (she hasn’t been top 5 in any race this year), she’s a very interesting character. Shes 28 and this is her first ever professional season. Before this year her only races were representing her country

Like I said, she's definitely not a medal favourite, but "she hasn't been top-5 in any race this year" is rather underselling her qualities/performances  

 

Since January, every single race she has done from the Deakin University Elite Women's Road Race on (where she finished a more than excellent 9th) has been a big one-day World Tour race, none of those smaller .1 races in between. A very respectable 25th in a tough Strade Bianche, after being in the breakaway for a long time, 11th in the Trofeo Alfredo Binda, 9th in De Panne, 13th in Gent-Wevelgem and probably the best of all, 10th in Roubaix after very much being part of the main part of the race at the end. Her weakest race in the past two months was a 23rd in the Tour of Flanders, of all places. That being one's worst result says a lot (in a good sense).

 

In her entire pre-Olympic career, Anna Kiesenhofer had basically accomplished nothing remotely near to what Pienaar has shown in the past three months alone. Again: that does not make her the (or a) favourite, obviously, but in road racing weird things can happen and she is definitely a contender to keep an eye on, instead of one of the default 'exotic nation riders' who we often see in the first lead group of the world championships.

Edited April 25, 2024 by heywoodu

[Speedy 99]

Chances (+/- realistic) for countries for their first olympic medal in history.

 

 Abakarov, Dudaev, Valiev (all wrestling)

 Doria Villarubla (canoeing slalom)

 Pudar (swimming)

 McMaster (athletics)

 LaFond (athletics)

 Men's football

 Men's football

 

Someone else? What do you think?

[Makedonas 2,262]

Such a shame that like ,  will also probably have their first ever Olympic medal come from a naturalised athlete who has nothing to do with the country...

 

 

Also in before they start trying to claim Dimas, Sabanis, and Kokas  Manjani and I think Mitrou were actually Albanians though to be fair.

[Bearas 628]

Only my opinions

 

Big chance:

 - naturalised wrestlers + potential impact from Gega

 

Good chance:

 - strong chances in athletics

 LaFond in Triple Jump

 

 

Small chance:

 - women's canoeing

 - leaving room for Yarigo to surprise everyone, although very small chances.

 - Pudar have small chances in swimming.

 - football, everyone's game.

 - small chances in marathon

 - women's weightlifting, especially post disqualifications

 - football and taekwondo

 - athletics

 

Miracle needed:

 - competes in various sports, but no athletes that can win a medal imo

 - always decent in athletics sprints and sailing, but not close to medals

 - we had surprise victories in BMX before, so you never know, otherwise not really..

 - we have seen surprise medals in boxing and with relatively small boxing pools, there might be a chance

 - we have seen surprise medals in boxing and with relatively small boxing pools, there might be a chance

 - competes in numerous sports, maybe surfing can be a bit more unexpected

 - taekwondo produced some surprise medal winners before, so...

 - with weightlifting disqualification, they might receive medal after few years hehe..

 - simply because of surprise element of combat sports.

 - healthy athletics sprinting squad

 - miracle needed for table tennis

 - weightlifting

 - cycling and long distance running

 

No chance:

 

Edited July 9, 2024 by Bearas

[Albrain 91]

4 minutes ago, Bearas said:

Only my opinions

 

Big chance:

 - naturalised wrestlers + potential impact from Gega

 

Good chance:

 - strong chances in athletics

 LaFond in Triple Jump

 

 

Small chance:

 - women's canoeing

 - leaving room for Yarigo to surprise everyone, although very small chances.

 - Pudar have small chances in swimming.

 - football, everyone's game.

 - small chances in marathon

 - women's weightlifting, especially post disqualifications

 - football and taekwondo

 - athletics

 

Miracle needed:

 - competes in various sports, but no athletes that can win a medal imo

 - always decent in athletics sprints and sailing, but not close to medals

 - we had surprise victories in BMX before, so you never know, otherwise not really..

 - we have seen surprise medals in boxing and with relatively small boxing pools, there might be a chance

 - we have seen surprise medals in boxing and with relatively small boxing pools, there might be a chance

 - competes in numerous sports, maybe surfing can be a bit more unexpected

 - taekwondo produced some surprise medal winners before, so...

 - with weightlifting disqualification, they might receive medal after few years hehe..

 - simply because of surprise element of combat sports.

 - healthy athletics sprinting squad

 - miracle needed for table tennis

 - women's weightlifting

 - cycling and long distance running

 

No chance:

 

 are not sending any women weightlifter for this games

[stratocumulus 68]

On 2/8/2023 at 12:36 PM, Dragon said:

Finished  4th in 2008 but the Russian and Kazakhstani both got caught doping

Just to be factually correct - it was a Ukrainian and KAZ who got caught....  I believe we all see a difference between RU and UA now...