rafalgorka

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/08/olympics-official-not-certain-tokyo-games-will-go-ahead-coronavirus?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR3tp_-nr5dX-eutn9YiZ2Y0tqjZft4BHgF4zrcjyaEmyUfz3-H1dA9MNw8 Dick Pound 's bla bla bla again. He talks too much, IMO. He really likes to be in the spotlight. And I really don't like the guy. But he may be right this time, I'm afraid.

Still thinking about my swimming predictions. I will try this thing: in every event I will prepare the ranking list, like in quali system best times, long course, period from 01/03/2019 to today (which is olympic qualifying period) To begin with: M 400 IM – OQT 4.15.84 – OST 4.21.46 Daiya Seto JPN 4.07.95 (19) wch 19 – 1 2020 S.C. – x 94 S Rio - 3 Jay Litherland USA 4.09.22 (19) wch 19 – 2 2020 S.C. – x 95 Rio - 5 Max Litchfield GBR 4.10.94 (19) wch 19 – 7 2020 S.C. – 5 95 Rio - 4 Charlie Swanson USA 4.11.46 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 98 Ilia Borodin RUS 4.11.50 (20) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 03 Shun Wang CHN 4.11.89 (20) wch 19 – 23 2020 S.C. – x 94 Rio - 10 David Verraszto HUN 4.11.90 (19) wch 19 – 13 2020 S.C. – 7 88 Rio - 12 Apostolos PapastamosGRE 4.11.93 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 01 S Lewis Clareburt NZL 4.12.07 (19) wch 19 – 3 2020 S.C. – 25 99 Jacob Heidtmann GER 4.12.40 (20) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – 14 94 S Rio - DSQ (but not for doping, some stroke technic issues, If I remember correctly ) Yuki Ikari JPN 4.12.54 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 00 Peter Bernek HUN 4.12.80 (19) wch 19 – 5 2020 S.C. – x 92 Jeremy Desplanches SUI 4.12.86 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 94 Rio - 13 Joan Lluis Pons Ramon ESP 4.13.30 (19) wch 19 – 4 2020 S.C. – 16 96 S Rio - 8 Arjan Knipping NED 4.13.46 (19) wch 19 – 8 2020 S.C. – 36 94 Brandonn Almeida BRA 4.13.69 (19) wch 19 – 11 2020 S.C. – 8 97 Rio - 15 You can find here: Olympic qualifying time and olympic selection time Best time in LC since 01/03/2019 (in the qualifying period) - and whether this time was achieved in 19 or 20 Place in LC wch 19 Place in 2020 SC ranking Year of birth S at the end means: English Wikipedia says the swimmer has been already selected to the games Place in Rio 2016 Max 2 swimmers from one NOC allowed, like in the real games Quite interesting stats for me, I guess But early thoughts: No Kosuke Hagino JPN in ranking, Rio - 1, but he is 2nd in 2020 SC ranks, and obviously medal contender Hard to predict who will qualify for USA - e.g. will be Chase Kalisz, Rio - 2, included in Team Tokyo? No AUS swimmers??? GBR olympic team also hard to predict - Duncan Scott 1st in 2020 SC ranks, Tom Dean (born 2000) 4h in 2020 SC ranks No POL swimmers, but it will not change in this event, I'm afraid Dark horse out of top 16 yet - IMHO: Maxim Stupin RUS (born 2000) More still to come, we will see where we get from here...

@OlympicsFan nice to read your opinions - I will defenitely think whether I should reconsider some of my predictions, when I have some free time again.

Some very interesting predictions here, thanks. But one correction needed here I'm afraid. I don't know much about weightlifting. But @Fly_like_a_don wrote here once that CHN will not participate in W -49kg because they can have only 4 quota places in all W events and in other weight categories CHN has wider gap over other competitors. So no gold medal for CHN in weightlifting on day 1 I think. @Vic Liu, any ideas on this?

