How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2019 version)

[Vektor 3,195]

Let's try to do this after the Canoe WCh...

 

I want us to win at least 15, like in Rio.

 

Swimming - 5-7 medals (2 for Hosszú, 1 for Milák, 1 for Verrasztó, 1 for Kapás, 1 for Késely, 1 for Rasovszky)

Canoe Sprint - 5-6 medals (MK1 1000m, MK4 500m, WK1 500m, WK2 500m, WK4 500m, WC2 500m)

Fencing - 1-3 medals (Hungarian men's sabre is strong right now, plus we can also surprise in the other disciplines, like at this year's WCh)

Athletics - 1-2 medals (Men's Hammer Throw, Women's Shot Put)

Shooting - 1 medal (Péni, Major or Sidi, please, it really is time of us to win a medal for the first time since Athens)

Sailing - 0-1 medal (Berecz or Érdi)

Water polo - 0-1 medal (lol, if we don't win a medal again for the third time in a row)

Wrestling - 0-1 medal (Hungarian wrestlers almost always find a way to win at least one medal)

Modern pentatlon - 0-1 medal (there's always a chance for a medal here)

 

Overall: 13-23 medals

 

Okay, 23 medals would be absolutely crazy, best since Barcelona, and literally everything would have to be perfect. So I would go with a nice 15 medals prediction, and hope that we won't repeat the Beijing performance.

[nitinsanker 179]

On 02/07/2019 at 19:10, Fly_like_a_don said:

Here are the  Indian predictions

 

India is one of the more unpredictable nations in sports, that can have a pretty dissapointing to a somewhat decent performance. 

 

Shooting :

Women's 10m Air Rifle : 1-2 

Men's 10m Air Pistol : 1 

Women's 10m Air /25 m pistol : 0-1

Mixed 10m Air Rifle :1-2 

Mixed 10m Air Pistol :1 

 

Boxing :

Men's 48-52 kg : 1

Women's boxing :0-1

*Depends on judging 

 

Weightlifting 

Women's 49kg :1

 

Hockey 

0 - 0

Absolutely no chance 

 

Badminton 

Women's Singles : 0-1

It is strange but could be zero, current form is way too poor. So getting a Chinese /Japanese /Taipei /Thai player in quarters won't help. 

 

Archery 

0 - 0

Not great archers in big televised events. 

 

Athletics 

0- 0

Javelin Throw : PB is 88 odd metres, outside chance with some luck 

 

Archery /Athletics /TT combined : 0-1

 

Table Tennis 

0-0

Men's Team and Mixed Doubles are not that bad, qualifying won't be easy, quarters would be more than good

 

Wrestling 1-2

Men's 65 kg - Bajrang

Women's 50 kg - Vinesh *

* Competing in 53 kg never a medal contender, current asian games champion in 50 kg so should be favorite if comes back to 50kg. Else No

 

 

Total : 7-14

Predicted : 7

Optimistic  : 14

 

Fact : Most of the medal winning events are on the very first day of action at the games (3 /7), including  what is the most important event for India at the 2020 Olympics - The Women's 10m Air Rifle. This is the strongest individual event India has ever had from the last 1 year or so and interestingly this is the 1st medal event of games. Apurvi Chandela has not gone beyond 4th position in any event in last 1.5 years, 2 titles at world cup this year. Anjum Moudgil is a air rifle mixed sepcialist i should say. She's unbeatable in new format with Divynash this year. She was a 50m3P specialist earlier too. 

   On the first day we even have weightlifting and 10m air pistol men where Saurabh Chaudhary is unbeaten for a year in the event. 

   

 

 

 

If things go wrong on 1st day, no more than 3 medals at Tokyo 2020. 

 

 

 

 

 

Actually i would be a little more optimistic in both boxing and wrestling ...... i feel we have many other good wrestlers coming deepak punia in 86 ( ranked 4th ) , some of the women like pooja , divya and seema ( ranked 3rd ) are all prospects so 2-3 in wrestling and in boxing we currently have 3 world medalists in olympic category so i feel 2-4 in boxing is likely - mary , lovlina , neeraj , pooja etc are all good prospects and in men amit , gaurav , shiva etc so i feel 1+2 seems likely ..... but shooting 5 i feel is unlikely and i think 3-4 is likely apurvi and saurabh are the most likely ...... men’s badminton singles may be 0-1 ...... my most likely is 9 but with max of 15 ...... min of 6 

