Athletics WA World Championships 2023

[SalamAkhi 323]

  On 8/28/2023 at 3:57 PM, Josh said:

On Norway, don't see Skotheim or Rooth developing enough to become podium contenders by the time Paris comes around. Would favor Mayer (fully healthy), Warner, LePage, Neugebauer, Moloney (also fully healthy), Victor, and maybe Garland at the moment.

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Doubtful about Moloney now. You forgot Tilga in there too, and even Ziemek and Harrison Williams, Owens ? 

I don't see any reason to think Skotheim could not be a medal contender in Paris. His potential is already over 8900, similar to Victor's, not far off Garland's or Neugebauer's, and he'll continue to improve. A sum of PBs around 9000 means you can decently hope to perform a ≃8800 Decathlon. He competed a lot this summer, Budapest is not telling about his abilities. Rooth on the other hand has much less leeway.

[OlympicsFan 860]

https://worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-championships/budapest23/placingtable

 

Really impressive by GB, they almost finished as the 3rd best nation. With the increased pressure on Kenya (doping) and the conflict in Ethiopia i could see them finishing 3rd next year, especially if Asher-Smith gets back into shape. Someone like Ojora could be a wildcard for them, i could see him making the final next year.

 

Number of points GB scored at previous editions:

2022: 68 (5th)

2019: 82 (6th)

2017: 105 (3rd)

2015: 94 (5th)

2013: 86 (7th)

2011: 73 (7th)

2009: 83 (7th)

2007: 63 (6th)

2005: 35 (12th)

2003: 46 (11th)

2001: 58 (8th)

1999: 70 (4th)

1997: 79 (4th)

1995: 77 (4th)

1993: 95 (4th)

1991: 76 (5th)

1987: 88 (4th)

1983: 96 (4th)

 

If we exclude 2017 (home advantage), those were the best world championships ever for GB in terms of points. I also think that those were the tied best world championships ever for GB in terms of the number of medals. The only other time they ever won more than 8 medals was in 1993. At the 2005, 2003 and 2001 world championships they won a combined number of 8 medals.

Edited August 29, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[Mkbw50 438]

The GB performance was really nice all things considered. KJT and Kerr were surprise golds. Hodgkinson may well have been disappointed with silver (Hudson-Smith was a bit too), plus that mixed relay where we won silver because Bol fell over. A really nice bronze for Pattison, Hughes would have been disappointed with only third (a good sign) and three more relay bronzes. Apart from that, in the last relay we came 4th, Hughes also got a 4th place and was right in the hunt, and Morgan Lake was one jump off a medal. Neita is in good form but the women's 200m was really fast, Reekie was also in the medal hunt, Caudery will have been happy with 5th. Muir is capable of better than her 6th, ditto Asher-Smith with her 7th (she's still not back to her best). And Warner-Judd, Snowden and Asher-Smith with the last points in 8th.

 

This is well rounded, the only negative being no field medals (although we did win a title in the combined category). Paris will be much better than Tokyo.

[atlana 3]

  On 8/28/2023 at 4:45 PM, OlympicsFan said:

1) I didn't consider Canada a medal contender because their individual times weren't really good this season. You could say the same about Italy (or Japan/China in the past), so it probably wouldn't have been a shock to see Canada winning a medal. I considered the US, Jamaica and GB the clear favorites, but i guess in the 4 x 100 m relay you shouldn't count on none of the favorites dropping the baton.

2) You are right about Dunfee's medal record in the 20 km event, but i thought that the removal of the 50 km event from the olympic program would lead him to focus more on the 20 km event and becoming better there.

3) I considered the US, Jamaica, the Netherlands, GB and maybe Poland to be (clearly) better in the women's 4 x 400 m relay, but you can't deny the canadian track record. Canada might become the new Poland in this event, based on their individual times they probably shouldn't be as fast as they are, but somehow they are still always in the fight for the medals, which is even more surprising when you take into consideration that changeovers are less crucial in the longer relay.

4) I would honestly shocked if Mayer would win a medal next year. I probably wouldn't even bet on him fininshing the competition. Not even sure if he will qualify (he will have to finish a decathlon before Paris to qualify). For me LePage is probably the biggest favorite ahead of Neugebauer. I would rank the favorites for bronze as follows: Warner (age), Skottheim, Rooth, Garland, Tilga, Victor (age)

I have a lot of trust in the norwegian program. Both of the norwegians focused on the european U23 championships this year, which explains their performance in Budapest. Not sure how likely Moloney is to return at 100 %. I think he hasn't done anything the past 2 years. Neugebauer has horrible technique in multiple events (high jump, pole vault) and is quite heavy, so he might be the most injury prone out of all of them. On the other hand he has a lot of room for improvement if he ever fixes his technique. He could probably gain 100 points alone in high jump and pole vault. Neugebauer might have the problem (unlike LePage and Warner) that he still has to qualify. Germany has multiple guys who could achieve the standard next year, so he will probably have to score higher than them to qualify.

