How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2016?

[heywoodu 16,460]

Just now, T&Fwatch said:

If everything works perfectly (with all luck on German side) I see these German medalists in athletics:

- 4x100w

- 4x100m

- 100H Roleder

- 3000SC Krause

- LJw Moguenara

- HJw Jungfleisch 

- PVm Holzdeppe 

- SPm Storl

- SPw Schwanitz

- Discus m (2×) Harting

- Discus w Fischer 

- Javelin m Roehler

- Javelin w Hussong 

- Decathlon Abele

 

I think this would be absolutely best case scenario. 

 

Apart from the men's 4x100 I agree that all of them have a good medal chance (some more than others of course), but if that group combined wins 13-14 medals, that would be extremely perfect  

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 35 Minuten schrieb De_Gambassi:

Some of the projections are really over the top (even in their lower end)

 

Judo: 3-4

Cannoeing: 8 (including 2 in slalom)

...

 

And a few are really on the lower side

 

Athletics: 4-6

 

Maybe, it made sense in 2012, don't know, But in 2016, it doesn't appear to be the case.

I agree about athletics, but 3-4 medals are definitely possible in judo (Frey, Vargas-Koch and Trajdos all have a very good chance in my opinion) and 8 medals are realistic in caneoing (mens c1 1000m, mens k2 1000m, mens k4 1000m, womens k2 500m, womens k4 500m + 3 out of mens k2 200m, mens k1 1000m, mens c2 1000m, mens c1 (Tasiadis), mens c2 (Anton/Benzien) and womens k1 (Pfeifer).

I think we can definitely win more than 5 medals in equestrian (2 x individual eventing, team eventing, team dressage, 2 x individual dressage would already be 6 medals without jumping), more than 2 medals in table tennis (mens team, mens singles, womens team) and more than 3 medals in shooting. On the other hand we wont win 2 medals in volleyball, 2 medals in tennis, 2 medals in sailing, 2 medals in fencing, 1 medal in badminton or 1 medal in triathlon. 1-3 medals in boxing, 2 medals in football and 3-7 medals in swimming/diving are also a bit unrealistic.

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 33 Minuten schrieb T&Fwatch:

If everything works perfectly (with all luck on German side) I see these German medalists in athletics:

- 4x100w

- 4x100m

- 100H Roleder

- 3000SC Krause

- LJw Moguenara

- HJw Jungfleisch 

- PVm Holzdeppe 

- SPm Storl

- SPw Schwanitz

- Discus m (2×) Harting

- Discus w Fischer 

- Javelin m Roehler

- Javelin w Hussong 

- Decathlon Abele

 

I think this would be absolutely best case scenario. 

Ryzih (womens pole vault), Schäfer (womens heptathlon), Stahl (second medal in womens javelin throw), Heidler (womens hammer throw), Linke (mens 20km race walking), Onnen (mens high jump), Heß (mens triple jump) and Vetter (second medal in mens javelin throw) also have a chance for a medal in my opinion. Especially Schäfer, Stahl, Heidler, Heß and Vetter are among the 4-6 biggest favorites for a medal in my opinion.

 

German athletes are ranked top 3 in the following events:

Womens 4x100m relay

Womens long jump

Womens high jump

Womens shot put

Womens discus throw

Womens hammer throw

Womens javelin throw

2 x Mens discus throw

2 x mens javelin throw

Mens decathlon

 

I honestly would be disappointed with 8 medals. Not all of them will win a medal, but most of them should and 2 or 3 out of Storl/Holzdeppe/Roleder/Krause/Schäfer/Stahl should also win a medal. 

[De_Gambassi 1,369]

il y a 9 minutes, OlympicsFan a déclaré:

I agree about athletics, but 3-4 medals are definitely possible in judo (Frey, Vargas-Koch and Trajdos all have a very good chance in my opinion) and 8 medals are realistic in caneoing (mens c1 1000m, mens k2 1000m, mens k4 1000m, womens k2 500m, womens k4 500m + 3 out of mens k2 200m, mens k1 1000m, mens c2 1000m, mens c1 (Tasiadis), mens c2 (Anton/Benzien) and womens k1 (Pfeifer).

