stratocumulus

Klaudia Kazimierska  W 1500m - 4.01.89 OQT today in Bydgoszcz 

There is no reason to have this event, not this week, not this month, but this year as a whole... It's a complete joke and devalues the European Championships. The swimmers don't want it, the fans could care less, most TVs don't show it... You can name it "Random Belgrade meeting number 4" and hardly anyone could tell the difference. Swimming has one of the worst Governing bodies, when it comes to organising their events and calendar.

New OQTs from Day 2:
 
Men's 100m Freestyle:
 Kristof Milak
 
Men's 800m Freestyle:
 Krzysztof Chmielewski
 Zalan Sarkany
 
Men's 200m Backstroke:
 David Gerchik
 
Women's 100m Freestyle:
 Barbora Seemanova
 
Women's 100m Breaststroke:
 Anastasia Gorbenko
 
Gorbenko is absolutely on fire
and new qualifier in the women's 100 free 

Well, it seems no one noticed, but  Krzysztof Chmielewski (try to read as: Kshyshtof Khmielevski) has qualified for 800m freestyle during the European Championships (7:50:51):
 

Well, it seems no one noticed, but  Krzysztof Chmielewski (try to read as: Kshyshtof Khmielevski) has qualified for 800m freestyle during the European Championships (7:50:51):
 

Well, it seems no one noticed, but  Krzysztof Chmielewski (try to read as: Kshyshtof Khmielevski) has qualified for 800m freestyle during the European Championships (7:50:51):
 

Tours are doing as best as they can. Olympics are mainly held in July these days and July is full of clay 250s which all the top players would skip anyway. The post-Wimbledon clay events are usually for lower ranked players or clay speciallists (some higher ranked players could enter them if they did bad on grass). Most top players are HC speciallists these days (Nadal who is on his last rites anyway and Świątek are exceptions from the rule). The two most important events during August are Canadian Open and Cincinnati. They are not getting moved and the week before USO is another 250 and new 500 in Mexico for women. Again, top players don't want to overplay one week before US Open. The entry list cut-off will be much higher than in Canada & Cincinnati.
 
The days of 2000 when Sydney OG were in September and there was a two week break between US Open and the Olympics will not return. Back then the season ended in mid-November (YEC date) or late November for Fed Cup final. These days women end their season in mid-October and they still complain they play too much.
 
ATP had their 2000 YEC in the last week of November. This year it's held in the second week of November.
 
The overall schedule issue is that Olympics are held in the same year as European Football Championships which is getting longer with more teams allowed. The days of 8/16 teams Euro ending in the last weekend of June are over. You won't see UEFA Euro overlapping the Olympics anytime soon and NEVER if Olympics are held in Europe as well. Everyone has to fall behind, even Athletics ECh which literally ended on a Wednesday this year not to mess up with the UEFA event. As big as World Athletics are, they are third string compared to UEFA.
 
The ideal Olympics schedule for tennis would be the second and third week of July. But that's not gonna happen with UEFA Euro stretching to mid-July these days. The 2008 schedule when Beijing was held in mid-August was also a killer, you had the USO swing either side of the OG (and most of it was front-loaded before OG anyway including all the Tier I events as they were called back then). Same thing happened in 2004 with Athens (also held in mid-August).
 
In 2024 to have ONE 500 event in DC during the Olympics is as good as it gets. It saves them having to split the USO swing into two halves if the OG would be held in August all the time. That 500 will be a good chance for lower ranked players or those who didn't make the OG cut due to nations quota to get an event result on their ranking. And Sabalenka would be a bigger favorite to win Washington than she would be of making the OG final for instance IMO.
 
Sorry for the long post but I do have an extended history of watching tennis so I'm not talking out of context here

Unexpected, but I'm so happy that we will not miss this sport 

That never really worked for Ireland over the years.... more like divide it by 6

Though it has not been officially confirmed (or rejected), I do not think so. Świątek said, she would not manage three events and most probably she is going to decline the women's doubles:

https://www.meczyki.pl/newsy/tenis/swiatek-i-linette-zagraja-w-deblu-na-igrzyskach-olimpijskich-liderka-rankingu-wta-wyslala-wazny-sygnal/227614

Don't you think this qualification via the Nations Cup is quite a pervert thing? You have to have two fairly good times and one of them is sure NOT to go to Olympics even if they jointly win the competition. What incentive does it give the "weaker" duo to support the team performance? I could imagine a crate of beer they drink later together on the beach would not necessarily do for a motivation :D And what if there has been some past between the members of the two duos?
 
