[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 9 Stunden schrieb rafalgorka:

Athletics Men

 

100 - Noah Lyles USA

200 - Noah Lyles USA

400 - Wayde van Niekerk RSA

800 - ADAM KSZCZOT POL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-) why not have a dream? my favourite Polish athlete (from those who are competing right now), BTW

1500 - somebody from KEN

5000 - somebody from ETH

10000 - somebody from ETH

marathon - somebody from ETH

3000 SC - somebody from KEN

110 hurdles - Sergey Shubenkov RUSSIA, not some without country individual but RUSSIA

400 hurdles - Abderrahman Samba QAT - 0.01 sec before Rai Benjamin ANT both with under the Kevin Young WR - the race of the games

High Jump - Mutaz Essa Barshim QAT - why not have a dream hahaha? my favourite athlete (from those who are competing right now) from all over the world BTW

Pole Vault - Sam Kendricks USA

Long Jump - Luvo Manyonga RSA

Triple Jump - Pedro Pablo Pichardo POR - anyone knows if there is a chance he will be allowed to compete for Portugal?

Shot Put - Tom Walsh NZL

Discus Throw - Andrius Gudzius LTU

Hammer Throw - Wojciech Nowicki POL

Javelin Throw - Johannes Vetter GER

Decathlon - Damian Warner  CAN

Race Walk 20km - somebody from JPN

Race Walk 50km - Matej Toth SVK

4x100 - USA

4x400 - USA

 

I would only consider Lyles (200 m), Van Niekerk, Barshim, Samba and maybe Toth/Shubenkov big favorites. I am a bit surprised about your picks in mens 100 m (What has Lyles shown to justify being called the top favorite there?), mens 800 m, mens pole vault (what about Lavillenie and Duplantis?), mens long jump (what about Echevarria?), mens triple jump (what about Taylor?), mens shot put (what about the american guys?), mens discus throw (what about Harting, Stahl and Dacres?), mens javelin throw (what about Röhler and Hofmann?), decathlon (what about Mayer?) and hammer throw (a lot of new talents from Hungary/Ukraine + Fajdek + Pronkin).

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 5 Stunden schrieb rafalgorka:

Athletics - Women

 

100 - Marie-Josee Ta Lou CIV

200 - Sherika Jackson JAM

400 - Shaunae Miller-Uibo BAH

800 - Ajee Wilson USA

1500 - Genzebe Dibaba ETH

5000 - somebody from KEN

10000 - somebody from KEN

marathon - somebody from KEN

3000 sc - Beatrice Chipkoech KEN

100 hurdles - Kendra Harrison USA

400 hurdles - Sydney McLaughlin USA

high jump - Mariya Lasitskene RUS

pole vault - Sandi Morris USA

long jump - Ivana Spanovic SRB

triple jump - Caterine Ibarguen COL

shot put - Lijiao Gong CHN

discus throw - Sandra Perkovic CRO

hammer throw - Anita Włodarczyk POL

javelin throw - Huihui Lyu CHN

heptathlon - Nafissatou Thiam BEL

race walk 20 km - somebody from CHN

4x100 - USA

4x400 - USA

For me the only really big favorites among those are:

Lasitskene, Perkovic, Woldarczyk, Thiam and maybe Chepkoech. I dont think you can just name "someone from Kenya" as favorite, you have to name a certain athlete and personally i wouldnt name relays or teams, but if i would, the american 4 x 400 relays would certainly be among the biggest favorites.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 25 Minuten schrieb rafalgorka:

Probably so. But not so sure. If Russians are coming in the full squad, there may be someone new. And US women are big contenders this season. We will be able to say more after Doha.

Russians: I dont see anyone who could reach 80 m + i dont think they will be back by then.

