Wrestling Qualification for Summer Olympic Games 2016

[heywoodu 15,147]

7 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

Yes, in sports like wrestling with direct one on one matches you never see an Iranian competing with Israel, at least in near future. doesn't matter where and when, even in Olympic final.

 

usually when I receive the bracket, this the first thing I check.

 

No words...

 

I hope either the Israeli or Sourian loses before the semi's then, because the Iranian authorities who decide this f*ck with sports too much  

Obviously I'm hoping it'll be the Israeli who loses..

[MHSN 3,625]

4 minutes ago, intoronto said:

 

Hopefully the situation is averted.

Is the ISraeli good?

 

I hope so

 

he is good, he is a former world junior bronze medalist, probably originally from Ukraine, I expect him to win against Italy but I don't expect him to beat Ukraine in quarterfinal, but this is not a sure thing, so I give him something like 20% to reach the semies. Sourian better first thinks about his first two opponents before the Israeli guy. Lizatovic is no joke, the German guy also can causes problems for him.

[MHSN 3,625]

4 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

 

No words...

 

I hope either the Israeli or Sourian loses before the semi's then, because the Iranian authorities who decide this f*ck with sports too much  

Obviously I'm hoping it'll be the Israeli who loses..

 

Tell me about it

 

btw this is not just Iran, other middle eastern countries do the same , but they are just not good enough to cmpete in international competitions and you don't see them

 

actually here we have a Bahrain vs Israel in first round of 98kg, the Bahrani guy is a former world champion from Egypt. I won't surprise if he withdraws tomorrow, he would wrestle if he was wrestling for his own Egypt but policies are different in Bahrain.

[heywoodu 15,147]

1 minute ago, MHSN said:

 

Tell me about it

 

btw this is not just Iran, other middle eastern countries do the same , but they are just not good enough to cmpete in international competitions and you don't see them

 

actually here we have a Bahrain vs Israel in first round of 98kg, the Bahrani guy is a former world champion from Egypt. I won't surprise if he withdraws tomorrow, he would wrestle if he was wrestling for his own Egypt but policies are different in Bahrain.

Interesting (not in a good way). I heard about countries not accepting Israeli athletes, but not about other countries not allowing their athletes to compete against them. I know you've said something about it before somewhere, but I can't find it (I think on the old forum), so I'll ask it again:

 

What happens if Sourian says "fuck you" and competes against the Israeli guy anyway? And if both reach the semi's and Sourian withdraws, how does the Iranian media react to that? Do they headline something like "Politics cost our champion a chance to defend his gold"? 

[dcro 10,210]

6 minutes ago, MHSN said:

actually here we have a Bahrain vs Israel in first round of 98kg, the Bahrani guy is a former world champion from Egypt. I won't surprise if he withdraws tomorrow, he would wrestle if he was wrestling for his own Egypt but policies are different in Bahrain.

 

You never know though. Bahrain would spoil their investment if they don't allow him.

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor einer Stunde schrieb MHSN:

ok here is my preview

 

59kg

with 24 wrestlers the situation is quite unfair as we have 8 in top and 16 wrestlers in bottom half ! but luckily our wrestler is in top half this time. Sourian can't complain about the draw at all. out of his 10 possible serious opponents he got only two of them in this half, Lizatovic and Tsymbaliuk ! Sourian is the clear favorite here, even though he is in a bad shape but still I think he is capable of handle this draw, he lost in Mongolia only and only because he ran out of gas. which can also happen here if his opponents manage to tire him and resist for 4-5 minutes against him, Sourian's plan A is obviously trying to make a quick 8-0 score. otherwise second period will be really hard for him. beside those two wrestlers , he has one very serious problem in Israel ! I expect this guy to beat his Italian opponent but Ukraine can beat him in second round, but this is not guaranteed.

in bottom half we will have a hell of a competition. we have Angelov, Lashkhi, Amoyan and Modos plus the Turk. people know crazy things happen whenever Turkey hosts a competition, specially in wrestling. in a normal situation I would give more change to Aneglov but despite beating Sourian in mongolia he didn't impress at all, I want to make a bold guess here, I expect Islamov of Moldova to qualify !

I expect Iran and Moldova to qualify.

