How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2018 version)

[phelps 7,664]

11 ore fa, OlympicsFan ha scritto:

1) If the number of people practicing hig level sport and the overall budget remained the same, than it wouldn't be logical that the number of italian medals stays at the same level over the years. GB, Japan, China and some eastern european countries invested more and more money over the last decade or so and globally the number of people who were able to practice certain sports constantly increased, so with the same money you should get less medals nowadays, of course this doesn't take the new events into consideration.

2) Makes sense, i didn't know that Italy was so good in karate and to be honest i don't care about those new sports. I think Italy should win 2 more medals in fencing, 1-2 more medals in shooting/archery and at least 1 more medal in swimming (although i don't see Quadarella winning a medal at the olympics), so this should easily be enough for at least 30 medals, although i am not sure whether 10-12 golds are a lock (Again: I don't know how good Italy is in karate, are there any safe italian golds in karate?).

 

1) it makes sense, since we spread our resources all around in many sports, so we can compensate the tops and flops every time...

moreover, we have those 2 "core sports" (fencing and clay target shooting) which always guarantee the most of our medals with a certain regularity...then the other disciplines are just for the cosmetics" of our medal table (and, as I wrote, sometimes it's judo, sometimes it's swimming and sometimes is something else doing this "job")...

that's how I explain our really constant results at the Summer Games (but, as I wrote before, it's just my personal interpretation, not "the truth about it")...

 

2) we are not a real powerhouse in Karate, but we have "tradition" and many good athletes that in a given day can even win the world title (it has happened more than once)...

at the moment we have 3 "sure contenders" (women's Kata -with more than 1 girl fighting for the spot, women's -55kg Kumite and men's -75kg Kumite), who are currently among the top 3 Nations in their respective classes (and they are all veterans who already won world and European titles) and 2 young rising stars (-68kg women's Kumite and +84kg men's Kumite, with Simone Marino who already won the senior European Champs at 20 last year)...

however, in this sport the situation is even worse than the early days of Taekwondo...referees and judges are a real problem...and there's nothing "safe"...

in Tokyo I expect a Japanese domination, almost a clean sweep of the Gold medals (the 2 Kata Gold medals are already written in the standings...they don't even need to start the competiton)...and I expect Italy to win those 3 medals I already named "sure contenders"...anything more than that would be a pleasant surprise (and, as I wrote 2 days ago, with this qualification pathway -just 10 spots per class, with Japan taking one place; Continental representation granted, even if in Karate all Continents are strong, also Africa; and 1 tripartite place when Japan don't use their host quota because they qualify via world ranking -which is likely to happen in all the classes- it's gonna be a lot more difficult to qualify than winning a medal once you fly to the Games)...

[gvaisakh 23]

This is too early to make any prediction. So this will be my casual prediction (going with my gut feeling)

 

Archery - 1 medal

Badminton - 2 medals

Boxing - 1 medal

Field Hockey - 1 medal

Shooting - 2 medals

Weightlifting - 1 medal

Wrestling - 2 medals

 

TOTAL - 10 medals

[CCB 563]

Netherlands!! It's a bit early, but we can improve our Rio-score (19):

 

Archery: 1 medal (men’s team)

Athletics: 2 medals (Schippers and Hassan)

Badminton: -

Basketball: -

Boxing: -

Canoeing slalom: -

Canoeing sprint: -

Cycling road: 2 medals (time trail men and women)

Cycling track: 3 medals (men’s team sprint, keirin, women’s omnium)

BMX: 1 medal

Mountainbike: 2 medals (van der Poel and Tauber)

Diving: -

Equestrian: 1 medal (team dressage)

Fencing: -

Field hockey: 2 medals

Football: -

Golf: -

Rhythmic gymnastics: -

Trampoline: -

Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal (Deurloo or Zonderland or S. Wevers or Thorsdottir)

Handball: -

Judo: 1 medal (Grol or Polling)

Modern pentathlon: -

Rowing: 3 medals (W4-, W4x, LW2-)

Rugby: -

Sailing: 4 medals (RSX men, RSX women, Finn, 470 women)

Shooting: -

Swimming: 2 medals (open water 1, pool 1)

Synchronized swimming: -

Table tennis: -

Taekwondo: -

Tennis: -

Triathlon: -

Volleyball: -

Beach volleyball: -

Water polo: -

Weightlifting: -

Wrestling: -

[Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo 142]

Il 8/3/2018 Alle 15:49, OlympicsFan ha scritto:

Thanks for bringing that up! I just "discovered" one of the most amazing (in my opinion) coincidences in olympic/sports history.