I think we can definitely win more than 5 medals in equestrian (2 x individual eventing, team eventing, team dressage, 2 x individual dressage would already be 6 medals without jumping), more than 2 medals in table tennis (mens team, mens singles, womens team) and more than 3 medals in shooting. On the other hand we wont win 2 medals in volleyball, 2 medals in tennis, 2 medals in sailing, 2 medals in fencing, 1 medal in badminton or 1 medal in triathlon. 1-3 medals in boxing, 2 medals in football and 3-7 medals in swimming/diving are also a bit unrealistic.

 

For judo and canoeing, to achieve the DOSB's goals you're looking at a 75+% sucessfull rate between your possible medalists. It's beyond overachieving (at least for judo), it's not going to happen.

 

For equestrian, I actually agree, I'm looking at a 5-7 medals range (Korridor ). A hint for anyone's playing the bet contest, the Netherlands are definitly not going to win more medals than Germany here. That's a sure bet 

[heywoodu 16,460]

6 minutes ago, De_Gambassi said:

 

 

 

For equestrian, I actually agree, I'm looking at a 5-7 medals range (Korridor ). A hint for anyone's playing the bet contest, the Netherlands are definitly not going to win more medals than Germany here. That's a sure bet 

I wish I could disagree, but yeah, though it is in theory of course possible, we'd need some kind of miracle to win more medals than Germany  

[dcro 10,211]

6 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

I wish I could disagree, but yeah, though it is in theory of course possible, we'd need some kind of miracle to win more medals than Germany  

 

Well, two medals in dressage and clean sweep in jumping are always possible.

[heywoodu 16,460]

1 minute ago, dcro said:

 

Well, two medals in dressage and clean sweep in jumping are always possible.

Add in some sort of miracle in the eventing and there you go, 6-7 medals, easy as pie 

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 27 Minuten schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

For judo and canoeing, to achieve the DOSB's goals you're looking at a 75+% sucessfull rate between your possible medalists. It's beyond overachieving (at least for judo), it's not going to happen.

 

For equestrian, I actually agree, I'm looking at a 5-7 medals range (Korridor ). A hint for anyone's playing the bet contest, the Netherlands are definitly not going to win more medals than Germany here. That's a sure bet 

Yeah, thats one of the easiest questions, but there are at least 3 safer bets i remeber (one in athletics, one in judo and one that is more general). We will see about judo, we always have been (surprisingly) good in judo at the olympics and i think this time it wont change.

[LowerSaxony 205]

vor 1 Stunde schrieb OlympicsFan:

Ryzih (womens pole vault), Schäfer (womens heptathlon), Stahl (second medal in womens javelin throw), Heidler (womens hammer throw), Linke (mens 20km race walking), Onnen (mens high jump), Heß (mens triple jump) and Vetter (second medal in mens javelin throw) also have a chance for a medal in my opinion. Especially Schäfer, Stahl, Heidler, Heß and Vetter are among the 4-6 biggest favorites for a medal in my opinion.

 

German athletes are ranked top 3 in the following events:

Womens 4x100m relay

Womens long jump

Womens high jump

Womens shot put

Womens discus throw

Womens hammer throw

Womens javelin throw

2 x Mens discus throw

2 x mens javelin throw

Mens decathlon

 

I honestly would be disappointed with 8 medals. Not all of them will win a medal, but most of them should and 2 or 3 out of Storl/Holzdeppe/Roleder/Krause/Schäfer/Stahl should also win a medal. 