Americans: I dont think they can throw 78 m at a major competition + i hope that they will be caught sooner than later.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 2 Stunden schrieb phelps:

 

32 at the end of the games (late August)...

in London she clearly missed out on the entire meet (she was swinging from Lucas and our federal site in Verona...and obviously she was caught in between the war those 2 were making)...and still she was 5th in the 200m...

in Rio she ended up 4th despite she had very big "period" troubles just a short time before the final...had she been not so unlucky, she would have been there with Ledecky and Sjostrom until the last stroke for sure...

remember..."never underestimate the heart of a champion" (cit.)...

p.s. looking at how she reacted (and how she started the season, with a world record so early last Winter), last year Ledecky was more than annoyed by the only defeat of her career since London 2012...

 

p.p.s. I just read an interview with Niccolò Campriani...and he says he's not excluding at 100% his comeback (I guess he's being put under heavy, heavy pressure by our NOC...and actually I also think he's too young to really retire from such discipline like shooting -he normally was one of the youngest starters in all the finals he's done in his life)...

if this comeback will really happen, it would increase our medal chance at least by 3 (his 2 individual events + the mixed air rifle competition with his fiancèe -wife? I don't know if they got married in the meantime or not- Petra Zublasing)...

because if he's coming back, he's gonna be the main favourite in all these events, I think...

Since the introduction of womens 200 free into the olympics (1968) no woman older than 27 has won a medal in this event, so it would be really something for Pellegrini to win a medal at 32.

About Campriani: I agree that he is too young, the same is true for Henri Junghänel and in my opinion also Barbara Engleder, but they owe nothing to the federation and can determine on their own how they want to lead their life. I am not sure whether he will be the favorite just like that, he certainly will need some time to get back to his old level, but if he gets there, he will certainly be among the favorites.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 2 Stunden schrieb rafalgorka:

Would you put somebody from Poland in this thread? I'm curious

Wlodarczyk?

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 2 Stunden schrieb rafalgorka:

Oh, this was amazing swim by Kathleen Baker last night! I watched it on YT few times already. Hats off! This duel - Baker and Masse - with some young breakthrough from JPN may be one of he best races in Tokyo IMO

Also dont sleep on Regan Smith, Taylor Ruck and the australian girls + i dont know how well Fu Yuanhui is doing currently, might be the only swimming event without any europeans in the final (sadly).

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 3 Stunden schrieb heywoodu:

But I think you slightly misunderstood the question  

 

The 'goal' is to discuss about the athletes (or teams) with the biggest chance to win a certain event. I mean, sure Barshim and Samba and Manyonga have real chances to win gold, but they're not athletes in an event where one could say 'He basically can't lose!' (Samba can trip over a hurdle, high jump and long jump are rather sensitive for foul jumps). Different than for example a rowing event where a certain boat is absolutely dominant, it's not like it's realistic for this boat to suddenly sink in the Olympic final  

Have you ever rowed in Japan? No? Then how would you know whether its realistic for a boat to sink in an olympic final or not?

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 3 Stunden schrieb EselTheDonkey:

 

Hilbig is too young to have a realistic chance to qualify for Tokyo. He's only 16 right now and hasn't even competed with the heavier hammer. He's a candidate for Paris 2024.

Maybe not a "realistic" chance, but i wouldnt say its impossible. Kokhan who is one year older than Hilbig threw 74.74 m with the 5 kg hammer 2 years ago (which is basically where Hilbig is now), 1 year later he threw 71.42 m with the 7.26 kg hammer. If the entry standard will be at 74-75 m, then Hilbig might have a small chance. Of course Mikhailov is more likely to make it, hopefully he can recover from this rather bad season.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 15 Stunden schrieb Joshi:

From a NZ point of view. Lisa Carrington K1 200m. Hasn't been beaten in this event since the heats at the 2012 Olympics but won when it counted. Looking beyond NZ I don't think you can go past the US men and womens Basketball teams. They could send US D teams and still win.

Of course USA in basketball is the biggest favorite, but saying that they could win with a D team on the mens side is probably a bit exaggerated.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 18 Stunden schrieb intoronto:

Canada has 0 biggest gold medal faves

 

The closest would probably be Kylie Masse in the women's 100m backstroke.

Aaaand its gone ...

Maybe we will lead a completely different conversation next year, depending on how the canadian talents in womens freestyle develop.