All in all I find it one of the most curious qualification processes ever;]

The LW double in rowing were nailed on in Tokyo. The first and only time I’ve been confident of an Irish gold medal
 
This year as you say we have more medal chances than ever before but even the LW double can’t be seen as favourites for gold now 
 
Athletics 
 
Chances for Rhasidat, Mageean and the relays. One medal would be huge
 
Swimming
 
Chances for Wiffen in 800 and 1500 free. Again, one would be great and he could even snatch gold if he continues to develop 
 
Gymnastics
 
Rhys is a medal favourite but pommel is so technical that one error could see him leave without a medal again. GB, Kazakhstan, Japan and more think they have gold contenders 
 
Rowing
 
LW double should medal. Gold is achievable. Other crews aren’t showing as well this year but we’ve won medals at the last few world champs so they’re contenders in Paris in at least 4 other events
 
Boxing
 
Luck plays a huge part but our women will be disappointed if they don’t bring back 2 medals between them. Harrington could win gold but I don’t think she will 
 
Cycling
 
Road race is a lottery but Ben Healy could win a medal. Lara Gillespie is a top 6 cyclist in the omnium and that can produce stories medalists 
 
Equestrian
 
Our show jumpers are all world class and could all medal. The team could win gold or could be eliminated on day one. The eventing team is always likely to finish top 5 and a surprise medalist could happen with no discard scores this year 
 
Rugby
 
The men have a decent chance. They’re always top 5. Bounce of a ball can sometimes decide games. Women would need everything to go right 
 
6 is our record (one added after the event) and I’m hopeful we’ll match that. 

This rule changed in 2020.

I can see a darts biathlon working though.

The rivality is strong in football but not in another sports.

I was wondering as this post came from a Brazilian, how was it meant  I heard guys you had hard times with each other down there.... ;p

Hej, post przygotowany po ang, ale mam nadzieję, że będzie ok:)
 
Any predictions for the final number of qualified athletes? As of today (30.05.2024) I stay optimistic and bet 207 with the remaining entries would be like:
 
Archery:                                remains null
Athletics                               +25 (as per WA ranking - I think the number is more or less correct, maybe could go slightly up):
Badminton:                           remains null
Basketball 5x5:                    remains null
Beach Volleyball:                  +2
Boxing:                                  +2 (being positive;) EDIT: 05.06. => 2 quotas confirmed
Breaking:                              remains null
Golf:                                      +1
Judo:                                    +3 EDIT: 05.06. => 3 quotas nearly confirmed from the ranking
Modern Pentathlon:            +2
Shooting:                             +1
Skateboarding:                    remains null
Sport Climbing:                   +1
Swimming:                           remains as it is now
Tennis:                                 +4
Weightlifting                        +1 EDIT: 05.06. => reallocation confirmed

Any challenging comments are very welcome:)

Expected qualifiers:
 
Athletics:

100m W - Stefanowicz & Tsimanouska
200m W - Tsimanouska & Kotwiła
800m W - Sarna & Wielgosz
1500m W - Płocińska
3000m W - Konieczek sisters & Królik
LJ W - Horowska
SP W - Kardasz
DT W - Zabawska
HT W - Kopron
JT W - Andrejczyk
 
100m M - Wdowik
200m M - Komański & Żok
1500m M - Wyderka
110m M - Szymański & Kiljan
PV M - Sobera
SP M - Bukowiecki & Haratyk
JT M - Mrzygłód & Krukowski

Beach Volleyball:
 
M: Bryl/Łosiak (FIVB ranking)
 
Boxing:
 
M: Durkacz, Bereznicki

Golf:
 
M: Adrian Meronk from the ranking
 
Judo:
 
M: Kuczera
W: Szymańska, Bacut-Kłoczko
 
Modern Pentathlon:
 
W: Maliszewska
M: Kasperczak

Shooting:
 
W: Stankiewicz through ranking
 
Sport Climbing:
 
W: N. Kałucka
 
Tennis:
 
W: Swiatek, Frech, Linette
M: Hurkacz

Possible positive surprises:
 
Archery: +1 (someone in the final tournament)
Athletics: +4 (Witek in JT W, Wojciechowski in PV M, some runners - Rak, Kopec?)
Beach Volleyball: +2 (Gruszczyńska/Ola in the CEV European Continental Cup)
Sport Climbing +1 (Dzienski?)
Swimming +1 (someone?)
Tennis +1 (Zielinski?)

The marathon event is the most iconic Olympic event and all NOCs should have an entry in that race.

