Road Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[rybak 2,778]

37 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

There are a handful of races over the next couple of weeks for the men's tour with the last big race of the season being Il Lombardia next weekend. I think this event may have been upgraded this year as the ranking points have increased compared to last year - there are now 800 ranking points for the winner so it could have significant impact on the final rankings.

 

On the other hand, the women's tour is pretty much done and dusted with just 3 1-day races to go and the Tour of Guangxi so I am not expecting any dramatic shifts in the rankings as France would need to net 500 points to overtake GB.

 men's cyclists needs 400 points to surpass  and  to move to 20th place in ranking and gets second quota, it's still any chance for that or it's rather wishful thinking?

[mpjmcevoy 227]

33 minutes ago, rybak said:

 men's cyclists needs 400 points to surpass  and  to move to 20th place in ranking and gets second quota, it's still any chance for that or it's rather wishful thinking?

If Kiakowski wins Lombardia. Which is not likely, i think, but is equally not impossible - so long as Ineos pick him

[Rafa Maciel 1,471]

9 hours ago, rybak said:

 men's cyclists needs 400 points to surpass  and  to move to 20th place in ranking and gets second quota, it's still any chance for that or it's rather wishful thinking?

Not impossible but unlikely - a 400 point swing at this stage of the season is difficult to see, but if it is going to happen then the journey starts today:

 

Coppa Bernocchi -  Rafal Majka takes on  Henok Mulubrhan and Natnael Tesfatzion. As a ProSeries event, there are 200 points available for the win but at a minimum, Majka needs a top 8 finish and has to finish ahead of both Eritreans. That would net him 50 points.  

 

3-Oct: Tre Valli Varesine -  Rafal Majka is again scheduled to take part and at least on the preliminary entry list, there are no riders from  or . Again, it is a ProSeries event so 200 for the win so Majka needs top 8 finish. 

 

3-Oct: Binche-Chimay-Binche- No ranking riders from  taking part so it will be down to the performance of  Biniam Girmay to determine the impact. As a Class 1 event, there are 125 points available for the win. If Girmay gets a top 4 finish and Majka hasn't scored in his 2 races, it becomes very difficult for Poland to overtake. 

 

Ultimately, the race is going to come down to the level of activity from the ranking riders and at the moment, there doesn't seem to be a huge amount scheduled for  although the start lists for some of the events are incomplete. So their best chance of moving up the ranking comes at Il Lombardia - a top 5 finish from Kwiatowski and suddenly things look a lot brighter for Poland. 

 

 

[dodge 806]

For me, there's only 2 cliff edge "races". Can Spain get 4-500 points from the last two weeks to overtake France for the 5th spot? It probably needs Bilbao/Mas/Landa to win Lombardia. Very unlikely. GB are safe in 4th

 

Currently Eritrea are just a few points ahead of Kazakhstan for 20th/21st. That might go down to the wire

 

Everything else is settled IMO

[Rafa Maciel 1,471]

4 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Coppa Bernocchi -  Rafal Majka takes on  Henok Mulubrhan and Natnael Tesfatzion. As a ProSeries event, there are 200 points available for the win but at a minimum, Majka needs a top 8 finish and has to finish ahead of both Eritreans. That would net him 50 points.  

 

So Majka didn't manage a top 8 finish - he came home in 22nd, 1:30 behind winner Wout Van Aert. He did however finish ahead of both Eritreans but he'll only net 5 points. 

[mpjmcevoy 227]

7 hours ago, dodge said:

For me, there's only 2 cliff edge "races". Can Spain get 4-500 points from the last two weeks to overtake France for the 5th spot? It probably needs Bilbao/Mas/Landa to win Lombardia. Very unlikely. GB are safe in 4th

 

Currently Eritrea are just a few points ahead of Kazakhstan for 20th/21st. That might go down to the wire

 

Everything else is settled IMO

For GB to be looking at full road teams men's and women's is slightly bonkers in historic context, but there men's hope is the TT, I think - if Pidcock does MTB (and he'll be the favourite in all likelihood if he does) I can't see him doing the road race, but he's probably the only Brit suited to the course.

 

Ireland, however, have a real medal shout, I think with Ben Healy - the obvious Slovenians and Low countries superstars will be favourites, of course.

 

Om the women's side I suspect the TT will be Henderson and Backstedt Óg, and both are far from also-rans. Pfeiffer Georgi seems the form road racer to add.

 

No real idea who Ireland would pick on the women's side - most attention seems to be on the women's pursuit on the track

[dodge 806]

Ireland have Mia Griffen at WT level but she has had a disastrous year with injury. She’ll hopefully be part of the pursuit team. So will Lara Gillespie, who’s probably our best cyclist. 
 

Megan Armitage is the likely choice. If they get the spot of course 

[dodge 806]

Alexei Lutsenko has won the Asian games time trial for  

 

Its worth 70 UCI points and puts them ahead of Eritrea for 20th position 

[Rafa Maciel 1,471]

Whilst there are still 10 events left on the men's tour before the end of the Olympic ranking window, today is the last big set piece event on the men's tour and the one which has the potential to have the biggest impact on the size of the teams in Paris next year - Il Lombardia. 

 

At this stage, we know that   and  are going to have a full team of 4 riders. That leaves   and  battling it out for the remaining 2 full team spots.

 

The official UCI ranking currently has Spain in 4th place ahead of GB and France but on an adjusted basis - excluding any results from Oct-22 - GB would be ahead of France and Spain. (Although the numbers are slightly different, this is in line with the current PCS ranking). Based on the ranking released on 03-Oct, GB had a lead of around 200 points on France and 500 points on Spain (Spain had a very good Il Lombardia in 2022)

 

Since the last ranking release, we have had a number of events in Italy and across these, both France and Spain have been able to outscore GB causing the gaps to close somewhat. GB now have a lead of around 130 on France and around 270 on Spain. With 800 points available for the win today and with top 8 riders scoring at least 200 points, GB's lead is not insurmountable.

 

Ranking riders taking part in Il Lombardia:

 

 Adam Yates & Simon Yates

 

 Guillaume Martin, Thibaut Pinot, Valentin Madouas, Pavel Sivakov, Romain Bardet

 

 Mikel Landa, Ion Izagirre, Carlos Rodriguez, Enric Mas, 

 

So from a pure numbers perspective, France and Spain both have the numbers to be able to swamp the points taken by the Yates brothers. If any of the Spanish or French ranking riders get a top 8 finish without that being matched by one of the Yates, then it is very possible that they will move ahead of GB in the rankings.  

Edited October 7, 2023 by Rafa Maciel

[Rafa Maciel 1,471]

12 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Ranking riders taking part in Il Lombardia:

 

 Adam Yates & Simon Yates

 

 Guillaume Martin, Thibaut Pinot, Valentin Madouas, Pavel Sivakov, Romain Bardet

 

 Mikel Landa, Ion Izagirre, Carlos Rodriguez, Enric Mas, 

 

  have lost Enric Mas to DNF and Mikel Landa unlikely to figure after a big crash. Advantage swings to France and GBR.