2024 Canadian Olympic Swim Trials

[Josh 10,502]

Just now, Topicmaster1010 said:

Btw, if you guys think these trials have been disappointing, you clearly didn't watch Brazilian trials from last week 

 

Yes, there's been a few disappointing results and events but there's been a lot of positive results as well! It's bound to happen at any meet

 

Hopefully the good swims outweighs the disappointing swims for the next 5 days

Ok, but we have a much stronger swimming team than Brazil, probably one of the top 5 nations in the world, so I think our expectations are warranted. You’re right though in the sense that there have been lot’s of positive swims, especially today. Was hoping for more in the women’s 200m freestyle, a non-Knox first place finish in the men’s 100m breaststroke, Wigginton in the men’s 400m individual medley, women’s 100m breaststroke, McIntosh in the women’s 400m freestyle though. 

[NearPup 3,045]

54 minutes ago, Josh said:

No… 

 

Basically for you to qualify for the Olympics (the most simple ways), you have to either finish top 2 and reach the OQT, or finish top 2 and have reached the OQT in the qualification period. 

Which tbf is already an improvement than it was before. Now if you are in the top 2 at trials and you've reached the OQT at any point in the qualification window your qualification is automatic (though it puts you at fifth priority rather than first priority, but that only matters if Canada somehow is over the allowable per country quota which seems... unlikely to ever happen).

 

But swimmers do need to finish in the top 2 in trials.

 

Does create an interesting situation where anyone who finished top 2 in trials but doesn't have the time can try to achieve it until June 23rd.

 

Also, the qualification document from Swimming Canada is quite clear that priority 5 swimmers *shall* be nominated, not *may* be nominated.

 

The full document, in case anyone else is interested in reading it: https://www.swimming.ca/content/uploads/2023/05/2024-Olympic-Games-Pool-Swimming-final-April-21-20231.pdf

 

Also looks like swimming Canada is intending to accept OCT invitations for trial winners.

Edited May 14 by NearPup

[intoronto 5,638]

ANy estimate on team size?

[orangeman 1,989]

On 5/10/2024 at 1:40 AM, Topicmaster1010 said:

2024 Canadian Olympic Swimming Trials: Day 4 Preview

 

Image Source Everybody will be on World Record Watch as Summer McIntosh goes in her signature 400m IM event

 

Women's 400m Individual Medley

 

 

What a stacked event lineup this is.

 

Despite the amount of talent present here, Summer McIntosh is still far and away the clear favourite with an entry time almost 11 seconds faster than Mary-Sophie Harvey. After her mind blowing swim of 4:29.12 at a 2022 trials prep meeting, she has gone under the 4:30 mark 6 times and including every event final from the 2022 World Championships onward. Her resume in this event speaks for herself. 2022 Commonwealth Games Champion in 4:29.01, 2x World Champion (2022 and 2023) in times of  4:32.04 and 4:27.11, and the current world record holder at 4:25.87 set at 2023 Canadian trials. Her most recent result in this event is a 4:29.96 from the 2023 US Open. Expect her to set another blazing fast time and to qualify for Paris with ease.

 

The battle for the 2^nd spot will be fascinating with 3 other swimmers with an OQT and one with an OCT. Mary-Sophie Harvey is next in the rankings. She’s only raced this event at 3 different meets since the start of last year but she’s seeded 2^nd here thanks to the 4:36.79 she swam at the Camille Muffat Meeting this year. That is the fastest time she’s swum since she recorded her PB of 4:36.48 back in 2017. She’s set PBs in other events this year too so it shows she’s in good form overall.

 

Ella Jansen will also be trying to improve upon her PB. After going 4:44.23 at 2023 Canadian Trials, she set a new PB of 4:40.65 at the Ontario Summer Championships before smashing that to 4:37.35 to win a silver medal at World Junior Championships and get under the OQT. She has only raced it once this calendar year at the 2024 World Championships where she swam 4:44.93 to just miss the final. If she has a good headspace, the talent is certainly there to take 2^nd spot at Olympic Trials.

