Wrestling Qualification for Summer Olympic Games 2016

[JoshMartini007 2,538]

13 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

History is against him, we never qualified a wrestler in last world qualifier lol, we never had a full Greco team but this time indeed he has a good draw, unlike Astana and Ulanbaatar. but there is one serious problem for him, the Israeli guy.

 

btw people should know Sourian is the biggest athlete in Iran at the moment, and one of the best wrestlers of all time. for some non-sport reasons he has also so many enemies here in Iran waiting him to lose . that's why he was always under huge pressure but this time and this week he got much more support and headlines changed from "Sourian lost AGAIN" to "win or lose you are always a hero"

 

 

Is there any chance that Sourian will defy his federation and fight against Tsaryuk (should he reach the semis)? Or will he have no choice?

[dcro 10,210]

32 minutes ago, MHSN said:

btw do you know why Lizatovic didn't wrestle in Serbia and Mongolia ? injured or something ?

 

No news about that. My guess is that they saved him for the last chance qualifier.

[MHSN 3,625]

2 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

 

Is there any chance that Sourian will defy his federation and fight against Tsaryuk (should he reach the semis)? Or will he have no choice?

 

Actually I was talking about it with a friend, he won't do that unless they let him wrestle which is not possible, this is the federation decision, not the NOC, not sport ministry,

 

even if he qualifies he still needs NOC confirmation to be in Rio, that's not going to happen and he is not that stupid to do that, in Iran they usually pay Israel-forfeit athletes the same prize money as gold medal winners. this is not the Olympic itself though but still.

[mrv86 3,138]

hace 21 minutos, MHSN said:

 

Actually I was talking about it with a friend, he won't do that unless they let him wrestle which is not possible, this is the federation decision, not the NOC, not sport ministry,

 

even if he qualifies he still needs NOC confirmation to be in Rio, that's not going to happen and he is not that stupid to do that, in Iran they usually pay Israel-forfeit athletes the same prize money as gold medal winners. this is not the Olympic itself though but still.

 

Do you think Escobar (-75) has a slight chance?

[MHSN 3,625]

ok here is my preview

 

59kg

with 24 wrestlers the situation is quite unfair as we have 8 in top and 16 wrestlers in bottom half ! but luckily our wrestler is in top half this time. Sourian can't complain about the draw at all. out of his 10 possible serious opponents he got only two of them in this half, Lizatovic and Tsymbaliuk ! Sourian is the clear favorite here, even though he is in a bad shape but still I think he is capable of handle this draw, he lost in Mongolia only and only because he ran out of gas. which can also happen here if his opponents manage to tire him and resist for 4-5 minutes against him, Sourian's plan A is obviously trying to make a quick 8-0 score. otherwise second period will be really hard for him. beside those two wrestlers , he has one very serious problem in Israel ! I expect this guy to beat his Italian opponent but Ukraine can beat him in second round, but this is not guaranteed.

in bottom half we will have a hell of a competition. we have Angelov, Lashkhi, Amoyan and Modos plus the Turk. people know crazy things happen whenever Turkey hosts a competition, specially in wrestling. in a normal situation I would give more change to Aneglov but despite beating Sourian in mongolia he didn't impress at all, I want to make a bold guess here, I expect Islamov of Moldova to qualify !

I expect Iran and Moldova to qualify.

 

66kg

almost a balanced draw, in top half we have Ozel (former world medalist at 71), Vardanyan multiple World and Olympic medalists and a tough Chinese guy Zheng. plus few other guys from Moldova and USA. I would give a chance to Stas of BUL but he was terrible recently. it's hard to pick one wrestler in this half

bottm half we have a very tough match in first round Chunayev vs Etlinger, I expect the winner of this match to go all the way to the final but we still have few other decent wrestlers there, the Armenian guy wrestling for France, the Kazakh guy, Belarus and Tallroth of Sweden

I expect Turkey and Azerbaijan to qualify (and I hope I'm wrong)

 

75kg

easier top half as usual, we have an interesting first round match between Kobnov and Rosengren, this guy Kobonov wasn't around for a while, I used to like him in his prime days, not sure about his current shape beside these guys we have Pyshkov of Ukraine and a guy from Belarus and another one from Bulgaria , beside them I want to give a change to Escobar of Mexico, I hope he makes it even though his chance is slim.

in bottom half we have a 3 time world champion at home, Cebi which makes him a clear favorite he has to wrestle Eisele of Germany in second round, Eisele beat him in Mongolia but this time will be a different story in Istanbul ! Starcevic is another favorite in this part who can be Cebi's next opponent in quarterfinal , the winner of that match most probably will make it to Rio. but we also have few other guys like Kazakevic (who cut weight down to 75 after losing at 85) Besleaga of MDA and the Japanese guy. still Cebi is the favorite mostly because of having referees on his side.

