Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[Josh 11,099]

  On 5/13/2024 at 7:20 PM, TeamGB said:

I tried hard not be be but I guess its difficult not to, just out of interest, where would you say I’m being too hopeful?

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I’m not him, but I’d say Choong in men’s modern pentathlon. Egyptians have been quite dominant on the World Cup circuit lately, and whoever the Egyptian federation selects will probably be the favourites for Olympic gold. He’ll be in the mix for a medal though. 
 

Also Morgan Lake in women’s high jump, she’s competed at 6 or so competitions this year and has only managed a SB of 1.92m. 
 

Rest of the medal (and gold) chances seem accurate, but yeah absolutely no way Great Britain wins that many medals. 

[Dkats 298]

  On 5/13/2024 at 7:20 PM, TeamGB said:

I tried hard not be be but I guess its difficult not to, just out of interest, where would you say I’m being too hopeful?

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I think I disagree with your sailing prediction of 3 golds. The men’s Finn event which GB won gold at every games 2000-2020 isn’t in the Olympics anymore. Also gone is the woman’s 470 which GB won in 2016, 2020 and silver in 2012. So that’s 2 reliable events for you guys that isn’t going to be in Paris. You will likely still win a gold in sailing tho but can’t see 3

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

  On 5/13/2024 at 7:31 PM, Josh said:

I’m not him, but I’d say Choong in men’s modern pentathlon. Egyptians have been quite dominant on the World Cup circuit lately, and whoever the Egyptian federation selects will probably be the favourites for Olympic gold. He’ll be in the mix for a medal though. 

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On Choong, he's incredibly disillusioned with how the sport is being governed but he still performs when it matters - he won the World Champs last year and would have won the World Cup Final in Ankara if he hadn't slipped at the end of the run.

 

He'll go into Paris as one of the favourites - the only thing that would stop him getting a medal is if he draws a donkey in the riding. 

[LDOG 2,425]

  On 5/13/2024 at 7:20 PM, TeamGB said:

I tried hard not be be but I guess its difficult not to, just out of interest, where would you say I’m being too hopeful?

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9 medals between slalom and shotgun is almost every single of your guys winning a medal. I can safely predict, in such random sports, that it'll not happen, even if they all won a WCh medal during the cycle.

 

4 medals in TKD, less random sport but with loads of upsets, especially at the olympics. 4 medals would be a perfect performance. 

 

2 medals in Hockey, quite unlikely given neither is a favorite to begin with.

 

Other than that you don't predict anything crazy but it's the best case scenario in many of them. Like Athletics, Sailing, MP, BMX, all sports that often have slight upsets or with a large pool of medal candidates.

 

 

Edited May 13, 2024 by LDOG

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

  On 5/13/2024 at 11:49 AM, TeamGB said:

I'll give a GB prediction a go, although I'm sure there will be some subconscious bias in there.

 

Artistic Swimming - 1 medal - Kate Shortman and Izzy Thorpe have really impressed me this year, and I think they could win a medal in the duet. Obviously artistic swimming isn't really my specialist subject, and it's difficult to compare due to the changing scoring systems, but I think they could earn bronze or maybe even silver.

Diving - 1 gold, 5 medals - I think GB can medal in all 4 of the synchros (W 3m most unlikely), and there are a few individual medal chances. We always manage to sneak a gold and I'm hopeful, but not confident, it could happen again.

Swimming - 3 Gold, 9 Medals - This is an event will plenty of medal chances but few nailed on golds. I think both mens Freestyle relays can win and I think another Gold can come from. Men's 100m Breast,50m Free, 200m Free and 200m IM. Other medal chances include Men's Medley, 100m Back, 400m IM, Women's 400m IM and 4x200m Free.

Archery - 1 medal - The women's recurve team have been unlucky so far in terms of qualification, but I think they are up there for a medal if both Bryony or Penny are on form.

Athletics - 2 Golds, 10 medals - This sport is in a similar situation to swimming, where we could potentially medal in all track events from 100m - 1500m for both genders, as well as all 5 relays, but similarly come away with a Tokyo sized haul. The contending field events include high jump, pole vault and heptathlon.

Boxing - 2 Golds, 4 medals - Again, not really my expertise but I think we may perform slightly worse than Tokyo.

Canoe Slalom - 3 Golds, 5 medals - The squad is extremely strong but things can very quickly go wrong in this sport. After missing Tokyo I think Joe Clarke will have the fire in his belly to get 2 golds in Kayak, and I think Kimberly can win the extreme event.

