rafalgorka

@Noorderling29 why do you think Paris route is less ideal for Kopecky than the one in Glasgow?

Yep, this is not a scientific thread for sure! 👍

Maybe 10 medals in total for them???

When we combine Josh, MagyarBabu and my Day 1 results together it may look like that (still hoping sb joins us here): 1st place - 3 pts, 2nd place - 2 pts, 3rd place - 1 pt. Day 1 Sat 27.07 1. DIVING - W Synchro 3m Springboard CHN - J 3 M 3 R 3 --- 9 USA - J 2 M 2 R 2 --- 6 GBR - J 0 M 1 R 1 --- 2 CAN - J 1 M 0 R 0 --- 1 2. FENCING - W Epee Ind M Candassamy FRA - J 3 M 2 R 3 --- 7 V Kong HKG - J 0 M 0 R 2 --- 2 A Santuccio ITA - J 0 M 0 R 1 --- 1 S Yiwen CHN - J 2 M 0 R 0 --- 2 S Se-ra KOR - J 1 M 0 R 0 --- 1 A Louis Marie FRA - J 0 M 3 R 0 --- 3 A Kun HUN - J 0 M 1 R 0 --- 1 3. FENCING - M Sabre Ind S Bazadze GEO - J 2 M 3 R 3 --- 8 E Dershwitz USA - J 1 M 0 R 2 --- 3 A Szilagyi HUN - J 3 M 1 R 1 --- 5 B Apithy FRA - J 0 M 2 R 0 --- 2 4. JUDO - W -48kg N Tsunoda / W Koga JPN - J 3 M 2 R 3 --- 8 A Scutto ITA - J 0 M 1 R 2 --- 3 S Boukli FRA - J 1 M 3 R 1 --- 5 M Nikolic SRB - J 2 M 0 R 1 --- 3 A Abuzhakynova KAZ - J 1 M 1 R 0 --- 2 5. JUDO - M -60kg R Nagayama / N Takato JPN - J 3 M 0 R 3 --- 6 F Garrigos ESP - J 2 M 0 R 2 --- 4 D Baratov UZB - J 0 M 1 R 1 --- 2 B Aghayev AZE - J 0 M 0 R 1 --- 1 L Ha-rim KOR - J 1 M 2 R 0 --- 3 D Khalmatov UKR - J 1 M 0 R 0 --- 1 G Sardalashvili GEO - J 0 M 3 R 0 --- 3 A Enkhtaivan MGL - J 0 M 1 R 0 --- 1 6. ROAD CYCLING - M Ind Time Trial R Evenepoel BEL - J 3 M 3 R 3 --- 9 T Pogacar SLO - J 0 M 0 R 2 --- 2 F Ganna ITA - J 2 M 1 R 1 --- 4 J Tarling GBR - J 1 M 0 R 0 --- 1 S Kung SUI - J 0 M 2 R 0 --- 2 7. ROAD CYCLING - W Ind Time Trial C Dygert USA - J 3 M 0 R 3 --- 6 D Vollering NED - J 0 M 2 R 2 --- 4 G Brown AUS - J 0 M 3 R 1 --- 4 M Reusser SUI - J 2 M 0 R 0 --- 2 E van Dijk / A Markus NED - J 1 M 1 R 0 --- 2 8. RUGBY SEVENS - M Tournament FIJ - J 2 M 2 R 3 --- 7 NZL - J 3 M 3 R 2 --- 8 ARG - J 0 M 1 R 1 --- 2 AUS - J 1 M 0 R 0 --- 1 9. SHOOTING - Mixed Team 10m Air Rifle CHN 1 - J 3 M 3 R 3 --- 9 IND - J 1 M 0 R 2 --- 3 IRI - J 0 M 1 R 1 --- 2 KOR - J 2 M 0 R 0 --- 2 CHN 2 - J 0 M 2 R 0 --- 2 10. SKATEBOARDING - M Street A Giraud FRA - J 2 M 3 R 3 --- 8 N Huston USA - J 3 M 2 R 2 --- 7 G Ribeiro POR - J 0 M 0 R 1--- 1 Y Horigome JPN - J 1 M 0 R 0 --- 1 V Milou FRA - J 0 M 1 R 0 --- 1 11. SWIMMING - M 400m Free A Hafnaoui TUN - J 2 M 3 R 3 --- 8 S Short AUS - J 3 M 2 R 2 --- 7 L Martens GER - J 1 M 0 R 1 --- 2 E Winnington AUS - J 0 M 1 R 0 --- 1 12. SWIMMING - W 400m Free A Titmus AUS - J 2 M 3 R 3 --- 8 S McIntosh CAN - J 3 M 1 R 2 --- 6 K Ledecky USA - J 1 M 2 R 1 --- 4 13. SWIMMING - W 4x100m Free Relay AUS - J 3 M 3 R 3 --- 9 USA - J 2 M 2 R 2 --- 6 CHN - J 0 M 1 R 1 --- 2 CAN - J 1 M 0 R 0 --- 1 14. SWIMMING - M 4x100m Free Relay AUS - J 2 M 2 R 3 --- 7 ITA - J 1 M 0 R 2 --- 3 GBR - J 0 M 3 R 1 --- 4 USA - J 3 M 1 R 0 --- 4

