OlympicsFan

I think that this isn’t true for all western countries. In 2017 the US paid 35 billion dollars of foreign aid and among the top 10 recipients were 7 African nations. GB paid 18 billion dollars in foreign aid and among the top 10 recipients there were 5 African countries. On the other hand Germany paid 25 billion dollars in foreign aid and among the 10 recipients there was only one African country (Morroco), while the top recipient was India with 1 billion dollars and China was 3rd with 700 million dollars. The EU paid more than 16 billion dollars in foreign aid and among the top 10 recipients were only 2 African countries (Morocco and Tunisia). Funnily enough the top recipient was Turkey with 2.6 billion dollars. I guess due to the colonial history some European countries are more hesitant to tell African countries what to do, China doesn’t have that Problem.

Ok, but when you judge someone‘s actions, it would maybe make sense to know what the goal is.

In Germany there are also tons of People From Poland/Romania doing those jobs. GB could decide that those jobs have to be done by unemployed people who would otherwise lose their benefits. Of course only if they are in the physical condition to do that. If you hire local people, you have to pay higher wages. I think Italy is discussing giving citizenship to illegal immigrants who are willing to do those jobs. Recently I also saw a documentary about illegal African immigrants in Almeria, Spain. They only earn 10 € or so a day. The question is what would happen to the prizes if those people would be payed minimum wage?

I think there is a difference ... I think it is safe to say that those students are far more qualified than your normal immigrant, I am also not sure how long they plan to stay.

What I find interesting is China‘s global strategy. How many wars did the US start to gain influence? China doesn’t need that, they „gained control“ over Africa without having to lead any wars.

1) Is the pandemic already over? If not, then maybe it would make sense to wait with judgement until it is over. 2) I think saving as many lives as possible is important for most governments, but I think you can‘t just look at the fatality rates, you also have to look at the economy.

The situation in Brazil (and South America in general) is looking pretty bad. Also the UK, the US and Russia are not doing a very Good Job. You have to wonder whether that has anything to do with the „mindset“ of their political leaders. Brazil is a great country with amazing potential, but I am not sure that the way they are currently on is the right way for them.

Why is it safe to say that?

Don’t know which clubs you are talking about, but in Germany that certainly isn’t a problem. There are far more than enough test in Germany for everyone who needs them. Some laboratories even had to close because there wasn’t enough tests to conduct anymore. Germany currently can conduct more than 800k test per week, only seems logical that not all of them are needed when there are less than 1000 new cases every day. The Bundesliga even said that if the tests will be need elsewhere, they will without a doubt immediately stop the league again and not ask for any more tests. On topic: The league will start on May 15th or May 22th according to Merkel, it is up to the league to choose the date. Before every matchday all players and staff will be tested. The league already conducted their first round of testing and apparently out of the more than 1700 tests „only“ 10 were positive.

I am not a fan of her and dutch sports (espcially cycling) in general.

Or 2018 Russia ...

I think the Netherlands and especially India would be super happy. India would probably declare a national holiday ... Not so sure about France, Japan and GB though ... For Germany it would be a decent result. On the one hand "we" should do much better in swimming and athletics than in 2016, on the other hand it would be a miracle if "we" could repeat our great performances in shooting and canoeing sprint. Germany hasn't won a swimming (gold) medal since 2008, so it would be great if Wellbrock could make it happen. Swimming, athletics and track cycling are the sports i care most about at the olympics, so i hope that Germany will do good there. From a german perspective i also hope that ... a) At least one german team (handball/hockey) will reach a final b) At least one german athlete will fight for gold in the individual jumping event till the last round c) At least one german athlete/team will fight for a medal in fencing d) At least one german woman will reach the balance beam final e) At least one german athlete/double will reach a tennis final

Sadly i think that Wild win at least medal in women's omnium.