BMX freestyle - 2 medals - I think the battle for Gold in the mens event will be between Reilly and Martin. Worthington has not really impressed me in this Olympic cycle, but she may pull something Tokyo-esque out of the bag.

BMX racing - 1 Gold, 2 medals -  doing the test event double does give my confidence and I think the team will replicate the Tokyo results.

Mountain Biking - 1 Gold, 2 medals - Pidcock has to be up there in the Men's event and I think Evie Richards can translate her short track form into a medal.

Road Cycling - 1 medal - Josh Tarling in the time trial, and potentially even more in an unpredictable road race.

Track Cycling - 5 Golds, 6 medals - The growth of the women's sprint squad had been offset by the decline of the men's but I think we will still see more success than Tokyo.

Equestrian - 3 golds, 6 medals - Not really my expertise but I think 3 golds is possible. 

Field Hockey - 2 medals - Both teams should be up there, but I give stronger chances to the men.

Gymnastics - 3 golds, 5 medals - The men's team has grown but the women's is in tatters. I predict GB golds in Men's PH, Vault and Women's Trampoline

Judo - 1 medal - Chelsie Giles should medal, but Lucy Renshall is just too inconsistent to be a medal contender.

Modern Pentathlon - 1 Gold, 2 medals - Joe can defend his title and Bryson should be in the conversation for the women's

Rowing - 6 golds, 7 medals - Reborn after the disaster of Tokyo, British rowing have strong chances to retain all 2023 world titles and add the mens Pair.

Sailing - 3 Golds, 5 Medals - Again very difficult to predict but having qualified all 10 boats again, I think we can match Tokyo

Shooting - 2 golds, 4 medals - It all really depends on wether Llewellyn qualifies, but I think we are contenders in all 5 shotgun events, and 2 women's rifle events.

Skateboarding - 1 Gold, 1 Medal - Sky focusing just on one sport should be enough to win olympic gold.

Sport Climbing - 1 Medal - Toby Roberts is definitely a gold contender in the Combined.

Taekwondo - 2 Gold, 4 medals - All 4 athletes should contend for gold and I would hope at least 2 of them get there.

Triathlon - 2 Gold , 3 medals - The women's team is insanely strong, and I think Yee can go one step further than Tokyo. The mixed relay worries me as we don't have a strong 2nd male athlete.

Weightlifting - 1 medal -  Emily Campbell is up there for 2nd behind the Chinese athlete.

 

Just counted them up and that makes 40 golds and 90 medals, so maybe my subconscious bias was pretty strong.

 

Nonetheless, I would expect an improvement on Tokyo to 30ish golds and 70 medals.

 

 

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Any significance in the colour coding?

[TeamGB 187]

  On 5/13/2024 at 8:46 PM, Rafa Maciel said:

Any significance in the colour coding?

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Changes since Tokyo

[Epic Failure 355]

Yeah, like others, I'd say that's an absolute best case scenario performance for .

 

In isolation none of the predictions are inherently *that* unreasonable but the chances of all of them coming off together are pretty astronomical.

 

If we match our performances in the last 3 Summer Games and come away with around 65 medals with a roughly even split of each colour, I'd be delighted.

[Dragon 1,894]

  On 5/13/2024 at 9:11 PM, Epic Failure said:

Yeah, like others, I'd say that's an absolute best case scenario performance for .

 

In isolation none of the predictions are inherently *that* unreasonable but the chances of all of them coming off together are pretty astronomical.

 

If we match our performances in the last 3 Summer Games and come away with around 65 medals with a roughly even split of each colour, I'd be delighted.

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I'm really worried. Last four Olympics I've predicted 15-18 gold medals every time and been delighted when  they won more.

This year I have GB winning 30. Perhaps this is the year when it goes the other way?

[dantm 32]

  On 5/13/2024 at 11:49 AM, TeamGB said:

Rowing - 6 golds, 7 medals - Reborn after the disaster of Tokyo, British rowing have strong chances to retain all 2023 world titles and add the mens Pair.

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I'm not a rowing fan,but looking at the 2023 Worlds where GB won 6 gold medals,it seems to include 2 Golds for Para Rowing?