 

Julie Brousseau has also had a very similar progression over the last year. She went 4:45.28 at 2023 Canadian Trials and then dropped that time to 4:42.90 at the Ontario Summer Championships. She would then go on to win bronze at the World Junior Championships in 4:38.45, just 0.08 seconds under the OQT. The highlight of her year might just be the gold medal she won at the Pan American Games where she was just a bit off her PB in 4:43.76. This year, her fastest time is 4:48.23 from the Ontario Winter Championships.

 

Sydney Pickrem also has an entry time under the 4:40 mark. She mostly focuses on 200m races these days and it is possible that she’ll end up scratching this event. She has recent times of 4:39.81 from the 2023 Canadian Trials and 4:44.16 from the San Antonio Pro Swim Series this year. If she does swim it, she’ll be a contender for 2^nd place with a full taper given that her PB sits at 4:32.88.

 

Also having a PB under the OQT is Tessa Cieplucha. Just like 3 years ago, this should be her best shot at making the Olympic Team again. After a down 2023 in which her best time was only 4:42.81, she’s already surpassed that mark twice this year going 4:41.54 to win the Knoxville Pro Swim Series and 4:40.80 at World Championships to record the top time in the heats before being unable to replicate it in the finals. Her best time came at the previous Olympic trials so there’s a good chance she’ll be ready to go under the 4:40 mark again here.

 

Two other swimmers worth mentioning here are Mabel Zavaros and Bailey Andison. Zavaros like some of the other older swimmers has raced it sparingly going 4:42.27 at 2023 Canadian Trials and 4:43.55 at the Canadian Open. Those are very consistent times and she could also be on track to go sub 4:40. Andison meanwhile was swum this event much more and recently at the Central Zone Sectionals, she went her best time since 2020 Olympic Trials in 4:43.04. She could also flirt with the 4:40 mark.

 

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Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Summer McIntosh

2. Mary-Sophie Harvey

 

Men's 100m Freestyle

 

 

This should be a fun race ahead of us with several contenders vying for individual and relay spots. No idea why they put this the day after the 200m freestyle though. Unfortunately, the absence of Ruslan Gaziev hurts the depth of the field but there should still be plenty of fast times.

 

Josh Liendo is the favorite in this seed and has the fastest entry time by 0.64 seconds. Despite the quick time, last year was a down year for him in the 100m freestyle. After winning bronze at the 2022 World Championships in a time of 47.55, he had a solid trials swim of 47.86 before being unable to break 48 seconds at the 2023 World Championships resulting in him being eliminated in the semifinals. He’s only swum this event once since at going 48.60 at the US Open. However, he is coming off a stellar NCAA season which includes a title in the 100 yard freestyle. He should have no problem winning and getting under the OQT.

 

With the absence of Gaziev, Javier Acevedo is the next fastest seed. Despite not being used in the 4x100m freestyle relay at all in Tokyo, Acevedo has been swimming his fastest times in this event over the last two years and is now a core member of that relay. In 2023, he went a career best 48.50 at Canadian Trials and has been able to produce 4 more sub 49 second clockings after that. He also has constantly delivered great relay splits having had produced a sub 48 split in 5 of 7 relay legs since 2022. He recently produced his best split of 47.51 at the 2024 World Championships.

 

After taking the majority of the 2023 season off, Yuri Kisil is back in the pool looking to qualify for his 3^rd Olympics. He came back at the Rotterdam Qualification meet in December where he posted a 49.00. He hasn’t quite been able to match that time since though with his best time this year being a 49.42 from the Western Canadian Championships. Should he qualify, he would be a massive boost to the Canadian relay as his PB rests at 48.15 along with a PB split of 47.15 from the 2020 Olympics.

 

Edouard Fullum-Huot will be looking to make the senior team in back to back years. Last year, he broke the 50 second mark for the first time in his career at Canadian Trials which qualified him for the 4x100m freestyle relay. He would lower that mark even further at the Pan American Games where he recorded a time of 49.33. He’ll look to break the 49 second mark this year and secure a spot on the relay team again.