That is true. But - on the other hand - Netherlands team was very impressive in Poznań, nevertheless. And I really enjoyed Natan medal in single sculls. An olympic single sculls medal would be something, a very prestigious one. All these predictions are really for fun obviuously. In early 2020 I thought Robert Lewandowski may win ChL with Bayern this year. But I must admit I never ever thought Iga Świątek will win Roland Garros in 2020. And I really watch and read tennis a lot. What a surprise for me that was. How will she perform in Tokyo, what do you think? I wonder - maybe she could play mixed doubles with Łukasz Kubot (or Hubert Hurkacz) there as well?

@rybak I hope for a gold in rowing, too. But 2020 EuroCh in Poznań were not that good for us, so I am not as optimistic about it as I was last spring.

A first ever gold medal in canoeing would be really something. Yes, I do hope for that, too. Only small chances for gold in women kayak races though. It may end as usual - 2 or 3 medals, but not gold.

Ok. I think there will be 2 handball medals for France, too. And biggest French medal chances in individual sports?

@LDOG winning over one big team may actually be not enough to get to QFs. This is a very strong group, besides Tunisia, everyone can win against everyone. So in the end it may look like that, there will be many teams with 3 wins and 2 loses. Very interesting group. Our group is weaker. But that means that - no-matter-what - we will have a very strong opponent in QF. I hope I will not see 5th loss in QFs in a row. That would be really too much. And what are the biggest ARG medal chances in individual sports in your opinion? Paula Pareto again? Or someone else? Any dark horses?

You have a very strong belief in Polish sportsmen, I can see. But that's good. I hope you are right. Who will get gold for Poland in Tokyo (besides Włodarczyk), what do you think?

OK. But You still made it to the final in China, so you are defenitely a contender here. I personally think ARG will be in the QF obviously, but will lose to USA / Spain / Greece / Australia. We will see. And what do you think about ARG M volleyball team chances? We think our volleyball team is very good, but we had very difficult matches against ARG in the past. You won few of them. We underperform in the olympics, PL won wch twice recently, but we lost 4 olympic QFs in a row so... we can meet POL vs ARG in the QFs in Tokyo but you should beat at least one team from BRA, USA, RUS, FRA first, so it may be difiicult.

That would be great, but nah.... This is national sport in LTU, they will be so motivated in this tournament, PL chances are very slim here. I think PL will beat Angola in the group stage but we may lose to Slovenia. And that means we will play against Lithuania in the semis already. But - AGAIN - I HOPE I am WRONG here ;-)))))))))) What do you think about PL M 3x3 team? Will they qualify?

Clean-sweep for Korea? Yes, it can very easily happen. In archery I really hope for a medal for Bangladesh, like in the last wchs. Such a populous country and no one single olympic medal ever yet.

In this FIBA article mentioned above, they believe in ARG medal very strong. And they say Facundo Campazzo will be a big star in Tokyo. You agree about him? And noone picked Greece there on FIBA website. Looks like I'm the only one here. ;-)

@EupenM who is the biggest French medal contenders in Tokyo, what do you think?

What do you mean - "for diverse reasons"?

Thank you for this link, this is very interesting. I personally think Greece, Lithuania, Serbia and Croatia will advance from OQT.

You are probably right. I must say, I am not very interested in women's basketball, so my predictions may not be accurate here.

Yes, these teams are strong favourites for medal. I would also add Lithuania to this group (well, they have to beat Poland in qualies first, but I am afraid they will do it with ease). But if Greece qualifies (which will be difficult because the qualifying tournament will be during NBA season - so they need to play without Giannis and beat Canada/Turkey/China), then in the olympics Giannis will show sth special I believe, and he will help them a lot to reach semis, I think. The same with Mo Salah and Egypt football team. I know it may be some wishful thinking - but c'mon, there must be some surprises and dark horses ;-)

1. ...rather: where she belongs. Or belonged (hopefully not). We will see. I understand your point of view, time will tell. I really hope she will rebuild her form, but last time I saw her on my own eyes in competition (Kusociński 2019 - yes, I know, long time ago) she really didn't look good. Americans may be much better these days. And she will not go to Tokyo if she doesn't feel she's a gold medal contender. But I really hope I am wrong here. 2. Yes, it is probably not the best time for predictions, but I do it just for fun. Today is off-work day for me, so I have some time to spare. I will repeat it in May or June for sure. It will be interesting how indoor season will look like, too. 3. These virus things is obviously a long topic, a lot of factors, a lot ot issues here. We will see how it unfolds. But personally, I think this is very likely that the olympics may not happen this year and our predictions are everything we got. | But I hope I am terribly wrong here, as well. Time will tell. Now thinking about my cycling predictions...

