Swimming at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Jan Linha 590]

So the swimmer who have achieved OQT can enter multiple events? I noticed Daniel Gracik is on the list of 100m Freestyle too but he didn't even achieve OCT...

[Topicmaster1010 4,178]

Relay Power Rankings: Men's 4x100m Medley Relay

 

Other Power Rankings:

Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

 

Remember, for each country, I'm taking the top 4 eligible swimmers for each country and using their best times from 2024 to form a estimated relay time. 1.5 seconds will be subtracted from each cumulative time to account for reaction times.

 

*Please note that the order of swimmers is arranged from fastest to slowest times, NOT by predicted relay order.

 

16.  Austria - 3:33.17

• Backstroke: Bernhard Reitshammer - 54.54
• Valentin Bayer - 1:00.49
• Butterfly: Simon Bucher - 51.28
• Freestyle: Heiko Gigler - 48.36

 

Not surprising to see Austria at the bottom of the rankings with Simon Bucher the only swimmer than had an OQT in the qualification period. Heiko Gigler is a decent option at freestyle but the other two legs drag this relay down.

 

15.  Ireland - 3:32.57

• Backstroke: Conor Ferguson - 53.87
• Breaststroke: Darragh Greene - 59.91
• Butterfly: Max Mc Cusker - 51.90
• Freestyle: Shane Ryan - 48.39

 

Ireland actually doesn't have a single member of this relay that had an OQT in the stroke 100s during the qualification period. However, they were all just outside of their respective OQTs and that's enough to put them ahead of Austria here.

 

14.  Switzerland - 3:32.44

• Backstroke: Roman Mityukov - 53.58
• Breaststroke: Jeremy Desplanches - 1:00.90
• Butterfly: Noe Ponti - 50.16
• Freestyle: Antonio Djakovic - 49.30

 

Noe Ponti is one of the best butterfliers in the world (currently ranked 2nd this year) and Roman Mityukov is a decent backstroker. However, the breaststroke and freestyle legs are too much of a weakness to prevent this relay on moving further up in the rankings.

 

13.  South Korea - 3:32.01

• Backstroke: Lee Juho - 53.81
• Breaststroke: Choi Dongyeol - 59.74
• Butterfly: Kim Jihun - 52.05
• Freestyle: Hwang Sunwoo - 47.91

 

This relay definitely had the potential to be higher up in the rankings. Hwang Sunwoo is an elite freestyler. Lee Juho has been as quick as 53.32 in his career and Choi Dongyeol has been as quick as 59.28 but neither one has found their best form this year. It's a shame that Kim Youngbeom wasn't selected for the Olympic team. He recently broke the Korean 100m butterfly record in a time of 51.65 (a few months after the team selection).

 

12.  Spain - 3:31.41

• Backstroke: Hugo Gonzalez - 52.70
• Breaststroke: Carles Coll - 1:00.39
• Butterfly: Mario Molla - 51.48
• Freestyle: Sergio de Celis - 48.34

 

Hugo Gonzalez has established himself as an elite backstroker and Mario Moll and Sergio Celis should provide decent legs. The breaststroke leg needs to be the difference maker if Spain wants a chance to make the final.

 

11.  Japan - 3:31.16

• Backstroke: Riku Matsuyama - 53.72
• Breaststroke: Taku Taniguchi - 59.43
• Butterfly: Naoki Mizunuma - 51.23
• Freestyle: Katsuhiro Matsumoto - 48.28

 

Here, we have our first relay where all 4 swimmers were under their respective OQTs. However, there aren't any standout legs which is why they rank 11th here. Naoki Mizunuma has the highest world rank of the 4 swimmers at 19th in the 100m butterfly. Katsuhiro Matsumoto actually ranks 12th but the relay add up time is faster with him at freestyle.