 

 

[mpjmcevoy 362]

My own predictions at the moment

 

 

Artistic Swimming

 

Likely : 0 medal

Stretch : 1 medal, Women's Pair

 

The GB pair have made sensational improvement in a sport that not a bugger who watches the pair patriotically will understand! There's no way for someone like me to grade them except by reference to previous results, but they seem to be consistently there or therebouts, even at global level. More likely to finish commendably but medalless, but a sneaky bronze is not out of the question

 

Diving 

 

Likely : 4 medals : , Spendolini-Sirieux, 10m, W 10mS, M 10mS, M 3m S

Stretch : 6 medals, 1 gold : The above plus Laugher 3m, W3 mS. - M10mS for the stretch gold

 

One of GBR's strongest events, despite Chinese dominance. 3 medals would genuinely be the bottom of expectations. Laugher has rediscovered his unfortunate one flakey dive per comp habit, but GBR are undoubtedly the second best nation after China in the absence of Russia, and I would imagine at worst 1 or 2 silvers. Andrea SS has made herself look a woman apart behind the two Chinese, and while Laugher could arguably hit a gold if all went right on the day, Andrea looks more likely to get a medal in my view. The best medal bets, however, are clearly the synchros - 2 are heavy favourites for a medal, 3 likely shouts and all 4 possibles.

 

Swimming -

 

Likely : 1 gold (M4x2 free), 7 medals : M50mFr, M 200mFr, M100mBr, M200mBk, M200IM, M4x100MedR, M4x200FrR,

Stretch : 4 gold, 14 medals (golds, M4x 2 free, M100mBr, M200mFr, M 4 x 100mMed), medals : Above + M100mFr , 2nd M200fr, 2nd M200mIM, M4 x 100mFr, X4 x 100mMed, W200mIM, Mens 10k

 

I'm insanely optimistic here - no way GBR win anything like 14 medals - hell, they might well  not win the seven - but I've rarely seen a squad with just so much depth - this isn't your grandad's 1 breaststroker and some cabbages squad. The 4 x 200 may be the likeliest gold of the entire Games for GBR, though not certain, of course.

 

Archery

 

Likely : 0 medal

Stretch : 1 medal - W Ind

 

I just can't give a chance to a team that's still by no means set to even qualify. Healy of two years ago was bordering on a likely. No longer.

 

Athletics

 

 

Likely: 4 medals : M4x100, W4x100, W800, WHept

Good shout : M100, M400, M1500, W200, W PV, W4x100

Stretch : 19 medals. W100, M200, M800, 2nd W800, 2nd M1500, W1500, W100h, M4x400, X 4x400

 

Athletics, because of its depth and global appeal is always the Roulette wheel; you spin and you hope. Hence the extra category for those not LIKELY to medal, but in with a very genuine chance, and you'd hope to pick up at least a couple of them in a good wind. The likely 4; the sprint relays, Keely and KJT are the only four who really ought to medal if they maintain fitness and form. The stretch group are those who you would not be shocked to medal in exactly, but you kind of expect not to, and while a medal or two from this group would be lovely, nobody's counting on them. Of these the W1500 is the hardest to admit, but Laura's time may be up - thank goodness she got her global medals in the end.

 

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that there's a miracle marathon bronze in a tactical race, or Cindy 'christmas' Sember ("why does she run at Christmas? Because it's Cindy Sember!") nudges a medal, but that would be heroic wish fulfilment.

 

Overall though, GBR are in the odd position of quite a lot of shots, perhaps more than usual, but no gold medal favourites at all. That said, they must credibly have 5 or 6 gold 'chances'

 

Basketball : Will not enter

 

Badminton : 

 

Likely : 0 medals. Neither Kirsty nor the men's doubles team seem likely to trouble the later stages of their events

 

Boxing

 

 

Canoe Slalom -

 

Likely: 3 medals - MK1, MKX, WKX

Stretch : 5 medals - above plus WC1, WK1

 

Canoe Slalom has quietly become a hitter for GB, not least because of Joe Clarke, who seems to have developed a Laura Kenny like zen about the KX that belies its seeming randomness. Kimberley Wood, likewise seems a strong shout in WKX, even if her colleague Mallory Franklin looks a better traditional medal shout. I think there is still, technically, the possibility of another MKX speciaist taking the second seat behind Joe, as Burgess has not yet been given  the place.