Poland confirmed.

The rankings after the WC have been published:

https://www.ijf.org/wrl_olympic

The rankings after the WC have been published:

https://www.ijf.org/wrl_olympic

Some changes
 
https://paris2024.sailing.org/qualification-2/whos-qualified/
 
Men's ILCA 7 Sweden  out, Poland  in
Women's Windsurfing  AIN  out, Peru  in
Women's Windsurfing Switzerland  out, Cyprus  in
 
If I see correctly.

The rankings after the WC have been published:

https://www.ijf.org/wrl_olympic

Universality quotas account for around 200 and relay-only athletes will also be at around 175. That's already 44% of the total swimming quota, leaving just over half for the "actual" individual competitors.
 
To translate better, each event would have an average of 17 unique swimmers. Of course, in swimming there are athletes which compete in multiple events, but even with that it isn't hard to see why some events struggle to have 16 non-universality entrants.

A while ago, I mentioned how there were a concerning number of qualifiers in the men's 400m IM. Today, based on the results that happened at Canadian Olympic Trials today, I would like to talk about another event with a concerning amount of qualifiers. That would be the Women's 100m Freestyle. Here's roughly where things stand today. In 2016, the OQT was 54.43. Then despite the reduction of quotas in 2020, the OQT still stood relatively constant only decreasing by 0.05 seconds to 54.38. This cycle, it's decreased by a whopping 0.77 SECONDS TO 53.61.
 
Now why such the large drop, you ask? Well you have to remember that World Aquatics has a method they use to derive each OQT. For the Olympics, they use the faster of the 14th place time in the heats of the last Olympics, or the OQT of the Olympics before. It just so happened that the 14th place finisher at Tokyo had a time of 53.61 and that's how we have the standard we have today. Now let's see how many qualifiers we have as of today:
 
 
NOC ATHLETE 1
QUALIFICATION EVENT
RESULT ATHLETE 2
QUALIFICATION EVENT
RESULT
Australia
2 Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 1
TBD
OQT
X
Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 2
TBD
OQT
X

Canada
0 OLEKSIAK Penny
Bell Canadian Olympic & Paralympic Trials 2024
OCT
53.66
   
Czechia
0 SEEMANOVÁ Barbora
World Aquatics Championships 2024
OCT
53.76
   
France
2 GASTALDELLO Béryl
Giant Open Final 2023
OQT
53.60
WATTEL Marie
World Aquatics Championships 2023
OQT
53.59

Great Britain
2 ANDERSON Freya
British National Championships 2023
OQT
53.48
HOPKIN Anna
World Aquatics Championships 2024
OQT
53.09

Hong Kong
1 HAUGHEY Siobhán
World Aquatics Swimming World Cup Berlin 2023
OQT
52.02
   
Netherlands
1 STEENBERGEN Marrit
World Aquatics Championships 2024
OQT
52.26
   
People's Republic of China
2 WU Qingfeng
Chinese National Championships 2024
OQT
53.25
YANG Junxuan
Chinese National Championships 2024
OQT
52.68

Sweden
1 COLEMAN Michelle
World Aquatics Championships 2023
OQT
53.41
 
 

United States of America
2 Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 1
TBD
OQT
X
Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 2
TBD
OQT
X
 
As you can see, there are currently 13 projected qualifiers and to be honest, it's hard to see who else could reach that time. Sarah Sjoestroem has also gone under the OQT of 53.61 but she's already said she's not swimming this event so I've removed her. And of these swimmers, there's a chance they all won't be picked by their National Federations to swim it. Gastaldello and Wattel have both only reached the OQT once during the qualification period. There's a good chance they don't swim the time at French Trials so I'm not sure what the French Swimming Federation do about that. Freya Anderson was sick during British Trials so she didn't swim the time required at Trials. Not sure if British Swimming will let her swim this event either. Everyone else with an OQT should be fine.
 
Most events have over 20 qualifiers or at least in the high teens. So why so few qualifiers in this event (especially when both the 50m and 200m freestyle events have 20 qualifiers)? Well let's take a look at who the top 14 athletes were at the 2020 Olympic heats and what their qualification status is today.
 