 

10.  Canada - 3:30.89

• Backstroke: Blake Tierney - 53.48
• Breaststroke: Finlay Knox - 1:00.66
• Butterfly: Josh Liendo - 50.06
• Freestyle: Yuri Kisil - 48.19

 

Josh Liendo is the big star here and will be expected to be the difference maker in this relay. Blake Tierney is greatly improving in the backstroke and Yuri Kisil is a decent option at freestyle. Like with most Canadian medley relays, breaststroke is the biggest weakness here. Finlay Knox will be expected to take the role and given his rapid improvement this year in the 200 IM, it's not out of the question for him to drop more time.

 

9.  Poland - 3:30.60

• Backstroke: Ksawery Masiuk - 53.09
• Breaststroke: Jan Kalusowski - 59.58
• Butterfly: Jakub Majerski - 50.98
• Freestyle: Mateusz Chowaniec - 48.45

 

Poland might have the most underrated medley relay of any team. Jakub Majerski has improved greatly this season and ranks 12th in the world in the 100m butterfly. Ksawery Masiuk also ranks in the top 20 in the 100m backstroke this year and is still a teenager. Kalusowski and Chowaniec have times just outside the OQT in their respective events.

 

8.  Netherlands - 3:30.21

• Backstroke: Kai van Westering - 53.80
• Breaststroke: Arno Kamminga - 58.87
• Butterfly: Nyls Korstanje - 50.90
• Freestyle: Sean Niewold - 48.14

 

With the addition of Kai van Westering and the emergence of Sean Niewold, the Netherlands will be a contender to make the final. They'll likely join Arno Kamminga (or Caspar Corbeau) and Nyls Korstanje on the relay who are both top 10 in the world in their respective events.

 

7.  Germany - 3:30.18

• Backstroke: Ole Braunschweig - 53.48
• Breaststroke: Melvin Imoudu - 58.84
• Butterfly: Kaii Winkler - 51.51
• Freestyle: Josha Salchow -47.85

 

Germany is a country that's made great improvements in the medley relay this year. Josha Salchow has dropped more than a second off his freestyle time in 2023 to improve his PB to 47.85. Melvin Imoudu has had a breakout year and his breaststroke PB stands at 58.84 now. Germany was also able to get one of the top American prospects Kaii Winkler to join their team which will be a big boost on the butterfly leg. Ole Braunschweig should also have a decent backstroke leg.

 

6.  Italy - 3:29.55

• Backstroke: Thomas Ceccon - 52.43
• Breaststroke: Nicolo Martinenghi - 58.84
• Butterfly: Alberto Razzetti - 52.06
• Freestyle: Alessandro Miressi - 47.72

 

It was only two years ago that Italy won an unexpected gold at the 2022 World Championships in this relay. With Thomas Ceccon, Nicolo Martinenghi and Alessandro Miressi, they have 3 elite swimmers which all rank in the top 12 in the world this year in their respective events. Not a single Italian hit the 51.67 OQT during the qualification period. Alberto Razzetti will likely be asked to do the butterfly leg. He's an world class IMer and 200m butterflyer but his 100m butterfly best time this year is only 52.06 and that just won't cut it against the other top nations. If he can drop some time, Italy could factor into the medals.

 

5.  Australia - 3:28.99

• Backstroke: Isaac Cooper - 53.46
• Breaststroke: Sam Williamson - 58.80
• Butterfly: Matthew Temple - 50.60
• Freestyle: Kyle Chalmers - 47.63

 

Despite Kyle Chalmers only having a season best of 47.63, we all know he's going to be much faster than that in Paris. Arguably no one has been more clutch on relays than him so if Australia is within striking distance of a medal heading into the freestyle leg, they'll get it. Sam Williamson has had a breakthrough year going under 59 seconds for the first time in his career at the Australian Trials. That's turned a longtime Australian weakness into a possible strength this year. Matthew Temple, at his best, is an elite butterflier but he failed to break the 51 second barrier at Australian Trials. He's been as quick as 50.25 in his career so the Australians will be hoping he can be at that form in Paris. The big question mark will be on the backstroke leg where Isaac Cooper has the fastest time this year at 53.46. He'll need to be faster if Australia wants to contend for the medals.