 

Canoe Sprint : Unlikely to enter

 

Cycling :

 

BMX freestyle -

Likely : 1 medal

Stretch: 2 medals, 1 gold

 

BMX racing

Likely : 1 medal

Stretch: 2 medals, 1 gold

 

Mountain Biking -

 

Likely : 1 medal

Stretch:  1 gold

 

Road Cycling

 

Likely : 1 medal (MTT)

Stretch: 3 medals, above + WTT and WRR

 

Track Cycling - 

Likely : 7-9 medals, 2 gold (W Spr and TSpri)

Stretch : 10 medals, 5-6 gold, mainly from Finucane and Archibald

 

The team is possibly the strongest its ever been en masse, albeit with gaps (men's road race, men's track sprint events). You can never fully manage madisons, omniums and Kierins, but I could make an argument why GBR are either first or second favourite for almost every track event outside men's sprint events. The big danger is the Italian endurance women, Kopecky and Wild

 

Equestrian - 

Likely : 4 medals

Stretch 5-7 medals, 3 gold

 

GBR are always competitive in Horse Valley, but the rise of Charlotte Fry is crucial. No events are off limits here, and double individual medals cannot be ruled out in those events

 

Field Hockey -

 

Likely 0 medals

Stretch 1 medal, Men

 

Fencing : probably no entry

 

Football : No entry.

 

Real dropped ball here, England's women, supplemented with a handful of scots and Welsh would have been serious players here.

 

Gymnastics - 

 

Artistic :

Likely : 2 medals : MPommel, MVault

Stretch 4 medals :  above plus MTeam, W Uneven Bars

 

The women's team, god help 'em, are in absolute tatters; the original likely team of Downie Sr, Ondine, Gadirova Jess, Kinsella and a.n other would have been super competitive across almost all events.  As it is, Beckie's outside chance on Bars is just about all she is likely to right.

 

The men's team are jjuggling talent and injury. Obviously if Whitlock completes clean, he wins - his D score is simply too high for anyone else. The game is in the if. Jarman on Vault is also likely to be worth a shout, and if everyone hits it, the men's team could be there or there abouts.

 

Rhythmic : nada

 

Trampoline:

 

Likely : 1 medal, Women

 

Golf

 

Likely: 0

Stretch : 2 medals, 1 in each event.

 

Golf is just about a crapshoot as a sport at the best of times, but GBR should get 3 shots in the men's event, and a punchers chance in the women's

 

Handball : will not enter

 

Judo -

 

Likely 1 medal - Chelsie Giles

Stretch - 2, Lucy Renshaw

 

IF GB boxing remains strongish, and GB Taekwondo are back on an upward curve, GB Judo is a shambles, yet again elevated by the luck of having a real star in Giles.

 

Modern Pentathlon -

 

Likely, 1 medal, Men's

Stretch, 2 medals 1 gold

 

Rowing -

Likely : 2 golds, 5 medals

Stretch : 8 medals, 4 golds

 

Rugby sevens :

 

Stretch 1 medal  :

GBR have been in decent form recently. If they can keep that going, get a bit of luck, a medal is doable.

 

Sailing

Likely 3-4 medals, 1 gold

Stretch 5-6 medals 2 gold

 

 

Shooting :

Likely 0 medals

Stretch 3 medals

 

This is an 'all right on the night' situation. My gut says 1 medal will be found between Macintosh and Amber

 

Surfing : No entrant

 

Skateboarding -

 

Likely:1 Medal -

If She's fit, Sky Brown should be there at the pointy end.

 

Sport Climbing -

Likely :1 Medal -

 

Toby Roberts looks a major prospect.

 

Taekwondo -

 

Likely 2 medals 

Stretch3- 4 medals

 

Tennis :

stretch, 1 medal, men's doubles.

 

GBR has two of the worlds best specialists, and Dan Evans is super handy

 

Table Tennis

 

Likely : zilch

 

Triathlon -

 

Likey 3 medals, 1 in each event

Stretch 4 medals, 1 gold

 

Not inconceivable GBR get two medals in the women's event if Georgia Taylor Brown and Potter are both at the front of affairs - two of the strongest runners in the field.

 

Volleyball

 

0 medals

 

Weightlifting -

Stretch 1 medal -

 

if she were fully fit, Emily Campbell would be a likely. but she's not, and hasn't been for a while..

 

Wrestling : no entrant

 

So my conservative estimate is around 55 medals and around 18 gold

 

My dreaming estimate ia closer to double that on both counts.

 

I fully expect my caution to be closer to reality.