Edited August 26, 2019 by nitinsanker

[Siddhartha Talukdar 125]

India's realistic medal events are

Badminton Women's Singles - The World Championships showed how ruthless PV Sindhu can be. The only player who can beat her is Tai Tzu Ying. If she gets a draw where she avoids Tai till the semis then a medal is assured

 

Men's Javelin Throw - Depends on Neeraj Chopra's rehabilitation and recovery. The upcoming IAAF World Championships could be an indicator

 

Boxing - 1 or 2 medals minimum. Mary Kom, Lovlina , Amit Phangal are genuine hopes

 

Shooting - 3 to 5 medals. Saurabh Chaudhary in 10m AIr Pistol, Apurvi and Anjum in 10m Air Rifle, Manu Bhaker in 25m Pistol, Mixed team in both Pistol and Rifle

 

Weightlifting - 1 medal, Mirabai Chanu in in Women 49kg

 

Wresting - 2 to 3 medals, Bajrang Punia in M 65kg, Seema Tomar in W 50kg, Vinesh Phogat in W 53,  

 

More optimistic hopes

Badminton Men's Singles - Barring Kento Momota, anyone can beat anyone on the day. Kidambi needs his form and confidence back

 

Badminton Women's Singles - Saina Nehwal is still good enough and this probably will be her last Olymics

 

Men's Field Hockey - The top 4 teams are too good. Need luck on the day

 

So overall expecting in the range of 8-12 medals

[Kaileena 1]

21 godzin temu, OlympicsFan napisał:

10 medals in athletics? Absolutely don't see that happening. 5-6 medals seems realistic. 2 x men's hammer throw, women's hammer throw, men's pole vault + 2 out of shot put (Walsh, the american guy, Romani are all bigger favorites)/women's hammer throw (the chinese girls, the american girls and Tavernier are all bigger favorites for silver/bronze)/men's 800 (super competitive)/men's 1500 (super competitive)/women's 4 x 400 (USA and Jamaica should be clearly better and GB is pretty much on the same level). 4 medals in rowing also seems rather optimistic, but who knows ... ? Why didn't you mention volleyball, shooting, wrestling or track cycling?

Kopron is young and at the progression can throw 76 meters in a year. That should give medal. Tomasz Majewski believes that Haratyk can afford to push around 22.70. Yes, there is a lot of competition in running, but with a good pace Lewandowski and Kszczot can afford a medal. The Polish relay is now definitely stronger than the British. Just look at the recent starts on HME, ME or DME. The British are not such a relay as they used to be, and the Polish women along with the coach announce that they want to really fight with Jamaica and the Americans.
In volleyball, we've been dropping in the IO quarter-finals lately. Shooting is lottery, as is track cycling. Faster than in track, it is in the mountainous opportunities that Włoszczowska and the ladies on the road Niewiadoma. Maybe Kwiatkowski?

[OlympicsFan 783]

26 minutes ago, Kaileena said:

Kopron is young and at the progression can throw 76 meters in a year. That should give medal. Tomasz Majewski believes that Haratyk can afford to push around 22.70. Yes, there is a lot of competition in running, but with a good pace Lewandowski and Kszczot can afford a medal. The Polish relay is now definitely stronger than the British. Just look at the recent starts on HME, ME or DME. The British are not such a relay as they used to be, and the Polish women along with the coach announce that they want to really fight with Jamaica and the Americans.
In volleyball, we've been dropping in the IO quarter-finals lately. Shooting is lottery, as is track cycling. Faster than in track, it is in the mountainous opportunities that Włoszczowska and the ladies on the road Niewiadoma. Maybe Kwiatkowski?

Of course all of those athletes have a medal chance, it is just EXTREMELY unlikely that all of them win medals at the same time. I would bet you that Poland will be closer to 6 medals than to 10 medals. Saying that Poland can win 10 medals is like saying that Germany can win 11 medals, because Germany has that many medal chances (men's decathlon, 3 x men's javelin, men's 20 km race walking, women's 4 x 100 m relay, women's 5000 m, women's long jump, women's heptathlon, women's shot put, women's javelin throw). In reality i would be happy with 6-8 medals (2 x men's javelin, men's decathlon, women's long jump, women's javelin throw, women's shot put + maybe women's 4 x 100 m relay and/or women's 5000 m).

