Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[TeamGB 216]

1 hour ago, dantm said:

The Womens 50m Free evens out with the Mens 50m Free

Both Sjostrom and McEvoy will need to be well below their best to. lose

The Medley Relay is countered by the Womens 4 x200M Free relay

and ZSC evens out with Sam Short in both the 400m/800m especially without the Tunisian.

I wouldnt write off the Womens medley anyway.

The key is Breastroke and we only need one of our main swimmers to be sub 1.06 

Hodges and Strauch have been there and there are other options including Kaylee especially if MOC swims a Sub 58 back.

 

Disagree with the McEvoy point, he could easily drop 0.1-0.2 off his best and he may very well not win, and I don’t think you can argue that’s well off his best.

[Dkats 383]

11 minutes ago, TeamGB said:

 

Disagree with the McEvoy point, he could easily drop 0.1-0.2 off his best and he may very well not win, and I don’t think you can argue that’s well off his best.

He will probably head into Paris as the favourite but there is no margin for error in a 50m race. It’s probably one of the races which anything could happen, maybe an upset 

[dantm 32]

7 hours ago, Dkats said:

He will probably head into Paris as the favourite but there is no margin for error in a 50m race. It’s probably one of the races which anything could happen, maybe an upset 

The same exists with Sjostrom

She swims 23.6 ,she wins

or she swims 23.8,then shes beatable

[Josh 13,632]

2 minutes ago, dantm said:

The same exists with Sjostrom

She swims 23.6 ,she wins

or she swims 23.8,then shes beatable

Sjostrom is a much more consistent performer though, it’ll probably take a huge PB to beat her. 

[Epic Failure 365]

Yeah, Sjoestroem has 6 times which are quicker than any other active swimmer in the 50 free.

 

Cam, as great as he is, isn't even the fastest on paper if Dressel qualifies. It would be much more of a shock if Sarah lost than if Cam did.

 

That's true of many of the other strong Aussie gold chances on the men's side. As great as they are, they are often matched by a couple of other greats - the 100 free has Pan and Popovici, the 200m breast has Qin, the 400m free has Lukas Martens, the 4x100m free has the USA. And so on.

 

Obviously the Aussie men are absolutely still gold medal threats. But the women's side has more "nailed on" Aussie favourites for me.

[Vic Liu 1,701]

China Prediction

 

1. Diving - 7 golds 12 medals - usually losing 1 gold just not sure which one yet

2. Table Tennis - 5 golds 7 medals - facing many challenges on men's single but still unlikely to drop the gold

3. Weightlifting - 5 golds 6 medals - men's 73kg Shi Zhiyong is not the favorite while other weights should be safe

4. Swimming - 4 golds 10 medals - chances from men's 100/200 breast, 200 IM, 100 free, women's 100 fly, 100 breast, men and mixed medley relay for golds

5. Shooting - 4 golds 10 medals - many chances for pistols and rifles events and some of them will get golds

6. Artistic Gymnastics - 4 golds 8 medals - almost sure men's rings and PB + one of women's BB/UB + one of men's AA/team

7. Badminton - 3 golds 6 medals - bigger chances for mixed double and women's double + maybe one of men's single/women's single/men's double

8. Boxing - 1 gold 3 medals - some random women's weights or men's 80kg may get one gold

9. Sprint Canoeing - 1 gold 3 medals - big chance for WC2 get gold and medal chances for WC1 and MC2

10. Trampoline - 1 gold 3 medals - equal chances for men‘s and women's to get gold but also high chance to make error

11. Artistic Swimming - 1 gold 2 medals - big chance for both golds but also high probability to make some error on some random routine

12. Taekwondo - 1 gold 2 medals - bigger chances for women's 57kg and also some slim chances for other weights

13. Athletics - 5 medals - medal chances for women's shot put/discus/hammer throw/race walking, men's long jump/triple jump but none of these are favorites

14. Wrestling - 3 medals - some medal chances for all participating women's weights and men's freestyle 57/125, greco 60/130

15. Sport Climbing - 2 medals - medals chances for men's and women's speed sport climbing but very unpredictable 

16. BMX freestyle - 2 medals - big medal chances for women's BMX freestyle but not favorite to win the gold

17. Breaking - 1 medal - big medal chance for women also some probability to win the gold

18. Track Cycling - 1 medal - medal chance for women's team sprint

19. Fencing - 1 medal - some chance for women's team/individual epee and very slim chance for women's individual foil

20. Rowing - 1 medal - medal chance for W4x also some gold probability

21. Rhythmic Gymnastics -1 medal - medal chance for group AA

22. Sailing - 1 medal -  slim medal chances for men and women's windsurfing and kite but very unpredictable 

23. Basketball - 1 medal - medal chance for women's team

 

Some other slim medal chances: Women's golf, Women's tennis single/double, Judo Women's 78/78+, Women's volleyball, Women's skateboarding street

 

Total 37 golds 91 medals

[TeamGB 216]

I'll give a GB prediction a go, although I'm sure there will be some subconscious bias in there.

