How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024?

[Makedonas 2,200]

@Josh@TedI would agree that 5-6 is my expectation, though my wish is for 10+ 

 

In addition to those mentioned, I think Gkountoura (fencing - women's sabre) and Teltsidou (judo - women's 70kg) are also very good chances for medals.

 

Of course, smaller chances also for Tselidis in judo, Kougioumtsidis in wrestling, our men's basketball team if they qualify (which we always say and they never end up qualifying ), some of our other rowing teams (though I think both women's crews will probably be expected to finish top 6 but not on the podium), maybe someone in swimming can surprise (we've won some World Championships medals recently and I think there will be some Greeks making finals or top 8 in open water as in Tokyo but no one is really expected to actually win a medal but we'll see).

 

Also, in athletics obviously Tentoglou is the favourite for gold as Josh mentioned, we don't have anyone else in my opinion who is expected to win a medal but I think Stefanidi, Karalis, Drisbioti, and Tzengko will all have some chances (even if small) and none of them winning medals would be shocking.

[Josh 11,107]

  On 6/12/2024 at 6:36 PM, Makedonas said:

@Josh@TedI would agree that 5-6 is my expectation, though my wish is for 10+ 

 

In addition to those mentioned, I think Gkountoura (fencing - women's sabre) and Teltsidou (judo - women's 70kg) are also very good chances for medals.

 

Of course, smaller chances also for Tselidis in judo, Kougioumtsidis in wrestling, our men's basketball team if they qualify (which we always say and they never end up qualifying ), some of our other rowing teams (though I think both women's crews will probably be expected to finish top 6 but not on the podium), maybe someone in swimming can surprise (we've won some World Championships medals recently and I think there will be some Greeks making finals or top 8 in open water as in Tokyo but no one is really expected to actually win a medal but we'll see).

 

Also, in athletics obviously Tentoglou is the favourite for gold as Josh mentioned, we don't have anyone else in my opinion who is expected to win a medal but I think Stefanidi, Karalis, Drisbioti, and Tzengko will all have some chances (even if small) and none of them winning medals would be shocking.

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Christou won bronze in the men’s 100m backstroke in Doha sure, but it wasn’t particularly the strongest field. Also, he was about half a second slower than the silver medalist. 
 

Stefanidi winning a medal would be shocking IMO. She’s not producing the same marks as she was a couple of years ago. With Kennedy, Moon, and Caudery likely to push the 4.90m barrier, it’ll be next to impossible. Even if a minor medal is 4.85m, don’t see it happening. 
 

Otherwise I agree with you 

[CCB 565]

  On 6/12/2024 at 4:27 PM, Dkats said:

why do so many Dutch on this website underestimate your team so much? You guys are class right across the board imo

 

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For me (personally) it is no underestimation, but realism. And of course I hope the Dutch will win the 20 golds Gracenote predicts. But I don't see that happen. And however, 30-35 medals is quite a lot?

 

A lot of medals on World Champs have been won while favourites didn't compete, like in swimming (4x100 free / Van Rouwendaal / Schouten) and in athletics (4x400, Bol). I understand the Gracenote-prediction, but gold for Van Rouwendaal, Schouten, the 4x100 free ... not in a million years. And I don't see Bol - competing finally against Sydney McLL again - winning gold either.

 

On the other hand we have some big favourites, like Lavreysen (track cycling), Florijn (rowing) and the hockey women. So yeah, we will definitely win some golds, but I think most of the medals will be silver and bronze, which still is very good for a small country like Netherlands.

 

And who knows, when everything turns well, we maybe can surprise. Until then I'll keep the expectations low, otherwise it will only be disappointing.

[Makedonas 2,200]

  On 6/12/2024 at 6:48 PM, Josh said:

Christou won bronze in the men’s 100m backstroke in Doha sure, but it wasn’t particularly the strongest field. Also, he was about half a second slower than the silver medalist. 
 

Stefanidi winning a medal would be shocking IMO. She’s not producing the same marks as she was a couple of years ago. With Kennedy, Moon, and Caudery likely to push the 4.90m barrier, it’ll be next to impossible. Even if a minor medal is 4.85m, don’t see it happening. 
 