 

About the women's 4 x 400 m relay: On aggregate Poland is 0.57 seconds faster than GB (not much over 4 legs) and 3.23 seconds/3.73 seconds slower than Jamaica/USA. Unless a miracle happens or one out of Jamaica/USA drops the baton, bronze will be the best possible result for Poland. Even beating GB will be hard enough considering that on average the british relay is 4.25 years younger than the polish relay and therefore is more likely to improve until next year.

 

Here are the 4 fastest polish/british runners in comparison with their birth years:

Nielsen 50.83 (1996) vs. Swiety-Ersetic 50.85 (1992)

Williams 51.22 (1993) vs. Baumgart-Witan 51.12 (1989)

Diamond 51.69 (1991) vs. Kielbasinska 51.51 (1990)

Anning 52.18 (2000) vs. Holub-Kowalik 51.87 (1992)

Also the 5th and 6th fastest british girls are at 52.18 and 52.21, while the 5th fastest polish girl is at 52.34, so if one of your top 4 gets injured, you will be in trouble.

 

In addition to that there are 2 other nations that are very close to Poland: Russia (if they are allowed to compete) and Canada

The top 4 russian girls are at 51.00, 51.25, 51.75 and 51.88, so on aggregate Russia is only 0.53 seconds slower over 4 legs + the 7th fastest russian girl is still at 52.40, while the 5th fastest polish girl is at 52.34, so Russia has clearly more depth. The top 4 canadian girls are at 51.22, 51.56, 51.63 and 51.73, so on aggregate they are only 0.78 seconds slower than the polish girls, while being 5.5 years younger than the polish girls on average. In addition to that the 7th fastest canadian girl is still at 52.43, so Canada also has a clearly better depth than Poland.

 

In my opinion it is pretty clear that the fight for the medals in Tokyo will look like this:

Gold/silver: USA and Jamaica (very hard to predict)

Bronze: Poland, Russia (if they are allowed to compete), Canada and GB (impossible to predict)

Edited August 26, 2019 by OlympicsFan

[Kaileena 1]

26 minut temu, OlympicsFan napisał:

Of course all of those athletes have a medal chance, it is just EXTREMELY unlikely that all of them win medals at the same time. I would bet you that Poland will be closer to 6 medals than to 10 medals. Saying that Poland can win 10 medals is like saying that Germany can win 11 medals, because Germany has that many medal chances (men's decathlon, 3 x men's javelin, men's 20 km race walking, women's 4 x 100 m relay, women's 5000 m, women's long jump, women's heptathlon, women's shot put, women's javelin throw). In reality i would be happy with 6-8 medals (2 x men's javelin, men's decathlon, women's long jump, women's javelin throw, women's shot put + maybe women's 4 x 100 m relay and/or women's 5000 m).

 

 

Poland has more medal opportunities, because Wojciechowski, Bukowiecki or even Małachowski can also be considered as chances. Of course, you are more likely to win 5-6 medals than 10, but these 10 are not impossible.

 

38 minut temu, OlympicsFan napisał:

About the women's 4 x 400 m relay: On aggregate Poland is 0.57 seconds faster than GB (not much over 4 legs) and 3.23 seconds/3.73 seconds slower than Jamaica/USA. Unless a miracle happens or one out of Jamaica/USA drops the baton, bronze will be the best possible result for Poland. Even beating GB will be hard enough considering that on average the british relay is 4.25 years younger than the polish relay and therefore is more likely to improve until next year.

 

 

Poland has more medal opportunities, because Wojciechowski, Bukowiecki or even Małachowski can also be considered as chances. Of course, you are more likely to win 5-6 medals than 10, but these 10 are not impossible.They are younger, but that does not mean that they will be better in a moment. We have the European champion U23. Polish women are a strong team, the trainer himself emphasizes that he has 7 players at a high level, so there are facilities. Polish women have not yet reached the peak this season and if you compare something, they are life records. In addition, from year to year Justyna, Iga and Gosia are improving. Ola Gaworska, who was injured, is back and is a young player. Patrycja ran great during World Relays. She should go back to running fast in Qatar. And her PB is very good. Ania only recently runs 400 meters. The Greek woman who won silver during the 2018 European Championships also ran 200 m earlier. Her life records at 100 and 200 m are similar to those of Kiełbasińska. This year, it has already improved PB significantly, and it will be even better. Polish women also have Justyna, who has one of the best finishes in the world. The relay has its own rules. Changes, tactics etc. have such a big impact that we can fight hard.The sum of our PBs gives a time of 3: 24.22. They always run faster in the relay. Polish women will be ready to run around 3:22. And for the year faster. The sum of PB of the best in the year Brytyjek is over a second worse.