 

66kg

almost a balanced draw, in top half we have Ozel (former world medalist at 71), Vardanyan multiple World and Olympic medalists and a tough Chinese guy Zheng. plus few other guys from Moldova and USA. I would give a chance to Stas of BUL but he was terrible recently. it's hard to pick one wrestler in this half

bottm half we have a very tough match in first round Chunayev vs Etlinger, I expect the winner of this match to go all the way to the final but we still have few other decent wrestlers there, the Armenian guy wrestling for France, the Kazakh guy, Belarus and Tallroth of Sweden

I expect Turkey and Azerbaijan to qualify (and I hope I'm wrong)

 

75kg

easier top half as usual, we have an interesting first round match between Kobnov and Rosengren, this guy Kobonov wasn't around for a while, I used to like him in his prime days, not sure about his current shape beside these guys we have Pyshkov of Ukraine and a guy from Belarus and another one from Bulgaria , beside them I want to give a change to Escobar of Mexico, I hope he makes it even though his chance is slim.

in bottom half we have a 3 time world champion at home, Cebi which makes him a clear favorite he has to wrestle Eisele of Germany in second round, Eisele beat him in Mongolia but this time will be a different story in Istanbul ! Starcevic is another favorite in this part who can be Cebi's next opponent in quarterfinal , the winner of that match most probably will make it to Rio. but we also have few other guys like Kazakevic (who cut weight down to 75 after losing at 85) Besleaga of MDA and the Japanese guy. still Cebi is the favorite mostly because of having referees on his side.

I expect Ukraine and Turkey to qualify

 

85kg

the most mysterious wrestler is BACK again ! this Gadzhiev guy (Russian wrestling for Kazakhstan) shows himself every four year for the Olympics ! he won a bronze in London and we didn't see him in serious competitions after that until here ! I don't know about his current shape but he has a dream draw here, I see only the Georgian guy (and maybe Lithuania) as serious competition for him. the Greek guy is also not bad.

bottom half is a different story, there are so many favorites here, 2014 World Champion Noumonvi, Kudla of Germany, the Austrian guy Hrustanovic, Omarov, Zugaj and last but not least the Turkish guy with their superhuman power at home.  most of these guys wrestled in both Serbia and Mnogolia and failed, I expect them to be exhausted, because of that Kudla of Germany is my pick here. his second round match vs Noumonvi can be the decider. my favorite here is Hrustanovic, he beat Noumonvi at worlds and has his chance here, Zugaj was terrbie recently so I don't count on him but he has a good path to the semifinal if he beats the Turk, Basar is nothing special but he is wrestling at home, so ...

I expect Kazakhstan and Germany to qualfiy

 

98kg

There are 3 good wrestlers in top half, actually 2 and half since it's hard to consider Vala a big favorite here. so I think it will be between Hassler and Ildem. for whatever reason Germans didn't send Hassler to previous tournaments, if he is fit he has a good chance . their other guy Ohler beat both Turk wrestlers in prevoius tournaments (one of them was Ildem) The Polish guy here can make surprise

we have one interestling matchup in bottom half, Bahrain vs Israel, I wonder what's Bahrain's policy in this case ! withdrawal or what ? if he wrestles, Abdelfatah has a good chance to make it, still the favorite here is Gadabadze who has a bye in first round ,we also have Rau (USA), Saikawa (JPN) and few more wrestlers from Kazakhstan, Italy and Lithuania here

I expect Turkey and Azerbaijan to qualify

 

130kg

in top half we have two favorite Euren and Chugoshvili, with Banak and Metodiev behind them, I feel sad for Chugoshvili, this poor guy was unlucky in Serbia and Mongolia, I think he is exhausted here, which makes me giving more chance to Euren who was disappointing in Mongolia

in bottom half I see Kajaia as the favorite, he has an easy path to the semifinal against either Deak-bardos or Lithuania. Deak-Bardos is older than 40 he used to be a great wrestler but he is a grandpa now ! I pick Kajaia

I expect Sweden and Georgia to qualify.

 

 

Hassler was injured/ill and thats why he didnt compete at the previous events. I am very happy that he seems to be fit again and hopefully he will qualify. I think ist really weird that a naion can compete with 2 different athletes here but not at the olympic games. What happens if two athletes of the same nation reach the final/win a quota place?