Edited July 29, 2018 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 20 Stunden schrieb Майкл:

Adam Peaty in breaststroke events

He is absolutely hopeless in the 200 breast and i think the 50 breast still isnt olympic, but i agree about 100 breast.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 20 Stunden schrieb phelps:

 

why not in the 400m and 800m, too? (I don't put the 200m in this list, because Pellegrini could come back and make her cry once again )...

How old will Pellegrine be by then? Must be around 40. I think not winning her 40th gold medal at world championships by losing to Pellegrini wasnt something that gave Ledecky nightmares. Where exactly was Pellegrini at the last two olympics?

Edited July 29, 2018 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 20 Stunden schrieb CCB:

Primoz Roglic in the individual time trial (men).

Annemiek van Vleuten in the individual time trial (women).

Japan baseball (men).

Netherlands hockey (women).

Thats (Roglic in mens TT) is exactly the kind of prediction i was thinking about. Lets see what he will do in 2 years.

[OlympicsFan 791]

Am 28.7.2018 um 09:54 schrieb heywoodu:

After this idea by @OlympicsFan, here we go, a thread to discuss the biggest favourites for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. It's more or less two years to go until the Olympics, a nice moment for a bit of fun discussion about who right now you would consider to be the biggest gold medal favourites for Tokyo.

Thanks for opening this thread, although it developed a bit different than expected. I only thought about individual events. Something like "Caeleb Dressel is one of the biggest favorites in mens 100 free, because he won the gold medal at the world championships last year by 0.7 seconds and he will only improve given his age" and then in 2 years we might see him not even making the team ... or: "Caster Semenya in womens 800 m is one of the biggest favorites, she hasnt lost a race in 10 years, so she will definitly win the gold medal in Tokyo" just to see her completly disappearing after the new rules kick in. If we talk about team sports, then of course USA in basketball is the biggest favorite.

Edited July 29, 2018 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 791]

Am 26.7.2018 um 19:28 schrieb EselTheDonkey:

 

About Fencing: I am slightly more optimistic, because this time there will be team events for all weapons. Men's sabre and Women's foil at the very least have a good chance to qualify, which would make already six competitors. And three more individual athletes seems possible, IMO.

 

As I said, I really don't know about sailing (Sailing bores me, to be honest). I was just guessing based on the last few Olympics. Therefore I certainly won't contradict you.

 

Yeah, I was probably a bit too optimistisc at Judo, but everything under 10 competitors would seriously disappoint me.

 

And I avoided a specific number on purpose.  But I think it will be less starters than in Rio, unless we qualify in a lot of team sports. The National Athletics and Swimming Federations will probably be much less generous, to begin with.

Swimming: In 2016 Germany had 29 athletes in swimming, i think it will be about the same this time. Lambertz sadly always wants to nominate relays, so there you already have about 20 athletes, if you add open water, you are at 24-25 and then we have athletes like Köhler, Wellbrock, Hentke, Heintz who are probably gonna make it too.

Athletics: I was surprised to see that Germany had 85 athletes in 2016, my surprise probably came from the fact that many of those athletes didnt even make it past the first round and i therefore didnt really notice them. I think it would be better to send 60-70 athletes who mostly have a realistic chance of at least finishing top 12. For example i am not sure whether it would really make sense to nominate any male runners (maybe except for Traber) or any athletes in marathon (maybe except for Melat Yisak Kejeta, if she will be allowed to compete for Germany). One of the most interesting questions for me currently is whether Germany will qualify someone in hammer throw. I hope that one of the talents (Fromm on the womens side, Mikhailov/Hilbig on the mens side) breaks through, but the entry standards are probably gonna be insane again in field events, so i dont really have much hope.

 

 

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 53 Minuten schrieb EselTheDonkey:

 

Teams in Equestrian will only consist out of three athletes in Tokyo. It's highly annoying, especially in Eventing.