Great insight ... so the predictions we make 1 week before the games will matter how? Of course a lot can happen, but you can say the same about any sport. What if the NBA will boycott the games? Would the US still be favorites for gold? By that logic we shouldn't make any predictions before the games.

1) Ok ... so if Mali wins the next Africa Cup, you will predict that they reach the top 3 of the next world cup ... ? All 4 european teams that qualified will 99 % field teams that will be clearly stronger than Egypt. Salah is a great player, but ... a) One player like him isn't enough b) Other nations could also nominate world-class players who are older than 23 2) How do you know the draw already? 3) France won't even make the semifinal despite having clearly the best talent pool of all teams? 4) I didn't say anything about womens canoeing sprint, because i don't follow women's canoeing sprint, so i have no idea who will be the medal contenders. Edit: I just looked up the market values of the 3 most valuable egyptian U23 players. 1) Ramadan Sobhi (3.2 million) 2) Mostafa Mohamed (950 k) 3) Salah Mohsen (525 k) For reference there are almost 90 french U23 players who have a market value of more than 3.2 million ...

A lot of predictions I can’t agree to: 1) I would take any bet that Germany will win at least one medal in men’s javelin throw. I would say Germany has at least a 50 % chance to win gold and/or 2 medals. 2) Brendel not winning a medal in men’s C1 1000 m is also highly unlikely. 3) Your football predictions are very strange. Even if France wouldn’t be allowed to nominate their 10 best players, they still would have a better team than all those teams you predicted to win a medal. I think France and Brazil easily will have the two most talented teams and should be considered favorites, followed by Spain and maybe Argentina/Germany. Brazil could for example nominate Jesus/Richarlison/Militao/Neres/Vinicius/Rodryo/Martinelli/Lodi/Malcolm. France could for example nominate Dembele/Mbappe/Upamecano/Guendouzi/Konate/Aouar/Camavinga/Kamara/Diaby/Nkunku/Zagadou/Ikone. The only nation that is anywhere close talent-wise is England, but they aren’t qualified.

1) I am not saying that Coutinho or Hernandez were definitely world-class when they joined Bayern, it is up for debate. Hernandez always played for Atlético and France, Coutinho is a world-class player for me, but he isn‘t playing world-class football the last couple of years. 2) Süle is the best german central defender when he isn’t injured, maybe apart from Rüdiger. He will play for the German national team for a long time, he wasn‘t great under Kovac, but who was (apart from Lewandowski) ...? He seems slow because he is so tall and bulky, but once he gets rolling he is pretty fast. 3) Boateng has been great recently under Flick, I would say at the moment (with Süle injured) he definitely is a top 2 central defender in Germany. 4) Apparently you haven’t watched many Bayern games recently? Alaba has been phenomenal recently, he easily has been a top 5 central defender in the world this year. Bayern completely dominated Chelsea with him, so I don’t know which world class teams you are talking about? He is perfect for the Bayern game because he is very fast and his build-up game is superb for a central defender.

Not so sure if it would be a bad thing ... For athletes in many countries (i think i don't have to give names) nothing much changed, the only difference might be that athletes in countries that are usually more "strict" had more "possibilities" during that period.

Women's 1500 m: Where is Hassan? Women's 4x100 m: Would be great to see a medal for Germany, but i think the US will be back strong next year. Beach volleyball women: Germany not winning a medal here would be a disaster. Women's field hockey: I don't see a chance for Ireland winning a medal. Cycling men's sprint: I am sure that GB will win a medal. Table tennis men's team: No medal for Japan???

