Athletics EAA Under 20 European Championships 2019

[Swewi 504]

One year remaining as junior and with focus on long jump with a SB of 6.73, Tilde Johansson wins the 100m hurdles with 13.16! 

[Jinzha 703]

Another young medal winner! 16yo Mark Heiden takes the silver in 110m hurdles!

 

It's far too early to tell who will be succesful in the end, but it will be fun to see this generation of 16-18 year olds develop. Could be a very solid group for the Dutch.

[OlympicsFan 860]

4 hours ago, Jinzha said:

Another young medal winner! 16yo Mark Heiden takes the silver in 110m hurdles!

 

It's far too early to tell who will be succesful in the end, but it will be fun to see this generation of 16-18 year olds develop. Could be a very solid group for the Dutch.

It is too early indeed. In general the results at the U23 european championships are a much better indicator. Statistically between 6 and 7 individual medallists from U20 european championships go on to win individual medals at senior world championships/olympic games, so not very much. My money is on 6 or 7 out of Kokhan, Hunt, Seedo, Johansson, Mahuchikh, Karidi, Van Klinken, Vicente, Sotero, Iapichino, Tzenggo, Gataullina and Hodgkinson.

[OlympicsFan 860]

So far the only championship record broken was the one in men's hammer throw (84.73 by Kokhan), but some athletes were very close to break very old championship records. In the women's 200 m Amy Hunt missed the championship record (22.85 set by Bärbel Eckert in 1973) by only 0.09 (22.94 vs. 22.85) and she probably would have broken it, if it wouldn't have been for a -1.7 m/s headwind. Polina Miller missed Christina Brehmer's record back from 1975 by about half a second (51.72 vs. 51.27). Tilde Johansson missed Olena Ovcharova's 100 m hurdles record back from 1995 by less than a tenth (13.16 vs. 13.09). In women's high jump Mahuchikh missed the record (shared by Kuchina and Yelesina) by 3 cm (1.92 vs. 1.95). Despite a -2.4 m/s headwind during her best attempt Karidi missed the championship record in women's triple jump by only 12 cm (14.00 vs. 14.12, record dates back to 2001). In the men's 400 m Scotti missed Roger Black's record back from 1985 by about half a second (45.85 vs. 45.36), no other record was threatened on the men's side so far. Tomorrow the records in men's 3000 m SC, women's 400 m hurdles, women's pole vault, women's long jump and women's javelin throw could be in danger.

Edited July 20, 2019 by OlympicsFan

[Jinzha 703]

9 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

So far the only championship record broken was the one in men's hammer throw (84.73 by Kokhan), but some athletes were very close to break very old championship records. In the women's 200 m Amy Hunt missed the championship record (22.85 set by Bärbel Eckert in 1973) by only 0.09 (22.94 vs. 22.85) and she probably would have broken it, if it wouldn't have been for a -1.7 m/s headwind. Polina Miller missed Christina Brehmer's record back from 1975 by about half a second (51.72 vs. 51.27). Tilde Johansson missed Olena Ovcharova's 100 m hurdles record back from 1995 by less than a tenth (13.16 vs. 13.09). In women's high jump Mahuchikh missed the record (shared by Kuchina and Yelesina) by 3 cm (1.92 vs. 1.95). Despite a -2.4 m/s headwind during her best attempt Karidi missed the championship record in women's triple jump by only 12 cm (14.00 vs. 14.12, record dates back to 2001). In the men's 400 m Scotti missed Roger Black's record back from 1985 by about half a second (45.85 vs. 45.36), no other record was threatened on the men's side so far. Tomorrow the records in men's 3000 m SC, women's 400 m hurdles, women's pole vault, women's long jump and women's javelin throw could be in danger.

 

Thanks for all your insights in these junior/youth tournaments. How do you keep up to date? Do you have any specific information sources?

 

I've personally been following some of the Dutch 'Talent Teams', so I knew some of the names in this tournament from their good showing in the EYOF 2017 in Gyor. But I find it pretty hard still to place their performances in perspective without knowing their competitors.

[SalamAkhi 359]

Il y a 10 heures, OlympicsFan a dit :

It is too early indeed. In general the results at the U23 european championships are a much better indicator. Statistically between 6 and 7 individual medallists from U20 european championships go on to win individual medals at senior world championships/olympic games, so not very much. My money is on 6 or 7 out of Kokhan, Hunt, Seedo, Johansson, Mahuchikh, Karidi, Van Klinken, Vicente, Sotero, Iapichino, Tzenggo, Gataullina and Hodgkinson.

Nacheva ?

