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OlympicIRL

Athletics at the Summer Olympic Games 2016

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OlympicsFan    231
vor 4 Minuten schrieb GER-PJ:

Thanks again. That is important for two German athletes (Giehl; Woitha).

 

I think 10-12 medals are a very good result, but possible. In London 2012 and Bejing 2015 we got 8 medals. 

We should get a medal in each throwing competition (7). And then it will be difficult... (moguenara in longjump, strutz or ryzih in pole vault, max heß in triplejump) 

I think 8-10 medals are a good result.

11 of our athletes are currently top 3 + Tesfaye (mens 1500m) + Linke (mens 20km race walking) + Holzdeppe (mens pole vault) + Heß (mens triple jump) + Onnen (mens high jump) + Weber (mens javelin throw) + Storl (mens shot put) + mens 4x100m relay + Krause (womens 3000m SC) + Roleder (womens 100m hurdles) + Mihambo (womens long jump) + Gierisch (womens triple jump) + Ryzih (womens pole vault) + Jungfleisch (womens high jump) + Stahl (womens javelin throw) + Schäfer (womens heptathlon). I think Holzdeppe, Heß, Storl, Krause, Roleder, Stahl and Schäfer all have a realistic chance for a medal.

 

Do you think Lückenkemper or Klosterhalfen will reach the final in Rio?

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GER-PJ    1

Yes, they all have realistic opportunities, but the experience says that not all of this will come true.

 

I hope both of them reach the final. But I wouldn'r bet on this. Gina Lückenkemper have a great run at the european championships. 

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OlympicsFan    231
vor 1 Stunde schrieb GER-PJ:

Yes, they all have realistic opportunities, but the experience says that not all of this will come true.

 

I hope both of them reach the final. But I wouldn'r bet on this. Gina Lückenkemper have a great run at the european championships. 

Normally about half of the medal contenders win a medal and we have at least 20 medal contenders:

Storl, Röhler, Vetter, Weber, C.Harting, R.Harting, Onnen, Holzdeppe (if fit), Heß, Abele, Kazmirek, Linke, Tesfaye, mens 4x100m relay, Schwanitz, Heidler, Stahl, Hussong, Fischer/Müller, Mihambo/Moguenara (if fit), Jungfleisch, Ryzih, Gierisch/Elbe, Schäfer, Roleder, Krause, womens 4x100m relay. Some of them are unlikely to win a medal, but Storl/Röhler/Vetter/R.Harting/Holzdeppe/Heß/Abele/Schwanitz/Heidler/Stahl/Hussong/Fischer/Roleder/Krause/Schäfer and maybe Moguenara and our womens 4x100m relay all are among the favorites to win a medal. For me the worst case would be that "only" Storl, Röhler, R.Harting, Abele, Schwanitz, Heidler, Hussong, Fischer, Roleder and Krause win a medal.

 

I was actually disappointed by Lückenkemper at the european championships, i expected her to run at least sub 22.50s, we have to hope that she will peak in Rio. I think she has to be at least on the same level as Lalova if she wants to reach the final. I am clearly more optimistic about Klosterhalfen, not only because 12 athletes can reach the final in womens 1500m. I just hope that Klosterhalfen wont use all her energy at the junior world championships, where she wants to win two medals.

Edited by OlympicsFan

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stepansevs    7
4 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

http://road-to-rio.com/

Here you can see his current position (you have to select men's 400m hurdles). I think he needs to hope that 3 faster guys (assuming that no russian athlete will be allowed to compete) decline their spot. I am not very optimistic, its very sad that Franz and Königsmark werent able to get back into their top shape. 

How many medals do you expect? I think 10-12 medals would be a good result for us.

Do you know how credible road to rio is? Czech Republic had 2 athletes with small q yesterday, but today there isn´t anyone. And i read news that one of them (Melich - hammer throw) received invitation from IAAF, but he is not included in this list now. I am confused.

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vor 4 Stunden schrieb OlympicsFan:

http://road-to-rio.com/

Here you can see his current position (you have to select men's 400m hurdles). I think he needs to hope that 3 faster guys (assuming that no russian athlete will be allowed to compete) decline their spot. I am not very optimistic, its very sad that Franz and Königsmark werent able to get back into their top shape. 

How many medals do you expect? I think 10-12 medals would be a good result for us.

 

To use heywoodu's system (roughly):

 

Krause: chance 25%

Roleder: 25%

4x100m Men: 5%

4x100m Women: 15%

Linke: 5%

Jungfleisch: 10% 

Holzdeppe: 10% (hoping, that he finds his shape)

Ryzih/Strutz: 5%

Moguenara: 20%

Heß: 25%

Schwanitz: 90%

Storl: 65%

R. Harting: 70%

C. Harting: 20%

Müller: 20%

Fischer: 25%

Craft: 10%

Heidler: 55%

Stahl: 30%

Obergföll: 15%

Hussong: 15%

Röhler: 65%

Vetter: 15%

Weber: 10%

Schäfer: 20%

Kazmirek: 5%

Abele: 35%

Someone else: 5%

 

makes 715 points = 7 medals :)

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OlympicsFan    231
vor 30 Minuten schrieb stepansevs:

Do you know how credible road to rio is? Czech Republic had 2 athletes with small q yesterday, but today there isn´t anyone. And i read news that one of them (Melich - hammer throw) received invitation from IAAF, but he is not included in this list now. I am confused.