 

4.  France - 3:28.93

• Backstroke: Mewen Tomac - 52.88
• Breaststroke: Leon Marchand - 59.06
• Butterfly: Maxime Grousset - 50.59
• Freestyle: Florent Manaudou - 47.90

 

Two impressive performances have helped vault France in the middle of medal contention. First, Leon Marchand set a monster PB in the 100m breaststroke going 59.06. Then at French Trials, Florent Manaudou set a PB in the 100m freestyle of 47.90. Add a top 12 backstroker + the reigning 100m butterfly world champion to the mix and you've got a really good relay. You can make an argument of putting Grousset on the freestyle leg and Clement Secchi on the butterfly leg but I did the math and based on their season bests, putting Grousset and Manadou in the relay makes the relay faster by 0.01 seconds.

 

3.  Great Britain - 3:28.67

• Backstroke: Ollie Morgan - 52.70
• Breaststroke: Adam Peaty - 57.94
• Butterfly: Joe Litchfield - 51.71
• Freestyle: Matt Richards - 47.82

 

At British Trials, we got to see both the return to form of Adam Peaty and the emergence of Ollie Morgan as one of the best backstrokers in the world. It was after those swims that everyone thought the British medley relay could contend for gold. After all, Matt Richards had also just come off of a finals appearance in the 100m freestyle at the 2023 World Championships. But then the 100m butterfly leg happened. Surprisingly, Jacob Peters, the best British butterflyer over the past two years failed to make the Olympic Team and the race was won by Joe Litchfield in a pedestrian time of 51.71. Whether or not they will use Litchfield or clutch relay performer James Guy remains to be seen but either way, the butterfly leg will be the biggest difference maker for Great Britain.

 

2.  China - 3:27.13

• Backstroke: Xu Jiayu - 52.39
• Breaststroke: Qin Haiyang - 58.24
• Butterfly: Wang Changhao - 51.20
• Freestyle: Pan Zhanle - 46.80

 

Speaking of a key butterfly leg, China will also need one. China currently boasts the 4th ranked 100m backstroker in the world, the 2nd ranked 100m breaststroker in the world, and the top ranked 100m freestyler in the world who just broke the world record at the 2024 World Championships. Wang Changhao will likely be relied on for the butterfly leg. He's just coming off setting a PB at Chinese Olympic Trials and ranks 18th in the world this year. If he can stay in touch with Caeleb Dressel, they'll have the World Record holder, Pan Zhanle, to bring them home.

 

1.  United States - 3:26.56

• Backstroke: Ryan Murphy - 52.22
• Breaststroke: Nic Fink - 58.57
• Butterfly: Caeleb Dressel - 50.19
• Freestyle: Jack Alexy - 47.08

 

Not surprisingly, the team that everybody will be chasing is the US, who has won every edition of this relay in Olympic history that they've competed in. There are no clear weaknesses on this team. So far this year, Ryan Murphy ranks 1st in the world in the 100m backstroke, Nic Fink ranks 3rd in the 100m breaststroke, Caeleb Dressel ranks 3rd in the 100m butterfly, and Jack Alexy ranks 3rd in the 100m freestyle.

Edited July 24 by Topicmaster1010

[dullard 699]

Be interesting to see if Qin is in the same form as last year. If he is then the US' breast leg becomes a similar weakness to China's fly.

[RussB 189]

GB have to use Joe somewhere (in one of the relays) as he isn’t doing the individual but I think it’s fair to predict Jimmy swims the final. For GB to be a medal contender we not only need Peaty on supreme form but Jimmy to rediscover Tokyo magic on the fly leg.

[heywoodu 15,140]

The open water races could still end up not being in the Seine, not because of the water conditions (that seems to have been cleaned up quite nicely), but because of the massively strong flow of water, more than twice as strong as the maximum that's allowed in the rules (1,2 m/s vs 0,5 m/s). Swimmers recently did a test in the Elbe river in Germany at 0,7 m/s and already barely managed to keep going, let alone if it's almost twice as strong.

