Equestrian Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games

[dcro 10,210]

Big news for South Africa. After many, many attempts, Laurienne Dittmann finally achieved the minimum eligibility score of 66% (66.087% in Hamburg today). She needs one more such result and then South Africa will be able to field a dressage team.

[dcro 10,210]

June rankings are starting to come out...

 

Dressage simulation

Group A - 

Group B - 

Group C -

Groups D/E - 

Group F - 

Group G - 

Additional - 

 

Full rankings here. 

[dcro 10,210]

Eventing simulation

Group A - 

Group B - 

Group C -

Group D - 

Group E - 

Group F - N/A N/A

Group G - N/A

Additional -

Reallocation (provisional) -

 

Czech qualification in eventing would be grand.

 

Full rankings here. 

[ahjfcshfghb 287]

56 minutes ago, dcro said:

Eventing simulation

Group A - 

Group B - 

Group C -

Group D - 

Group E - 

Group F - N/A N/A

Group G - N/A

Additional -

Reallocation (provisional) -

 

Czech qualification in eventing would be grand.

 

Full rankings here. 

No way!!! 

[dcro 10,210]

Interesting how FEI still hasn't allocated the venue for Group F dressage qualification.

 

I guess they perhaps plan to award the quota based on rankings, since probably only South Africa would compete anyway. Palestine has two riders, but it is doubtful whether they can find the third.

Edited June 5, 2019 by dcro

[dcro 10,210]

New jumping rankings are out too.

 

Jumping simulation

Group A -

Group B - 

Group C -

Group F -

Group G -

Additional -

 

Full rankings here. 

 

It's looking good for Latvia, although Lithuania interestingly had a stronger month and narrowed the gap.

Edited June 7, 2019 by dcro

[dcro 10,210]

On 07/06/2019 at 18:43, dcro said:

It's looking good for Latvia, although Lithuania interestingly had a stronger month and narrowed the gap.

 

If it was looking good for Latvia last week, then now it's looking seriously good.

 

Few days ago Neretnieks won Poznan Grand Prix, and this week he already added another 1st and 2nd place in Sopot. With all that he earned 260 points in just 5 days! Holy shit.  

[dcro 10,210]

Huadong Sun apparently jumped clear in Strzegom, with not too many time penalties, but... He missed a jump along the way! Very unusual for this level, but perhaps not surprising given his experience.

 

Anyway, obviously he got eliminated from the event and can no longer fulfill the minimum requirements. Additionally, he has to wait a full month before he is allowed to make a new attempt on this horse.

[hckošice 14,836]

Updated as of June 30th, 2019

[dcro 10,210]

And we have reached the mid-way point of the qualification period. Here are the updated individual qualification simulations for dressage and eventing...

 

DRESSAGE

Group A (2) - 

Denmark remains the main favorite for team qualification at the European Championships in Rotterdam. Interestingly, this group only has 4 unqualified nations left, so if Ireland or Finland also qualify a team (it is possible), then Norway would qualify by default.

 

Group B (2) - 

It was a strong June for Austria and Switzerland, who now replace France and Luxembourg in the provisional qualifying positions. It will be much harder for Luxembourg and Portugal than I anticipated, but I still believe they will make in the end. Belgium can be dangerous too.

 

Group C (2) -

Ukraine is all but safe, while Belarus moves into a qualifying position thanks to the Russian team qualification. It looks as though Belarus, Poland, Estonia and Slovakia will battle for the second spot.

 

Groups D/E (4) - 

Canada will gain a team quota, no doubt, just like Brazil or Mexico (Brazil interestingly still doesn't have anyone ranked, so they may struggle with minimum requirements). This group has been a disappointment though. Dominican Republic is safe for an individual spot, but that's about it. Chile is holding a spot however their rider is nowhere near the minimum requirements at this point. Just like Brazil; Argentina, Bermuda and Ecuador still haven't entered a single qualification event...

 

Group F (2) - 

South Africa should be able to qualify a team (provided Dittmann gets the second MER score). Palestine will move into a provisional qualification position when that happens.

 

Group G (2) -

While Singapore is leading the way, it very much looks as though Group G will have the same qualifiers as in Rio 2016 (New Zealand and South Korea).

 

Additional (1) - 

Henri Ruoste of Finland is holding the spot, but it is all but certain that some Group B nation will get this place in the final analysis.

 

 

Detailed rankings - HERE.

 

 

 

EVENTING
Group A (2) -

Netherlands and Sweden could both qualify through European Championships and/or Nations Cup. If that happens, then the Group A spots will be contested between Denmark and Finland.

 

Group B (2) -

Switzerland is almost a safe qualifier individually, but they have a chance for a team qualification as well. Once again, Group B should be the most competitive, with the likes of Switzerland, Belgium, Italy, Austria and Spain battling for qualification.

 

Group C (2) -

Eastern European charge has started, so it may be hard for Czech Republic to keep their place. Czechia should still be able to qualify an additional spot if they can't handle Russia though.

 

Group D (2) -

It should change after the Pan Ams. These spots will likely remain unfilled.

 

Group E (2) -

Ecuador overtook Brazil in the latest simulation. This Group can be quite intriguing, especially if Brazil fails to qualify a team in Lima. Puerto Rican rider could put herself in a great position if she does well at the upcoming Rebecca Farm International.

 

Group F (2) - N/A N/A

Still nobody here. Both South Africa and Zimbabwe started comptitions, but failed to gain points. Zimbabwe will have its next attempt this weekend.

 

Group G (2) -

Both India and Hong Kong need to complete a long format competition in order to meet the minimum requirements. If successful, they should look good for qualification (provided they don't get screwed by China and/or Thailand).

 

Additional (6) -

 

Reallocation (+2) -

 

Not much to discuss among the additional/reallocated spots. A lot can still change here.

 

 

Detailed rankings - HERE.