Who is a lock to win a Gold Medal at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[dodge 1,024]

Some sports are more predictable than others. In rowing by the time the Olympics start we can guarantee about 8 of the gold medal winners 

 

Track cycling is similar. Effectively any of the “against the clock” events we’ll have a fair idea.

 

 

[rybak 3,217]

I would say  women's water polo team.

[Makedonas 2,155]

3 minutes ago, rybak said:

I would say  women's water polo team.

I don't think so. They didn't win a medal at the World Championships last year, and this year they won gold but had a few narrow wins.

[mpjmcevoy 362]

9 minutes ago, dodge said:

Some sports are more predictable than others. In rowing by the time the Olympics start we can guarantee about 8 of the gold medal winners 

 

Track cycling is similar. Effectively any of the “against the clock” events we’ll have a fair idea.

 

 

 

It's VERY difficult to see past the Dutch male sprinters, even now, for example.

The women sprinters looks likely to be a straight showdown - Germany v Great Britain

Men's and Women's  team pursuit a bit more unpredictable.

[Topicmaster1010 4,179]

In swimming,  Summer McIntosh should be a heavy favourite to win the women's 400m Individual Medley.

 

And if she doesn't swim the 800m freestyle (which seems very likely), then Ledecky should be a lock in that event too.

[mpjmcevoy 362]

15 minutes ago, phelps said:

no, of course...

 

but, provided anything unthinkable under normal circumtances happens, there are some competitions that have an already designated winner

 

and we can't ignore this

Not that many though.

 

Yes, some would be an almighty shock, but any one event can go askew.

 

The last four Olympics the Chinese have been red hot favourites for a clean sweep - and in every single games someone got them at least once. Mitcham, Boudia, Laugher & Mears, Daley & Lee - every four years, like clockwork, somebody has the best day of their lives at the expense of China - and its been 4 different events.

 

Maybe this will finally be their sweep. They ought to. But... you can trace a hint of the pattern all the way back to 1988. China dominate, someone spoils the perfect....

[CCB 565]

Dutch men's teamsprint track cycling definitely not a lock in. What about the strong team of Australia?

In the individual sprint I see two favorites: Matthew Richardson and Harrie Lavreysen.

[Olympian1010 7,976]

55 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Is anything really guaranteed in sport? 

It'd be a lot more boring if that was the case.

[Timezone 27]

4 hours ago, Dkats said:

I would say US Men’s basketball team assuming that they actually bring a full strength team 

Even at full strength USA not the juggernaut they once were 

 

[Timezone 27]

1 hour ago, phelps said:

just to name a few...

 

 Leon Marchand (swimming, men's 200m and 400 IM at least)

Track Cycling,  men's Team Sprint and Harrie Lavreysen (Individual Sprint)

 Karlos May Nasar (weightlifting, men's -89kg)

 all the table tennis, weightlifting and diving competitions in which they compete

I read somewhere a chinsese swimmer posted a time very close to Marchand in 200IM