 

Hopefully that changes very soon, the main challenge in a 10k race shouldn't be to avoid going backwards  

[mpjmcevoy 362]

On 7/16/2024 at 9:11 AM, RussB said:

GB have to use Joe somewhere (in one of the relays) as he isn’t doing the individual but I think it’s fair to predict Jimmy swims the final. For GB to be a medal contender we not only need Peaty on supreme form but Jimmy to rediscover Tokyo magic on the fly leg.

If you look carefully at the relay schedules already up at World Aquatics, you can see some relays heats have already partially been filled in - no doubt to clear the rule about DQ if a relay only swimmer isn't used. In the men's 4 x 100 free, Lo and behold... Joe Litchfield and Jack Macmillen are down (notably down in the women's 4 x 1, Freya Anderon and Okara, no doubt for exactly the same reason). Given James being given the solo event, I think we can safely say they have no faith whatsoever in Litchfield, and if put him in the available relay that is most disposable. I assume GBR are emphasising Mens 4 x 2, Men's Medley, Mixed Medley, Men's 4 x 1, women's 4 x 2, Womens medley, women's 4 x 1 in that order - with high gold hopes in the first, firm medal intent in the next two, and somewhat less the next two, with hardly any hope in the last two.

 

Guy seems to have picked up a bit of Mojo after his move back this year, so the men's medley will be interesting, possibly more so than the mixed, where there is simply no decent female butterfly swimmer, so they are forced back to FMMF. I will bet my granny that Guy swims medley finals, they may try and rest him in freestyle relay heats, and let Dean do the donkey work there.

[Epic Failure 355]

I don't dispute your detective work but if they sacrifice the men's 4x1 like that, I might actually cry.

 

Picking both him and Jack in that seems a risk too far, especially with Cohoon, Dean and Whittle all being there.

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 7/16/2024 at 7:15 AM, Topicmaster1010 said:

Relay Power Rankings: Men's 4x100m Medley Relay

 

Other Power Rankings:

Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

 

Remember, for each country, I'm taking the top 4 eligible swimmers for each country and using their best times from 2024 to form a estimated relay time. 1.5 seconds will be subtracted from each cumulative time to account for reaction times.

 

*Please note that the order of swimmers is arranged from fastest to slowest times, NOT by predicted relay order.

 

16.  Austria - 3:33.17

• Backstroke: Bernhard Reitshammer - 54.54
• Valentin Bayer - 1:00.49
• Butterfly: Simon Bucher - 51.28
• Freestyle: Heiko Gigler - 48.36

 

Not surprising to see Austria at the bottom of the rankings with Simon Bucher the only swimmer than had an OQT in the qualification period. Heiko Gigler is a decent option at freestyle but the other two legs drag this relay down.

 

15.  Ireland - 3:32.57

• Backstroke: Conor Ferguson - 53.87
• Breaststroke: Darragh Greene - 59.91
• Butterfly: Max Mc Cusker - 51.90
• Freestyle: Shane Ryan - 48.39

 

Ireland actually doesn't have a single member of this relay that had an OQT in the stroke 100s during the qualification period. However, they were all just outside of their respective OQTs and that's enough to put them ahead of Austria here.

 

14.  Switzerland - 3:32.44

• Backstroke: Roman Mityukov - 53.58
• Breaststroke: Jeremy Desplanches - 1:00.90
• Butterfly: Noe Ponti - 50.16
• Freestyle: Antonio Djakovic - 49.30

 

Noe Ponti is one of the best butterfliers in the world (currently ranked 2nd this year) and Roman Mityukov is a decent backstroker. However, the breaststroke and freestyle legs are too much of a weakness to prevent this relay on moving further up in the rankings.

 

13.  South Korea - 3:32.01

• Backstroke: Lee Juho - 53.81
• Breaststroke: Choi Dongyeol - 59.74
• Butterfly: Kim Jihun - 52.05
• Freestyle: Hwang Sunwoo - 47.91

 

This relay definitely had the potential to be higher up in the rankings. Hwang Sunwoo is an elite freestyler. Lee Juho has been as quick as 53.32 in his career and Choi Dongyeol has been as quick as 59.28 but neither one has found their best form this year. It's a shame that Kim Youngbeom wasn't selected for the Olympic team. He recently broke the Korean 100m butterfly record in a time of 51.65 (a few months after the team selection).

