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Swimming at the Aquatics WA World Championships 2023


Totallympics
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26 minutes ago, Vektor said:

Those 13 spots will be awarded based on both Doha and Fukuoka, it will go to the 13 fastest relays of these two WCh. I am not entire sure which WCh will have the faster times in the relay events. Hungary for example will have to focus on Doha, hoping that Milák will return by then, we are fucked without him. 

yes, but it's the fastest time between the 2 competitions

 

it's like in athletics, you only need a strong performance and you're safe

 

sure, if you miss the 1st event, then you have the shoulders against the wall in the 2nd one, but nothing is lost

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5 hours ago, Vektor said:

Apparently the Hungarian team is expecting at least one medal in the pool, maybe up to four medals. 

 

Personally I am expecting 0 medals for Hungary, we are hitting rock bottom in Japan. 

4 medals seems like an insane expectation, 1 might be possible. More interesting question would be: How many top 8 finishes do you expect (individual olympic events only)?

 

Maybe Kapas (200 fly)

Maybe Mihalyvari-Farkas (400 IM + maybe 1500 free)

Maybe Szabo (50 free)

Maybe Nemeth (100 free)

Kos (200 back + maybe 200 IM)

Maybe Kovacs (200 back)

Maybe Hollo (400 IM)

Maybe Marton (200 fly)

 

I wouldn't be shocked if you wouldn't have a single top 8 finish on the women's side. I think 6 top 8 finishes would already be a good result for Hungary based on the entry lists. The US and Australia are probably the only nations that could lose athletes like Milak, Cseh and Hosszu and still have multiple medal contenders. Of course it doesn't help that many of your promising talents haven't progressed as expected (Kesely, Szilagyi, Mihalyvari-Farkas, Zombori).

Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
 

 

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3 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

4 medals seems like an insane expectation, 1 might be possible. More interesting question would be: How many top 8 finishes do you expect (individual olympic events only)?

 

Maybe Kapas (200 fly)

Maybe Mihalyvari-Farkas (400 IM + maybe 1500 free)

Maybe Szabo (50 free)

Maybe Nemeth (100 free)

Kos (200 back + maybe 200 IM)

Maybe Kovacs (200 back)

Maybe Hollo (400 IM)

Maybe Marton (200 fly)

 

I wouldn't be shocked if you wouldn't have a single top 8 finish on the women's side. I think 6 top 8 finishes would already be a good result for Hungary based on the entry lists. The US and Australia are probably the only nations that could lose athletes like Milak, Cseh and Hosszu and still have multiple medal contenders. Of course it doesn't help that many of your promising talents haven't progressed as expected (Kesely, Szilagyi, Mihalyvari-Farkas, Zombori).

Well, the Hungarian national coach simply said that "we got unlucky with 4th places recently, we are capable of winning multiple medals without Milák". And yeah, good luck with that.

 

I am thinking 2-2 appearances in the final Top8 from Kós (200 back, 200 IM) and Szabó (50 free, 50 fly), plus 1 more random Top8 placement from any of those other options (probably Márton or Késely). 

 

We got 11 Top8 placements last year at the Worlds if I exclude the results from those who are missing this year. I expect worse, the 2022 Worlds was at home.

 

Top8 placements at the 2022 Worlds without Milák, Hosszú, Kenderesi, etc

 

Szabó (4th, M 50 free)

Szabó (6th, M 50 fly)

Németh (6th, M 100 free)

Telegdy (6th, M 200 back)

Kovács (8th, M 200 back)

Kós (6th, M 200 IM)

Holló (8th, M 400 IM)

Burián (8th, W 200 back)

Kapás (7th, W 200 fly)

Hungary (8th, W 4x100 free)

Hungary (5th, W 4x200 free)

 

 

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3 hours ago, dullard said:

Did Kesely and Zombori just plateau or did something happen to derail their careers?

Késely might be the biggest Hungarian disappointment in swimming since the Liliána Szilágyi debacle. COVID has been the explanation, that she lost her career momentum because of the COVID break. 

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52 minutes ago, Vektor said:

Késely might be the biggest Hungarian disappointment in swimming since the Liliána Szilágyi debacle. COVID has been the explanation, that she lost her career momentum because of the COVID break. 

That might be the explanation, although she already was going backwards in the 200 free way before the pandemic. Maybe she focused too much on distance and lost her speed. It looks as if she might have "rediscovered" some of her speed recently, so there might very well still be hope for her. Her progression in the 200/400/800/1500 free:

 

200 free:

2016: 1:57.96

2017: 1:57.10

2018: 1:57.88

2019: 1:58.14

---

2020: 2:00.13

2021: 2:00.15

2022: 1:58.78

 

400 free:

2016: 4:08.10

2017: 4:05.75

2018: 4:03.57

2019: 4:01.31

---

2020: 4:09.05

2021: 4:05.35

2022: 4:07.74

 

800 free:

2016: 8:34.37

2017: 8:30.62

2018: 8:22.01

2019: 8:24.25

---

2020: 8:37.45

2021: 8:26.20

2022: 8:35.74

 

1500 free:

2016: 16:45.15

2017: 16:11.25

2018: 16:03.22

2019: 15:54.48

---

2020: 16:34.43

2021: 15:59.80

2022: 16:22.89

 

I remember that we had a similar discussion some years ago about Mihalyvari-Farkas, where i asked whether she would keep progressing or end up like many (female) hungarian talents before her. Back then you were optimistic and didn't agree that (too) many hungarian talents fade out too quickly. Sadly it looks as if Mihalyvari-Farkas might be heading in the same direction, but maybe she will surprise us/me at worlds. Also not sure how optimistic we can/should be about the future of other talents like Veres, Fabian, Gyurinovics, Nyiradi, Molnar, Ugrai, Flück, Komoroczy, Hathazi, Abraham, Jackl and Padar? Hopefully att least Padar and Jackl will become world class. On the men's side Kovats, Magda and Betlehem look promising.

Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
 

 

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21 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

 

I remember that we had a similar discussion some years ago about Mihalyvari-Farkas, where i asked whether she would keep progressing or end up like many (female) hungarian talents before her. Back then you were optimistic and didn't agree that (too) many hungarian talents fade out too quickly. Sadly it looks as if Mihalyvari-Farkas might be heading in the same direction, but maybe she will surprise us/me at worlds. Also not sure how optimistic we can/should be about the future of other talents like Veres, Fabian, Gyurinovics, Nyiradi, Molnar, Ugrai, Flück, Komoroczy, Hathazi, Abraham, Jackl and Padar? Hopefully att least Padar and Jackl will become world class. On the men's side Kovats, Magda and Betlehem look promising.

I think we haven't really had a true top tier talent fade out. I mean, the swimmers you mentioned never appeared to be as promising as the likes of Milák, Hosszú, Gyurta. We might have a shitty talent management among the middle-tier swimmers, but I feel like Dávid Verrasztó is the only Hungarian swimmer who never reached his full potential in terms of Olympic medals. Gyurta, Hosszú and Milák were Olympic champion level talents and they all got their gold medals. Kapás and Kenderesi were Olympic medal level talents and they won their bronze medal. 

 

Right now we only got Kós who appear to be talented enough to be included among those names. If he won't win an Olympic medal in Paris or LA, I will be slightly disappointed. There's also Késely, who should have become the next Boglárka Kapás, that's an Olympic medal chance thrown out of the window, unless she turns her career around like Gyurta (post-Beijing) and Hosszú (post-London) did. I don't expect much from the rest (with maybe the exception of Padar? I guess we will see in the next few years if she can improve). 

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