Ten gold for BEL??? Oh it is too much i am afraid. But who knows…

The same with M volleyball - nothing certain, even after such an awesome 2023 season for us. We can lose 6th QF in a row, obviously can happen, who knows. W speed climbing - Ola Mirosław can beat WR after WR, but she can fail like in 2023 WCH SF. M hammer throw - Nowicki will fight hard for a revenge after 2023 WCH loss, but Katzberg may be really strong again. So we don't have anyone like Summer McIntosh, almost certain gold, in our team.

Sure, nothing certain about Świątek. But I do hope you are wrong here. This is W tennis anyway, so anything can happen. Still I believe she can win this thing: - it's on clay, she won RG 3 times before, we'll see how she plays in 2024 RG before the olympics, - she will be focused on the olympics, she said many times before that this is an important tournament for her, her father was an olympian in Seoul in rowing (quadruple sculls) but they finished out of Final A (7th) and he was very dissapointed; when she lost to Badosa in Tokyo she was really disappointed, even crying on the court when the match ended. But ofc: - i believe this will be a tournament with majority of top players participating, i don't think many will skip it like it happened before, it's Paris, Roland Garros, maybe some players who are not good on clay will say no; - even when she plays well at RG in June, it doesn't mean much - Radwańska was in Wimbledon final in 2012 and then she lost the 1st rd game against Julia Goerges; I love Aga, a big fan of her, probably I'm a bigger fan of Aga than Iga, but Aga seemed not to care about olympics too much, I still remember what she said in the interview after the match, she looked like she doesn't care; - and sad thing is Iga refuses to play for Poland in the Fed Cup this season, which - if i remember correctly - is somehow mandatory when you want to play at the olympics (these rules are pretty complicated) but i hope she will be eligible to play in the end. She can be invited as the former Grand Slam champion, but i think it won't be necessary and Wozniacki will take this place. Anyway, this is W tennis, this one can be won by a very random player. Still, we don't have many bigger chances for gold in Paris than her (M volleyball, W speed sports climbing, M hammer throw (although it can be gold for CAN as you know)... so i hope you are wrong.

@Jinzha good for you!!! and what are the biggest Dutch medal chances on days 1-5???

@phelps

@MHSN I have just found results data for shooting https://www.asia-shooting.org/document/19th-asian-games/ maybe other sports have sth similar

Day 6 Thu 01.08 77. ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS - W Individual All-Around 78. ATHLETICS - M 20km Race Walk 79. ATHLETICS - W 20km Race Walk 80. CANOE SLALOM - M K1 81. FENCING - W Foil Team 82. JUDO - W -78kg 83. JUDO - M -100kg 84. ROWING - W Double Sculls 85. ROWING - M Double Sculls 86. ROWING - W Four 87. ROWING - M Four 88. SAILING - W Skiff 49erFX 89. SAILING - M Skiff 49er 90. SHOOTING - M 50m Rifle 3 Positions 91. SWIMMING - W 200m Fly 92. SWIMMING - M 200m Back 93. SWIMMING - W 200m Breast 94. SWIMMING - W 4x200m Free Relay

And i wonder how big are their chances for a medal in equestrian events. BEL has qualified teams in all 3 equestrian discipines: jumping, eventing and dressage.

Any picks for a surprise medal for Belgium?