 

Good explanation regarding the goal for medals of our NOC. It's indeed hard to understand (even for native speakers) and the result of the famous German bureaucracy

 

I must say, I would be VERY happy with 8 medals in athletics. This would be exactly the result from the 2015 WC. I think Germany improved the general level in many events, but I expect between 6 and 8 medals and a load of Top 8/Top 12 results.

 

Especially the shape of Holzdeppe is questionable after his long injury, he cleared 5.70m last week, but I think that Lavillenie, Barber, Kendricks and maybe the Polish guys will be too strong. Kind the same with Storl, however there is a realistic chance for silver.

 

A sure shot (harhar) is Schwanitz. Moreover, I expect one medal in each of the discus and javelin events. Heidler has a good chance if she keeps her nerves (especially in the qualifications) and I am really curious about the Decathlon and the Heptathlon where a Bronze is possible each.

 

Even if Krause and Roleder won a medal in the 2015 WC it will be really hard for them to repeat these successes. I expect placements between 4 and 6 what, however, would be really great in events where Europeans are not used to dominate.

 

I am sure that the Men's 4x100 won't make it to the podium (only if a bunch of the other relays suck at the exchances and even then they need luck). The Women's relay has better chances, however they have to repeat the unbelivable 41.62sec from last week for a Bronze.

 

Being a race walking fan for many years I would cheer and immediately start to get drunk if Linke or Pohle will really make it to the podium But I think there is maybe a 5% possibility, the Asians and the Mexicans should be too strong. Well, maybe their will be a surprise such as the Bronze by the Canadian race walker Thorne at last year's WC.

 

Hopefuls to watch are Heß (TripJump) and Jungfleisch (HighJump). With all their luck a medal is not impossible, even if they will further increase their competitiveness over the next 4 years. So maybe we'll have to wait till Tokyo

Edited August 4, 2016 by LowerSaxony

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 5 Stunden schrieb LowerSaxony:

 

Good explanation regarding the goal for medals of our NOC. It's indeed hard to understand (even for native speakers) and the result of the famous German bureaucracy

 

I must say, I would be VERY happy with 8 medals in athletics. This would be exactly the result from the 2015 WC. I think Germany improved the general level in many events, but I expect between 6 and 8 medals and a load of Top 8/Top 12 results.

 

Especially the shape of Holzdeppe is questionable after his long injury, he cleared 5.70m last week, but I think that Lavillenie, Barber, Kendricks and maybe the Polish guys will be too strong. Kind the same with Storl, however there is a realistic chance for silver.

 

A sure shot (harhar) is Schwanitz. Moreover, I expect one medal in each of the discus and javelin events. Heidler has a good chance if she keeps her nerves (especially in the qualifications) and I am really curious about the Decathlon and the Heptathlon where a Bronze is possible each.

 

Even if Krause and Roleder won a medal in the 2015 WC it will be really hard for them to repeat these successes. I expect placements between 4 and 6 what, however, would be really great in events where Europeans are not used to dominate.

 

I am sure that the Men's 4x100 won't make it to the podium (only if a bunch of the other relays suck at the exchances and even then they need luck). The Women's relay has better chances, however they have to repeat the unbelivable 41.62sec from last week for a Bronze.

 

Being a race walking fan for many years I would cheer and immediately start to get drunk if Linke or Pohle will really make it to the podium But I think there is maybe a 5% possibility, the Asians and the Mexicans should be too strong. Well, maybe their will be a surprise such as the Bronze by the Canadian race walker Thorne at last year's WC.

 

Hopefuls to watch are Heß (TripJump) and Jungfleisch (HighJump). With all their luck a medal is not impossible, even if they will further increase their competitiveness over the next 4 years. So maybe we'll have to wait till Tokyo

1) If i remeber correctly, then Holzdeppe jumped 5.70m in his first attempt and then ended the competition, so we actually dont know how high he could currently jump. In addition to that 5.70m is a very good result for his first competition after his comeback and he has still some time to improve + i think there was a pretty strong wind (looking at the sprints results), so the conditions probably werent very good for pole vaulting (Dilla and Scherbath both were far off their best results this season). In my opinion only Lavillenie and Kendricks have been somewhat consistent this year, Barber was up and down (much less dominant than last year) and Braz didnt show much/anything at big competition this year (Diamond League). All of them could jump 5.90m or higher in Rio, but i think its more likely that 5.85m will be enough for a medal.

