rafalgorka

Men’s basketball: I would pick France/Australia/Serbia instead of Greece.
Men‘s football: I would pick Brazil instead of Egypt.
Men‘s handball: I think at least one out of Norway/Denmark will medal.

Some very interesting predictions here, thanks.
 
But one correction needed here I'm afraid.
I don't know much about weightlifting.
 
But @Fly_like_a_don wrote here once that CHN will not participate in W -49kg because they can have only 4 quota places in all W events and in other weight categories CHN has wider gap over other competitors. So no gold medal for CHN in weightlifting on day 1 I think. @Vic Liu, any ideas on this?

So I was thinking about iconic places on each of the world cup/world championship venues.  If I were to stand on the course (away from the range) these are the places I would love to stand at.
 
1.  Ostersund - On top of the hill, where they do the U turn near about 400 m from the end. 
2. Hochfilzen - I have two, the sharp right hand turn where the camera is, as well as near the top of the long hill.  
3. Oberhof - I think either the really fast right hand turn, or the "S" curve near the straightaway to the finish.
4. Ruhpolding - Skiing in front of the half horseshoe stands right before the range.
5.  Antholtz -The meadow
6.  Nova Mesto - Under the tunnel and up the hill!
7.  Kontiollahti - The Wall
8. Oslo - There are a few, but when they biathletes are in the tuck, with the ski jump on the left, going to the range, that is really cool.
 
Others:
Khanty-Mansiysk - I really think the bridge over the road that is in the stadium area is cool.
Pokjuka - The twisty downhill - lots of speed
 
Now, many of these spots would not be the best to see, they would be going to fast, but they just look really neat!
 
Sorry for the random post, I am just waiting for the next round to start!

I Think : Greece - Lithuania - Serbia and Russia 

Mathieu van der Poel really wants to participate in the MTB Olympics rather than the Tour, but the question is what his sponsor wants. But first of all: Covid-infections in Japan are increasing rapidly, so at this moment I don't expect the Games will go on at all. 

My predictions for some team sports - early draft, many changes still to come.
 
Teams not qualified yet - I marked with *
 
M Volleyball - 1. United States 2. Poland 3. Russia
W Volleyball - 1. China 2. Serbia 3. Italy
M Basketball - 1. United States 2. Spain 3. Greece*
W Basketball - 1. United States 2. Australia 3. Spain
M Handball - 1. Spain 2. Croatia* 3. France*
W Handball - 1. Norway* 2. France 3. Netherlands
M Football - 1. Spain 2. France 3. Egypt
W Football - 1. United States 2. Netherlands 3. Japan
M Rugby 7s - 1. Fiji 2. New Zealand 3. South Africa
W Rugby 7s - 1. New Zealand 2. Australia 3. Canada
 
The rest still to come... But I know some people here know much more than me about field hockey or water polo ;-))))
 
I invite you all to this discussion. ;-)

We shouldn't take those championships too serious, many teams/athletes weren't at the best shape as no one knew if this event will be held after all and some teams probably had less time to prepare enough good.

Oh, I hope a lot(how it's always). I think Mayer has biggest chanses. Quiquampoix also as a favourite.
My dark horses are Gicquel/Delrue in mixed doubles in badminton. Their progress is really impressive!

I'm sure they will beat at least one big team, because they always do that. But I don't know what else.

Archery
Archery.odt

I don't want to talk about results and particular players so, to sum up in one sentence: IRL because they aren't good enough, GB too much youth and not as much talent as in the past.
 
 
 

Thank you for this link, this is very interesting.
 
I personally think Greece, Lithuania, Serbia and Croatia will advance from OQT.

I don't like to give 1,2,3 that much but I can give advice on these...
 
Hockey M - BEL clear medalist, then you have 3 teams (AUS, NED, GER) probably going for the others. Then IND is my personal dark horse. GB and ARG with minimal chance. Others have no chance IMO.
 
Hockey W - NED clear medalist and likely gold (but not as sure as, for example, USA in women basketball). Then IMO ARG, AUS, GER and NZL to share medals. Spain possible dark horse. I don't rate Ireland and GB, for diverse reasons.
 
Waterpolo M - I always think SRB is favorite but this time is big toss up between 5-6 teams (SRB + ITA, ESP and whoever come out of OQT alive).
 
Waterpolo W - USA and ESP are CLEAR candidates for medals. Then other team between RUS, AUS and OQT 2 teams will complete. 

http://www.fiba.basketball/olympics/men/2020/news/way-too-early-predictions-for-the-olympics-who-will-qualify-and-who-will-impress-in-tokyo
 
Interesting article about qualification/final tournament. It's interesting that some predictors even don't belive that  will qualify!

KAMIL!!! 140M 

And two 20.0 

Granerud 

Stoch 
He really deserve this Golden Eagle

I think today seals Kamil Stoch as the greatest jumper of our time   His accomplishments for me are above Schlierenzauer, Małysz, Ahonen, Morgenstern, Schmitt. Only Matti Nykänen (RIP) is left in front of him and he could very well be the GOAT, when his career ends. 

Stoch's technique is just fantastic.

Again top10 place for Stękała, he is really in good form 
 
1st, 3rd, 5th and 6th place in general standing for our jumpers! 
 
And who could predict this after false tests in Oberstdorf 

Interesting. I hope to see   /   or  on the podium.

I believe that Anita will have medal, even gold, she is very experienced athlete that changing the coach shouldn't too much affect on her, it could be issue if the Games would be held in 2020, not a year later. She training now very hard in Qatar and I'm confident that she will return to her place where she belong.
 
I will not predict anything now, after season which was badly affected by covid like everything else. Maybe in May/June I will decide to make any predictions.
 
We also must remember that if some big favourite athlete will be infected then might not be able to compete in Japan. But let's see what IOC will decide in near future. Also tomorrow Japanese PM will decide if they will introducte state of emergency again by third wave of covid with this new strain of virus.

Ranking is valid only for nation that have no other qualifed. So, if one italian keep olympic card in European championship, no other are goods

MY PRONOSTICS :
 
SHOOTING
Shooting.odt