[OFF TOPIC] Politics Thread

[Monzanator 4,507]

1 minute ago, Dolby said:

I think Bernie would be able to retain the Black/Hispanic vote. Not sure what is the voting preference of Jews but I think it normally leans towards Dems but may swing to Trump in case of Trump v Bernie. Another Dem group that might swing to Trump or abstain instead of voting for Bernie is Indian-Americans, but only first generation ones. But both these groups are not that big in number that it would make any difference. Biggest issue for Dems is how many moderates and independents would vote for Bernie and what impact would selecting an independent have on party structure. 

 

Trump is the most Israel-friendly POTUS ever while Obama had some run-ins with Netanyahu IIRC. I'd say the US Jews will support Trump in a landslide.

[hckošice 14,836]

All votes counted.

 

65.80 % attendance. which is really a pretty big amount in Slovak perspective.

 

 

6 Parties will be in the parliament.

 

Hard luck for the liberal/Antifaschist coalition Progresivne Slovensko/Spolu (Progressive Slovakia/Together) they earned 6.97 % (but as a coalition the threshold to enter the parliament is 7 %) so they will miss the parliament and expected governement coalition by 0.03 %

 

 

The 6 parliament parties will be :

 

1. OĽANO (Ordinary peoples and independent personalities)  25.03 % 

the new winner (probably a european or even worldwide exception, since it is not a standard political party but a movement of different peoples fighting against the corrupted previous ruling party who was linked to the mafia and oligarchs)

2. Smer-SD (Direction-Social Democracy)  18.29 %

(Long time ruling party, they governed our country the last 12 years  but the recent cases of corruption, and especially the murder of investigative journalist and his fiancee which was revealed to be orderd by a oligarch linked to the former leader of this party)

3. Sme Rodina (We are Family)  8.24 % 

(Populist right-center oriented party, led by a millionaire who is quite famous in "Gossip" for having around 10 kids with I don´t know 5-6 different womens)

4. ĽSNS (Peoples Party Our Slovakia)  7.97 % 

(The Marian Kotleba´s notoriously unfamous Neo-Nazi party)

5. PS/Spolu  (Progressive Slovakia/Together)  6.97 %

(Ultra Liberal and Antifaschist coalition) Sadly as coalition they had to reach 7 % to enter the parliament, they missed it by incredible 0.3 %

6. SAS (Freedom and Solidarity)  6.22 % 

(Moderated Liberal, Right-Center party)

7. Za Ľudí  (For the Peoples)  5.77 %

(Liberal party of the former president Andrej Kiska)

 

 

Important to notice also that for the first time ever since the independence there will not be any Hungarian Minority party in the parliament !!!

MKO-MKS Hungarian Coalition finished 9th with 3.90 % and Most-Hid finished 13th wth only 2.03 %

 

Also the Slovak National Party SNS finished far behind the 5% threshold, (interesting enough the Kotleba´s Nazis sickheads are the only nationalistic party in this parliament now, and there were 5 different far right/nationalistic parties entering the elections)

 

 

 

 

The Parliament seats distribution (remember there 150 seats, so the majority is 76)

 

Possible very likely coalition

OĽANO - 53, SAS - 13, ZA ĽUDÍ - 12  + maybe SME RODINA - 17

Opposition

SMER-SD - 38 + maybe SME RODINA - 17 + maybe (not likely anyone will work with them) ĽSNS - 17

 

 

 

[Agger 1,663]

2 hours ago, Olympian1010 said:

Well, Sanders leads every Super Tuesday poll, so it may be a short lived victory. South Carolina likes remembering battle losers anyway 

 

You should check your polling once again

[VolleyRuller96 264]

Regardless if Sanders wins the preliminaries I think this is a huge success for him already.

Edited March 1, 2020 by VolleyRuller96

[Olympian1010 7,977]

9 hours ago, Monzanator said:

 

Warren has a better shot to beat Trump in heads-up poker than Sanders & Biden? I thought the same was said about Hilary Clinton and look how that ended. Women voting for another woman shouldn't be taken for granted after Clinton's failure.

No, it has to do with whom people say they’d be willing to vote for as a second choice, and who has support that crosses the various ideological groups in the party. Even I would be willing to support Warren.

[Olympian1010 7,977]

9 hours ago, Dolby said:

I think Bernie would be able to retain the Black/Hispanic vote. Not sure what is the voting preference of Jews but I think it normally leans towards Dems but may swing to Trump in case of Trump v Bernie. Another Dem group that might swing to Trump or abstain instead of voting for Bernie is Indian-Americans, but only first generation ones. But both these groups are not that big in number that it would make any difference. Biggest issue for Dems is how many moderates and independents would vote for Bernie and what impact would selecting an independent have on party structure. 

Yep, you’ve stumbled on to the greatest issue or the Democratic Party. This is a fight for the heart of the left in the United States, and it’s a brutal one. It’s clear that that young voters are not happy with the right, with the status quo, or with more moderates. Most people I know, who are on the left, my age support Bernie or Warren. Most of their parents support Biden, Buttigieg, or Bloomberg.

 

As I’ve continuesly maintained, Jewish votes in the US tend to swing hard left, and Bernie would have their support. Indian-Americans are generally conservative, or at least seen as conservative, yes. Though again, younger Indian-Americans have actually started to become a little more left. Young Muslims are almost all on the left too. The biggest opposition group to the left in the US, besides your average conservatives, are the Protestants (aka Evangelicals). They swing hard, hard right and generally go against everything the Bible says and stands for when casting their votes.

 

Statistics and actual voting have shown that Sanders attracts the Independents. Where he loses a shiton of support is amongst Moderates, hence why I say this is a battle for the heart of the party more than for the office of President at this point. If we lose this election I’ll blame the Moderates once again instead of the Conservatives. 

[Olympian1010 7,977]

9 hours ago, Monzanator said:

 

Trump is the most Israel-friendly POTUS ever while Obama had some run-ins with Netanyahu IIRC. I'd say the US Jews will support Trump in a landslide.

I seriously don’t understand why you think that. Jews are one of the most far-left voting blocks in the US.

[Dolby 735]

2 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

I seriously don’t understand why you think that. Jews are one of the most far-left voting blocks in the US.

Trump shifted embassy to Jerusalem while Sanders considers Israeli settlements illegal. Jews are without doubt one of the most left-leaning bloc but be prepared for a shock in Trump v Sanders. 

[LDOG 2,418]

hace 30 minutos, Dolby dijo:

Trump shifted embassy to Jerusalem while Sanders considers Israeli settlements illegal. Jews are without doubt one of the most left-leaning bloc but be prepared for a shock in Trump v Sanders. 

 

You mean they won't show up to vote? Because there is simply no way you can vote Trump and still consider yourself a leftist of any sort.

[Olympian1010 7,977]

31 minutes ago, LDOG said:

 

You mean they won't show up to vote? Because there is simply no way you can vote Trump and still consider yourself a leftist of any sort.

Actually that’s not true because some people are voting for him with the sole intention of creating the perfect conditions for a era of progressive politics.