JoshMartini007

What happened to Brazil's women's team? On the other hand it looks like Argentina may be the top South American team on the women's side. Defeating Spain, China and South Africa was unlikely up until this year

They could also host a 5 team tournament among the already qualified nations.

One step closer to a 3 week Olympics. Just need to move the opening ceremony

One step closer to a 3 week Olympics. Just need to move the opening ceremony

One step closer to a 3 week Olympics. Just need to move the opening ceremony

Here's my deep look for Group C.
 
 is already guaranteed to finish in the top 4 and will compete in the World Cup, all other teams have a chance. Here's what the final matches look like:
 
 v  
 v  
 v  
 
If Canada defeats Australia they will qualify to the World Cup. Likewise, the winner of Turkey and Hungary will qualify to the World Cup. Here's what is needed for them to qualify to the World Cup if they lose their match.
 
 - Either Turkey defeats Hungary or Argentina defeats Japan
 - Either Japan defeats Argentina or Australia defeats Canada
 - Either Canada defeats Australia or Argentina defeats Japan
 
For Japan and Argentina they must not only win their match, but also require the following results.
 
 - Australia defeats Canada
 - Canada defeats Australia and Hungary defeats Turkey
 
 
Here's a chart:
 
Winners Qualify to World Cup                  
Scenario Counts
Australia - 8/8
Canada - 7/8
Hungary - 7/8
Turkey - 7/8
Japan - 2/8
Argentina - 1/8

Congrats
 
Both semifinal matches will be exciting to watch.

One day the IOC will allow 12-team tournaments for invited sports and then Canada will have a much better chance at making it.

One day the IOC will allow 12-team tournaments for invited sports and then Canada will have a much better chance at making it.

Congrats
 
Both semifinal matches will be exciting to watch.

Congrats
 
Both semifinal matches will be exciting to watch.

Congrats
 
Both semifinal matches will be exciting to watch.

Congrats
 
Both semifinal matches will be exciting to watch.

Congrats
 
Both semifinal matches will be exciting to watch.

defeated  77-64. Africa may have two entrants at the World Cup if things follow as expected.

What a dumb qualification method. Literally the final four teams went up against opponents which could not qualify.

Baseball has good enough depth to be included at the Olympics, it's on a similar level as field hockey/rugby sevens/water polo. What holds it back is venue costs and MLB refusing to let the players compete.
 
With that said, baseball definitely has an African depth problem. WBSC has been working hard on developing sport on the continent which is a lot more than what water polo has done.

2028 Team Size Projection – Feb 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. Only February events were considered for this update. Sorry for the late update, I was quite busy in my personal life. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
Aquatics (Artistic Swimming, Diving, Water Polo)
World Cup events were held for artistic swimming and diving. is now projected to qualify in artistic swimming over .
 
Diving saw some changes with gains going to (4) (2) and losses going to (2) .
 
Water polo had the European Championships. No changes to Olympic projections.
 
Athletics (Marathon & Race Walking)
The Tokyo Marathon and a gold level race walking tour event in Taicang were held. In the men’s marathon and are now in a qualifying position at the expense of and . On the women’s side; (2) have moved into a qualifying position while are out.
 
In the men’s 20km walk, gained two quotas at the expense of and . For the women’s 20km walk it is who are in position while are out.
 
Badminton
The African and Oceania championships took place along with other minor tournaments. The only change relative to last month was in the men’s doubles where overtook for the final spot
 
Baseball/Softball
The qualification document was released. While a slight change occurred, no changes to the teams qualified were made.
 
Basketball
A set of men’s World Cup qualifiers were held this month. Angola’s loss to Mali is something to consider, but given how close it was I still consider Angola to still be the favourite to qualify. On the other hand, Argentina’s loss to Uruguay is enough to consider a change. After some shuffling around is now on the inside while is out.
 
Cycling (BMX Racing, Road & Track)
Major events held this month include various continental championships.
 
In BMX Racing, gained a quota over in the men’s while is in a qualifying position over for the women.
 