1) Coutinho or Hernandez weren't world-class players for you last season? 2) Sane's contract only lasts one more year, so there is absolutely no way that Bayern will pay 80M or even 100M for him, 50M would be the absolute max in my opinion. 3) How does Bayern really need a central defender? Alaba has played great this season, Süle will come back soon and then they also have Hernandez and Pavard. If there is one position were Bayern doesn't need to sign a new player, then it is central defender (and maybe a left back). 4) Bayern easily could have had Werner last season and i think they still could have him if they wanted, but the truth is that they don't need him. Up front they already have Lewandowski (who is obviously better than Werner) and Werner can't play as a number 10 or a winger. Werner would be completely unnecessary (which sadly doesn't mean that Bayern would buy him). Havertz would make much more sense position-wise. I am still convinced that Bayern can still get most Bundesliga players if they wanted to (it is looking good with Upamecano and Havertz from what i can tell), but the truth is that there aren't many players in the Bundesliga that could help to reach their goal of winning the Champions. I think Sancho is the only player in the Bundesliga that could improve their team right now. Bayern needs a right back/central midfielder (depending on where Kimmich will play), a new goalkeeper (when Neuer retires), a number 10 and a at least new winger. Currently there is no goalkeeper/right back in the Bundesliga who is world-class or could become world-class soon. The only central midfielder who could become world-class in my opinion is Zakaria and the only number 10 who could become world-class is Havertz, so those 3 (Havertz, Zakaria, Sancho) would be good signings in my opinion, but sadly Sancho is out of reach for Bayern.

I think it's May 9th ... ? Apparently the plan is to test all the people who are going to be in the stadium before every game, which would mean that they need roughly 20k tests to finish the season. Some people in Germany said that they couldn't do it, because other people need the tests more, but from what i can tell Germany currently can test 800k to 850k people a week and there are a lot of free capacities (not surprising when you only have 1000 - 2000 new infections every day), so they wouldn't take anything away from anyone. It has been said that the Bundesliga would lose around 700 million € if they would end the season now, so economically speaking it for sure would be great news if they could finish the season. Aren't you a fan of Bayern Munich? If that's the case ... how do you feel about possible signings for the new season (Upamecano, Sane, Dest)?

Just because for example Manuel Lombardo only won silver doesn't mean that he got unlucky. You could also say that he got lucky to even reach the final. In general i would say that there are not many events where you could say that there is a certain athlete X who would have to get unlucky to "only" win silver, especially in fighting sports.

1) Just because you win far more silver than gold doesn't mean that you got unlucky. In many sports you can win silver without losing a final. In fact only 7 out of the 16 silver medals came in sports where there is a 1 vs. 1 final (taekwondo, judo, fencing, track cycling). Of course you could say that losing 7 out of 7 1 vs. 1 finals is extremely unlikely, but you can't really say much about the actual likelihood of that happening, not every 1 vs. 1 final is 50/50, normally there is one favorite. At the same time you could also say that maybe all those athletes actually were pretty lucky to even reach the final. It doesn't make much sense (in my opinion) to say "Italy should have a better percentage of gold medals, so i am gonna predict a gold medal for them in an event where i actually don't expect them to win gold", instead you should look at all events separately and just ask yourself whether they are more likely than not to win gold in those events. 2) I agree that Italy not winning a single gold medal in fencing and shooting combined is very unlikely. I would expect them to win 3-4 golds in those 2 sports. 3) In his prediction Italy won 8 silver medals for every gold medal, Azerbaijan in 2016 won 7 silver medals and only 1 gold. 6 out of those 7 silver medals came in sports with 1 vs. 1 finals (wrestling, judo, boxing). Edit: About 1) If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 60/40 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 3 %. If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 70/30 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 8 %. If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 80/20 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 21 %. If we assume that all the finals with italian athletes are 90/10 in favor of their opponents, then the probability of Italy losing all those finals would be around 48 %.

Could Italy become the new Canada (concerning percentage of gold medals)? I just looked it up if that would be some record, but apparently it wouldn‘t. Azerbaijan won 18 medals in 2016, but only 1 of them in gold. Still not as bad as Germany in 1952 with 24 medals in total and none of them in gold, which is the record for most medals without a single gold medal.

Some interesting predictions in athletics ... I am very certain that none out of Zambrano, Uibo and Preiner will win a medal.