OlympicsFan

If you look at the dutch numbers provided by the Johns Hopkins University, then it seems pretty likely that they have a recovery rate of less than 50 % so far: They have around 31k cases and roughly 4k deaths. During the last 14 days they had on average more than 1k new cases every day. Since people who have been tested positive during the last 14 days can't be considered recovered, they at best have 13k recoveries (31k total cases - 4k deaths - 14k active cases). Therefore at the absolute best the Netherlands could have a recovery rate of 42 % and that's only if we assume that noone who has tested positive more than 14 days ago and hasn't died isn't considered recovered yet ... If we assume that at least 1k of those people haven't recovered yet, then their recovery rate at best would be 39 % and if we assume that at least 2k of those people haven't recovered yet, then their recovery rate at best would be 35 %.

Not sure how you can say all those things about Malaysia and especially Iran? I think all those things would be far more accurate when talking about countries like Norway, Iceland, Taiwan, Singapore or New Zealand (maybe also Israel). Of course it is much easier to deal with this virus if you are living on an island. For countries like Sweden, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand or Australia it was much easier to contain it then for some countries in the middle of Europe. When we take this into consideration, the english failure becomes even more impressive. I would also like to point out that Greece apparently has done a great job. I don't know how they did it, but somehow they handled this very well. I was sure that Greece would suffer at least as much as Italy, but their response (apparently) was absolutely brilliant. I never thought that Greece would become a role model for countries like Spain, Italy, France, England or even Belgium, considering that they were in a much worse situation to begin with.

Both recovery rates and death rates are pretty meaningless/impossible to compare between countries. Countries like Spain, Italy, England, France or the US have horrible recovery/death rates because they have been horrible at testing and missed most cases. I would say the number of deaths and the reproduction rate are far more important numbers. In addition to that you just have to look at the hospitals to see what is truly going on.

Sure ... only 22 % of Germany's cases, but 81 % of Germany's deaths, while having only 21 % of Germany's population.. The Netherlands are doing a tremendous job and their recovery rates for sure are through the roof.

There are 8 countries with more than one tenth of India's population (USA, China, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Pakistan). Of course Indonesia and Nigeria aren't way ahead of India (and i think India will easily outperform both of those countries in Tokyo), but you have to ask yourself why India (Pakistan/Bangladesh/Indonesia) aren't way outperforming countries that are both much smaller and poorer. For example at the 2016 olympics India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Bangladesh (with a combined population of roughly 2 billion people) won 5 medals combined, on the other hand: - Kenya with a population of 47 million people won 13 medals - Jamaica with a population of less than 3 million people won 11 medals - Cuba with a population of 11 million people won 11 medals - Uzbekistan with a population of 34 million people won 13 medals - Colombia with a population of 50 million people won 8 medals - South Africa with a population of 59 million people won 10 medals It's not like any of those countries are super rich either ... and despite a much smaller population they are far more successful.

The writers suggested that it had something to do with prenatal malnutrition/malnutrition during childhood. In Sub-Saharan Africa the percentage of children with severe acute malnutrition is only half as high as in India.

It's funny that you mention it ... since they discussed that point too. According to them it's not an explanation, because if all of "India's talent" would focus on cricket, then they should be very dominant in that sport, but they (according to the writers (i have no clue about cricket ...)) have never been as dominant as Australia/England or even the West Indies (apparently they are/were good in cricket?).

Today i read some interesting stats (not sure how up to date those stats still are) and thought that it might fit in this thread. In the book "Poor Economics" by Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo it says: - At the last 22 olympics India on average won 0.92 medals, - There are 79 countries that won more medals on average and India has at least 10 times more people than 73 of those 79 countries, - Among those 79 countries are for example Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda. All those countries are poorer than India and have won at least ten times more medals per capita than India, - No country that won less olympic medals than India has even one tenth of India's population, expect for Pakistan and Bangladesh ... coincidence? The book offers an interesting possible explanation that doesn't have anything to do with funding or politics.

