[OFF TOPIC] Politics Thread

[MHSN 3,661]

  On 6/19/2021 at 10:39 PM, Vic Liu said:

So to be short, Raeisi is pickep by Khamenei and expected to be the next no.1 person so Khamenei disqualified all his real rivals to help him win. Do I get it right?

 

And another question what changes can we expect when the ultra conservative president take over the moderate one, both domestically and diplomatically?

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not as simple as that. things are more complicated than that in Iran. Khameneyi has the ultimate power obviously but he doesn't necessarily use it every time. because he always wants to wash his hands from possible disasters. all 4 presidents during his era are now "bad guys". it was always their fault, not him !

 

if Khameneyi dies today there is nobody to replace him. absolutely not. but it's clear that in past 3 years they are trying to image Raeisi as some kind of superman who solves everything. to me this is a clear sign of what's next for him. of course politics in Iran is unpredictable. who knows what will happen when Khameneyi dies . but I believe that's the plan.

 

he lost an election. you can't be the supreme leader when you are a loser, you are supposed to look "popular".  he had to win an election to be ready for that position (in case). the guardian council (directly appointed by Khameneyi) disqualified everybody to make sure he wins. if you check the official results. the number of "void" votes beat the other candidates and finished 2nd !

 

internationally I don't think that changes much. at least not at the moment. they are not going to start a war because they want Raeisi to improve the economy. ( or at least let people think he did) from now on the world will hear just one voice from Iran. the ultraconservative voice. but most of these guys are highly uneducated. I read from western diplomats how much they were pissed off when they had to talk with someone like Jalili. there won't be someone smart like Zarif around to solve the problems.

 

domestically. maybe it helps the economy. (just maybe I'm not sure) they didn't want Rouhani to succeed, they created lots of problems for him. that won't happen when one of their guy is in office. but it will be disastrous for people's freedom or things like that. I'm 100% sure we will have more internet restrictions. they are going to monitor people much more. more restrictions for women, I won't be surprised if they completely cut off Iranian people from the global internet. (probably not from the start, but they are going to that direction slowly, or at least they are thinking about it)

[konig 1,510]

  On 6/19/2021 at 10:42 PM, MHSN said:

I know most politicians around the world are corrupt and most of them have blood on their hands (either people in their own country or in other countries) but this is a different case.

 

and I'm not that kind of person to get stuck in the past. it's about the future. I know how people like him think and act. they are dangerous for humankind. it's just hard to explain these things to non-Iranians because most people have a completely different and wrong image about Iran. as I said the president doesn't have the ultimate power here but still plays a big role "at least in local matters". I lived under 4 different presidents. I know the difference. guys like him can easily lead us to a war.

 

I promised to myself to never vote after what happened in 2009. but had to break my own promise in 2017 because I was afraid of this guy 4 years ago but I guess he was inevitable. we just postponed the disaster.

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Imagine he solve the economical problems, for you, the problems with Israel and U.S.A will increase quickly?, and what will happen with the iranian nuclear program?.

 

I admit i see the shiites like clearly most anti-westerns than the sunnis and more fanatics.

[MHSN 3,661]

  On 6/19/2021 at 11:13 PM, konig said:

Imagine he solve the economical problems, for you, the problems with Israel and U.S.A will increase quickly?, and what will happen with the iranian nuclear program?.

 

I admit i see the shiites like clearly most anti-westerns than the sunnis and more fanatics.

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the president doesn't call the shots here in those matters, that's still up to Khameneyi and nothing will change. yes the president matters but not "that much". and the nuclear program is the only bargaining chip they have. they are not going to give that up easily.

 

PS: as much as I hate these guys which is very clear from what I wrote. I partially support some of their foreign policies. that's what I learned in past 4 years.

 

I'm not religious myself, not at all. but you are very wrong. I'm not going to write more about this because there are good and bad people everywhere, in each country, in each religion.

[heywoodu 15,353]

  On 6/19/2021 at 11:42 PM, MHSN said:

I'm not going to write more about this because there are good and bad people everywhere, in each country, in each religion.

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Anyhow, it's always very interesting (although sadly not very positive at all usually) when you're explaining stuff about Iran on here. I think there are few countries of which it's harder to get an at least half-informed opinion without having actually lived there or something like that, both because it's so incredibly complicated with what feels like a million differeny layers to everything, and because of the language issues.

 

I'm trying to read about this stuff on Wikipedia every now and then (at least it's in English), but usually I find myself distracted because of all the complications. So yeah, it is very, very much appreciated to have someone with all the patience and knowledge about Iran come and answer our questions not only about weightlifting, but also about way more serious things like this. No way we're going to understand Iran this way of course, but at least we'll know a lot more and that counts.