Some data for Belgium:

Maybe users from the mentioned NOCs will show up and join the discussion heh :-)

Both Derwael and Thiam were injured this season. This is very interesting what form they show next year.

First choice is quite obvious: BELGIUM

I'd like to open this thread because we get here on totallympics lots of great info from certain nations but we miss many others. So maybe we can talk a bit more about NOCs which don't have active users here. I'd try to moderate the discussion here but picking one NOC daily (or maybe one in two days). We will see if anyone's interested to join the discussion, could be fun.

Early thoughts on medal table after Day 5: CHN well ahead of USA - but maybe I am too optimistic for China and not enough optimistic for USA. CHN wins here majority of events when they are gold medal favs (diving synchro M 10m platform may be an exception) but in Asian Games they sometimes (rarely but still) lost some almost certain gold medals... Schedule for first days is in China's favour imo though. USA should come closer later on. And I think there may be more gold medals for USA in swimming than I predicted. It's hard to imagine that they won't improve from 2023 WCH results. So far great olympics for AUS. Lots of gold medals but here it may go other way - will they be able to perform so strong in the pool like in 2023 WCH??? FRA are having a good time. Hosts usually go better than usual so I think there is really a big a chance for at least one gold medal for them daily. Team GB very impressive. They will have many supporters in Paris, such a short trip for them. JPN get gold only in judo so far but maybe I missed sth here. Fantastic games for GEO but... why not? I haven't picked any surprise gold for them. I don't pick many surprise gold at all, I know. And I favour current WCH way tooooo much, I know. But firstly, those are early thoughts and I don't have much time for serious research. And secondly, I don't know much about many sports (surfing, BMX cycling, judo, archery, shooting, fencing and many others) so I follow the WCH results and ranking lists because what else can I do? Only one gold on Day 5 for GER is a big surprise for me. I don't think it will be that bad for them. I should check back once again on the events when they have medal contenders, probably I missed sth... FIJ gold in rugby is a bit wishful thinking for me... But why not, that would be 3 in-a-row. 0-2-2 for Poland is a lot I think. Still no gold but that would be a really nice result. Maybe i am biased here but still I haven't predicted a medal in shooting which is possible (Mixed 10m Air Rifle, W Air Pistol) and I haven't predicted any Polish medal which would be a massive surprise and we ALWAYS have at least one totally surprising summer olympic medal (M 50km race walk in Tokyo, anyone???). So hopefully we will get 4. From those 4 swimming medal would be the best fun for me because... you know, that's swimming. And our guy would be there on all the photos from this Marchand vs Milak battle... And Poland in a good mood so far because M volleyball team and Iga Świątek in W singles are winning their matches comfortably so far... Some NOCs without a medal so far: NOR DEN BUL IRL PHI EGY LAT EST FIN - but no worries, your time will come. Although... FIN, well... ??? :-((( but we will find sth... Enjoy, stay tuned!

My medal table after Day 5 (76 events) 13-5-6---24 8-13-10---31 8-6-6---20 8-2-3---13 7-5-7---19 5-6-3---14 4-8-4---16 3-0-0---3 2-3-4---9 2-2-1---5 2-1-2---5 2-0-0---2 1-3-2---6 1-3-2---6 1-1-2---4 1-1-1---3 1-1-1---3 1-1-0---2 1-0-3---4 1-0-2---3 1-0-1---2 1-0-1---2 1-0-0---1 1-0-0---1 0-2-2---4 0-2-1---3 0-2-0---2 0-2-0---2 0-2-0---2 0-1-2---3 0-1-2---3 0-1-2---3 0-1-0---1 0-1-0---1 0-1-0---1 0-0-2---2 0-0-2---2 0-0-2---2 0-0-2---2 0-0-1---1 0-0-1---1 0-0-1---1 0-0-1---1 0-0-1---1 0-0-1---1 0-0-1---1 0-0-1---1