His best result in the qualifying period is 76.21m from last year, so he should be safe. Maybe they took him off the list of non-qualified athletes and just forgot to add him to the list of qualified athletes. The best athlete on the list of non-qualified athletes has a result of 75.96m and the worst athlete on the list of qualified athletes has a result of 76.18m, Melich has a better result than both and should be safe. I think they get their data from tilastopaja.org website.

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OlympicsFan    231
vor 34 Minuten schrieb EselTheDonkey:

 

To use heywoodu's system (roughly):

 

Krause: chance 25%

Roleder: 25%

4x100m Men: 5%

4x100m Women: 15%

Linke: 5%

Jungfleisch: 10% 

Holzdeppe: 10% (hoping, that he finds his shape)

Ryzih/Strutz: 5%

Moguenara: 20%

Heß: 25%

Schwanitz: 90%

Storl: 65%

R. Harting: 70%

C. Harting: 20%

Müller: 20%

Fischer: 25%

Craft: 10%

Heidler: 55%

Stahl: 30%

Obergföll: 15%

Hussong: 15%

Röhler: 65%

Vetter: 15%

Weber: 10%

Schäfer: 20%

Kazmirek: 5%

Abele: 35%

Someone else: 5%

 

makes 715 points = 7 medals :)

Storl, Schwanitz, R.Harting, Roleder, Krause, Holzdeppe, Heß, Fischer, Heidler, Hussong, Röhler, Vetter and Abele all have at least a 50% chance to win a medal in my opinion. Our womens 4x100m relay, Moguenara, C.Harting, Stahl, Weber and Schäfer all have at least a 25% chance to win a medal in my opinion. That adds up to at least 8 medals. 

Ryzih, Gierisch/Elbe, Linke, Jungfleisch, our mens 4x100m relay, Müller, Tesfaye, Obergföll, Kazmirek and Onnen all have about a 10% chance for a medal, so this would add up to 9 medals at least. 7 medals would be very disappointing in my opinion, in the last 20 years or so we have never been better in athletics.

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I gave Holzdeppe much less points than I would have otherwise because of his injury. I agree that Holzdeppe in shape has a much higher chance to win a medal, but sadly he hasn't been fit this season.

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heywoodu    3,382
17 minutes ago, EselTheDonkey said:

I gave Holzdeppe much less points than I would have otherwise because of his injury. I agree that Holzdeppe in shape has a much higher chance to win a medal, but sadly he hasn't been fit this season.

Personally I would put Krause lower than 25%, whereas I think I would put Jungfleisch higher and probably Moguenara as well. To come up with heptathlon/decathlon predictions I usually look at the top-15/20 athletes in both events and see what kind of total they can get based on recent results/perfomances at major championships, so it's hard to say how I'd rate them yet since I haven't done that yet :p 

 

At least you have basically 5 athletes who all have around 50% (or more) chance to win a medal, which is definitely better than us :d

Then again, it's of course not like the Netherlands and Germany have ever been rivals in athletics, I doubt we'll ever come close since we're still just a small nation even though this time we have 2-3 serious medal chances. 

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JoshMartini007    171

Overall I'm hoping for about 4 medals for Canada. Our performance at the World Champs was an almost best case scenario for Canada and I doubt we'll see it again here (if we do succeed we'll easily meet our target of 19 medals). We have bunch of athletes that will finish in the top 8, hopefully we won't fall into the 4th place curse.

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james89    7
4 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Overall I'm hoping for about 4 medals for Canada. Our performance at the World Champs was an almost best case scenario for Canada and I doubt we'll see it again here (if we do succeed we'll easily meet our target of 19 medals). We have bunch of athletes that will finish in the top 8, hopefully we won't fall into the 4th place curse.

 

Exactly! Generally this Canadian curse also comes from having so much pressure on a couple of athletes that they falter the Olympics. I really do wonder if having more athletes with that potential sees Canada do better overall. I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks. I am expecting 3 medals from Athletics, but the 4-5 range is likely.

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JoshMartini007    171
7 minutes ago, james89 said:

 

Exactly! Generally this Canadian curse also comes from having so much pressure on a couple of athletes that they falter the Olympics. I really do wonder if having more athletes with that potential sees Canada do better overall. I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks. I am expecting 3 medals from Athletics, but the 4-5 range is likely.

 

Athletics is in the second half so if Canada has a good/decent first week it may relax them. The pressure will also be on Brianne to medal in heptathlon (unless we get another surprise medal in the 20km walk), which I hope will settle everyone regardless.

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