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Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions


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35 minutes ago, Sindo said:

Comparing to our Latest World Championships Medal Count, France has 13 more gold medals, which could be explainable with the host country advantage. But GBR has 25 gold medals in our table and only 17 in Gracenote table, that's a huge gap :yikes:

The :NED prediction is surprisingly close, with only 1 more gold and 1 less bronze in the Gracenote table. 12 gold medals is our best result ever, so if we get 15 or 16 I would be very surprised! A lot will depend on whether the rowing squad is still as dominant as they were at the 2023 World Championship. Five golds in rowing would be an incredible result to repeat.

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2 hours ago, Sindo said:

Comparing to our Latest World Championships Medal Count, France has 13 more gold medals, which could be explainable with the host country advantage. But GBR has 25 gold medals in our table and only 17 in Gracenote table, that's a huge gap :yikes:

Gracenote has always underestimated GBR medals since 2012

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26 minutes ago, TeamGB said:

@Rafa Maciel Do you know where to find the specific medal breakdown?

I don't think they publish the breakdown - or at least not for free :d The only way I've been able to find information about specific predictions is by trawling through various media outlets. Unfortunately, a lot of them are just quoting the headline numbers without going into specifics. 

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2 hours ago, Dragon said:

Gracenote has always underestimated GBR medals since 2012

You'd think by now they'd have worked out the GBR 'peaking' strategy...

 

From my own viewpoint, I think GBR are going to have a lot of  'on the edge'rs; it's hard to predict how well some will do in the white heat, or if injury nails a few. Seem to be an unusual number of 'lone stars' - Gary Roberts, Sky Brown, Penny Healy, who while genuine hopes have no back up in their sport if it doesn't hapen. If I were to guess, I can see Boxing being this years Rowing (the sport with an inquiry after the games), I see a Rowing return to strength, and perhaps a Canoe Slalom hidden gem if all the pieces fall.

 

Not sure what the record is for medals in different sports for Ireland at one games, but I feel very hopeful whatever it is will be beaten - Gymnastics, boxing, rowing, sailing, swimming, golf and athletics all have genuines with at least punchers chances in rugby sevens and Equestrian and outside shots in Taekwondo, and track cycling

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29 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

Seem to be an unusual number of 'lone stars' - Gary Roberts, Sky Brown, Penny Healy, who while genuine hopes have no back up in their sport if it doesn't hapen. 

For the life of me I can't think who Gary Roberts is and it is going to bug me all night.  

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7 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

:IOC Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - January 2024 :IOC

 

 

At the 6-month countdown to Paris, Gracenote have released their updated virtual medal table:

 

NOC Gold Silver Bronze Total Change Since Last Release
:USA 37 46 46 129 Up 3 medals overall - 2 additional silver and 1 additional bronze
:CHN 35 28 22 85 Up 7 medals in overall - 3 additional silver and 4 additional bronze. 
:FRA 26 16 11 53 Down 1 medal overall - 1 gold downgraded to silver and 1 bronze lost.
:GBR 17 22 25 64 Down 2 silver medals offset by 1 additional bronze for overall drop of 1 medal in total. 
:JPN 17 15 24 56 Down 2 medals in total - 1 additional silver medal gained offset by drop of 3 bronze medals. 
:NED 16 9 10 35 Down 2 medals in total - dropping 1 silver and 1 bronze medal.
:AUS 15 17 16 48 Down 2 medals in total - dropping 2 bronze medals.
:ITA 13 12 22 47 Down 1 medal in total - 2 silver medals dropped offset by an additional bronze medal. 
:GER 10 14 15 39 Up 2 medals overall - 1 additional silver and 1 additional bronze.
:KOR 7 6 10 23 Moves into top ten (replaces Canada) 

 

I woud love to see South Korea back into top-10 again. But I think it will be a tough competition with Canada, Brazil and Spain.

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