Day 5 Wed 31.07 60. ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS - M Individual All-Around 1. Zhang Boheng CHN 2. Daiki Hashimoto JPN 3. Illia Kovtun UKR Asian Games champion beating Champion of the World this time. 61. BMX CYCLING - M Freestyle 1. Kieran Reilly GBR 2. Logan Martin AUS 3. Nick Bruce USA Another gold for reigning WCH in Paris. 62. BMX CYCLING - W Freestyle 1. Hannah Roberts USA 2. Sun Sibei CHN 3. Nikita Ducarroz SUI USA chasing China in the medal table. 63. CANOE SLALOM - W C1 1. Mallory Franklin GBR 2. Jessica Fox AUS 3. Monica Doria Villarubla AND A first ever olympic medal for Andorra!!! Franklin winning gold after great internal battle vs Kimberley Woods. 64. DIVING - W Synchro 10m Platform 1. China 2. Great Britain 3. United States 3rd gold for China in synchro diving. 65. FENCING - M Sabre Team 1. United States 2. Korea Rep. 3. Hungary Young Colin Heathcock doing miracles both in semifinal and final, pushing US Team for a bit surprosing gold medal. 66. JUDO - W -70kg 1. Saki Nizoe JPN 2. Sanne van Dijke NED 3. Barbara Matic CRO 3. Michaela Polleres AUT And another judo gold for Japan. 67. JUDO - M -90kg 1. Luka Maisuradze GEO 2. Sanshiro Murao JPN 3. Ivan Felipe Silva Morales CUB 3. Christian Parlati ITA Like Canadians in W -57kg... When Maisuaradze wins the internal competition against Bekauri, winning olympic gold is a bit easier for him. 68. ROWING - M Quadruple Sculls 1. Netherlands 2. Italy 3. Poland First Dutch gold in Paris. And a very nice bronze for Poland. 69. ROWING - W Quadruple Sculls 1. China 2. Great Britain 3. Netherlands Poland got silver in Tokyo in this event. But sadly didn't qualified this time . 70. SHOOTING - W Trap 1. Jessica Rossi ITA 2. Fatima Galvez ESP 3. Zuzana Rehak-Stefecekova SVK Lin Yi-chun TPE 4th. 71. SWIMMING - W 100m Free 1. Mollie O'Callaghan AUS 2. Siobhan Haughey HKG 3. Sarah Sjoestroem SWE O'Callaghan and Haughey both under 52 secs. 72. SWIMMING - M 200m Fly 1. Leon Marchand FRA 2. Krisztof Milak HUN 3. Krzysztof Chmielewski POL One of the best races of the games. Milak back in decent form but Marchand somehow beats him on last meters. And a first swimming medal for Poland since Otylia show in 2004. 73. SWIMMING - M 200m Breast 1. Qin Haiyang CHN 2. Zac Stubblety-Cook AUS 3. Dong Zhihao CHN Qin Haiyang completes breaststroke double. 74. SWIMMING - W 1500m Free 1. Katie Ledecky USA 2. Simona Quadarella ITA 3. Li Bingjie CHN 75. SWIMMING - M 100m Free 1. Kyle Chalmers AUS 2. Pan Zhanle CHN 3. David Popovici ROU Chalmers by 0,02 sec because... why not??? 76. TRIATHLON - W Individual 1. Cassandre Beauregard FRA 2. Beth Potter GBR 3. Taylor Spivey USA French athlete winning gold in an event which people can watch even without tickets. Despite early hours, huge crowds celebrating this one.

I think Polish athletes in W epee could be highlighted green in ind rankings here - provisionally qualified as team members

Maybe someone else would like to join this thread? we could add all the predictions together (e.g. 3 pts for every gold medal pick for a certain athlete, then 2 pts and 1 pt) I would like to see the outcome of it I know it is too early, that is just for fun, and this week not much is going on in sports world

Thank you @phelps this will be very helpful for my Paris predictions. weightlifting is one of these sports I know nothing about

Day 5 Wed 31.07 60. ARTISTIC GYMNASTICS - M Individual All-Around 61. BMX CYCLING - M Freestyle 62. BMX CYCLING - W Freestyle 63. CANOE SLALOM - W C1 64. DIVING - W Synchro 10m Platform 65. FENCING - M Sabre Team 66. JUDO - W -70kg 67. JUDO - M -90kg 68. ROWING - M Quadruple Sculls 69. ROWING - W Quadruple Sculls 70. SHOOTING - W Trap 71. SWIMMING - W 100m Free 72. SWIMMING - M 200m Fly 73. SWIMMING - M 200m Breast 74. SWIMMING - W 1500m Free 75. SWIMMING - M 100m Free 76. TRIATHLON - W Individual