 

12.  Spain - 3:31.41

• Backstroke: Hugo Gonzalez - 52.70
• Breaststroke: Carles Coll - 1:00.39
• Butterfly: Mario Molla - 51.48
• Freestyle: Sergio de Celis - 48.34

 

Hugo Gonzalez has established himself as an elite backstroker and Mario Moll and Sergio Celis should provide decent legs. The breaststroke leg needs to be the difference maker if Spain wants a chance to make the final.

 

11.  Japan - 3:31.16

• Backstroke: Riku Matsuyama - 53.72
• Breaststroke: Taku Taniguchi - 59.43
• Butterfly: Katsuhiro Matsumoto - 51.23
• Freestyle: Naoki Mizunuma - 48.28

 

Here, we have our first relay where all 4 swimmers were under their respective OQTs. However, there aren't any standout legs which is why they rank 11th here. Naoki Mizunuma has the highest world rank of the 4 swimmers at 19th in the 100m butterfly. Katsuhiro Matsumoto actually ranks 12th but the relay add up time is faster with him at freestyle.

 

10.  Canada - 3:30.89

• Backstroke: Blake Tierney - 53.48
• Breaststroke: Finlay Knox - 1:00.66
• Butterfly: Josh Liendo - 50.06
• Freestyle: Yuri Kisil - 48.19

 

Josh Liendo is the big star here and will be expected to be the difference maker in this relay. Blake Tierney is greatly improving in the backstroke and Yuri Kisil is a decent option at freestyle. Like with most Canadian medley relays, breaststroke is the biggest weakness here. Finlay Knox will be expected to take the role and given his rapid improvement this year in the 200 IM, it's not out of the question for him to drop more time.

 

9.  Poland - 3:30.60

• Backstroke: Ksawery Masiuk - 53.09
• Breaststroke: Jan Kalusowski - 59.58
• Butterfly: Jakub Majerski - 50.98
• Freestyle: Mateusz Chowaniec - 48.45

 

Poland might have the most underrated medley relay of any team. Jakub Majerski has improved greatly this season and ranks 12th in the world in the 100m butterfly. Ksawery Masiuk also ranks in the top 20 in the 100m backstroke this year and is still a teenager. Kalusowski and Chowaniec have times just outside the OQT in their respective events.

 

8.  Netherlands - 3:30.21

• Backstroke: Kai van Westering - 53.80
• Breaststroke: Arno Kamminga - 58.87
• Butterfly: Nyls Korstanje - 50.90
• Freestyle: Sean Niewold - 48.14

 

With the addition of Kai van Westering and the emergence of Sean Niewold, the Netherlands will be a contender to make the final. They'll likely join Arno Kamminga (or Caspar Corbeau) and Nyls Korstanje on the relay who are both top 10 in the world in their respective events.

 

7.  Germany - 3:30.18

• Backstroke: Ole Braunschweig - 53.48
• Breaststroke: Melvin Imoudu - 58.84
• Butterfly: Kaii Winkler - 51.51
• Freestyle: Josha Salchow -47.85

 

Germany is a country that's made great improvements in the medley relay this year. Josha Salchow has dropped more than a second off his freestyle time in 2023 to improve his PB to 47.85. Melvin Imoudu has had a breakout year and his breaststroke PB stands at 58.84 now. Germany was also able to get one of the top American prospects Kaii Winkler to join their team which will be a big boost on the butterfly leg. Ole Braunschweig should also have a decent backstroke leg.