Its a scandal, nothing else. Imagine if federations would only be allowed to nominate 4 athletes for relays in swimming or athletics. Anyone who says that this has been done to have less athletes at the game must be stupid, IOC did it to make for less predictable outcomes, which is an even bigger scandal. They probably got tired of the german dominance in eventing and dressage so they tried to find a way of ending it.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 5 Stunden schrieb EselTheDonkey:

Archery: 4 (Women's Team and one man. Though it isn't impossible that men's Team will qualify as well)

Artistic Swimming: 0

Athletics: Maybe About 60

Badminton: 4 to 6

Baseball: 0

Basketball: Maaaaybe the men's team

Beach Volleyball: 6 (to female Teams and one male)

Boxing: No idea. 6 Maybe?

Canoeing - Slalom: A starter in all Events. Makes 5.

Canoeing - Sprint: Again, a boat in each category

Cycling - BMX: 1

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 4

Cycling - Road: 7 or 8

Cycling - Track: 13

Diving: 8 to 10

Equestrian: 9

Fencing: 9

Field Hockey: Both teams

Football: At least one Team, hopefully

Golf: 4

Gymnastics - Artistic: 8 to 10

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Women's Group and one individual athlete

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 1, maybe

Handball: Hopefully both Teams. But 1 Team is probably more realistic.

Judo: 12-14

Karate: No idea

Modern Pentathlon: 3-4

Rowing: I hope for all of the boats

Rugby Sevens: The men's Team has a tiny chance

Sailing: Most boats, because we Always do. I really don't know enough About sailing to be more precise

Shooting: About 20

Skateboarding: Probably none

Softball: No chance

Sport Climbing: 2 or 3

Surfing: 0

Swimming: 20-30

Table Tennis: Both teams

Taekwondo: 3 to 5

Tennis: 5 to 7

Triathlon: 4 to 6

Volleyball: Both Teams have a chance to qualify, though it won't be easy for either.

Water Polo: 0

Weightlifting: 4 to 6

Wrestling: About 6  

Athletics: My current prediction is 63, so it should be something between 60 and 70.

Basketball: I think the men's team has a good chance, i would say only Spain, Serbia and France are stronger. Lithuania, Latvia, Greece, Turkey, Italy, Slovenia are all about on the same level at best.

Boxing: I think 6 is too optimistic. On the womens side i would say only Apetz has a chance and on the mens side there are 5 guys with a chance, but only if you count Harutyunyan who became a pro last year. My guess would be 3-4 (Apetz, Baraou, Ibrahim and maybe Harutyunyan).

Fencing: I dont see Germany qualifying 9 athletes. I think 6 or 7 would be the best possible outcome.

Football: I think the mens team will struggle to say the least, the guys born in 1997 or later are very weak.

Judo: 12-14 is definitely too optimistic in my opinion, i think 8 would be good.

Rowing: The situation is pretty promising, but i for example dont see Germany qualifiying a boat in womens eight.

Sailing: I think you are too optimistic, but lets see, my guess would be 4-6 boats (Buhl, Jurczok/Lorenz and 2 out of the remaining categories).

Taekwondo: I think 3 would be very good given the current situation.

Volleyball: I think no team qualifying is definitely more realistic than both qualifying. I think the mens team is clearly stronger, but they have a more difficult path to qualify.

 

So what would be your conclusion? How many german athletes realistically in Tokyo? Will it be a bigger team than in Rio (athletes in new sports excluded)?

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 14 Stunden schrieb intoronto:

That's like asking why is canoe slalom anywhere near the Olympic program? Finally a team sport that is not centred in Europe!