An (somewhat?) interesting comparison of how Germany and Sweden handled this pandemic so far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyqRsOPo4Ik About the current situation in Germany: Apparently the reproduction rate went down to 0.7, which is good news, but i am not sure whether it still is too early to "end the lockdown", considering that the Wuhan region had a reproduction rate of 0.32 before they ended the lockdown and now they still seem to get a second wave pretty quickly. In addition to that there are currently more than 11k free hospital beds in Germany, so there is some "wiggle room". About a possible vaccine: I am not sure whether this has been mentioned before, but apparently some oxford scientist said a couple of days ago that they could have a vaccine by September if everything "works out as planned". As i mentioned before a representative of the german company "CureVac said that same recently, so let's hope that we will maybe have a vaccine for high-risk groups by the end of the year. From what i understand, they aren't trying to develop a completely new vaccine, but they are hoping to repurpose a vaccine that has originally been designed for another virus and might also work on this virus after some "adjustments". Since those vaccines already cleared phase 1 of the clinical trials, they might be available much sooner than vaccines that have to be developed "from scratch".

No, because it could/will never be proven.

Which masks are you talking about? I think the kind of mask that i am wearing is also protecting myself ...

You think Spain, Italy and Sweden are in a better position than Russia? Based on what?

1) Not sure Japan is more likely to win bronze than China/Italy ... ? 6) I don't follow dressage closely, but is the US really more likely to win silver than GB or the Netherlands? 11) I am absolutely sure that Germany will win a medal, probably even gold. 14) They first two look pretty solid, but i don't agree about Lewis. I think there are multiple guys (for example Scott) who are more likely to win bronze. 15) Definitely a good prediction, although i feel that at least one out of Ruck/Baker will medal. 16) Another good prediction, but pretty bold to not predict a medal for Murphy. Personally i would like to see Irie winning a medal at home.

2) I would be very surprised if the US would finish ahead of China and Japan. 8) Would be quite funny if Deguchi would steal the gold medal from a japanese girl in front of her home crowd. 16) I don't see Australia beating Brazil (or even Italy).

About your swimming predictions: I would say that they look pretty good, but i think the US will win a medal in women's 400 IM and i also think Hagino and/or an american guy not named Litherland will win a medal in men's 400 IM.

18) My prediction would be: Ledecky and Titmus will fight for gold, bronze is very open (Anderson, Pellegrini, Sjöstrom (if she swims it), Haughey, Ikee, Oleksiak, Ruck, McKeon, Schmitt, 2 chinese girls) 19) Milak ahead of Urlando and Seto (or maybe LeClos/Kenderesi) 20) Hosszu ahead of 2 out of Ohashi/Baker/Margalis/Walsh/Ye Shiwen 21) Ledecky ahead of Quadarella and Köhler or one of the chinese girls 22) USA, Japan, Russia, GB and Australia are all very close, so too close to call ...

So what are you saying? a) The scientists were just doing research on the virus and it accidentally transferred to humans or b) They genetically engineered the virus and it then transferred to humans (due to inadequate personal protection? I am surprised that apparently China only has one BSL-4, while ... - Brazil, Belarus, Switzerland, Sweden, South Africa and even Gabon also have one each - India and Australia both have 2 - GB has at least 3 - Germany has at least 4 - The US has 14 that are planned/currently active I am also not sure how „clever“ it is to have a laboratory like that in a big city, but apparently it is the same in other countries. Germany for example has one BSL-4 in Hamburg and one in Berlin, the US has one in San Antonio, one in Boston and one in Atlanta, Brazil has one in São Paulo, France has one in Lyon, GB has one in London, Italy has one in Rome, Belarus has one in Minsk, Russia has one in Moscow, India has one in Hyderabad, Australia has one in Melbourne and Japan has one in Tokyo.

