Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Qualification Quota Simulation

[Topicmaster1010 6,549]

3 hours ago, Dnl said:

Absolutely Amazing do you plan on doing the simulation later this year?( or later on during this qualification period ) with more competition down the road I guess the results could shape differently and it could be really interesting to see how close to the actual results you can get, overall wow

Thank you!

 

I can't make any promises but I'll try to do another simulation at the end of 2023 since that's when most of the summer sports have their off-season. I don't think I'll do one anytime before that though. This took a looooooooooong time to finish.

[Topicmaster1010 6,549]

3 hours ago, Agger said:

 

Impressive job though I do have a few doubts. 

Who qualifies in archery?
What sailing events do you have us qualifying for? 49er, 49erFX, Nacra17, Ilca6, women's IQ foil and?

Swimming feels pretty low as well though we do have some problems there. But I guess that's a question of how last year was.

Thanks

 

Currently have Kirstine Andersen qualifying in the women's event. She was ranked 48th in the world when I retrieved the data at the end of last year.

 

Sailing events are M iQFOiL, M 49er, W iQFOiL, W ILCA 6, W 49erFX, and Mixed Nacra 17.

 

For swimming, Helena Bach was the only danish swimmer to swim an olympic qualifying time last year and Denmark didn't have any of the 16 fastest times for any of the relays which is why I only have 2 swimmers for Denmark. I personally would expect that number to go up.

[Topicmaster1010 6,549]

1 hour ago, CCB said:

Here are the predictions for the Dutch team  

 

Archery: 1 woman and 1 man (no team of 3, Steve Wijler is the only one with a decent level) 2

 

Athletics: hopefully we can qualify all the relays 35

 

Artistic swimming: duet 2

 

Badminton: women’s double, men’s double and a mixed double 4

 

Basketball: no universality qualification tournament, less chance for our men’s team 0

 

Beach volleyball: I think 2 men couples and 1 women couple 6

 

Boxing: no Olympic sport anymore, otherwise no Dutch competitors 0

 

Breaking: no idea, I thought it was a joke when Breaking was announced as an Olympic sport 0

 

Canoeing slalom: at the women’s side we have some good competitors 2

 

Canoeing sprint: no way 0

 

Cycling BMX : 3 women and 1 or 2 men 4

 

Cycling Mountainbike: 1 men (or will Mathieu van der Poel return?) and 2 woman 3

 

Cycling Road: full teams for men and women 8

 

Cycling Track: women pursuit, madison, omnium and teamsprint (7), men Madison, omnium and teamsprint (5) 12

 

Diving: at the women’s side a synchron 3 meter and 1 individual 3

 

Equestrian: jumping and dressage teams qualified, one eventing rider 7

 

Fencing:  no chance at all 0

 

Field hockey: both men and women with a full team 32

 

Football: no chance for women, a slim chance for men, but don’t think so 0

 

Golf: maybe 1 woman 1

 

Gymnastics artistic: only two individual gymnasts, too much rumours after all the scandals in Dutch gymnastics 2

 

Gymnastics rhytmic: no chance at all 0

 

Trampolino: no chance at all 0

 

Handball: men’s team becoming better and better, but no realistic chance; woman still have a chance, but are not as good as they were the last five years, so my prediction is 0

 

Judo: both at the men’s and women’s side 4 judoka’s 8

 

Modern pentathlon:  0

 

Rowing: difficult to say because almost all the crews are going to change, probably 19 men and 21 women 40

 

Rugby sevens: no chance 0

 

Sailing: I predict 6 boats, total sailers 8

 

Shooting: unfortunately no good shooters in The Netherlands 0

 

Skateboarding: normally all 3 woman 3

 

Sport climbing: no climbers at all 0

 

Surfing: 0

 

Swimming: somewhere around 15 men and woman in total 15

 

Table tennis: only woman who could make it is pregnant now, not sure if she’ll come back 0

 

Taekwondo: 0

 

Tennis: 2 men for the singles, 2 extra for doubles and maybe 1 woman for mixed doubles 5

 

Triathlon: 3

 

Volleyball: my heart is bleeding, no volleyballteams, especially after the bad results at the WCh on home soil and the fact that the woman cannot find a good coach 12

 

Water polo: hopefully the women can make it 12

 

Weightlifting: only 1 man, Enzo Kuworge 1

 

Wrestling: no wrestlers 0

 

 

The total should be around 230 athletes. I.m.o. the prediction of Topicmaster1010 (286) is a little too ambitious for our small country. But a lot of respect for his work ... wow!