 

Despite coming in as the 5^th seed in this event, Finlay Knox could have a lot more to give in this event. I’ve already highlighted how much of an improvement he’s made in some of his other events since his move from to HPC Vancouver. He’s only had one individual swim since then which was a 49.98 at a UBC Winter event. However, he recorded a 47.96 split in the heats of the 4x100m freestyle relay at the 2024 World Championships which was the fastest on the team. His PB still rests at 49.23 while his best time in the Olympic qualification period is 49.50. However, that relay split shows he should be able to produce a time in the mid-48 range.

 

Antoine Sauve has quickly ascended the ranks as one of the top sprint freestyle prospects in the nation. He recently set a PB of 49.51 at the Eastern Canadian Championships this year. That time would have missed 4^th place by 0.01 at 2023 Trials. He also had a notable 48.73 split at the 2023 World Junior Championships to lead the Canadian team to a bronze medal. The potential is definitely there and if he has another big drop, he could produce a sub 49 second time and possibly find himself on this relay.

 

The most interesting name comes all the way at the #44 seed which is Ilya Kharun. With Gaziev out, it opens up the door for someone to step up and he may very well be that guy. Kharun has only recorded six results in this event in long course with his best time coming at 51.61 at a 2023 TYR Pro Swim Series meet. However, he has significantly improved since that time and has featured on the ASU 4x100m yard freestyle relays. His personal best in short course yards is 42.18 from this February which, according to the swimswam converter, translates to a 48.41 long course meter time which would put him right near the top.

 

Also can’t forget about Stephen Calkins. Calkins has a PB under 49 seconds (48.96) set at the 2022 Commonwealth Games but has only broken 49.5 seconds on one other occasion.

 

Filip Senc-Samardzic and Paul Dardis are other youngsters to keep an eye on and they’ll be looking to improve on their PBs set this year.

 

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Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Josh Liendo (individual + relay)

2. Javier Acevedo (relay only)

3. Ilya Kharun (relay only)

4. Yuri Kisil (relay only)

5. Finlay Knox (relay only)

 

Women's 200m Backstroke

 

 

Horrible scheduling to have this the day after the 100m backstroke. If Summer McIntosh were to swim this event, there is a very strong chance she would win this race. But since it’s only her 7^th best event, she won’t be racing this. With the absence of McIntosh and Taylor Ruck, this race could potentially be wide open for qualification.

 

The winner should still be pretty clear though. Kylie Masse has the fastest entry time in this event by almost 3 seconds. Just like in the 100m backstroke, this event has been a bit of a struggle for her since the Tokyo Olympics. She’s failed to break the 2:07 mark since those games with her best time a 2:07.13 at 2023 Canadian Trials. She placed 5^th at the 2023 World Championships in 2:07.52 marking back to back years where she failed to medal in this event. However, she’s shown signs of rounding back into form this year posting a time of 2:08.44 at the Spanish Winter Championships which is faster than she was at that point of time in 2023. Even in her “poor races”, Masse still easily clears the OQT and we should expect her to comfortably win this race.

 

Ingrid Wilm comes in with the next fastest time. Known more for her sprint backstroke ability, she has improved in this discipline setting a new PB of 2:10.19 at 2023 Canadian Trials, under the OQT. However, since that swim, her best has only been 2:11.88 at the 2024 World Aquatics Championships where she was knocked out in the semifinals. She also had a showing of 2:12.67 to place 19^th in the 2023 World Championships. Should she be on form, there’s a good chance she’ll secure a qualification berth, but if not, that could potentially open the door for another swimmer.

 

Enter the two teenagers from Toronto HPC. After setting a PB of 2:14.24 at 2023 Canadian trials, Delia Lloyd reset her PB to 2:13.30 at the Ontario Summer Championships in July and then to 2:12.24 at the Canadian Championships in August. She would set her current PB of 2:11.74 at the Knoxville TYR Pro Swim Series in January this year. She also had a good in season swim at the Canadian Open to win the event with her second fastest time of her career in 2:11.95. Given that the OQT is 2:10.39, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that she could drop her time down to that.