 

Artistic Swimming - 1 medal - Kate Shortman and Izzy Thorpe have really impressed me this year, and I think they could win a medal in the duet. Obviously artistic swimming isn't really my specialist subject, and it's difficult to compare due to the changing scoring systems, but I think they could earn bronze or maybe even silver.

Diving - 1 gold, 5 medals - I think GB can medal in all 4 of the synchros (W 3m most unlikely), and there are a few individual medal chances. We always manage to sneak a gold and I'm hopeful, but not confident, it could happen again.

Swimming - 3 Gold, 9 Medals - This is an event will plenty of medal chances but few nailed on golds. I think both mens Freestyle relays can win and I think another Gold can come from. Men's 100m Breast,50m Free, 200m Free and 200m IM. Other medal chances include Men's Medley, 100m Back, 400m IM, Women's 400m IM and 4x200m Free.

Archery - 1 medal - The women's recurve team have been unlucky so far in terms of qualification, but I think they are up there for a medal if both Bryony or Penny are on form.

Athletics - 2 Golds, 10 medals - This sport is in a similar situation to swimming, where we could potentially medal in all track events from 100m - 1500m for both genders, as well as all 5 relays, but similarly come away with a Tokyo sized haul. The contending field events include high jump, pole vault and heptathlon.

Boxing - 2 Golds, 4 medals - Again, not really my expertise but I think we may perform slightly worse than Tokyo.

Canoe Slalom - 3 Golds, 5 medals - The squad is extremely strong but things can very quickly go wrong in this sport. After missing Tokyo I think Joe Clarke will have the fire in his belly to get 2 golds in Kayak, and I think Kimberly can win the extreme event.

BMX freestyle - 2 medals - I think the battle for Gold in the mens event will be between Reilly and Martin. Worthington has not really impressed me in this Olympic cycle, but she may pull something Tokyo-esque out of the bag.

BMX racing - 1 Gold, 2 medals -  doing the test event double does give my confidence and I think the team will replicate the Tokyo results.

Mountain Biking - 1 Gold, 2 medals - Pidcock has to be up there in the Men's event and I think Evie Richards can translate her short track form into a medal.

Road Cycling - 1 medal - Josh Tarling in the time trial, and potentially even more in an unpredictable road race.

Track Cycling - 5 Golds, 6 medals - The growth of the women's sprint squad had been offset by the decline of the men's but I think we will still see more success than Tokyo.

Equestrian - 3 golds, 6 medals - Not really my expertise but I think 3 golds is possible. 

Field Hockey - 2 medals - Both teams should be up there, but I give stronger chances to the men.

Gymnastics - 3 golds, 5 medals - The men's team has grown but the women's is in tatters. I predict GB golds in Men's PH, Vault and Women's Trampoline

Judo - 1 medal - Chelsie Giles should medal, but Lucy Renshall is just too inconsistent to be a medal contender.

Modern Pentathlon - 1 Gold, 2 medals - Joe can defend his title and Bryson should be in the conversation for the women's

Rowing - 6 golds, 7 medals - Reborn after the disaster of Tokyo, British rowing have strong chances to retain all 2023 world titles and add the mens Pair.

Sailing - 3 Golds, 5 Medals - Again very difficult to predict but having qualified all 10 boats again, I think we can match Tokyo

Shooting - 2 golds, 4 medals - It all really depends on wether Llewellyn qualifies, but I think we are contenders in all 5 shotgun events, and 2 women's rifle events.

Skateboarding - 1 Gold, 1 Medal - Sky focusing just on one sport should be enough to win olympic gold.

Sport Climbing - 1 Medal - Toby Roberts is definitely a gold contender in the Combined.

Taekwondo - 2 Gold, 4 medals - All 4 athletes should contend for gold and I would hope at least 2 of them get there.

Triathlon - 2 Gold , 3 medals - The women's team is insanely strong, and I think Yee can go one step further than Tokyo. The mixed relay worries me as we don't have a strong 2nd male athlete.

Weightlifting - 1 medal -  Emily Campbell is up there for 2nd behind the Chinese athlete.

 

Just counted them up and that makes 40 golds and 90 medals, so maybe my subconscious bias was pretty strong.

 

Nonetheless, I would expect an improvement on Tokyo to 30ish golds and 70 medals.

 

 

[Josh 13,632]

5 hours ago, Vic Liu said:

13. Athletics - 5 medals - medal chances for women's shot put/discus/hammer throw/race walking, men's long jump/triple jump but none of these are favorites

Men’s triple jump and women’s hammer throw are outside medal chances IMO. Other than that I completely agree 

[LDOG 2,489]

7 hours ago, TeamGB said:

I'll give a GB prediction a go, although I'm sure there will be some subconscious bias in there.