 

6.  Italy - 3:29.55

• Backstroke: Thomas Ceccon - 52.43
• Breaststroke: Nicolo Martinenghi - 58.84
• Butterfly: Alberto Razzetti - 52.06
• Freestyle: Alessandro Miressi - 47.72

 

It was only two years ago that Italy won an unexpected gold at the 2022 World Championships in this relay. With Thomas Ceccon, Nicolo Martinenghi and Alessandro Miressi, they have 3 elite swimmers which all rank in the top 12 in the world this year in their respective events. Not a single Italian hit the 51.67 OQT during the qualification period. Alberto Razzetti will likely be asked to do the butterfly leg. He's an world class IMer and 200m butterflyer but his 100m butterfly best time this year is only 52.06 and that just won't cut it against the other top nations. If he can drop some time, Italy could factor into the medals.

 

5.  Australia - 3:28.99

• Backstroke: Isaac Cooper - 53.46
• Breaststroke: Sam Williamson - 58.80
• Butterfly: Matthew Temple - 50.60
• Freestyle: Kyle Chalmers - 47.63

 

Despite Kyle Chalmers only having a season best of 47.63, we all know he's going to be much faster than that in Paris. Arguably no one has been more clutch on relays than him so if Australia is within striking distance of a medal heading into the freestyle leg, they'll get it. Sam Williamson has had a breakthrough year going under 59 seconds for the first time in his career at the Australian Trials. That's turned a longtime Australian weakness into a possible strength this year. Matthew Temple, at his best, is an elite butterflier but he failed to break the 51 second barrier at Australian Trials. He's been as quick as 50.25 in his career so the Australians will be hoping he can be at that form in Paris. The big question mark will be on the backstroke leg where Isaac Cooper has the fastest time this year at 53.46. He'll need to be faster if Australia wants to contend for the medals.

 

4.  France - 3:28.93

• Backstroke: Mewen Tomac - 52.88
• Breaststroke: Leon Marchand - 59.06
• Butterfly: Maxime Grousset - 50.59
• Freestyle: Florent Manaudou - 47.90

 

Two impressive performances have helped vault France in the middle of medal contention. First, Leon Marchand set a monster PB in the 100m breaststroke going 59.06. Then at French Trials, Florent Manaudou set a PB in the 100m freestyle of 47.90. Add a top 12 backstroker + the reigning 100m butterfly world champion to the mix and you've got a really good relay. You can make an argument of putting Grousset on the freestyle leg and Clement Secchi on the butterfly leg but I did the math and based on their season bests, putting Grousset and Manadou in the relay makes the relay faster by 0.01 seconds.

 

3.  Great Britain - 3:28.67

• Backstroke: Ollie Morgan - 52.70
• Breaststroke: Adam Peaty - 57.94
• Butterfly: Joe Litchfield - 51.71
• Freestyle: Matt Richards - 47.82

 

At British Trials, we got to see both the return to form of Adam Peaty and the emergence of Ollie Morgan as one of the best backstrokers in the world. It was after those swims that everyone thought the British medley relay could contend for gold. After all, Matt Richards had also just come off of a finals appearance in the 100m freestyle at the 2023 World Championships. But then the 100m butterfly leg happened. Surprisingly, Jacob Peters, the best British butterflyer over the past two years failed to make the Olympic Team and the race was won by Joe Litchfield in a pedestrian time of 51.71. Whether or not they will use Litchfield or clutch relay performer James Guy remains to be seen but either way, the butterfly leg will be the biggest difference maker for Great Britain.

 

2.  China - 3:27.13

• Backstroke: Xu Jiayu - 52.39
• Breaststroke: Qin Haiyang - 58.24
• Butterfly: Wang Changhao - 51.20
• Freestyle: Pan Zhanle - 46.80

 

Speaking of a key butterfly leg, China will also need one. China currently boasts the 4th ranked 100m backstroker in the world, the 2nd ranked 100m breaststroker in the world, and the top ranked 100m freestyler in the world who just broke the world record at the 2024 World Championships. Wang Changhao will likely be relied on for the butterfly leg. He's just coming off setting a PB at Chinese Olympic Trials and ranks 18th in the world this year. If he can stay in touch with Caeleb Dressel, they'll have the World Record holder, Pan Zhanle, to bring them home.