 

1 hour ago, Jinzha said:

Good predictions, probably a bit more realistic than the 286 prediction yeah.

 

I wonder if we're even going to qualify 1 man in mountainbiking, with Vaders injury and Van der Poel being his unpredictable self.

 

For triathlon I feel like there's quite a lot of spots for the mixed relay, so I think 4 could be possible. Although if Rachel Klamer retires before Paris, without her it will be difficult to field a good relay.

Thanks!

 

Yeah, I personally think the final number will be much lower than 286. I believe the Netherlands was one of the countries that benefitted the most from Russia and Belarus being excluded from the simulation and as I mentioned, I didn't take the Dutch Federation's own qualification procedures into account so I would expect them to reject some quotas like the canoe sprint or golf quotas.

[Topicmaster1010 6,549]

1 hour ago, rybak said:

No idea how we would qualify in diving but very good job anyway 

 

Btw. This isn't the most liked post ever on forum? @Sindo

Thank you!

 

I used the world championship results to do my diving simulation and Robert Lukaszewicz finished 24th in the 10m event. He may or may not qualify.

 

Also I remember heywoodu's post during the 2022 Olympics about Bruna Moura had over 30 reactions and rightfully so.

[Makedonas 2,262]

I'm curious, who did you have for Greece in sailing, athletics, and swimming? Thank you in advance.

[hoversaBR 860]

8 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

 Brazil: 292 (-18)

(Archery - 4, Athletics - 45, Badminton - 2, Boxing - 4, Slalom Canoe - 2, Sprint Canoe - 3, BMX - 2, Mountain Biking - 3, Road Cycling - 1, Diving - 5, Equestrian - 9, Fencing - 2, Football - 36, Artistic Gymnastics - 10, Rhythmic Gymnastics - 6, Trampoline - 1, Handball - 14, Judo - 14, Modern Pentathlon - 3, Rugby Sevens - 12, Sailing - 10, Shooting - 4, Skateboarding - 12, Surfing - 5, Swimming - 22, Table Tennis - 5, Taekwondo - 7, Tennis - 4, Triathlon - 4, Indoor Volleyball - 24, Beach Volleyball - 8, Weightlifting - 2, Wrestling - 7)

Quite surprised by the predictions for Modern Pentathlon and Road Cycling, I didn't even know we had a chance of quota in these sports. 

 

Wrestling with 7 athletes and Boxing with 4? Eventually it will probably be the other way around.

 

Overall excellent prediction for Brazil, I easily see at least 90% of that happening. 

[Sindo 1,827]

8 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

@Sindo could you put a link to this Topicmaster1010 post on the front page somehow???

I have given the  post a dedicated thread

 

 

1 hour ago, rybak said:

Btw. This isn't the most liked post ever on forum? @Sindo

3rd one most liked so far. You can see the list here: https://totallympics.com/leaderboard/?time=oldest

[rafalgorka 1,820]

@Topicmaster1010 we will be waiting for version 2.0 in December with a great interest.

 

But - for the time being - could you please share with us some info from time to time?

Like, certain NOCs - which events they will qualify???

 

I know you have spent so much time on it already and don't want you to spend much time now again.

So maybe you could start with some smaller NOCs, it won't take much time.

 

Like e.g.

 

[Topicmaster1010 6,549]

On 1/15/2023 at 10:10 PM, rafalgorka said:

@Topicmaster1010 we will be waiting for version 2.0 in December with a great interest.

 

But - for the time being - could you please share with us some info from time to time?

Like, certain NOCs - which events they will qualify???

 

I know you have spent so much time on it already and don't want you to spend much time now again.

So maybe you could start with some smaller NOCs, it won't take much time.

 

Like e.g.

 

 

I'll see what I can do. Maybe I'll do a breakdown of a few countries that are represented a lot on this forum or I can do a breakdown by sport.

 

For the countries you mentioned,

 

Belize has universality quotas in athletics and the men's K-1 1000m in canoe sprint.

 

Tanzania has two swimming universality quotas, 3 quotas in men's marathon, 1 quota in the women's marathon and a judo universality quota in the men's -66kg.

 

Oman has universality quotas in the 3 universality quotas in athletics, swimming and shooting (Women's 10m air pistol).

 

I was not able to assign universality quotas in athletics or swimming to specific events. I just made sure that the NOC had an athlete who had a result in an eligible event. Otherwise it probably would have taken me an extra 12 hours to finish .

