Tokyo 2020 Day after Day as it could have happened

[phelps 8,766]

2 minutes ago, EupenM said:

http://www.fiba.basketball/olympics/women/2020/news/experts-make-their-early-picks-can-anybody-challenge-usa-and-who-is-going-to-light-it-up

 

And it's time for women's final tournament. They bilieve that  will be on the podium! What do you think? What is your top 3?

USA just unbeatable, then AUS and ESP clear favourite for the remaining 2 medals (which one depending on the quarterfinals' draw, who's lucky to escape the USA in the semifinal match would eventually get silver)...

 

FRA and maybe BEL outsiders, but with very remote chances to upset the top 3...

 

all the rest of the field, I fear they would be satisfied with simple participation...

[Benolympique 2,451]

1 hour ago, phelps said:

USA just unbeatable, then AUS and ESP clear favourite for the remaining 2 medals (which one depending on the quarterfinals' draw, who's lucky to escape the USA in the semifinal match would eventually get silver)...

 

FRA and maybe BEL outsiders, but with very remote chances to upset the top 3...

 

all the rest of the field, I fear they would be satisfied with simple participation...

Usa - Australia - Spain 

[intoronto 6,941]

4 hours ago, phelps said:

USA just unbeatable, then AUS and ESP clear favourite for the remaining 2 medals (which one depending on the quarterfinals' draw, who's lucky to escape the USA in the semifinal match would eventually get silver)...

 

FRA and maybe BEL outsiders, but with very remote chances to upset the top 3...

 

all the rest of the field, I fear they would be satisfied with simple participation...

Canada would not be satisfied with participation. Its a medal or bust for the team

[rafalgorka 1,821]

Still thinking about my swimming predictions.

 

I will try this thing:

 

in every event I will prepare the ranking list, like in quali system

best times, long course, period from 01/03/2019 to today (which is olympic qualifying period)

 

To begin with:

M 400 IM – OQT 4.15.84 – OST 4.21.46

 

 

 

1. Daiya Seto                  JPN     4.07.95 (19)    wch 19 – 1      2020 S.C. – x  94 S Rio - 3
2. Jay Litherland             USA    4.09.22 (19)    wch 19 – 2      2020 S.C. – x  95 Rio - 5
3. Max Litchfield           GBR   4.10.94 (19)    wch 19 – 7      2020 S.C. – 5  95 Rio - 4
4. Charlie Swanson        USA    4.11.46 (19)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x  98
5. Ilia Borodin                RUS    4.11.50 (20)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x  03
6. Shun Wang                 CHN   4.11.89 (20)    wch 19 – 23    2020 S.C. – x  94 Rio - 10
7. David Verraszto         HUN   4.11.90 (19)    wch 19 – 13    2020 S.C. – 7  88 Rio - 12
8. Apostolos PapastamosGRE   4.11.93 (19)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x  01 S

 

 

 

9. Lewis Clareburt          NZL    4.12.07 (19)    wch 19 – 3      2020 S.C. – 25 99
10. Jacob Heidtmann       GER    4.12.40 (20)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – 14 94 S   Rio - DSQ (but not for doping, some stroke technic issues, If I remember correctly )
11. Yuki Ikari                   JPN     4.12.54 (19)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x  00
12.             Peter Bernek               HUN   4.12.80 (19)    wch 19 – 5      2020 S.C. – x 92
13. Jeremy Desplanches   SUI     4.12.86 (19)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x 94 Rio - 13
14. Joan Lluis Pons Ramon ESP 4.13.30 (19)    wch 19 – 4      2020 S.C. – 16 96 S Rio - 8
15. Arjan Knipping          NED   4.13.46 (19)    wch 19 – 8      2020 S.C. – 36 94
16. Brandonn Almeida     BRA   4.13.69 (19)    wch 19 – 11    2020 S.C. – 8 97     Rio - 15  

You can find here:

Olympic qualifying time and olympic selection time

Best time in LC since 01/03/2019 (in the qualifying period) - and whether this time was achieved in 19 or 20

Place in LC wch 19

Place in 2020 SC ranking

Year of birth

S at the end means: English Wikipedia says the swimmer has been already selected to the games

Place in Rio 2016

 

Max 2 swimmers from one NOC allowed, like in the real games

 

Quite interesting stats for me, I guess

 

But early thoughts:

No Kosuke Hagino JPN in ranking, Rio - 1, but he is 2nd in 2020 SC ranks, and obviously medal contender

Hard to predict who will qualify for USA - e.g. will be Chase Kalisz, Rio - 2, included in Team Tokyo?

No AUS swimmers???

GBR olympic team also hard to predict - Duncan Scott 1st in 2020 SC ranks, Tom Dean (born 2000) 4h in 2020 SC ranks

No POL swimmers, but it will not change in this event, I'm afraid

Dark horse out of top 16 yet - IMHO: Maxim Stupin RUS (born 2000)

 

More still to come, we will see where we get from here...

 

 

 

[rafalgorka 1,821]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/08/olympics-official-not-certain-tokyo-games-will-go-ahead-coronavirus?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR3tp_-nr5dX-eutn9YiZ2Y0tqjZft4BHgF4zrcjyaEmyUfz3-H1dA9MNw8

 

 

Dick Pound 's bla bla bla again. He talks too much, IMO. He really likes to be in the spotlight. And I really don't like the guy.