My predictions for some team sports - early draft, many changes still to come. Teams not qualified yet - I marked with * M Volleyball - 1. United States 2. Poland 3. Russia W Volleyball - 1. China 2. Serbia 3. Italy M Basketball - 1. United States 2. Spain 3. Greece* W Basketball - 1. United States 2. Australia 3. Spain M Handball - 1. Spain 2. Croatia* 3. France* W Handball - 1. Norway* 2. France 3. Netherlands M Football - 1. Spain 2. France 3. Egypt W Football - 1. United States 2. Netherlands 3. Japan M Rugby 7s - 1. Fiji 2. New Zealand 3. South Africa W Rugby 7s - 1. New Zealand 2. Australia 3. Canada The rest still to come... But I know some people here know much more than me about field hockey or water polo ;-)))) I invite you all to this discussion. ;-)

I think Anita Włodarczyk will not have a great form in August, I am very worried about her because she changed her coach as you know. She may even probably miss the olympics - I am afraid she will skip it when feels she is not that good as before (like Artur Partyka in 2000). But as I wrote, those are early drafts, early predictions. If Anita shows good form in spring, I will obviously change my expectations with pleasure. Sofia Ennaoui is training really hard now (we have some common friends) and she doesn't have one of best PBs of course but has a strong finish and olympic 1500 final may be not that fast, so there is a chance for her. The same with Marcin Lewandowski. Maria Andrejczyk was better and better in 2020. She has a massive olympic experience already from Rio. This 4th place is still hurting her a lot so I think she will be extremely motivated and has a really good chance for bronze. I guess she may have it in the last throw, beating Japanese hopes (I predict Haruka Kitaguchi will be 4th). But I may agree that I may be too optimistic with Sofia and Maria - but I just like both of them very much and wish them all the best. And rybak, what are your predictions, both Polish and international?