2) I think Storl will fight for bronze against Walsh. In my opinion Kovacs will win gold with 22m or more and Crouser will win silver with 22m or more. Storl/Walsh should win bronze with about 21.80m.

3) Schwanitz could end up without a medal. Gong, Adamas and Carter are all able to score 20m or more. I think she will win bronze behind Adams and Gong in the end.

4) In mens discus throw i honestly expect gold for R. Harting, silver for Malachowski and bronze for Milanov. C. Harting could win bronze, but so far he has been pretty disappointing at major competitions. I would be shocked if R. Harting would end up without a medal.

5) In womens discus throw i dont know what to expect from Caballero, she could win gold again or miss a medal. I think she is the only one who could challenge Perkovic. Bronze should be between Fischer, Samuels and Perez.

6) In mens javelin throw anything can happen. Röhler should win a medal and on paper he is the favorite for gold, but Yego, Walcott, Sirmais or Ruuskanen could beat him on a good day. Vetter seems to be pretty inconsistent, but he could also win a medal. If Germany would win no medal in this event, then it would be pretty disappointing for me.

7) Womens javelin throw is very open, but i think the gold will sadly go to Khaladovich. Silver and bronze should be between Spotakova, Stahl, Hussong, Palameika and Viljoen.

8) Womens hammer throw is very weak this year, i think Heidler should win silver. She shouldnt be too nervous, considering that its her last big competition and she has already won an olympic medal + she cant win gold anyway.

9) Abele should be the favorite for bronze, i dont think that Freimuth or Kazmirek will fight for bronze. I dont know whether Abele will really be able to perform at his best level two times in one season, so i think its gonna be pretty much 50/50 between him and Mayer. In womens heptathlon the medal will very likely go to Ennis-Hill, Johnson-Thompson and Theisen-Eaton. If one of them messes up, then Schäfer/Vetter or the girl from Latvia should win bronze.

10) I agree about the mens relay. At least USA, Jamaica, GB, South Africa and Canada are clearly faster on paper and its very unlikely that 3 or more of them will underperform/lose the baton. Japan, France and China should be about as strong as Germany, so even making the final could be difficult. 

11) I dont think that it will take 41.6s to win bronze on the womens side. 42.0s should be enough and the german girls can definitely do that. GB is faster on paper and the Netherlands will be the other relay fighting for bronze. I would give the german relay about a 40% chance for bronze.

12) I think at least one out of Krause/Roleder will win gold and that the other one will also win a medal, they are both in a much better position than last year before the world championships. Womens 100m hurdles should be pretty open without Harrison and i doubt that the 2 african girls will be able to run about 9:00 in Rio, considering the conditions we will probably have.

13) I just hope that Linke will be able to perform at his best this time, then he should at least finish top 8, which would be a good result. I think gold and silver will go to Spain/China (assuming that Diniz will focus on 50km race walking), bronze should be between Canada, Japan and maybe Australia.

14) In my opinion Heß is the favorite for bronze, but only if Pichardo wont be able to get into his best shape, otherwise the medals will be out of reach for Heß (at about 17.50m) and will go to Taylor, Claye and Pichardo. Evora, Compaore and Martinez all have been pretty underwhelming so far, lets hope that it wont change in Rio ...

15) Jungfleisch basically only had one good competition this year. The last couple of years she always peaked at the right time and was able to improve her PB at the most important competition of the year. If she will be able to do it again, then she will win at least silver in my opinion. At the moment i would put my money on Lowe, Cunningham and Beitia + maybe Licwinko.