I expect Ukraine and Turkey to qualify

 

85kg

the most mysterious wrestler is BACK again ! this Gadzhiev guy (Russian wrestling for Kazakhstan) shows himself every four year for the Olympics ! he won a bronze in London and we didn't see him in serious competitions after that until here ! I don't know about his current shape but he has a dream draw here, I see only the Georgian guy (and maybe Lithuania) as serious competition for him. the Greek guy is also not bad.

bottom half is a different story, there are so many favorites here, 2014 World Champion Noumonvi, Kudla of Germany, the Austrian guy Hrustanovic, Omarov, Zugaj and last but not least the Turkish guy with their superhuman power at home.  most of these guys wrestled in both Serbia and Mnogolia and failed, I expect them to be exhausted, because of that Kudla of Germany is my pick here. his second round match vs Noumonvi can be the decider. my favorite here is Hrustanovic, he beat Noumonvi at worlds and has his chance here, Zugaj was terrbie recently so I don't count on him but he has a good path to the semifinal if he beats the Turk, Basar is nothing special but he is wrestling at home, so ...

I expect Kazakhstan and Germany to qualfiy

 

98kg

There are 3 good wrestlers in top half, actually 2 and half since it's hard to consider Vala a big favorite here. so I think it will be between Hassler and Ildem. for whatever reason Germans didn't send Hassler to previous tournaments, if he is fit he has a good chance . their other guy Ohler beat both Turk wrestlers in prevoius tournaments (one of them was Ildem) The Polish guy here can make surprise

we have one interestling matchup in bottom half, Bahrain vs Israel, I wonder what's Bahrain's policy in this case ! withdrawal or what ? if he wrestles, Abdelfatah has a good chance to make it, still the favorite here is Gadabadze who has a bye in first round ,we also have Rau (USA), Saikawa (JPN) and few more wrestlers from Kazakhstan, Italy and Lithuania here

I expect Turkey and Azerbaijan to qualify

 

130kg

in top half we have two favorite Euren and Chugoshvili, with Banak and Metodiev behind them, I feel sad for Chugoshvili, this poor guy was unlucky in Serbia and Mongolia, I think he is exhausted here, which makes me giving more chance to Euren who was disappointing in Mongolia

in bottom half I see Kajaia as the favorite, he has an easy path to the semifinal against either Deak-bardos or Lithuania. Deak-Bardos is older than 40 he used to be a great wrestler but he is a grandpa now ! I pick Kajaia

I expect Sweden and Georgia to qualify.

 

 

[MHSN 3,625]

7 minutes ago, mrv86 said:

 

Do you think Escobar (-75) has a slight chance?

 

Yep I think he has, as I wrote that in my preview, if he wins his first match which is winnable for him, (probably 50-50) he can make it to the semifinal and in one match everything is possible. none of those wrestlers in top half are unbeatable for him.

[heywoodu 15,147]

43 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

Actually I was talking about it with a friend, he won't do that unless they let him wrestle which is not possible, this is the federation decision, not the NOC, not sport ministry,

 

even if he qualifies he still needs NOC confirmation to be in Rio, that's not going to happen and he is not that stupid to do that, in Iran they usually pay Israel-forfeit athletes the same prize money as gold medal winners. this is not the Olympic itself though but still.

Wait what, you're saying Sourian would quit his last chance to defend his Olympic gold if he has to fight the Israeli to get to the Olympics? 

 

 

[dcro 10,210]

We need a miracle

 

[MHSN 3,625]

13 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Wait what, you're saying Sourian would quit his last chance to defend his Olympic gold if he has to fight the Israeli to get to the Olympics? 

 

 

 

Yes, in sports like wrestling with direct one on one matches you never see an Iranian competing with Israel, at least in near future. doesn't matter where and when, even in Olympic final.

 

usually when I receive the bracket, this the first thing I check.

[intoronto 5,645]

4 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

Yes, in sports like wrestling with direct one on one matches you never see an Iranian competing with Israel, at least in near future. doesn't matter where and when, even in Olympic final.

 

usually when I receive the bracket, this the first thing I check.

 

Hopefully the situation is averted.

Is the ISraeli good?