 

1.  United States - 3:26.56

• Backstroke: Ryan Murphy - 52.22
• Breaststroke: Nic Fink - 58.57
• Butterfly: Caeleb Dressel - 50.19
• Freestyle: Jack Alexy - 47.08

 

Not surprisingly, the team that everybody will be chasing is the US, who has won every edition of this relay in Olympic history that they've competed in. There are no clear weaknesses on this team. So far this year, Ryan Murphy ranks 1st in the world in the 100m backstroke, Nic Fink ranks 3rd in the 100m breaststroke, Caeleb Dressel ranks 3rd in the 100m butterfly, and Jack Alexy ranks 3rd in the 100m freestyle.

Was already waiting for your countdown to continue.

 

Some notes about Germany:

a) Salchow already swam 48.3 last year, so it wasn’t a one second improvement for him this year.

b) Not sure how much of a boost Winkler will be (if he gets to compete), considering all the trouble and the fact that he is less than 0.2 seconds faster than Armbruster. I also think that Armbruster has to be used in some relay and I don’t think that he will be used in the mixed medley relay instead of Angelina Köhler.

 

Other than that:

I think it GB will use Scott on the free leg. 
I think it would be a big shock if neither the U.S. nor China would win gold. Behind them it could be a 4-way battle for bronze (Italy, GB, Australia, France). Personally I have the most question marks when it comes to France and Australia. My ranking would probably be:

USA

China

GB

Italy

France

Australia

Germany

Japan

 

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 7/12/2024 at 7:39 AM, Topicmaster1010 said:

Relay Power Rankings: Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

 

Thought it would be cool to start a series on this thread to preview all the relay events and seeing how each country compares to the rest. We begin with the women's 4x200m freestyle relay because I know all the entries already. For each country, I'm taking the top 4 eligible swimmers for each country and using their best times from 2024 to form a estimated relay time. 1.5 seconds will be subtracted from each cumulative time to account for reaction times.

 

*Please note that the order of swimmers is arranged from fastest to slowest times, NOT by predicted relay order.

 

16.  Türkiye - 8:02.37

• Givem Guvenç - 1:59.23
• Ela Naz Özdemir - 2:00.52
• Zehra Bilgin - 2:01.74
• Ecem Dönmez - 2:02.38

 

15.  France - 7:58.41

• Lucile Tessariol - 1:59.22
• Marina Jehl - 2:00.04
• Assia Touati - 2:00.05
• Oceane Carnez - 2:00.60

 

14.  Netherlands - 7:55.94

• Marrit Steenbergen - 1:56.09
• Imani de Jong - 1:59.25
• Janna van Kooten - 1:59.35
• Silke Holkenborg - 2:02.75

 

Was a little bit surprised to see the Netherlands this low. They should be higher but all 4 of their relays swimmers haven't been able to match their times from last year so far this year.

 

13.  Spain - 7:54.66

• María Daza - 1:58.81
• Alba Herrero - 1:59.04
• Paula Juste - 1:59.09
• Ainhoa Campabadal - 1:59.22

 

12.  Italy - 7:53.67

• Sofia Morini - 1:57.81
• Simona Quadarella - 1:58.82
• Giulia D'Innocenzo - 1:59.23
• Giulia Ramatelli - 1:59.31

 

11.  New Zealand - 7:52.16

• Erika Fairweather - 1:55.45
• Laticia-Leigh Transom - 1:58.42
• Eve Thomas - 1:59.07
• Caitlin Deans - 2:00.72

 

10.  Japan - 7:51.92

• Waka Kobori - 1:58.22
• Rio Shirai - 1:58.27
• Hiroko Makino - 1:58.42
• Nagisa Ikemoto - 1:58.51

 

9.  Israel - 7:50.99

• Anastasia Gorbenko - 1:56.74
• Daria Golovaty - 1:57.87
• Lea Polonsky - 1:58.89
• Ayla Spitz - 1:58.99

 

8.  Brazil - 7:50.20

• Maria Costa - 1:56.37
• Gabrielle Roncatto - 1:58.01
• Stephanie Balduccini - 1:58.51
• Maria Heitmann - 1:58.81