 

Artistic Swimming - 1 medal - Kate Shortman and Izzy Thorpe have really impressed me this year, and I think they could win a medal in the duet. Obviously artistic swimming isn't really my specialist subject, and it's difficult to compare due to the changing scoring systems, but I think they could earn bronze or maybe even silver.

Diving - 1 gold, 5 medals - I think GB can medal in all 4 of the synchros (W 3m most unlikely), and there are a few individual medal chances. We always manage to sneak a gold and I'm hopeful, but not confident, it could happen again.

Swimming - 3 Gold, 9 Medals - This is an event will plenty of medal chances but few nailed on golds. I think both mens Freestyle relays can win and I think another Gold can come from. Men's 100m Breast,50m Free, 200m Free and 200m IM. Other medal chances include Men's Medley, 100m Back, 400m IM, Women's 400m IM and 4x200m Free.

Archery - 1 medal - The women's recurve team have been unlucky so far in terms of qualification, but I think they are up there for a medal if both Bryony or Penny are on form.

Athletics - 2 Golds, 10 medals - This sport is in a similar situation to swimming, where we could potentially medal in all track events from 100m - 1500m for both genders, as well as all 5 relays, but similarly come away with a Tokyo sized haul. The contending field events include high jump, pole vault and heptathlon.

Boxing - 2 Golds, 4 medals - Again, not really my expertise but I think we may perform slightly worse than Tokyo.

Canoe Slalom - 3 Golds, 5 medals - The squad is extremely strong but things can very quickly go wrong in this sport. After missing Tokyo I think Joe Clarke will have the fire in his belly to get 2 golds in Kayak, and I think Kimberly can win the extreme event.

BMX freestyle - 2 medals - I think the battle for Gold in the mens event will be between Reilly and Martin. Worthington has not really impressed me in this Olympic cycle, but she may pull something Tokyo-esque out of the bag.

BMX racing - 1 Gold, 2 medals -  doing the test event double does give my confidence and I think the team will replicate the Tokyo results.

Mountain Biking - 1 Gold, 2 medals - Pidcock has to be up there in the Men's event and I think Evie Richards can translate her short track form into a medal.

Road Cycling - 1 medal - Josh Tarling in the time trial, and potentially even more in an unpredictable road race.

Track Cycling - 5 Golds, 6 medals - The growth of the women's sprint squad had been offset by the decline of the men's but I think we will still see more success than Tokyo.

Equestrian - 3 golds, 6 medals - Not really my expertise but I think 3 golds is possible. 

Field Hockey - 2 medals - Both teams should be up there, but I give stronger chances to the men.

Gymnastics - 3 golds, 5 medals - The men's team has grown but the women's is in tatters. I predict GB golds in Men's PH, Vault and Women's Trampoline

Judo - 1 medal - Chelsie Giles should medal, but Lucy Renshall is just too inconsistent to be a medal contender.

Modern Pentathlon - 1 Gold, 2 medals - Joe can defend his title and Bryson should be in the conversation for the women's

Rowing - 6 golds, 7 medals - Reborn after the disaster of Tokyo, British rowing have strong chances to retain all 2023 world titles and add the mens Pair.

Sailing - 3 Golds, 5 Medals - Again very difficult to predict but having qualified all 10 boats again, I think we can match Tokyo

Shooting - 2 golds, 4 medals - It all really depends on wether Llewellyn qualifies, but I think we are contenders in all 5 shotgun events, and 2 women's rifle events.

Skateboarding - 1 Gold, 1 Medal - Sky focusing just on one sport should be enough to win olympic gold.

Sport Climbing - 1 Medal - Toby Roberts is definitely a gold contender in the Combined.

Taekwondo - 2 Gold, 4 medals - All 4 athletes should contend for gold and I would hope at least 2 of them get there.

Triathlon - 2 Gold , 3 medals - The women's team is insanely strong, and I think Yee can go one step further than Tokyo. The mixed relay worries me as we don't have a strong 2nd male athlete.

Weightlifting - 1 medal -  Emily Campbell is up there for 2nd behind the Chinese athlete.

 

Just counted them up and that makes 40 golds and 90 medals, so maybe my subconscious bias was pretty strong.

 

Nonetheless, I would expect an improvement on Tokyo to 30ish golds and 70 medals.

 

 

This is incredibly optimistic. Like, basically everyone performing to their best 

[TeamGB 216]

4 minutes ago, LDOG said:

This is incredibly optimistic. Like, basically everyone performing to their best 

I tried hard not be be but I guess its difficult not to, just out of interest, where would you say I’m being too hopeful?