 

On 1/15/2023 at 8:11 AM, Benolympique said:

thank you for your meticulous work!!

 

could you give the details of the predictions by team sports? thank you very much

 

However, in the meantime, I can definitely list the quotas for the team sports and how they qualified in my simulation

 

Men's Basketball: 

Host:  

2023 FIBA World Cup (Americas):   

2023 FIBA World Cup (Europe):   

2023 FIBA World Cup (Africa):

2023 FIBA World Cup (Asia):

2023 FIBA World Cup (Oceania):

Olympic Qualifying Tournaments:     

 

Women's Basketball

Host:  

2022 FIBA World Cup:

Olympic Qualifying Tournaments:           

 

Men's 3x3 Basketball

Ranking List:   

Universality-driven OQT 1:

Universality-driven OQT 2:

Olympic Qualifying Tournament:   

 

Women's 3x3 Basketball

Ranking List:    

Universality-driven OQT 1:

Universality-driven OQT 2:

Olympic Qualifying Tournament:    

 

Men's Field Hockey:

Host:  

2023 African Hockey Road to Paris:  

2023 Pan American Games:  

2022 Asian Games:  

2023 EuroHockey Championship:  

2023 Oceania Cup:  

Olympic Qualifying Tournaments:       

 

Women's Field Hockey:

Host:  

2023 African Hockey Road to Paris:  

2023 Pan American Games:  

2022 Asian Games:  

2023 EuroHockey Championship:

2023 Oceania Cup:  

Olympic Qualifying Tournaments:       

 

Men's Football:

Host:  

AFC:    

CAF:   

CONCACAF:   

CONMEBOL:  

OFC: 

UEFA:   

AFC/CAF Playoff: 

 

Women's Football:

Host: 

AFC:  

CAF:  

CONCACAF:  

CONMEBOL:  

OFC: 

UEFA:  

 

Men's Handball:

Host: 

2023 IHF World Championship: 

Asia Qualification: 

Africa Qualification: 

Europe Qualification: 

Americas Qualification: 

Qualification Tournaments:      

 

Women's Handball:

Host: 

2023 IHF World Championship: 

Asia Qualification: 

Africa Qualification: 

Europe Qualification: 

Americas Qualification: 

Qualification Tournaments:      

 

Men's Rugby Sevens:

Host: 

2022/23 Rugby Sevens World Series:    

African Tournament: 

Asian Tournament: 

European Tournament: 

North American Tournament: 

Oceanian Tournament: 

South American Tournament: 

Final Repechage Tournament: 

 

Women's Rugby Sevens:

Host: 

2022/23 Rugby Sevens World Series:     

African Tournament: 

Asian Tournament: 

European Tournament: 

North American Tournament: 

Oceanian Tournament (Reallocated): None

South American Tournament: 

Final Repechage Tournament:  

 

Men's Volleyball:

Host: 

Qualification Tournaments:      

World Rankings:     

 

 

Women's Volleyball:

Host: 

Qualification Tournaments:       

World Rankings:     

 

Men's Water Polo:

Host: 

2023 FINA World Championships:  

Americas Qualification: 

Africa Qualification: 

Asia Qualification: 

Europe Qualification: 

Oceania Qualification: 

Final Qualification:    

 

Women's Water Polo:

Host: 

2023 FINA World Championships:  

Americas Qualification: 

Africa Qualification: 

Asia Qualification: 

Europe Qualification: 

Oceania Qualification: 

Final Qualification:  

 

All the sports were simulated using world rankings except for handball and water polo which I couldn't find any so I used the World Championships. The one exception I made is that China got the asian women's water polo quota despite not being at World Championships because I think they're still the best Asian team.

 

Handball is a big question mark because they were simulated using 2021 championships so there's a chance there'll be a lot of changes in the next simulation.

 

Men's football is also a big question mark because I used the senior men's rankings to do the simulation and it probably isn't accurate for the junior teams. For example, Belgium probably won't end up qualifying.

 

And then of course, there's the question of what South Africa will do with some of their quotas. For example, will they still accept their water polo quotas this time?

Edited January 17, 2023 by Topicmaster1010

[LDOG 2,477]

2 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

 

I'll see what I can do. Maybe I'll do a breakdown of a few countries that are represented a lot on this forum or I can do a breakdown by sport.

 

For the countries you mentioned,

 

Belize has universality quotas in athletics and the men's K-1 1000m in canoe sprint.

