Who is a lock to win a Gold Medal at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[dodge 1,027]

Some sports are more predictable than others. In rowing by the time the Olympics start we can guarantee about 8 of the gold medal winners 

 

Track cycling is similar. Effectively any of the “against the clock” events we’ll have a fair idea.

 

 

[rybak 3,239]

I would say  women's water polo team.

[Makedonas 2,197]

  On 2/25/2024 at 9:06 PM, rybak said:

I would say  women's water polo team.

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I don't think so. They didn't win a medal at the World Championships last year, and this year they won gold but had a few narrow wins.

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 2/25/2024 at 8:59 PM, dodge said:

Some sports are more predictable than others. In rowing by the time the Olympics start we can guarantee about 8 of the gold medal winners 

 

Track cycling is similar. Effectively any of the “against the clock” events we’ll have a fair idea.

 

 

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It's VERY difficult to see past the Dutch male sprinters, even now, for example.

The women sprinters looks likely to be a straight showdown - Germany v Great Britain

Men's and Women's  team pursuit a bit more unpredictable.

[Topicmaster1010 4,475]

In swimming,  Summer McIntosh should be a heavy favourite to win the women's 400m Individual Medley.

 

And if she doesn't swim the 800m freestyle (which seems very likely), then Ledecky should be a lock in that event too.

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 2/25/2024 at 8:57 PM, phelps said:

no, of course...

 

but, provided anything unthinkable under normal circumtances happens, there are some competitions that have an already designated winner

 

and we can't ignore this

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Not that many though.

 

Yes, some would be an almighty shock, but any one event can go askew.

 

The last four Olympics the Chinese have been red hot favourites for a clean sweep - and in every single games someone got them at least once. Mitcham, Boudia, Laugher & Mears, Daley & Lee - every four years, like clockwork, somebody has the best day of their lives at the expense of China - and its been 4 different events.

 

Maybe this will finally be their sweep. They ought to. But... you can trace a hint of the pattern all the way back to 1988. China dominate, someone spoils the perfect....

[CCB 565]

Dutch men's teamsprint track cycling definitely not a lock in. What about the strong team of Australia?

In the individual sprint I see two favorites: Matthew Richardson and Harrie Lavreysen.

[Olympian1010 8,070]

  On 2/25/2024 at 8:52 PM, intoronto said:

Is anything really guaranteed in sport? 

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It'd be a lot more boring if that was the case.

[Timezone 27]

  On 2/25/2024 at 6:12 PM, Dkats said:

I would say US Men’s basketball team assuming that they actually bring a full strength team 

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Even at full strength USA not the juggernaut they once were 

 

[Timezone 27]

  On 2/25/2024 at 8:49 PM, phelps said:

just to name a few...

 

 Leon Marchand (swimming, men's 200m and 400 IM at least)

Track Cycling,  men's Team Sprint and Harrie Lavreysen (Individual Sprint)

 Karlos May Nasar (weightlifting, men's -89kg)

 all the table tennis, weightlifting and diving competitions in which they compete

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I read somewhere a chinsese swimmer posted a time very close to Marchand in 200IM