I hope that Thiele (mens freestyle 97kg), Kudla (mens greco-roman 85kg), Hassler (mens greco-roman 98kg), Schellin (womens 48kg) and Eisele (mens greco-roman 75kg) can qualify, what are their chances in your opinion?

[MHSN 3,625]

16 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Interesting (not in a good way). I heard about countries not accepting Israeli athletes, but not about other countries not allowing their athletes to compete against them. I know you've said something about it before somewhere, but I can't find it (I think on the old forum), so I'll ask it again:

 

What happens if Sourian says "fuck you" and competes against the Israeli guy anyway? And if both reach the semi's and Sourian withdraws, how does the Iranian media react to that? Do they headline something like "Politics cost our champion a chance to defend his gold"? 

 

I'm quite sure Saudi Arabia, Syria and most probably Lebanon, Iraq and few more countries don't let their athletes compete against Israel, you never saw it happen because they are not that good to compete outside of Asia. I think in countries like Jordan it depends on athlete himself, they don't force athletes to withdraw or compete.

 

I said it before, even if you qualify, NOC has to confirm the quota , so it doesn't happen unless he gets permission for that.

 

about media react I can guess such headlines "Sourian sacrifices his chance to defend the people of Palestine" what you said will be written in Persian media "outside of Iran" while inside Iran, you should know media are not completely free. there are few "red lines" for them and Israel is one of them. btw they usually don't even use the word "Israel" but the "Zionist Regime"

[MHSN 3,625]

1 minute ago, OlympicsFan said:

Hassler was injured/ill and thats why he didnt compete at the previous events. I am very happy that he seems to be fit again and hopefully he will qualify. I think ist really weird that a naion can compete with 2 different athletes here but not at the olympic games. What happens if two athletes of the same nation reach the final/win a quota place?

I hope that Thiele (mens freestyle 97kg), Kudla (mens greco-roman 85kg), Hassler (mens greco-roman 98kg), Schellin (womens 48kg) and Eisele (mens greco-roman 75kg) can qualify, what are their chances in your opinion?

 

that's probably misunderstanding, nobody can enter two wrestlers in one weight ! I mean Ohler beat Ildem in Serbia and the other Turk in Mongolia.

 

I prefer to write about freestyle weights later after the draw but in Greco-Roman all of those 3 Germans have realistic chance to qualify. if Hassler is fit he is the favorite for the quota but there is one problem that all 3 of them have to beat Turkey ! Hassler's chance is better since he has only one serious competition in Ildem. (Ohler beat him easily but things are different in Istanbul)

Kudla was my pick at 85, but first he has to beat Noumonvi in second round (Azizsir beat him in Mongolia) then Hrustanovic and probably Basar of Turkey. not an easy task at all, 4 or 5 wrestlers there are capable of qualify.

The same story for Eisele , he has two tough matches to qualify, first against Cebi (the guy he beat easily in Mongolia) and then Starcevic. Turks are not that nice when they host, and this guy Cebi is a world champion.

 

Turkey used to be a Greco-Roman power, and they are still good and dangerous but so far they qualified only and only 1 wrestler ! I can promise you they will do EVERYTHING possible to qualify as much as possible here. and in Greco-Roman (unlike freestyle) refs can do whatever they want.

[heywoodu 15,147]

10 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

I'm quite sure Saudi Arabia, Syria and most probably Lebanon, Iraq and few more countries don't let their athletes compete against Israel, you never saw it happen because they are not that good to compete outside of Asia. I think in countries like Jordan it depends on athlete himself, they don't force athletes to withdraw or compete.

 

I said it before, even if you qualify, NOC has to confirm the quota , so it doesn't happen unless he gets permission for that.

 

about media react I can guess such headlines "Sourian sacrifices his chance to defend the people of Palestine" what you said will be written in Persian media "outside of Iran" while inside Iran, you should know media are not completely free. there are few "red lines" for them and Israel is one of them. btw they usually don't even use the word "Israel" but the "Zionist Regime"

 

Thanks again for the inside view 

 

If it does happen that they "meet", I hope you could show me some of the actual headlines

But mostly I hope they won't have to meet. 

[Gianlu33 4,574]

@MHSN For you italian athletes have any chance (Timoncini and Caneva) ?