 

Tanzania has two swimming universality quotas, 3 quotas in men's marathon, 1 quota in the women's marathon and a judo universality quota in the men's -66kg.

 

Oman has universality quotas in the 3 universality quotas in athletics, swimming and shooting (Women's 10m air pistol).

 

I was not able to assign universality quotas in athletics or swimming to specific events. I just made sure that the NOC had an athlete who had a result in an eligible event. Otherwise it probably would have taken me an extra 12 hours to finish .

 

 

However, in the meantime, I can definitely list the quotas for the team sports and how they qualified in my simulation

 

Men's Basketball: 

Host:  

2023 FIBA World Cup (Americas):   

2023 FIBA World Cup (Europe):   

2023 FIBA World Cup (Africa):

2023 FIBA World Cup (Asia):

2023 FIBA World Cup (Oceania):

Olympic Qualifying Tournaments:     

 

Women's Basketball

Host:  

2022 FIBA World Cup:

Olympic Qualifying Tournaments:           

 

Men's 3x3 Basketball

Ranking List:   

Universality-driven OQT 1:

Universality-driven OQT 2:

Olympic Qualifying Tournament:   

 

Women's 3x3 Basketball

Ranking List:    

Universality-driven OQT 1:

Universality-driven OQT 2:

Olympic Qualifying Tournament:    

 

Men's Field Hockey:

Host:  

2023 African Hockey Road to Paris:  

2023 Pan American Games:  

2022 Asian Games:  

2023 EuroHockey Championship:  

2023 Oceania Cup:  

Olympic Qualifying Tournaments:       

 

Women's Field Hockey:

Host:  

2023 African Hockey Road to Paris:  

2023 Pan American Games:  

2022 Asian Games:  

2023 EuroHockey Championship:

2023 Oceania Cup:  

Olympic Qualifying Tournaments:       

 

Men's Football:

Host:  

AFC:    

CAF:   

CONCACAF:   

CONMEBOL:  

OFC: 

UEFA:   

AFC/CAF Playoff: 

 

Women's Football:

Host: 

AFC:  

CAF:  

CONCACAF:  

CONMEBOL:  

OFC: 

UEFA:  

 

Men's Handball:

Host: 

2023 IHF World Championship: 

Asia Qualification: 

Africa Qualification: 

Europe Qualification: 

Americas Qualification: 

Qualification Tournaments:      

 

Women's Handball:

Host: 

2023 IHF World Championship: 

Asia Qualification: 

Africa Qualification: 

Europe Qualification: 

Americas Qualification: 

Qualification Tournaments:      

 

Men's Rugby Sevens:

Host: 

2022/23 Rugby Sevens World Series:    

African Tournament: 

Asian Tournament: 

European Tournament: 

North American Tournament: 

Oceanian Tournament: 

South American Tournament: 

Final Repechage Tournament: 

 

Women's Rugby Sevens:

Host: 

2022/23 Rugby Sevens World Series:     

African Tournament: 

Asian Tournament: 

European Tournament: 

North American Tournament: 

Oceanian Tournament (Reallocated): None

South American Tournament: 

Final Repechage Tournament:  

 

Men's Volleyball:

Host: 

Qualification Tournaments:      

World Rankings:     

 

 

Women's Volleyball:

Host: 

Qualification Tournaments:       

World Rankings:     

 

Men's Water Polo:

Host: 

2023 FINA World Championships:  

Americas Qualification: 

Africa Qualification: 

Asia Qualification: 

Europe Qualification: 

Oceania Qualification: 

Final Qualification:    

 

Women's Water Polo:

Host: 

2023 FINA World Championships:  

Americas Qualification: 

Africa Qualification: 

Asia Qualification: 

Europe Qualification: 

Oceania Qualification: 

Final Qualification:  

 

All the sports were simulated using world rankings except for handball and water polo which I couldn't find any so I used the World Championships. The one exception I made is that China got the asian women's water polo quota despite not being at World Championships because I think they're still the best Asian team.

 

Handball is a big question mark because they were simulated using 2021 championships so there's a chance there'll be a lot of changes in the next simulation.

 

Men's football is also a big question mark because I used the senior men's rankings to do the simulation and it probably isn't accurate for the junior teams. For example, Belgium probably won't end up qualifying.

 

And then of course, there's the question of what South Africa will do with some of their quotas. For example, will they still accept their water polo quotas this time?

 can't qualify in men's football.