Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions Road to Paris 2024

[Epic Failure 197]

39 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

I think such a large number of bronzes is the classic sign of caution. In recent cycles, GBR have usually been a little gold heavy, rather than bronze heavy.

 

 

 

 I think 20 golds are well within reach.

That was sort of my point. I think the total number of medals is likely to be pretty accurate but I'm not remotely convinced that I got the colours right.

 

One easy example to show what I was doing is that I have Molly Caudrey down for bronze. It certainly wouldn't be a shock if that's where she finished, but neither would it surprise me if she were a top the podium.

[Fly_like_a_don 1,054]

7 hours ago, Gagaska93 said:

Look at my simulation

 

https://x.com/Igrzyska2024/status/1800452575268917752

Is there a full stimulation u have done

[RussB 87]

4 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

That was sort of my point. I think the total number of medals is likely to be pretty accurate but I'm not remotely convinced that I got the colours right.

 

One easy example to show what I was doing is that I have Molly Caudrey down for bronze. It certainly wouldn't be a shock if that's where she finished, but neither would it surprise me if she were a top the podium.

I have the GB gold count at 20-24 range mainly driven by cycling (cross discipline) and rowing contributing double digits. Those sports I feel very confident in.

 

athletics and swimming is harder to predict but I think both should be able to contribute. Keely and men’s 4x2 for instance should be firm firm favs. 

 

Beyond them I expect traditional strengths in sailing and equestrian to have a good degree of success. 
 

it’s not an exact science though we are sticking our fingers in the air; the team has a wide variety of medal hopes across sports and it just depends on how the cookie crumbles. Statistically being that bronze heavy relative to gold and silver would be highly unlikely though!

[De_Gambassi 999]

13 hours ago, phelps said:

Italian biggest sports website (OA) full predictions

 

https://www.oasport.it/2024/07/olimpiadi-parigi-2024-il-medagliere-di-oa-sport-tutti-i-podi-italia-ottava-francia-terza/

 

once again, imho,  and maybe even  and  have been underestimated, meanwhile  and, above all,  have been clearly overestimated

I don't think 60-65 medals for France is that much of an overestimation. Myself, I'm about 55-60 medals and I was trying to keep my expectations down. Gold medals is another subject though.

Edited 2 hours ago by De_Gambassi