Otherwise I agree with you 

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Gkolomeev won silver in the men's 50 freestyle in 2019 also and consistently makes finals in that event, but usually misses the podium. He made it in 2022, 2023, and the weak 2024 one as well for example.

 

Christou was also 5th in Budapest 2022 (with a CR in the semifinal but was disappointing in the final), but actually he said his main event for Paris will be the 200 backstroke which is surprising but he just swam it in 1:56.34 a few weeks ago in Greece so we'll see. There is also Siskos in that event who made the final of the Worlds last year as an 18 yo.

 

 

As for Stefanidi, she has a history of peaking on the big stage which is why I mentioned her. We thought she wouldn't get close to the podium in Tokyo but had a big SB and got 4th and now her silver in Rome is giving be false hope so let me dream again  and also she just beat Caudery at the Europeans so you never know, there are often surprises in the women's pole vault...

 

Also I'd like to remind you I said some of these have small chances, I am in no way expecting any of our swimmers or Stefanidi to win medals in Paris 

[Olympian1010 8,073]

Any medal for  would be pretty neat.

[Josh 11,107]

  On 6/12/2024 at 6:55 PM, CCB said:

For me (personally) it is no underestimation, but realism. And of course I hope the Dutch will win the 20 golds Gracenote predicts. But I don't see that happen. And however, 30-35 medals is quite a lot?

 

A lot of medals on World Champs have been won while favourites didn't compete, like in swimming (4x100 free / Van Rouwendaal / Schouten) and in athletics (4x400, Bol). I understand the Gracenote-prediction, but gold for Van Rouwendaal, Schouten, the 4x100 free ... not in a million years. And I don't see Bol - competing finally against Sydney McLL again - winning gold either.

 

On the other hand we have some big favourites, like Lavreysen (track cycling), Florijn (rowing) and the hockey women. So yeah, we will definitely win some golds, but I think most of the medals will be silver and bronze, which still is very good for a small country like Netherlands.

 

And who knows, when everything turns well, we maybe can surprise. Until then I'll keep the expectations low, otherwise it will only be disappointing.

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That can’t be right… can it? 
 

Personally, I wouldn’t write off Van Rouwendaal’s chances of winning gold.

[hoversaBR 474]

  On 6/12/2024 at 6:06 PM, Josh said:

 

Duda/AP are in horrific form (by their standards) right now, I can’t see them winning gold. 
 

Barbora/Carol are much more likely. 

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Honestly, I see Barbara/Carol as a very limited team, they can win gold (they're not fourth in the rankings for nothing, after all), but I imagine they should have a perfect tournament for that.

 

Duda/Ana Patricia, on the other hand, could win even if they weren't playing that well. Regarding the latest performances, I'm happy that these problems arose now and not at the Olympics and be surprised, as happened with Agatha/Duda in Tokyo.

[orangeman 2,025]

  On 6/12/2024 at 5:21 PM, Josh said:

18-20. 5 golds. 

 

We arguably have a much stronger team than we did in Tokyo (despite -80 or so athletes) but my bet is that the majority of our medal hopes will flop, despite having a ton of chances. 
 

(… No I don’t actual think this will be realistic, but better to have low expectations than high expectations)

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This is a conservative take. It's possible just our swimmers + track/fielders get that. Heck, Summer could get 4 golds all by herself (COULD). I'd say if things work out well, Canada could push 30 overall and 10 golds. I think 25/7 is more likely based on Canadian athlete's usual performance under pressure, though. 

 

But I'm with you, it's better to have lower expectations and be surprised than to have dreams busted. 

 

The real question is, how many 4ths with Canadians get. I'm going with 22, about average. 

Edited June 12, 2024 by orangeman

[phelps 7,839]

between 0 and 50 medals, between 0 and 15 golds 

[Book 70]

: 118 medals, 41 golds.

 

I think Paris will have to be slightly better for medals then Tokyo, but not crazy. 
 

Really does come down to the swimming team. Track I’m thinking we could see +2-3 golds from Tokyo but I don’t have a sense of where the swimming team is now that the legends of the late 2010s are out of their prime. If the newer swimmers can keep the ball rolling then breaking 120 is very likely considering the new sports since Rio are all US medal chances. Climbing’s split events could lead to 4 medals with gold possible in men’s speed.

Edited June 12, 2024 by Book