[MHSN 3,661]

  On 6/19/2021 at 11:53 PM, heywoodu said:

Anyhow, it's always very interesting (although sadly not very positive at all usually) when you're explaining stuff about Iran on here. I think there are few countries of which it's harder to get an at least half-informed opinion without having actually lived there or something like that, both because it's so incredibly complicated with what feels like a million differeny layers to everything, and because of the language issues.

 

I'm trying to read about this stuff on Wikipedia every now and then (at least it's in English), but usually I find myself distracted because of all the complications. So yeah, it is very, very much appreciated to have someone with all the patience and knowledge about Iran come and answer our questions not only about weightlifting, but also about way more serious things like this. No way we're going to understand Iran this way of course, but at least we'll know a lot more and that counts.

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you are welcome

 

I know most people have a wrong idea about Iran, and I don't blame them, things are too much complicated here for anybody to understand (even for people here sometimes) when I answer a question I try to give an honest answer, (that's hard sometimes when you are biased but I try)

 

I read news websites from both sides and it's like reading about two completely different countries lol. right now both sides are celebrating. regime supporters are happy because their candidate won and they say "see we had 50% turnout" (they nicely ignore 14% void ballots which clearly had a message) and the so called opposition also says "yyyaaayyyy more than 50% boycotted the election". (and that's it all they have no other plan) I don't know who really won yesterday but I know the people of Iran lost. it was a lose lose situation after all.

 

there are some people inside the regime that prefer to create another North Korea, (which is easier to rule) and I believe Raeisi is one of them. that's why I was very concerned about him. but the inevitable happened. the only thing that gives me hope that things are unpredictable in Iran. maybe something good comes out of this so called election after all. at least from now on they can't blame anybody else for their failure.

[Agger 1,664]

For the first time ever a Swedish Prime Minister has lost a vote of no confidence. The Social Democratic prime minister, Stefan Löfven, now has a week to resign or call for a new election, The strange thing is that the proces started by his resignation may very well lead to Löfven as prime minister again!

[Belle 986]

  On 6/21/2021 at 9:02 AM, Agger said:

For the first time ever a Swedish Prime Minister has lost a vote of no confidence. The Social Democratic prime minister, Stefan Löfven, now has a week to resign or call for a new election, The strange thing is that the proces started by his resignation may very well lead to Löfven as prime minister again!

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I’m so sad now. I’m worried about Sweden’s future. 

[lapaj 382]

https://www.ruptly.tv/en/videos/20210617-072-Greece--Fence-under-construction-on-border-with-Turkey-amid-lull-in-migrant-arrivals

 

 

[Vektor 3,326]

  On 6/22/2021 at 4:26 PM, prso1000 said:

All ok but still sad that Germany even has to think about this idea to protest against Hungary. 
sad that we have such things in Hungary and Europe. 
Obviously not all Hungarians support this but majority seems to do  and Hungary as country deserves at least some type of sanctions implemented. 
 

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Following up on this from the EURO2020 thread:

 

Sanctions would be ridiculous against a (likely) popular law from a popular government of a sovereign country. It would also help Orbán to win a couple of more elections, he would double down on the notion that liberalism is an invading ideology that other countries want to force us to follow, similarly to how communism was forced on Hungarians by foreigners for many decades. This is what Orbán wants, more focus on a "liberalism vs. conservatism" debate which he can easily win in Hungary, and less focus on stuff that can lose him a lot of votes, like our growing debt to China and all other kinds of corruption. This is why the united opposition is a mix of ideologies, including conservatives who support that anti-LGBT law, that's the only way there's a chance for a win against a major right-wing party in Hungary. 

[prso1000 683]

  On 6/22/2021 at 4:51 PM, Vektor said:

Following up on this from the EURO2020 thread:

 

Sanctions would be ridiculous against a (likely) popular law from a popular government of a sovereign country. It would also help Orbán to win a couple of more elections, he would double down on the notion that liberalism is an invading ideology that other countries want to force us to follow, similarly to how communism was forced on Hungarians by foreigners for many decades. This is what Orbán wants, more focus on a "liberalism vs. conservatism" debate which he can easily win in Hungary, and less focus on stuff that can lose him a lot of votes, like our growing debt to China and all other kinds of corruption. This is why the united opposition is a mix of ideologies, including conservatives who support that anti-LGBT law, that's the only way there's a chance for a win against a major right-wing party in Hungary. 

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So when he starts to deport gays and Roma and Jews you would still let him do otherwise he will increase his win at the next elections. 
 

just listen to yourself. Ultimately you can do whatever you want in your country, but don’t expect that you are still invited to all parties. And yes I would stop any flow of money to Hungary from EU.