My predictions for athletics - early draft (will be changed for sure, too) Fri 30/7 M 10,000m - 1. Joshua Cheptegei UGA 2. Yomif Kejelcha ETH 3. Hagos Gebhriwet ETH Sat 31/7 M Discus Throw - 1. Daniel Stahl SWE 2. Fedrick Dacres JAM 3. Andrus Gudzius LTU Mixed 4x400m Relay - 1. United States 2. Jamaica 3. Bahamas W 100m - 1. Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce JAM 2. Elaine Thompson JAM 3. Dina Asher-Smith GBR Sun 1/8 W Shot Put - 1. Gong Lijiao CHN 2. Danniel Thomas-Dodd JAM 3. Chase Ealey USA M High Jump - 1. Mutaz Essa Barshim QAT 2. Maksim Nedasekau BLR 3. Brandon Starc AUS W Triple Jump - 1. Yulimar Rojas VEN 2. Shanieka Ricketts JAM 3. Liadagmis Povea CUB M 100m - 1. Noah Lyles USA 2. Andre De Grasse CAN 3. Akani Simbine RSA Mon 2/8 M Long Jump - 1. Juan Miguel Echevarria CUB 2. Tajay Gayle JAM 3. Yuki Hashioka JPN W 100m Hurdles - 1. Kendra Harrison USA 2. Danielle Williams JAM 3. Nia Ali USA W Discus Throw - 1. Sandra Perkovic CRO 2. Yaime Perez CUB 3. Valarie Allman USA M 3000m Steeplechase - 1. Soufiane El Bakkali MAR 2. Conseslus Kipruto KEN 3. Lamecha Girma ETH W 5000m - 1. Hellen Obiri KEN 2. Sifan Hassan NED 3. Konstanze Klosterhalfen GER Tue 3/8 W Long Jump - 1. Malaika Mihambo GER 2. Ivana Spanovic SRB 3. Ese Brume NGR M 400m Hurdles - 1. Karsten Warholm NOR 2. Rai Benjamin USA 3. Abderrahman Samba QAT M Pole Vault - 1. Armand Duplantis SWE 2. Sam Kendricks USA 3. Piotr Lisek POL W Hammer Throw - 1. DeAnna Price USA 2. Brooke Andersen USA 3. Alexandra Tavernier FRA W 800m - 1. Jemma Reekie GBR 2. Halimah Nakaayi UGA 3. Ajee Wilson USA W 200m - 1. Dina Asher-Smith GBR 2. Elaine Thompson JAM 3. Sha'Carri Richardson USA Wed 4/8 W 400m Hurdles - 1. Dalilah Muhammad USA 2. Sydney McLaughlin USA 3. Femke Bol NED W 3000m Steeplechase - 1. Hyvin Kiyeng KEN 2. Beatrice Chepkoech KEN 3. Emma Coburn USA M Hammer Throw - 1. Paweł Fajdek POL 2. Wojciech Nowicki POL 3. Bence Halasz HUN M 800m - 1. Donovan Brazier USA 2. Nijel Amos BOT 3. Amel Tuka BIH M 200m - 1. Noah Lyles USA 2. Michael Norman USA 3. Divine Odudoru NGR Thu 5/8 M Triple Jump - 1. Christian Taylor USA 2. Pedro Pablo Pichardo POR 3. Hugues Fabrice Zango BUR M Shot Put - 1. Tomas Walsh NZL 2. Ryan Crouser USA 3. Darlan Romani BRA M 110m Hurdles - 1. Grant Holloway USA 2. Orlando Ortega ESP 3. Sergey Shubenkov RUS M 20km Race Walk - no idea yet ;-) W Pole Vault - 1. Anzhelika Sidorova RUS 2. Sandi Morris USA 3. Katie Nageotte USA M 400m - 1. Fred Kerley USA 2. Steven Gardiner BAH 3. Kirani James GRN W Heptathlon - 1. Katarina Johnson-Thompson GBR 2. Nafissatou Thiam BEL 3. Erica Boguard USA M Decathlon - 1. Niklas Kaul GER 2. Kevin Mayer FRA 3. Damian Warner CAN Fri 6/8 M 50km Race Walk - no idea yet ;-) W 20km Race Walk - no idea yet ;-) W Javelin Throw - 1. Lyu Huihui CHN 2. Tatsiana Khaladovich BLR 3. Maria Andrejczyk POL M 5000m - 1. Joshua Cheptegei UGA 2. Selemon Barega ETH 3. Mohammed Ahmed CAN W 400m - 1. Shaunae Miller-Uibo BAH 2. Shericka Jackson JAM 3. Phyllis Francis USA W 1500m - 1. Faith Kipyegon KEN 2. Gudaf Tsegay ETH 3. Sofia Ennaoui POL W 4x100m Relay - 1. Jamaica 2. United States 3. Great Britain M 4x100m Relay - 1. United States 2. Great Britain 3. Jamaica Sat 7/8 W Marathon - no idea yet ;-) W High Jump - 1. Mariya Lasitskene RUS 2. Yaroslava Mahuchikh UKR 3. Yuliya Levchenko UKR W 10,000m - 1. Sifan Hassan NED 2. Letesenbet Gidey ETH 3. Hitomi Niiya JPN M Javelin Throw - 1. Johannes Vetter GER 2. Magnus Kirt EST 3. Neeraj Chopra IND M 1500m - 1. Timothy Cheruiyot KEN 2. Jakob Ingebrigtsen NOR 3. Marcin Lewandowski POL W 4x400m Relay - 1. United States 2. Poland 3. Jamaica M 4x400m Relay - 1. United States 2. Jamaica 3. Belgium Sun 8/8 M Marathon - no idea yet ;-)