 

But he may be right this time, I'm afraid.

[phelps 8,766]

10 hours ago, intoronto said:

Canada would not be satisfied with participation. Its a medal or bust for the team

under normal circumstance, I don't see how they can get a medal...

 

but in this crazy covid-era anything can happen and even a Canadian medal wouldn't surprise me that much...

[OlympicsFan 860]

1 hour ago, rafalgorka said:

Still thinking about my swimming predictions.

 

I will try this thing:

 

in every event I will prepare the ranking list, like in quali system

best times, long course, period from 01/03/2019 to today (which is olympic qualifying period)

 

To begin with:

M 400 IM – OQT 4.15.84 – OST 4.21.46

 

 

 

1. Daiya Seto                  JPN     4.07.95 (19)    wch 19 – 1      2020 S.C. – x  94 S Rio - 3
2. Jay Litherland             USA    4.09.22 (19)    wch 19 – 2      2020 S.C. – x  95 Rio - 5
3. Max Litchfield           GBR   4.10.94 (19)    wch 19 – 7      2020 S.C. – 5  95 Rio - 4
4. Charlie Swanson        USA    4.11.46 (19)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x  98
5. Ilia Borodin                RUS    4.11.50 (20)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x  03
6. Shun Wang                 CHN   4.11.89 (20)    wch 19 – 23    2020 S.C. – x  94 Rio - 10
7. David Verraszto         HUN   4.11.90 (19)    wch 19 – 13    2020 S.C. – 7  88 Rio - 12
8. Apostolos PapastamosGRE   4.11.93 (19)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x  01 S

 

 

 

9. Lewis Clareburt          NZL    4.12.07 (19)    wch 19 – 3      2020 S.C. – 25 99
10. Jacob Heidtmann       GER    4.12.40 (20)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – 14 94 S   Rio - DSQ (but not for doping, some stroke technic issues, If I remember correctly )
11. Yuki Ikari                   JPN     4.12.54 (19)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x  00
12.             Peter Bernek               HUN   4.12.80 (19)    wch 19 – 5      2020 S.C. – x 92
13. Jeremy Desplanches   SUI     4.12.86 (19)    wch 19 – x      2020 S.C. – x 94 Rio - 13
14. Joan Lluis Pons Ramon ESP 4.13.30 (19)    wch 19 – 4      2020 S.C. – 16 96 S Rio - 8
15. Arjan Knipping          NED   4.13.46 (19)    wch 19 – 8      2020 S.C. – 36 94
16. Brandonn Almeida     BRA   4.13.69 (19)    wch 19 – 11    2020 S.C. – 8 97     Rio - 15  

You can find here:

Olympic qualifying time and olympic selection time

Best time in LC since 01/03/2019 (in the qualifying period) - and whether this time was achieved in 19 or 20

Place in LC wch 19

Place in 2020 SC ranking

Year of birth

S at the end means: English Wikipedia says the swimmer has been already selected to the games

Place in Rio 2016

 

Max 2 swimmers from one NOC allowed, like in the real games

 

Quite interesting stats for me, I guess

 

But early thoughts:

No Kosuke Hagino JPN in ranking, Rio - 1, but he is 2nd in 2020 SC ranks, and obviously medal contender

Hard to predict who will qualify for USA - e.g. will be Chase Kalisz, Rio - 2, included in Team Tokyo?

No AUS swimmers???

GBR olympic team also hard to predict - Duncan Scott 1st in 2020 SC ranks, Tom Dean (born 2000) 4h in 2020 SC ranks

No POL swimmers, but it will not change in this event, I'm afraid

Dark horse out of top 16 yet - IMHO: Maxim Stupin RUS (born 2000)

 

More still to come, we will see where we get from here...

 

 

 

I think your rankings are wrong, for example you forgot Hayang (who could be a dark horse alongside Foster). Also I don’t think that Scott (or Dean) will swim the 400 IM, but who knows ...

[rafalgorka 1,821]

Just now, OlympicsFan said:

I think your rankings are wrong, for example you forgot Hayang (who could be a dark horse alongside Foster). Also I don’t think that Scott (or Dean) will swim the 400 IM, but who knows ...

I used FINA ranking website to do it.

 

www.fina.org/fina-rankings/filter/overall-rankings

[rafalgorka 1,821]

@OlympicsFan

 

http://www.fina.org/fina-rankings/results?top=100&gender=Men&year=All&poolConfiguration=LCM&distance=All&style=All&timesMode=BestTimes&continentId=All&countryId=All&startDate=01%2F03%2F2019&endDate=08%2F01%2F2021&type=overall-rankings&selectedGroup=Freestyle&selectedGender=Men&selectedDistance=50

 

I think Qin Hayang hasn't got OQT set yet.

But he may be a medal contender, you are right.

[rafalgorka 1,821]

@OlympicsFan

I agree Cameron Foster may be a dark horse.

 

But - generally - it is not that simple - age is not an only factor in these predictions.

Experience matters a lot, too.

 

Have a good day.