[OlympicsFan 783]

12 hours ago, LDOG said:

Olympics are intrinsically about nationality since ancient times. It's always been about nations competing so they don't do real war.

Without nationalities the concept of olympics loses it's purpose. Maybe it'll be for the better, but it won't be the olympics anymore and we should therefore close this website.

Yes, i realize that competitions between nations are something like a substitute for war. If there would be no nations, then we could still have competitions like the olympics (or Eurovision), but as a competition between individual athletes and then it wouldn't be about finding out which nation is the "best", but about finding out what humans are capable of. Totallympics could obviously still exist, but we would talk about performances regardless of nationality (and in this Utopia/Dysopia (depends who you are asking) we would all speak the same language ... so i guess not too much would change). Obviously this will never happen, since nationality (just like ethnicity/gender/politics/sexuality/social status/religion) is a wonderful way to divide people and keep them from realizing what their real problems are and how they could actually improve their life/society.

[OlympicsFan 783]

On 09/08/2021 at 13:02, De_Gambassi said:

I was looking at other nations numbers and Germany seems to have the exact same problem than us witch very similar numbers. Since 2012, on average, they have 'lost' 6 medals and 2.8 golds each winter and summer olympics vs the last world championships (-5.6 and -2.4 for France)

 

Now, we understand why @OlympicsFanis constantly angry.

I believe/hope you are trolling, but in case you aren‘t i will try to clarify the things you are having trouble with understanding:

I am not angry about Germany not winning more medals, It only makes me sad to see people cheering for obviously doped athletes (who are coincidentally from the same nation as them). I have lost all illusions about sport and I certainly am not biased towards German athletes (you can go back and read what I wrote after the German women set a new world record in the team pursuit). I realized that people who follow sports at this level support doping and I will try not to watch any sports at this level anymore. It has become impossible for me to enjoy any performances, because I can’t stand the injustice anymore, regardless of the nationality of the winner. When you look at the medal table, you realize that mostly countries with very nationalistic populations (USA, China, Russia, GB, Hungary) are doing well and I don’t believe that this is a good thing. Sport in this form is used to divide people of different nationalities/unite against people of other nationalities and I don’t believe that this is a good thing. We saw this as well at the football European championships. Personally I believe that the concept of nationalities/nations should be abandoned and obviously this would also mean getting rid of competitions between nations.

[OlympicsFan 783]

On 09/08/2021 at 13:40, De_Gambassi said:

 

0/10 We had our worst tally since Athens. No one expected that. Fuck, we are the next host, we were supposed to be on the rise before Paris, so actually it's -10/10 . But, BUT we had 3 golds in team sports, so it's like 40 golds in one ! And that includes the freaking volleyball team, that same one that was almost out after two games, that same one who was lead 0-2 against Slovenia in Berlin OQT in January 2000 ! And, we secure our Top 10 in medals table, even overpassing Germany and Italy on the last days just for the sake of it !

 

So really...

 

I don't know / 10

If that justifies a 0/10, then Germany probably would have to be -5 on your scale, considering it was the worst medal count since 1968 ...

[OlympicsFan 783]

Germany did worse than expected, i think 45 medals would have been realistic and this result isn't representative of the current state of german summer olympic sports. The low medal count was mainly due to Germany losing too many safe medals (men's 800 m freestyle, men's javelin throw, women's javelin throw, men's decathlon, men's K1 1000 m canoeing sprint, men's C1 1000 m canoeing sprint, women's keirin, women's sprint, 1-2 x hockey, women's modern pentathlon, rowing men's single sculls, rowing women's quadruple sculls, shooting rapid fire pistol) and on the other hand not winning enough surprising medals (2 x diving, 1 x archery, 2 x athletics, 1 x judo, 1-2 x sailing).

 

Summary by sports:

Underperfomed: Athletics, canoeing sprint, rowing, shooting, cycling track, hockey, fencing, handball, modern pentathlon

Overperformed: Diving, canoeing slalom, sailing

As expected: Rest

 

I think german sports will bounce back a bit in 2024 as it did after the horrible 2018 olympics. In order to win 60+ medals, there would need to be some big changes. Obviously it would be a good start to have more funding, but even without that there is major room for improvements. In my opinion Germany should focus on less sports. Here is how i would distribute funding (with the current funding/year in paranthesis):

Diving+swimming+open water swimming: 8 million (4 million)

Athletics: 10 million (7 million)

Badminton: 1.5 million (0.9 million)

Boxing+wrestling+judo+taekwondo: 12 million (6.2 million)