[ManuCHIL 102]

For Chile should be between 0 and 0

 

But I will be optimistic: (Crazy optimistic) 

 

canoeing: 1 

Karate: 1 

Gymanistic: 1 

Shooting: 1 

Weighlifting: 2

Wrestling: 1

 

Total: 7 (Of any color xD)

 

Reality: I think If we achieve more top8 than in rio 2016 would be perfect!. Our other objective is to be competitive at team sports, and qualify with at least one team (Handball, football volleyball men, and football or hockey in women), something that We can sense as we are apearing more often at pre olympic tournaments!

 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Manulete

[pdr4332 149]

On 26/08/2019 at 00:11, Vektor said:

Let's try to do this after the Canoe WCh...

 

I want us to win at least 15, like in Rio.

 

Swimming - 5-7 medals (2 for Hosszú, 1 for Milák, 1 for Verrasztó, 1 for Kapás, 1 for Késely, 1 for Rasovszky)

Canoe Sprint - 5-6 medals (MK1 1000m, MK4 500m, WK1 500m, WK2 500m, WK4 500m, WC2 500m)

Fencing - 1-3 medals (Hungarian men's sabre is strong right now, plus we can also surprise in the other disciplines, like at this year's WCh)

Athletics - 1-2 medals (Men's Hammer Throw, Women's Shot Put)

Shooting - 1 medal (Péni, Major or Sidi, please, it really is time of us to win a medal for the first time since Athens)

Sailing - 0-1 medal (Berecz or Érdi)

Water polo - 0-1 medal (lol, if we don't win a medal again for the third time in a row)

Wrestling - 0-1 medal (Hungarian wrestlers almost always find a way to win at least one medal)

Modern pentatlon - 0-1 medal (there's always a chance for a medal here)

 

Overall: 13-23 medals

 

Okay, 23 medals would be absolutely crazy, best since Barcelona, and literally everything would have to be perfect. So I would go with a nice 15 medals prediction, and hope that we won't repeat the Beijing performance.

 

How many golds out of that? In my book, around  5-7 (canoe/kayak 2-3, swimming  2-3, fencing 0-2, plus any surprises or other sports I'm not familiar with - such as I don't know how strong the mentioned ppl are in Sailing)

All in all I think what the HOC person (secretary general or whatever) said the other day is more or less accurate : less golds than Rio and London but more than Beijing

[Vektor 3,195]

8 hours ago, dharang said:

 

How many golds out of that? In my book, around  5-7 (canoe/kayak 2-3, swimming  2-3, fencing 0-2, plus any surprises or other sports I'm not familiar with - such as I don't know how strong the mentioned ppl are in Sailing)

All in all I think what the HOC person (secretary general or whatever) said the other day is more or less accurate : less golds than Rio and London but more than Beijing

 

I would go with 5. 2 in swimming, 2 in canoe, 1 in something else (Berecz, somebody in fencing, somebody in shooting). 

[Kaileena 1]

Dnia 26.08.2019 o 00:11, Vektor napisał:

Canoe Sprint - 5-6 medals (MK1 1000m, MK4 500m, WK1 500m, WK2 500m, WK4 500m, WC2 500m)

 

 

Looking at the ladies kayaks, because especially these are important in Poland, you are definitely the favorites among the four women. In W2 500 m candidates for the podium should be: Belarus, Poland and Hungary. New Zealand is strong, but only when Lisa swims . And this one is unlikely to be able to sail 4 races in a short time one day, because SF and finals in K1 200 m and K2 500 m are next to each other. The Germans were terrible at the World Championships, they should not be a threat. In fours I hope that the podium will be like in K2 500 m, because Polish women are a young team and are able to beat NZL or Belarus. I'm the most curious single races. Lisa won in both at the World Championships. In the sprint next year she should also win 100%. Walczykiewicz will be ready to fight for silver. Dora Lucz may still aspire to bronze, she is developing strongly. I am curious about the Kozak attitude for the year because it looked quite hard here (for her). I wonder if the best is behind her or if she can still win the medal in the one. Young girls, i.e.Jorgensen and Puławska, can fight hard in K1 500. You have a good chance in C2 500 m ladies. Maybe even for gold.