My predictions for swimming (early draft - will be changed for sure) Sun 25/7 M 400 IM - 1. Daiya Seto JPN 2. Kosuke Hagino JPN 3. Apostolos Papastamos GRE M 400 Free - 1. Danas Rapsys LTU 2. Elijah Winington AUS 3. Gabriele Detti ITA W 400 IM - 1. Katinka Hosszu HUN 2. Yui Ohashi JPN 3. Shiwen Ye CHN W 4x100 Free - 1. Australia 2. United States 3. Canada Mon 26/7 W 100 Fly - 1. Margaret MacNeil CAN 2. Sarah Sjostrom SWE 3. Zhang Yufei CHN M 100 Breast - 1. Adam Peaty GBR 2. Arno Kamminga NED 3. Ilya Shymanovich BLR W 400 Free - 1. Ariarne Titmus AUS 2. Katie Ledecky USA 3. Leah Smith USA M 4x100 Free - 1. United States 2. Australia 3. Russia Tue 27/7 M 200 Free - 1. Danas Rapsys LTU 2. Duncan Scott GBR 3. Katsuhiro Matsumoto JPN W 100 Back - 1. Regan Smith USA 2. Kaylee McKeown AUS 3. Kylie Masse CAN M 100 Back - 1. Xu Jiayu CHN 2. Kliment Kolesnikov RUS 3. Ryan Murphy USA W 100 Breast - 1. Lilly King USA 2. Yulia Yefimova RUS 3. Benedetta Pilato ITA Wed 28/7 W 200 Free - 1. Ariarne Titmus AUS 2. Emma McKeon AUS 3. Federica Pellegrini ITA and Siobhan Haughey HKG ex aequo* ;-) M 200 Fly - 1. Kristof Milak HUN 2. Daiya Seto JPN 3. Tamas Kenderesi HUN W 200 IM - 1. Kaylee McKeown AUS 2. Katinka Hosszu HUN 3. Sydney Pickrem CAN W 1500 Free - 1. Katie Ledecky USA 2. Wang Jianjiahe CHN 3. Simona Quadarella ITA M 4x200 Free - 1. Australia 2. United States 3. Russia Thu 29/7 M 800 Free - 1. Gregorio Paltrinieri ITA 2. Henrik Christiansen NOR 3. Jack McLoughlin AUS M 200 Breast - 1. Anton Chupkov RUS 2. Kirill Prigoda RUS 3. Ippei Watanabe JPN W 200 Fly - 1. Regan Smith USA 2. Zhang Yufei CHN 3. Hali Flickinger USA M 100 Free - 1. Duncan Scott GBR 2. Caeleb Dressel USA 3. Andrei Minakov RUS W 4x200 Free - 1. Australia 2. United States 3. Canada Fri 30/7 W 200 Breast - 1. Yuliya Yefimova RUS 2. Lilly King USA 3. Annie Lazor USA M 200 Back - 1. Evgeny Rylov RUS 2. Ryan Murphy USA 3. Mitchell Larkin AUS W 100 Free - 1. Simone Manuel USA 2. Cate Campbell AUS 3. Emma McKeon AUS M 200 IM - 1. Daiya Seto JPN 2. Andrew Seliskar USA 3. Wang Shun CHN Sat 31/7 M 100 Fly - 1. Caeleb Dressel USA 2. Andrei Minakov RUS 3. Chad le Clos RSA W 200 Back - 1. Regan Smith USA 2. Kaylee McKeown AUS 3. Kylie Masse CAN W 800 Free - 1. Katie Ledecky USA 2. Ariarne Titmus AUS 3. Wang Jianjiahe CHN Mixed 4x100 Med - 1. United States 2. Australia 3. Russia Sun 1/8 M 50 Free - 1. Caeleb Dressel USA 2. Florent Manaudou FRA 3. Kristian Gkolomeev GRE W 50 Free - 1. Sarah Sjostrom SWE 2. Simone Manuel USA 3. Katarzyna Wasick POL and Ranomi Kromowidjojo NED ex aequo* ;-) M 1500 Free - 1. Gregorio Paltrinieri ITA 2. Florian Wellbrock GER 3. Franko Grgic CRO W 4x100 Med - 1. United States 2. Australia 3. Canada M 4x100 Med - 1. United States 2. Great Britain 3. Russia

https://swimswam.com/8-germans-have-qualified-so-far-for-postponed-olympic-games/