Canoeing sprint+canoeing slalom: 5 million (3.5 million)

Mountainbike+road cycling+track cycling: 6 million (4.1 million)

Hockey+basketball+handball+volleyball+beach volleyball: 12 million (8.5 million)

Artistic gymnastics+trampoline: 6 million (2.4 million)

Rowing: 4 million (5.5 million)

Climbing: 1.5 million (-)

Table tennis: 1.5 million (1.1 million)

Tennis: 3 million (0.8 million)

Triathlon: 1.5 million (1.1 million)

[OlympicsFan 783]

24 minutes ago, EupenM said:

I am not worried about the results of France. Of course, it's a shame that we don't get medals in "successful" sports after  Rio (boxing,equestrian).I am very happy for team sports. I don't think that something will change in 3 years, especially in front of a home audience.

 

I would also like to add that most of the French athletes are under 25 years old. Most athletes before the Games had the task not only to try to get a medal, but also to gain Olympic experience.The most obvious example for me is the women's team pursuit in the track cycling. And the fact that France took a lot of offensive fourth places is probably due to poor acclimatization or the youth of the athletes. 

Sounds like a bunch of excuses to me. I think France just took a different approach, focusing more on team sports. Objectively this is a better approach, because it increases social cohesion. For society as a whole the best strategy would be to mainly fund sports that a) increase social cohesion (team sports) and/or b) help integrate people (for example boxing/athletics) and/or c) are very healthy (rowing/athletics/swimming/cycling). It doesn't make much sense to fund sports like shooting, equestrian or fencing, unless your main goal is to win as many medals as possible out of pure vanity.

[OlympicsFan 783]

21 minutes ago, Jinzha said:

Tomorrow is a huge day for the Netherlands actually!

Field hockey women final

Track cycling men team sprint final

Track cycling women madison

Athletics 1500m final (Hassan)

Boxing semi final (Fontijn)

 

Other than that, it's mostly track cycling yeah

Another final in men's team sprint? Brilliant strategy to catch China in the medal table ...

[OlympicsFan 783]

47 minutes ago, ChandlerMne said:

Yes, 4x400 m is good option but USA underperformed in many sports, wouldnt be surprised to see them winning some other medal.

Netherlands should win few more medals in track cycling, should they?

I feel sorry for many German athletes, Unruh, handball team, judokas, shooters, beach volleyball.

Netherlands should win at least 2 more golds in track cycling, also 1 or 2 more golds in athletics and 1 gold in field hockey. There is no reason to feel sorry for the german athletes you mentioned:

Unruh: Won individual silver in 2016 and team bronze in Tokyo

Handball: They were completely hopeless against Egypt, with such a performance they only deserve criticism.

Judo: 2 medals was a solid result for Germany.

Shooting: Very poor performances, but Karsch and Reitz already won olympic medals.

Beach volleyball: Pretty much the expected results.

 

If anything you should feel sorry for women's quadruple sculls and Niklas Kaul, both of them lost a safe medal due to bad luck. Also maybe Elisabeth Seitz deserves some sympathy after narrowly missing bronze again (at her last olympics). I also feel a bit sorry for Christopher Linke in men's 20 km race walking for missing a medal again, here are his results at the last 4 global competitions:

2020 olympics: 5th place (22 seconds behind bronze)

2019 world championships: 4th place (19 seconds behind bronze)

2017 world championships: 5th place (17 seconds behind bronze)

2016 olympics: 5th place (23 seconds behind bronze)

[OlympicsFan 783]

38 minutes ago, Styrka said:

 

At this point I don't know either. I will be waiting for the "conclusion" made by every federation after these Games.

I just looked at your medals and was shocked to see that you won 8 medals in judo, 3 in sailing and 5 in fencing, so not much potential to improve there. Even 40 medals sounds like a rather optimistic prediction at this point. I wonder if your strength in team sports hurts your individual medal chances, in GB it is the other way round (being almost nonexistant in team sports).

[OlympicsFan 783]

16 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

France will end with less medals this games than Rio which is not the usual trajectory for the next host.

Yes, very disappointing. Not sure in which sports they are supposed to dramatically improve until 2024.

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 hour ago, ChandlerMne said:

Should be 2 golds in basketball and 1 in water polo, others are hard to predict.

Also two golds in the 4x400 m relay. China should win gold in men's table tennis and men's 10 m diving? More interesting question for me is who will finish 7th to 10th. I think the Netherlands will finish ahead of Germany and if Italy continues fluking golds in athletics, they might also finish ahead of Germany (in terms of total medals they definitely could). France is a bit disappointing for me, i thought that they would be better just 3 years away from their home olympics.