Have a look at Italy's results (number of golds/medals in total) at the last 3 summer olympics ... just incredible!

 

Back to your original point:

1) Why must the italian goal always be to win 30-35 medals, 10-12 of them in gold?

2) Why do you think that it will be easy?

The italian goal must be every time 30-35 medals, for the italian movement, for size, for tradiction. Our history is that, 10 gold medals are the border.

In tokyo will be easier than Rio, thanks to new sports. Complete fencing program, madison in Cycling track, 800 SL in swimming, mixed events in shooting, karate, too, are good opportunity. 

[Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo 142]

Il 7/3/2018 Alle 17:04, phelps ha scritto:

l

...Skateboard: - (we have some amazing young talents, but I don't think we'll be allowed to steal the show to the traditional powerhouses of this activity -Brazil and USA)...

 

we have ivan federico fifth in wolrd ranking and bronze in last world championship, and a little child, Asia Lanzi, now 15 in the world. 

[nitinsanker 202]

On 3/10/2018 at 16:23, gvaisakh said:

This is too early to make any prediction. So this will be my casual prediction (going with my gut feeling)

 

Archery - 1 medal

Badminton - 2 medals

Boxing - 1 medal

Field Hockey - 1 medal

Shooting - 2 medals

Weightlifting - 1 medal

Wrestling - 2 medals

 

TOTAL - 10 medals

Archery i feel is unlikely unless they move up amazingly in the next one year and i am tired of hoping from our hockey team and possibly just one from wrestling .... but the rest are doable ...... but waiting for the world championship in shooting...... also neeraj has the potential ...... i think world championship medals in the 2018-19 cycle will give us the best indicators..... currently we have 1 in wrestling and boxing i think and 2 in badminton and one in weightlifting..... 5 excluding shooting and possibly 7 

[merlinsbeard 22]

For Turkey:

 

Wrestling: 2 golds, 1 silver, 2 bronze

Taekwondo: 1 gold, 1 bronze

Karate: 1 silver, 1 bronze

Athletics: 2 bronze

 

In total: 3 golds, 2 silvers, 6 bronze

[George_D 1,202]

On 1/18/2018 at 02:25, vinipereira said:

Super early predictions indeed, but let's see.

 

I guess Brazil's situation can be compared only to Greece among the recent hosts:

 

Greece
Medals in Sydney: 13 (4 golds)
Medals in Athens: 16 (6 golds)
Medals in Beijing: 3 (no golds)

 

Brazil:
Medals in London: 17 (3 golds)
Medals in Rio: 19 (7 golds)
Medals in Tokyo: ???

 

If we're talking about total medals, Brazil and Greece didn't improve a lot at home compared to the previous edition, but had a very good result counting gold medals only. I expect a fall of those numbers for Tokyo, maybe not so big like Greece's, but right now I'm predicting 12 medals. (for this prediction, I won't predict the "colors", because it's too early for this)

 

Sports that gaves us medals in almost every edition since 1996

 

Volleyball/Beach Volleyball: 2 to 3 medals should be reachable.
Judo: 2 to 3 medals. I think we have a good chance at the new team event.
Football: 1 medal, but now that we have a gold, will we care to send the best team?
Sailing: 1 medal.

 

Total: 5-8 medals

 

 

Sports that occasionally gave us medals in the last two decades

 

Athletics/Swimming: I think we can reach 2 medals from the two big sports combined, or at least 1 (Open water?).
Canoeing: 1 medal should be possible if Isaquias mantains his level.
Boxing/Taekwondo: 1 medal, but I could easily see Brazil getting none here.
Equestrian/Gymnastics/Modern Pentathlon/Shooting: maybe 1 medal among these.