 

7.  Hungary - 7:49.57

• Nikolett Pádár - 1:56.83
• Minna Ábráham - 1:57.22
• Panna Ugrai - 1:58.07
• Dóra Molnár - 1:58.95

 

6.  Germany - 7:48.32

• Isabel Gose - 1:56.66
• Julia Mrozinski - 1:57.22
• Nicole Maier - 1:57.36
• Nele Schulze - 1:58.58

 

5.  Great Britain - 7:47.72

• Freya Colbert - 1:56.22
• Abbie Wood - 1:56.62
• Medi Harris - 1:58.10
• Freya Anderson - 1:58.28

 

Great Britain is the first country on these rankings that I'd say actually has a chance at a medal. Freya Anderson didn't race the individual 200m at British Trials this year due to illness. They'll need her back at her best if they want to contend for a medal along with drops from all the other swimmers.

 

4.  Canada - 7:43.09

• Summer McIntosh - 1:53.69
• Mary-Sophie Harvey - 1:55.44
• Julie Brousseau - 1:57.60
• Emma O'Croinin - 1:57.86

 

This could very well be Canada's best shot at a relay medal. They have two dynamite legs with McIntosh and Harvey. Julie Brousseau is only 18 and has the potential to drop more time which will be a must for Canada if they want to challenge for the podium. If any of the swimmers look off in prelims, Ella Jansen (1:58.25) and Brooklyn Douthwright (1:58.49) will be looking for an opportunity to swim and who knows, maybe Penny Oleksiak will suddenly show signs of her old 200m freestyle form.

 

3.  China - 7:42.57

• Yang Junxuan - 1:54.37
• Li Bingjie - 1:56.29
• Liu Yaxin - 1:56.56
• Tang Muhan - 1:56.85

 

Overall, this is a very well-rounded Chinese team. While the top two swimmers, on paper, are slower than Canada, everybody has shown that they are capable of going sub 1:57 on a flat start. Ge Chutong (1:57.04) and Kong Yaqi (1:57.04) are also relay options. They should still be the favourites to take the bronze medal and as shown at the 2020 Olympics, this Chinese relay is capable of surprising everybody.

 

2.  United States - 7:42.22

• Katie Ledecky - 1:54.97
• Claire Weinstein - 1:55.86
• Paige Madden - 1:56.36
• Erin Gemmell - 1:56.53

 

Slightly leading the charge for 2nd spot is the US. Their trials were much slower than people expected, but there's reason to believe they'll be much faster in Paris. While Ledecky has not been as fast as McIntosh or Yang this year, she's proven to be a game changer in this relay over her career. Claire Weinstein and Erin Gemmell are young and still improving and Paige Madden is having a career year at 25 years old. The US will also have Anna Peplowski (1:56.99) and Alex Shackell (1:57.05) waiting in reserve. The battle for silver should be an interesting one with likely 3 teams fighting for two medals. But...

 

1.  Australia - 7:34.52

• Ariarne Titmus - 1:52.23
• Mollie O'Callaghan - 1:52.48
• Lani Pallister - 1:55.57
• Brianna Throssell - 1:55.74

 

then there's Australia. Good luck beating a relay team with the two fastest performers of all time. The Australian B-team could also have a chance of winning a medal. The next 4 fastest Aussies on the Olympic team this year are Kaylee McKeown (1:56.06), Jamie Perkins (1:56.22), Shayna Jack (1:56.22), and Meg Harris (1:56.93).

Still don’t see how GB could win a medal. I don’t see them beating Canada or China, not to mention both. My ranking would be:

Australia

USA

China

Canada

GB

Hungary

Germany

Japan/Brazil

[Epic Failure 355]

3 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

 

Other than that:

I think it GB will use Scott on the free leg. 
 

 

Obviously form will play a part but Richards has consistently been faster than Scott over 100m the last couple of years. Even with Duncan's relay prowess, it would be something of a shock if we made that change. Not completely unlikely, obviously.