[OlympicsFan 783]

10 hours ago, Joshi said:

If NZ decided to become a state of Australia and it very nearly happened back in the early 1900s and we'd combine to become Australasia just like in 1908-1912. We will have a combined total of:

 

/

 

20g 8s 20b and be sitting 3rd. It's become a discussion on Twitter recently and it's all about setting our differences aside and about beating Mother Britain. Them damned antipodeans! This is mainly coming from big brother Australia too. Oh only if this were to become true. It won't of course 

Interesting that those two nations didn't win a medal in the same event.

[OlympicsFan 783]

5 hours ago, De_Gambassi said:

For those who don't know, Gracenote is updating its prediction table after each day. Some stuff might seem counter-intuitive like Germany up or Italy down from their day 0 prediction.

The biggest winner so far being   (+13) and the biggest loosers  (-7) &  (-6)

 

 

 

36 medals would still be disappointing for Germany, but maybe it is the logical consequence of more and more countries pouring more money into sports. If you want to stay competitive, you have to do the same and allow the athletes to become pros. I would like to see what would happen if Germany would for example start paying 500k for a gold medal. I think the number of golds for Germany would increase rather quickly.

[OlympicsFan 783]

5 hours ago, Federer91 said:

I knew Japan would over-perform as host, but 30 gold medals and potential second place in the table is vastly more than what i expected. They could very well beat China.

Tons of easy golds in fighting sports (judo & wrestling). Would like to see some day how many golds Russia could win at home (gymnastics, wrestling, boxing, judo) ...

[OlympicsFan 783]

9 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

Hoping for 4 german medals today:

Swimming men's 800 free, slalom canoeing women's C1 (Herzog), judo women's -78 kg (Wagner) and rowing men's lightweight double sculls.

 

Herzog and Wagner are the defending world champions, so anything less than gold would be a bit disappointing, although putting that kind of pressure on them is probably unfair. The german team in men's lightweight double sculls looked great so far, but realistically silver is the best possible outcome. Wellbrock wasn't a medal favorite before the heats, but he looked great and it would be disappointing if anyone other than Romanchuk would beat him (given that Paltrinieri seems to be off). Ovtcharov could also secure a medal by beating Ma Long, but obviously that won't happen. He got a bit unlucky with the draw, he usually performs much better against Fan Zhendong.

I am not sure if any nation ever had a worse day (compared to expectations) than Germany today:

Zeidler: Out in semifinals instead of gold

Wellbrock: No medal instead of gold

Herzog: From defending world champion to bronze

Wagner: From defending world champion to bronze

Ovtcharov: From possible gold (Fan Zhendong is his "favorite" chinese player) to bronze at best

Men's hockey: From possible medal to very likely elimination in group stage

 

Germany lost 2-4 medals today and 4 possible golds.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Hoping for 4 german medals today:

Swimming men's 800 free, slalom canoeing women's C1 (Herzog), judo women's -78 kg (Wagner) and rowing men's lightweight double sculls.

 

Herzog and Wagner are the defending world champions, so anything less than gold would be a bit disappointing, although putting that kind of pressure on them is probably unfair. The german team in men's lightweight double sculls looked great so far, but realistically silver is the best possible outcome. Wellbrock wasn't a medal favorite before the heats, but he looked great and it would be disappointing if anyone other than Romanchuk would beat him (given that Paltrinieri seems to be off). Ovtcharov could also secure a medal by beating Ma Long, but obviously that won't happen. He got a bit unlucky with the draw, he usually performs much better against Fan Zhendong.

[OlympicsFan 783]

I think it is quite interesting to compare the current medal table to the summer sports world championships medal table. Germany for example only „should“ have won 6 medals so far (instead of 10). Köhler in Womens 1500 free, dressage team and dressage individual repeated, but all other medals are new. On the other hand Trajdos (judo women’s -63 kg), table tennis mixed doubles and Vennekamp (women’s 25 m pistol) lost their medal.

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 minute ago, Gianlu33 said:

This is quite depressing. I think that it's the 5th fourth place for us. 

Would have been nice to have 2 germans on the podium.

[OlympicsFan 783]

4 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

Nothing surprising, Games start from now for Germany and the climb to top 6 by end.

Yes, sadly. I hope that it will change a bit in 2024, where Germany will hopfully do better in men's/women's 400 free (thanks to Märtens/Gose). 3 years is a long time, so who knows what the situation will look like then (sadly i have no hope for german fencing).