Who created that challenge and what exactly is the challenge? Also: How dare you to select a song by Led Zeppelin other than "Immigrant Song" (their best song ever by the way ...) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlNhD0oS5pk

If we are only talking about novels and not poetry/philosophy/science, then my two favorite books are: The Trial (Franz Kafka) and Notes from Underground (Fyodor Dostoevsky) Sadly i haven't read too many of Dostoevsky's books so far, so maybe some of his other works will join that list later on. I also haven't read those books in english, so i can't say how good they are in that version. Unfortunately i haven't read a lot over the past couple of years, since i have become pretty "lazy" in that regard (nowadays i prefer watching documentaries). It is also absolutely impossible to read all the great books (or even a significant fraction of it) in only one lifetime, so you have to chose very wisely ...

Obviously ... i never claimed anything else. My point was: If you would create a bioweapon, you would probably take a deadly virus and change it in a way that it spreads more easily/has a longer incubation period. The other alternative would be to take a very contagious virus and make it more deadly. This virus has a mortality rate of roughly 0.3 %, while some other viruses kill between 30 and 50 % of all infected people. I also think that if you would create of bioweapon, you would at the same time create a treatment/vaccine. I am not saying that the virus definitely didn't come from a laboratory or wasn't engineered, but i am pretty sure that it isn't some bioweapon (that was released on purpose).

If noone would take him/what he says seriously, then he would have never become president and probably wouldn't be the favorite to win the next election too. It is hard to believe, but there are actually millions of americans who believe what he says. I also have to say that Joe Biden isn't much better. Of course he normally is less offensive than Trump, but during the past couple of months it became pretty obvious that he also pretty much lost control over his mind. I am not sure why american people are so obsessed with being governed by old (white) men who clearly have some "cognitive issues" ... ?

While i think that it is certainly possible that this virus came from a lab (coincidentally China's only level 4 microbiology lab is in Wuhan ...), i am pretty confident that this virus isn't some man-made weapon. If the plan would have been to create a bioweapon, then you would have used a more deadly pathogen like Ebola or Lassa virus. In addition to that you wouldn't "release" the virus in the country where it was created, you would "release" it in some completely different part of the world, so that noone can ever trace it back to you. Here are two articles that also doubt that the virus originated in a lab: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21156607/how-did-the-coronavirus-get-started-china-wuhan-lab https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9.pdf Naturally it is very difficult to prove where a virus didn't come from, when you don't know where it came from or who was patient zero ...

Here is a table with the number of foreign Covid-19 patients currently treated in german hospitals: https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article207207005/Corona-Krise-In-der-Krise-wird-Deutschland-zum-heimlichen-Helden-Europas.html 107 patients from France, 32 patients from Italy and 40 patients from the Netherlands Bavaria (Bayern) and Berlin didn't report any numbers, but i am pretty sure that both of those states also have some foreign patients currently. I hope that the lockdown in Germany will soon loosen up, considering that there seem to be many empty beds in german hospitals.

Thanks. Do you have any idea why Germany took on so many dutch patients then?

Not sur if it counts, but both the FIFA and the FIBA Youtube channels have uploaded some "classics" recently: FIFA for example uploaded Netherlands vs. Mexico (2014 world cup), France vs. Argentina (2018 world cup), Nigeria vs. Italy (1994 world cup), Portugal vs. Spain (2018 world cup), Brazil vs. Argentina (1990 world cup), France vs. Italy (2006 world cup), Netherlands vs. Brazil (2010 world cup), Brazil vs. France (1986 world cup), Spain vs. Netherlands (2014 world cup) and also the official movies for the 2014 and 2018 world cups. https://www.youtube.com/user/FIFATV/videos FIBA uploaded USA vs. Serbia (2014 world cup), Spain vs. Slovenia (2017 eurobasket), Yugoslavia vs. Argentina (2002 world cup) and a "movie" about the history of the world cup. https://www.youtube.com/user/FIBAWorld/videos