How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (Final Version)

[intoronto 5,622]

20 hours ago, thiago_simoes said:

Now that we have the final number of qualifiers for each nation, I'll update my predictions.

"Safe" medals
Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal
Athletics: 1 medal
Boxing: 1 medal
Judo: 1 medal

Sailing: 1 medal

Skateboarding: 3 medals

Sprint canoeing: 2 medals

Surfing: 2 medals
Volleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals

 

Likely, but definitely not easy:

Football: 1 medal
Taekwondo: 1 medal

Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals

 

Unlikely, but feasible medals

Cycling: 1 medal
Fencing: 1 medal

Slalom canoeing: 1 medal
Tennis: 1 medal

 

Nearly impossible medals

Archery: 1 medal

Table tennis: 1 medal

Wrestling: 1 medal

 

I'd say 15 medals is a realistic expectation. Some sports in the "safe medal" tier can earn more medals, like artistic gymnastics and judo, and even football can give us 2 medals, so 15 is a somewhat conservative but realistic number.

Our unofficial goal is reaching 20 medals, but for this to happen we'll need excellent performances in judo, artistic gymnastics and volleyball, and we'll need at least 2 medals in athletics and swimming. It's within reach, but I honestly don't expect this to happen anymore.

I think sprint canoeing should be 1 guaranteed and one tbd, because the second athlete in the C2 was inured and replaced.

[IoNuTzZ 305]

9 hours ago, Makedonas said:

I wouldn't say W2- is "safe"

 

Second at this year's European Championships (behind Great Britain and barely ahead of Spain and Greece), third at the World Cup event (behind Spain and Ireland) and that's not including the top 4 from the 2019 World Championships (NZ, Australia, Canada, USA) who didn't compete at those events this year. Also not including the newly formed Danish team which features two former Olympic medalists (one from London and one from Rio).

 

I still think W2- for Romania can win a medal but at most it should be in the "likely" category, definitely not "safe"

 

However I'm surprised you didn't include LW2X at all, that's another chance for Romanian rowing in my opinion.

Well yeah i forgot the LW2X with Beleagă/Cozmiuc(at european championship Cozmiuc was with Mihai, i don’t know why, and Beleagă won the silver in LW1X), definetly almost all chances are in the rowing, all the women’s crew, except women’s four, have big chances to win a medal.

[zob79 189]

21 minutes ago, IoNuTzZ said:

Well yeah i forgot the LW2X with Beleagă/Cozmiuc(at european championship Cozmiuc was with Mihai, i don’t know why, and Beleagă won the silver in LW1X), definetly almost all chances are in the rowing, all the women’s crew, except women’s four, have big chances to win a medal.

Beleaga said she wanted to see how competitive she can be in singles. Who knows, maybe after Tokyo she will compete in (LW) singles; Mihai is a good replacement for her in LW2x, so I think Romania would benefit from this swap

[Makedonas 2,133]

28 minutes ago, zob79 said:

Beleaga said she wanted to see how competitive she can be in singles. Who knows, maybe after Tokyo she will compete in (LW) singles; Mihai is a good replacement for her in LW2x, so I think Romania would benefit from this swap

LW1X isn't an Olympic event, so it's weird that she wants to switch, usually it is the other way around and they try to switch from LW1X to LW2X. Even more weird that she would try that right before the Olympics, she couldn't wait until after?

[zob79 189]

32 minutes ago, Makedonas said:

LW1X isn't an Olympic event, so it's weird that she wants to switch, usually it is the other way around and they try to switch from LW1X to LW2X. Even more weird that she would try that right before the Olympics, she couldn't wait until after?

I think Gianina just wanted to test the level of competition in singles and see how she feels competing on her own; dunno what are her future plans, but they probably depend on the Tokyo outcome

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 20/07/2021 at 06:47, thiago_simoes said:

Now that we have the final number of qualifiers for each nation, I'll update my predictions.

"Safe" medals
Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal
Athletics: 1 medal
Boxing: 1 medal
Judo: 1 medal

Sailing: 1 medal

Skateboarding: 3 medals

Sprint canoeing: 2 medals

Surfing: 2 medals
Volleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals

 

Likely, but definitely not easy:

Football: 1 medal
Taekwondo: 1 medal

Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals

 

Unlikely, but feasible medals

Cycling: 1 medal
Fencing: 1 medal

Slalom canoeing: 1 medal
Tennis: 1 medal

 

Nearly impossible medals

Archery: 1 medal

Table tennis: 1 medal

Wrestling: 1 medal

 

I'd say 15 medals is a realistic expectation. Some sports in the "safe medal" tier can earn more medals, like artistic gymnastics and judo, and even football can give us 2 medals, so 15 is a somewhat conservative but realistic number.

Our unofficial goal is reaching 20 medals, but for this to happen we'll need excellent performances in judo, artistic gymnastics and volleyball, and we'll need at least 2 medals in athletics and swimming. It's within reach, but I honestly don't expect this to happen anymore.

1 medal in athletics is safe and 2 in swimming are likely? Does Brazil have any medal contenders in athletics apart from Dos Santos? In swimming 2 medals would be the absolute best case in my opinion.

[Makedonas 2,133]

44 minutes ago, zob79 said:

I think Gianina just wanted to test the level of competition in singles and see how she feels competing on her own; dunno what are her future plans, but they probably depend on the Tokyo outcome

Maybe she might switch to W1X but was trying LW1X since she still needs to be lightweight for Tokyo? Romania has so much talent in women's rowing and they didn't try to qualify in W1X this year so maybe that's why, so Romania can have an additional boat in Paris.

 

Also she is 177cm, that is quite tall for a lightweight rower. It might be hard for her to keep a low weight. Kyridou is 180cm and that's part of why she gave up with lightweight and switched to W1X last year after Tokyo Games got postponed (she lost 10kg between 2019 and 2020 to be lightweight but then she was fainting, it's not healthy).

[LDOG 2,418]

5 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

1 medal in athletics is safe and 2 in swimming are likely? Does Brazil have any medal contenders in athletics apart from Dos Santos? In swimming 2 medals would be the absolute best case in my opinion.

They have the shot put guy who was 4th in WCh but he got covid recently I believe so he may not be in best shape.

[Nickyc707 382]

16 hours ago, Dragon said:

That's a strange mixture for GB of very optimistic in some sports, wildly pessimistic in others.

They admit their forecasts have been hampered by Covid, notably due to a lack of participation in events by China's top athletes.

[LuizGuilherme 261]

3 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

1 medal in athletics is safe and 2 in swimming are likely? Does Brazil have any medal contenders in athletics apart from Dos Santos? In swimming 2 medals would be the absolute best case in my opinion.

I think he is thinking about Ana Marcela Cunha in Swimming Marathon and Bruno Fratus in 50m Free (although in my opinion both medals are possibly but nothing even closer of being likely, they arent in my predictions)

About athletics in my opinion Dos Santos will be the bronze medalist and i would be surprised if not