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 hour ago, Federer91 said:

The one country that always misses from the first half of the Games and you look for it in the medal table - Germany  

Yes, thanks to being weak in swimming and judo. Quite funny that even the swimming/judo events where Germany is best only come at the end of the week (Wellbrock in the 1500 free, Wagner in judo).

[OlympicsFan 783]

2 hours ago, Federer91 said:

Of course they are counted, just like the SU ones are counted. You can not rewrite history. This is only a beaurocrasy writing without much value.

GDR medals should count for Germany?

[OlympicsFan 783]

On 20/07/2021 at 06:47, thiago_simoes said:

Now that we have the final number of qualifiers for each nation, I'll update my predictions.

"Safe" medals
Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal
Athletics: 1 medal
Boxing: 1 medal
Judo: 1 medal

Sailing: 1 medal

Skateboarding: 3 medals

Sprint canoeing: 2 medals

Surfing: 2 medals
Volleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals

 

Likely, but definitely not easy:

Football: 1 medal
Taekwondo: 1 medal

Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals

 

Unlikely, but feasible medals

Cycling: 1 medal
Fencing: 1 medal

Slalom canoeing: 1 medal
Tennis: 1 medal

 

Nearly impossible medals

Archery: 1 medal

Table tennis: 1 medal

Wrestling: 1 medal

 

I'd say 15 medals is a realistic expectation. Some sports in the "safe medal" tier can earn more medals, like artistic gymnastics and judo, and even football can give us 2 medals, so 15 is a somewhat conservative but realistic number.

Our unofficial goal is reaching 20 medals, but for this to happen we'll need excellent performances in judo, artistic gymnastics and volleyball, and we'll need at least 2 medals in athletics and swimming. It's within reach, but I honestly don't expect this to happen anymore.

1 medal in athletics is safe and 2 in swimming are likely? Does Brazil have any medal contenders in athletics apart from Dos Santos? In swimming 2 medals would be the absolute best case in my opinion.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Pretty safe golds:

 

Swimming:

Ledecky (women’s 1500 free)

Titmus (women’s 200/400 free)

McKeown (women’s 200 back)

Australia (womens 400 free relay)

Peaty (men’s 100 breast)

Rylov (men’s 200 back)

Milak (men’s 200 fly)

GB (men’s 800 free relay)

USA (men’s medley relay and mixed medley relay)

 

Top 5 are probably: Australia in women’s 400/800 free relay, Peaty, Milak and Ledecky (1500 free)/Titmus (200/400 free)/McKeown (200 back)/GB (men’s 800 free relay)

 

Athletics:

Holloway (men’s 100 m hurdles)

Duplantis (men’s pole vault)

Crouser (men’s shot put)

Stahl (men’s discus throw)

Vetter (men’s javelin throw)

USA (men’s 4x100/4x400 m relay)

Miller-Uibo (women’s 400 m, if she runs it)

McLaughlin (women’s 400 m hurdles)

Mahuchikh (women’s high jump)

Rojas (women’s triple jump)

Jamaica (women’s 4x100 m relay)

USA (women’s 4x400 m relay)

Top 5 are probably: Duplantis, Crouser, Vetter, Rojas, USA in men’s 4x400 m relay/Stahl

[OlympicsFan 783]

So which 2018 YOG medalists have a chance to win a medal in Tokyo? I think the following athletes could do it:

Swimming: Ceccon, Minakov, Kolesnikov, Burdisso, Milak, De Tullio, Kesely, Yang Junxuan, McKeown, Hodges

Athletics: Díaz, Mu, Abebe, Mahuchikh

Wrestling: Kozyrev?

Diving: Willars, Lian Junjie

Table Tennis: Harimoto, Sun Yingsha, Hirano

Fencing: Ueno, Pusztai

Boxing: Dubois

Judo: Sulamanidze

Shooting: Chaudhary, Bhaker 

[OlympicsFan 783]

Rikako Ikee winning a medal would be pretty cool, sadly this doesn’t seem very likely. Maybe she can make a final. Slovenia winning a medal in men’s basketball would be pretty nice as well. Pellegrini winning a medal would be pretty funny, but I don’t really see it happening. Another very cool medal winner would be Popovici from Romania in men’s 100 free.

[OlympicsFan 783]

For me it would be a medal for Sarah Köhler, Florian Wellbrock, Philipp Heintz, Gesa Krause or Malaika Mihambo. I feel like they deserved this after their performances in recent years.