1.  Emma McKeon (52.13) - Achieved OQT
2.  Siobhan Haughey (52.70) - Achieved OQT
3.  Anna Hopkin (52.75) - Achieved OQT
4.  Cate Campbell (52.80) - Achieved OQT
5.  Sarah Sjoestroem (52.91) - Achieved OQT, wont swim this event
6.  Penny Oleksiak (52.95) - Injured in late 2022, didn't get back to form until Canadian Trials, missed OQT by 0.05 seconds
7.  Pernille Blume (52.96)- Retired
8.  Yang Junxuan (53.02) - Achieved OQT
9.  Femke Heemskerk (53.10) - Retired
10.  Kayla Sanchez (53.12) - Started representing the Philippines last year. Hasn't come close to breaking 54 second since, let alone 53.61
11.  Abbey Weitzeil (53.21) - Achieved OQT
12.  Michelle Coleman (53.53) - Achieved OQT
13.  Signe Bro (53.54) - Times peaked in Tokyo. Has only been under 54 seconds once since then. Failed to reach OQT.
14.  Freya Anderson (53.61) - Achieved OQT
 
So of the 14, 9 have reached the OQT (of which one won't swim this event), two have retired, and 3 have declined in performance.
 
If we go further down the heat list,  Charlotte Bonnet (53.67) isn't focusing on freestyle anymore,  Marie Wattel (53.71) does have the OQT but has only reached it once this qualification period,  Ranomi Kromowidjojo (53.71) retired,  Erika Brown (now Connolly) (53.87) doesn't have the OQT,  Wu Qingfeng (53.87) does have the OQT,  Maria Kameneva (53.92) is banned,  Barbora Seemanova (53.98) has the consideration time so she could swim it, and I'm not sure what happened with  Andrea Murez (54.01) but she doesn't have the OQT either. Then there was a huge gap in times after Murez with the next fastest being 54.69. So of the top 22 swimmers from the Tokyo Olympic heats, only 11 swimmers have achieved the OQT.
 
Another problem is that hardly any swimmers have emerged or broken out in this event over the last 3 years. If we don't include athletes from the US, Australia or China, only  Marrit Steenbergen has had a breakthrough.
 
So let's take a look at the 2023 World Championships to see what kind of field we were dealing with.
 
 Haughey,  Weitzeil,  McKeon,  Wattel,  Coleman,  Steenbergen,  O'Callaghan,  Cheng Yujie were 1-8 in heats and all have the OQT.
 
#9 was  Stephanie Balduccini. Her PB is 54.05 set this year. She's still young though (19 years old) so if anyone not qualified yet could have a drop in time, it would be her.
 
Then #10,11, and 12 are  Gastaldello,  Kate Douglass, and  Yang who all have the time.
 
#13 was Sofia Morini. Her PB is 54.21 (0.8 seconds off the OQT).
#14 was  Aimee Canny. Her PB is 54.60 (almost a full second off the OQT). She is qualified in the 200m freestyle though.
#15 was  Signe Bro. Already talked about her.
#16 was  Rikako Ikee. Has been as fast as 52.79 before but hasn't swam the same since her leukemia diagnosis in 2019.
 
So as you can see, the field today is a lot less competitive than it was in Tokyo. At least most of these swimmers qualified in the relay events though. As a fan of swimming, it's just really frustrating to see athletes being unable to qualify because of insane qualification times compared to other events that have easier qualification times. Here's some other facts to show how absurd the OQT is:
 
 Summer McIntosh (who's best stroke is freestyle) has the OQT in the 100m backstroke and 100m butterfly and yet her PB is still 0.29 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT  Barbora Seemanova (primarily a 100 and 200m freestyler) has the 200m freestyle OQT, even has the 400m freestyle and 100m butterfly OQTs (two events she doesn't specialize in) and yet is still 0.15 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT  Kornelia Fiedkiewicz is ranked 22nd this year in both the 50 and 100m freestyle events. She has the OQT in the 50m freestyle but yet is still 0.4 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT  Alex Shackell (freestyler and butterflyer) has the OQT's in the 200m freestyle, 100m butterfly and 200m butterfly and is still off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.5 seconds  Mary-Sophie Harvey has had a breakout meet at Canadian Trials this year. She beat the 100m butterfly OQT by 0.6 seconds, beat the 200m freestyle OQT by 1.8 seconds but was still off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.1 seconds. Maggie MacNeil (who's second best stroke is freestyle) was also off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.03 seconds. Yet she has the OQT in the 100m backstroke (her 3rd best stroke) during an event she wasn't tapered in.  
So in conclusion, there will be very few qualifiers through the OQT, the heats will be uneventful, and there's a good chance we'll see multiple universality athletes reach the semifinals. 
 
The other events that have a concerning number of qualifiers are the women's distance events but at least they go directly to finals after heats. I could do another post about those events if you guys are interested.