5) The only potential new canadian medal contender (someone who hasn't won a medal before) for me is Sutherland in women's 400 m hurdles, but even for her it will be difficult, given that Bol and McLaughlin seem like locks for 2 of the 3 available medals. Newman in women's pole vault is probably too old to have another big improvement. Anyone else turning into a medal contender would be a shock to me. Of course it doesn't help that athletes like Nettey, Barber or Debues-Stafford flamed out rather quickly.

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Hi, forget Dunfee hopes: Coe has said  that some events would be scrapped if they were not popular. I quote :“We have to make sure that we are investing in events that people really want to watch. There’s still too much assessment and decisions being made on a sort of misplaced nostalgia. When we make those decisions, we have to be able to stand behind the data that says, sadly, some of these are not capturing the imagination.”. I am afraid he's talking about walking events. So, all Spanish gold medals away!!!!

 

[OlympicsFan 860]

Quite surprising stat for me:

Number of top 8 finishes in field events (heptathlon/decathlon excluded):

: 8 (would have been 9 without Hibbert's injury)

: 7

 

Also interesting:

Canada has 5 top 8 finishes in field events (decathlon included):

Katzberg: Gold

LePage: Gold

Warner: Silver

Rogers: Gold

Mitton: Silver

 

All of their top 8 finishers in field events won at least silver.

 

I think Australia and China also have 8 top 8 finishes in field events, don't think that any other country except the US has more top 8 finishes in field events than Jamaica/Australia/China.

Edited August 29, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 860]

  On 8/29/2023 at 3:59 PM, atlana said:

Hi, forget Dunfee hopes: Coe has said  that some events would be scrapped if they were not popular. I quote :“We have to make sure that we are investing in events that people really want to watch. There’s still too much assessment and decisions being made on a sort of misplaced nostalgia. When we make those decisions, we have to be able to stand behind the data that says, sadly, some of these are not capturing the imagination.”. I am afraid he's talking about walking events. So, all Spanish gold medals away!!!!

 

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Would be great if they would get rid of race walking. The 2nd best option would be to turn it into a real sport (where the winner isn't decided by whether judges coincidentally catch someone cheating or not). I don't understand the need for race walking and i don't understand the need for breastroke in swimming. Breastroke swimming is the slowest possible way to swim and is even bad for your spine.

Edited August 29, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[atlana 3]

  On 8/29/2023 at 4:05 PM, OlympicsFan said:

Would be great if they would get rid of race walking. The 2nd best option would be to turn it into a real sport (where the winner isn't decided by whether judges coincidentally catch someone cheating or not). I don't understand the need for race walking and i don't understand the need for breastroke in swimming. Breastroke swimming is the slowest possible way to swim and is even bad for your spine.

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I think is not related to speed (hurdles, steeplechase), or judgement (disqualifications in horizontal jumps or lines in 200 or 400 meters). It is about events with a long history behind, And they are supported by many different countries all over the world: Japan, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Spain, Italy, Sweden...Coincidentally, no one is an English-speaking country.

[OlympicsFan 860]

  On 8/29/2023 at 4:19 PM, atlana said:

I think is not related to speed (hurdles, steeplechase), or judgement (disqualifications in horizontal jumps or lines in 200 or 400 meters). It is about events with a long history behind, And they are supported by many different countries all over the world: Japan, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Spain, Italy, Sweden...Coincidentally, no one is an English-speaking country.

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Not sure what you mean with "supported". Canada and Australia are both pretty good in race walking and both are english-speaking countries as far as i know.

[Monzanator 4,611]

  On 8/29/2023 at 6:02 PM, OlympicsFan said:

Not sure what you mean with "supported". Canada and Australia are both pretty good in race walking and both are english-speaking countries as far as i know.

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Historically Canada was never much good in race walking. It's still a sport dominated by Eastern Europe and Spanish-speaking countries.

 

Australia had some peaks over the years but I don't think WA cares that much about them when it comes to pure business (since the plans to extend the season are purely business-driven).

[NearPup 3,251]

  On 8/29/2023 at 6:02 PM, OlympicsFan said:

Not sure what you mean with "supported". Canada and Australia are both pretty good in race walking and both are english-speaking countries as far as i know.

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Canada is not a race walking nation at all. We had a really good period in the mid 2010s (and Dunfee), but that's an outlier.