+ it's not really reliable to name athletes who already produce eye-catching performances 

Some now well-known and medaled athletes were pretty anonymous during their own European U20 champs, for example the likes of Teddy Tamgho or Marcin Lewandowski weren't even on the podium, Ohuruogu was 3rd but far from being expected later on with her 54.21 

Edited July 21, 2019 by SalamAkhi

[OlympicsFan 860]

55 minutes ago, SalamAkhi said:

Nacheva ?

She is also a good talent, but didn't improve this year which is very worrying at this age + the greek girl beat her yesterday despite clearly having worse wind.

56 minutes ago, SalamAkhi said:

+ it's not really reliable to name athletes who already produce eye-catching performances

Don't get your point here. What exactly do you mean with reliable? Of course talents that are producing eye-catching performances at such a young age are more likely to be successful at senior level.

58 minutes ago, SalamAkhi said:

Some now well-known and medaled athletes were pretty anonymous during their own European U20 champs, for example the likes of Teddy Tamgho or Marcin Lewandowski weren't even on the podium, Ohuruogu was 3rd but far from being expected later on with her 54.21 

Of course most of the medallists here will never win a medal at senior level, statistically speaking there is a good chance that 6 or 7 medallists will win medals at senior world championships/olympic games in the future. At the same time statistically speaking there is a good chance that 11 or 12 medallists from the U23 european championships will go on to win medals at senior world championships/olympic games, so in general the results at U23 european championships are a better indicator of future success (obviously, since the talents there are closer to senior level age-wise). As far as i know Lewandowski never won a medal at senior world championships/olympic games, so he isn't even included in my statistics, but here are some examples of athletes who won medals at U20 and U23 european championships and then went on to win medals at senior world championships/olympic games:

U20: Hejnova, Ennis, Kszczot, Shubenkov, Spanovic, Thiam, Schippers, Perkovic, Mayer, Lasitskene, Kolak, Warholm, Rutherford

U23: Hejnova, Ennis, Kszczot, Shubenkov, Spanovic, Thiam, Schippers, Stahl, Storl, Fajdek, Stefanidi, Röhler, Gudzius, Farah, Klüft, Harting, Mekhissi

[OlympicsFan 860]

1 hour ago, Jinzha said:

 

Thanks for all your insights in these junior/youth tournaments. How do you keep up to date? Do you have any specific information sources?

 

I've personally been following some of the Dutch 'Talent Teams', so I knew some of the names in this tournament from their good showing in the EYOF 2017 in Gyor. But I find it pretty hard still to place their performances in perspective without knowing their competitors.

Not sure what you really mean ...

I just follow all junior/youth competitions and regularly look at top lists. In order to place their performances in perspective, i look at their progression, their techinque/how much they might profit from superior physicality at this stage and their nations history in producing world class athletes in a certain event. In the end there are only very few talents who are too good to fail, but of course some are more likely to succeed based on the event they compete in. It doesn't take an expert to say that talents who won medals in field events here are far more likely to succeed at senior level than talents who won medals in track events.

[SalamAkhi 359]

il y a 14 minutes, OlympicsFan a dit :

She is also a good talent, but didn't improve this year which is very worrying at this age + the greek girl beat her yesterday despite clearly having worse wind.

 

Meh very poor argument there

 

 

Citation

Of course most of the medallists here will never win a medal at senior level, statistically speaking there is a good chance that 6 or 7 medallists will win medals at senior world championships/olympic games in the future. At the same time statistically speaking there is a good chance that 11 or 12 medallists from the U23 european championships will go on to win medals at senior world championships/olympic games, so in general the results at U23 european championships are a better indicator of future success (obviously, since the talents there are closer to senior level age-wise). As far as i know Lewandowski never won a medal at senior world championships/olympic games, so he isn't even included in my statistics, but here are some examples of athletes who won medals at U20 and U23 european championships and then went on to win medals at senior world championships/olympic games:

U20: Hejnova, Ennis, Kszczot, Shubenkov, Spanovic, Thiam, Schippers, Perkovic, Mayer, Lasitskene, Kolak, Warholm, Rutherford

U23: Hejnova, Ennis, Kszczot, Shubenkov, Spanovic, Thiam, Schippers, Stahl, Storl, Fajdek, Stefanidi, Röhler, Gudzius, Farah, Klüft, Harting, Mekhissi

 

That's true but you're eluding the point. I'm not denying the chances of seeing junior medalists repeat at senior level, but you're saying that future successful senior athletes are included in a pool of already successful juniors. We know that at least a strong minority of the names you listed will fade, but we also know some anonymous athletes during these championships will appear on the big stage, that's all 

Edited July 21, 2019 by SalamAkhi

[hckošice 16,598]

Bronze medal for Matej Baluch in 400h with a new pb 51.26 Congrats