 

Total: 2-5 medals

 

 

The other sports (including the "new" ones)

 

Basketball: the only other sport not previously mentioned in which we have medals. Pretty sure we won't return to the podium in Tokyo (we won't even qualify).
Karate/Skateboarding/Surfing: If everything goes according to plan, we should get at least 2 medals among those. If not, at least 1 medal.
Other sports: unless some new name rises, I don't think we will medal in a new sport (except for the ones included for the first time in Tokyo). Tennis should be a possibility, but Melo/Soares aren't great playing together.

 

Total: 1-2 medals

 

Pessimistic: 8 medals
Optmistic: 15 medals
Early prediction: 12 medals

 

Greece was hit by doping scandal before Beijing in athletics and weightlifting. Thats why the harsh drop in medals. Brazil is different case. I think they will be at 16-18 total medals with 4-5 golds

Edited May 24, 2018 by George_D

[Fly_like_a_don 1,081]

On 3/8/2018 at 03:10, JoshMartini007 said:

Here are my predictions based off of 2017 results. Note, not all events had world championships/equivalents, biggest being women's boxing and equestrian. Weightlifting has been adjusted due to many nations missing out (though the nations missing out aren't compensated). Also nations with only one medal chance have been rounded down to 0 and I have not excluded any athletes which have retired.

 

United States - 102

Russia - 61

China - 60

Great Britain - 46

France - 44

Japan - 43

Germany - 37

Australia - 30

Italy - 29

Canada - 26

Netherlands - 26

Poland - 24

South Korea - 22

Hungary - 21

Spain - 21

Ukraine - 18

Brazil - 16

New Zealand - 15

Belarus - 12

Czech Republic - 12

Turkey - 12

Cuba - 11

Switzerland - 10

Denmark - 9

Iran - 9

Kenya - 9

Serbia - 9

Sweden - 9

Colombia - 8

Georgia - 8

Mexico - 8

Azerbaijan - 7

Belgium - 7

Croatia - 7

Jamaica - 7

Uzbekistan - 7

Ethiopia - 6

India - 6

Kazakhstan - 6

Lithuania - 6

Mongolia - 6

Chinese Taipei - 6

Greece - 5

Norway - 5

Romania - 5

Slovakia - 5

Slovenia - 5

South Africa - 5

Thailand - 5

Austria - 4

Bulgaria - 4

Portugal - 4

Bahrain - 3

Dominican Republic - 3

Egypt - 3

Estonia - 3

Hong Kong - 3

Israel - 3

Morocco - 3

North Korea - 3

Trinidad and Tobago - 3

Venezuela - 3

Argentina - 2

Armenia - 2

Bahamas - 2

Botswana - 2

Chile - 2

Ecuador - 2

Finland - 2

Indonesia - 2

Ireland - 2

Latvia - 2

Malaysia - 2

Qatar - 2

Singapore - 2

Tunisia - 2

Vietnam - 2

Albania - 1

Cote d'Ivoire - 1

Cyprus - 1

Eritrea - 1

Fiji - 1

Guatemala - 1

Kyrgyzstan - 1

Moldova - 1

Montenegro - 1

Nigeria - 1

Puerto Rico - 1

Tajikistan - 1

Turkmenistan - 1

Zambia - 1

 

That's a brave prediction. North Korea -3 and Argentina -2 .Also I'm surprised at India with 6.India is too unpredictable sometimes. For example in Shooting India got 13 medals in Mexico  world cup 2018 but dropped to zero in Munich 5 months later. So India can get anything between 0 to 5 and a zero won't surprise me.

Archery - Though the rankings are good no medals expected. 

Boxing - 1 medal at most or zero 

Badminton -1-2 possible. At least 1 is expected. 

Wrestling - 0 to 2

Weightlifting - 1.to 2 May be the best chance of a 1st  Olympics female gold 

Hockey ,Tennis-.0 in all probability 

If finishing 4th in Rio has made Dipa work harder she can get a medal at vault. But she is on a recovery  

 

[NMQ 243]

Between 2-4. Judo, hockey and saling the usual suspects, with tennis and other teams sports there too. Let´s see what happens two years from now, but with the current economic crisis hitting the budget and the YOG class developing for the next cycles I don´t expect big things in Tokyo.