I would say its rather like asking why womens ice hockey is at the olympics. Besides that i dont see how rugby, basketball, field hockey or even volleyball can be called euro-centric. The same is true for curling and ice hockey at the winter olympics.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 3 Stunden schrieb EselTheDonkey:

Germany's chances, IMO:

 

Field Hockey M. 85%

Field Hockey W: 80%

Football W: 60%

Handball M: 60%

Football M: 45%

Volleyball W: 35%

Handball W: 25% 

Volleyball M: 20% (after the World Championships, they will lose many points in the World Ranking. So their only chance is probably the European Qualifier)

Basketball M: 15%

Rugby M: 15%

Water Polo M: 10%

Baseball: 5%

Water Polo W: 5%

Rugby W: 0%

Basketball W: 0%

Softball: 0% 

I would say (i know in reality there is always a chance ... ):

Water polo m/w 0 %

Rugby m/w 0 %

Softball/baseball 0 %

Basketball w 0 %

Hockey m/w > 90 %

Football w > 70 %

Handball m, football m ≈ 50 %

Basketball m*, handball w, volleyball m/w ≈ 25 %

Realistic case: Hockey m/w, football w, handball m, basketball m

 

*We shouldn't forget that by the start of next season Germany might have the 2nd most NBA players of all european nations, tied with Spain and only behind France.

Edited July 1, 2018 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 791]

Am 8.3.2018 um 21:08 schrieb phelps:

 

in my opinion...

 

1) because that's more or less the average level of our Olympic sports (in these last 15/20 years we've always had about the same number of people practicing high level sport and the same overall budget, so it's quite logical to have a "regular" standard of performance in both quality and quantity)...

and until we can find a Phelps or Scherbo, who could bring us on a higher level by winning 4/5 gold medals as an individual, it's difficult to change this trend (unless we suddenly convert our usual 50/60 medal chances with a not realistic percentage...or, on the other side, unless we're so unlucky to get less than 40/50% out of our chances)...

 

2) because we have a good number of chances in many sports (apart from Campriani, most of our medallists fro Rio will be back in Tokyo and some of our most promisinig youngsters have been constantly improving since then) and because the new events (2 more fencing competitions, the swimming men's 800m and women's 1500m and 8 karate weight classes just to mention those where we have already got continental and/or world medals in the last few years) will give us at least 10/12 shots more than the previous Games...

1) If the number of people practicing hig level sport and the overall budget remained the same, than it wouldn't be logical that the number of italian medals stays at the same level over the years. GB, Japan, China and some eastern european countries invested more and more money over the last decade or so and globally the number of people who were able to practice certain sports constantly increased, so with the same money you should get less medals nowadays, of course this doesn't take the new events into consideration.

2) Makes sense, i didn't know that Italy was so good in karate and to be honest i don't care about those new sports. I think Italy should win 2 more medals in fencing, 1-2 more medals in shooting/archery and at least 1 more medal in swimming (although i don't see Quadarella winning a medal at the olympics), so this should easily be enough for at least 30 medals, although i am not sure whether 10-12 golds are a lock (Again: I don't know how good Italy is in karate, are there any safe italian golds in karate?).

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 18 Stunden schrieb JoshMartini007:

 

1) A combination of things. Some events did not have a top tier championship/ranking. Some events had too many athletes from the same nation, for example, China had 5 quarter-finalists in women's singles table tennis, but only two were actually counted, leaving the rest as blanks. Weightlifting is also missing a bunch of spots in anticipation that the banned nations will return (I was still very generous with the results, Mexico is looking at a potential of two medals).

 

2) Basically the formula thinks the United States has overperformed while Canada has underperformed in 2017. From a medals perspective Canada had a pretty bad year, but from an overall picture Canada did pretty well. Athletics is a good example, 0 medals, yet 12 top 8 performances.

 

3) Germany was a step behind Great Britain and France in 2017 thus the medals show that. Hockey and shooting are both included, Germany is expected to get 0-2 and 2-5 medals respectively.

1) I don't really get it ...

With sports that already had top tier championships, you took the results from there and for every other sports you just predicted the results? 

I think there will be 324 events in Tokyo, so we should have more than 700 medals (thanks to judo and so on) in total. Why didn't you for example take the best non-chinese athlete in table tennis as bronze medal winner?

3) So you made predictions for hockey and shooting, but not for equestrian or football? Why?

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 4 Stunden schrieb Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo:

(Italy) our goal must always be between 30 and 35 medals, with 10-12 gold. 
In tokyo it will be easy, i think

Thanks for bringing that up! I just "discovered" one of the most amazing (in my opinion) coincidences in olympic/sports history.