 

Placing 2^nd at the Canadian Open was Lloyd’s teammate, Madison Kryger. She went 2:15.81 at the 2023 Canadian Trials before improving by a second to 2:14.80 at the Mel Zajac Meet. She would drop almost another full second two just over a month later at the Canadian Championships to bring her PB to 2:13.85. Then at the Canadian Open this year, she reset her PB to 2:13.04 in the heats before smashing that mark to produce 2:11.96 in the final. With another good taper for trials, it’s very possible she could reach that 2:10.39 as well.

 

After an injury plagued 2023 year, Regan Rathwell is back. She has the 2^nd fastest PB in the field from a 2:09.54 she swam at the 2022 Mare Nostrum which is under the OQT. She’s swam long course once this year going 2:12.08 at the San Antonio TYR Pro Swim Series. That’s a solid showing to show that she’s rounding back into form.

 

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Predicted Qualifiers:

1. Kylie Masse

2. Madison Kryger

 

With my craziest prediction of the series so far, I’m going to predict Madison Kryger to drop another monster PB to qualify for her first Olympics at the age of 15.

 

Men's 800m Freestyle

 

 

Don’t really have much to say here.

 

Eric Brown is the clear favourite in this race having an entry time almost 7 seconds ahead of Alex Axon. Considering he’s won every distance race this decade so far, it’s safe to say he’ll do so again. Brown’s time is actually in range of the consideration time but AQUA recently issued a memo to all national federations saying there’s a good chance that OCT athletes will be invited so he’ll probably need an OQT. In terms of his progression, he set a PB of 7:56.96 from 2023 Canadian Trials. He’s then only swum this at competition twice going 8:01.41 at the 2023 World Championships and 8:01.35 at the US Open. The 2023 US Open Swim was 3 seconds faster than he was at the 2022 edition so that could bode well for him here.

 

Alexander Axon comes in with the second fastest entry time. His fastest two times of his career have both been swum at Canadian trials with him going 8:02.24 in 2022 and 8:03.05 in 2023. He recently had a big breakthrough in the 400m freestyle going 3:49.33 to hack almost two seconds under his old PB. He didn’t swim the 800m freestyle at that event so if has a similar progression here, he’s on track to have his first swim under 8 minutes.

 

Timothe Barbeau is the youngest of the top 3 entries which naturally means he has the most potential to drop big time. He swam his PB of 8:04.72 at the 2023 World Junior Championships to place 10^th. After an 8:14.95 showing at the Pan American Games, he went 8:13.82 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in March before going 8:06.73 at the Canadian Open. He should be on track to drop another PB at Olympic Trials.

 

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Predicted Qualifiers:

None

 

I'm just getting a chance to really go through @Topicmaster1010 excellent previews for the trials here. The W 400 IM is incredible, and frankly I didn't realize Canada was so stacked in this race. 

 

4 Women have entry times under the OQT, with three of them having times this season that would have gotten them into the final in Tokyo (and the last two WCs). Then another two actually did compete in Tokyo. 

 

Honestly, passively thought of this race as Summer et al. But there's some serious talent here. Should be a fun race! (for second, anyway).

Edited May 15 by orangeman

[Topicmaster1010 4,177]

Nicholas Bennett broke his own Canadian record in the SB14 100m breaststroke today

[JoshMartini007 2,536]

1 hour ago, intoronto said:

ANy estimate on team size?

Still too early to say, but we're probably on pace for 25-30 athletes.

[intoronto 5,638]

Random but former Swim Canada CEO Pierre Lafontaine is the head coach of CHINA 

[Topicmaster1010 4,177]

9 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Random but former Swim Canada CEO Pierre Lafontaine is the head coach of CHINA 

He is the personal coach of Tang Qianting, who recently went 1:04 in the womens 100 breaststroke at their trials

[orangeman 1,989]

38 minutes ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

He is the personal coach of Tang Qianting, who recently went 1:04 in the womens 100 breaststroke at their trials

How much "flu medication" did she have in her system at the time? 

 

It's unfortunate that when there's a big cover up everyone is suspicious, even if they deserve respect. 

[Topicmaster1010 4,177]

Not surprisingly, Summer McIntosh has scratched the 100m backstroke