Have a look at Italy's results (number of golds/medals in total) at the last 3 summer olympics ... just incredible!

 

Back to your original point:

1) Why must the italian goal always be to win 30-35 medals, 10-12 of them in gold?

2) Why do you think that it will be easy?

[OlympicsFan 791]

1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here are my predictions based off of 2017 results. Note, not all events had world championships/equivalents, biggest being women's boxing and equestrian. Weightlifting has been adjusted due to many nations missing out (though the nations missing out aren't compensated). Also nations with only one medal chance have been rounded down to 0 and I have not excluded any athletes which have retired.

 

United States - 102

Russia - 61

China - 60

Great Britain - 46

France - 44

Japan - 43

Germany - 37

Australia - 30

Italy - 29

Canada - 26

Netherlands - 26

Poland - 24

South Korea - 22

Hungary - 21

Spain - 21

Ukraine - 18

Brazil - 16

New Zealand - 15

Belarus - 12

Czech Republic - 12

Turkey - 12

Cuba - 11

Switzerland - 10

Denmark - 9

Iran - 9

Kenya - 9

Serbia - 9

Sweden - 9

Colombia - 8

Georgia - 8

Mexico - 8

Azerbaijan - 7

Belgium - 7

Croatia - 7

Jamaica - 7

Uzbekistan - 7

Ethiopia - 6

India - 6

Kazakhstan - 6

Lithuania - 6

Mongolia - 6

Chinese Taipei - 6

Greece - 5

Norway - 5

Romania - 5

Slovakia - 5

Slovenia - 5

South Africa - 5

Thailand - 5

Austria - 4

Bulgaria - 4

Portugal - 4

Bahrain - 3

Dominican Republic - 3

Egypt - 3

Estonia - 3

Hong Kong - 3

Israel - 3

Morocco - 3

North Korea - 3

Trinidad and Tobago - 3

Venezuela - 3

Argentina - 2

Armenia - 2

Bahamas - 2

Botswana - 2

Chile - 2

Ecuador - 2

Finland - 2

Indonesia - 2

Ireland - 2

Latvia - 2

Malaysia - 2

Qatar - 2

Singapore - 2

Tunisia - 2

Vietnam - 2

Albania - 1

Cote d'Ivoire - 1

Cyprus - 1

Eritrea - 1

Fiji - 1

Guatemala - 1

Kyrgyzstan - 1

Moldova - 1

Montenegro - 1

Nigeria - 1

Puerto Rico - 1

Tajikistan - 1

Turkmenistan - 1

Zambia - 1

 

2 questions:

1) What happens with the remaining medals?

2) Why does the US lose about 10 medals, while Canada more than doubles it's medal count from 12 to 26?

37 medals would be disappointing for Germany. Germany currently has 33 medals and football, hockey, equestrian and shooting aren't included till now, so it would be disappointing if Germany would only gain 4 medals in those sports, i think it's more likely that Germany will win 10-12 medals in those events.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 15 Minuten schrieb Dragon:

My view is that Gros was the best cyclist we've seen at junior level for 10 years and that she will dominate sprinting in the future - but that 2020 might be 1-2 years too soon for her. She'll have the speed but not the tactical knowledge to win in Tokyo.

 

By the way James has retired.

That's nice, but i am still waiting for someone to deliver some facts, apparently this isn't possible, so for me this discussion is over for now. 

If this some kind of revenge for me embarrassing you in the "2018 track cycling world championships" thread, than i can only apologize, i didn't think that this would be so though for you.

[OlympicsFan 791]

vor 54 Minuten schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

If anything: She started track cyciling in 2014 only, two years later she was a double junior world champion.

 

I thaught you wanted to postpone this discussion ?

 

 

Yeah, i thought it was in your interest to postpone it, because there are no results that support your opinion for now, but if she does well at the next worlds, i am willing to change my opinion. For now there is nothing that supports the idea that Gros is a medal favorite or maybe even a lock for a medal at the next olympics.