In road cycling, on the men’s side; gained one quota over respectively. On the women’s side; gained one quota over
 
Track cycling see changes in the men’s individual sprint/keirin ( gain over ), men’s Madison ( gain over ), men’s omnium ( and gain over and ), women’s team sprint ( gain over ) and women’s individual sprint/keirin ( x2 over and ).
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Several World Cup events were held this month. In Dressage; gained an individual quota over respectively. While in Jumping the team quota saw gains for over inversely, Colombia and Portugal will gain an individual quota, replacing the vacated Mexico and Spain. Additionally there are gains for over
 
Fencing (Foil)
The Turin Grand Prix was held this month among other events. No changes in any of the foil events.
 
Field Hockey
The Pro League continues. No changes in terms of Olympic projection.
 
Golf
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational were the main events held on the men’s side. However, no changes in terms of Olympic projection.
 
Judo
The Paris and Tashkent Grand Slam were major events held.
 
The following nations gained a men’s quota:
The following nations lost a men’s quota:
The following nations gained a women’s quota:
The following nations lost a women’s quota:
 
Lacrosse
The qualification document was released. No changes to the teams qualified were made.
 
Rugby Sevens
The World Series event in Perth, Australia and the second tier event in Nairobi, Kenya were held this month. No changes on the men’s side while on the women’s side there was some shuffling, but ultimately no one fell off. Argentina did make a case by winning the SVNS 2 tournament while Brazil finished 6th which included a 28-17 win for Argentina. While a good start, I don’t think it’s quite enough to make the swab just yet.
 
Shooting
The Asian Rifle/Pistol Championships were held this month. No updates to the qualification projection.
 
Sport Climbing
The Oceania Speed World Championships were held this month. No updates to the projection.
 
Squash
The Windy City Open among other events were held this month. On the men’s side is now in a qualification position over . No changes on the women’s side.
 
Surfing
The qualification document was released. There is now less emphasis on the World Surf League and the priority for the continental qualifiers have changed. This has caused some changes to the projections. For the men; are now in qualification positions causing to drop off. On the women’s side; are in and are out.
 
Table Tennis
The qualification document was released along with the Singapore Smash. Relative to my estimations a few changes occurred. Quota changes include losing men’s quotas. They are replaced by :MDA. On the women’s side, are replaced by .

For BMX racing it looks like points from a Class 1 event (Copa internacional Guatemala) got dropped off for one of their riders (Federico Villegas). This caused Argentina to fall behind Denmark to sixth causing them to go from 2 to 1 quota.
 
For dressage, Leonardo Godoy competed in three events across Florida, United States which gave him enough points to be placed in projected qualification.

defeated  77-64. Africa may have two entrants at the World Cup if things follow as expected.

2028 Team Size Projection – Feb 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. Only February events were considered for this update. Sorry for the late update, I was quite busy in my personal life. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
Aquatics (Artistic Swimming, Diving, Water Polo)
World Cup events were held for artistic swimming and diving. is now projected to qualify in artistic swimming over .
 
Diving saw some changes with gains going to (4) (2) and losses going to (2) .
 
Water polo had the European Championships. No changes to Olympic projections.
 
Athletics (Marathon & Race Walking)
The Tokyo Marathon and a gold level race walking tour event in Taicang were held. In the men’s marathon and are now in a qualifying position at the expense of and . On the women’s side; (2) have moved into a qualifying position while are out.
 
In the men’s 20km walk, gained two quotas at the expense of and . For the women’s 20km walk it is who are in position while are out.
 
Badminton
The African and Oceania championships took place along with other minor tournaments. The only change relative to last month was in the men’s doubles where overtook for the final spot
 
Baseball/Softball
The qualification document was released. While a slight change occurred, no changes to the teams qualified were made.
 
Basketball
A set of men’s World Cup qualifiers were held this month. Angola’s loss to Mali is something to consider, but given how close it was I still consider Angola to still be the favourite to qualify. On the other hand, Argentina’s loss to Uruguay is enough to consider a change. After some shuffling around is now on the inside while is out.
 
Cycling (BMX Racing, Road & Track)
Major events held this month include various continental championships.
 
In BMX Racing, gained a quota over in the men’s while is in a qualifying position over for the women.
 
In road cycling, on the men’s side; gained one quota over respectively. On the women’s side; gained one quota over
 
Track cycling see changes in the men’s individual sprint/keirin ( gain over ), men’s Madison ( gain over ), men’s omnium ( and gain over and ), women’s team sprint ( gain over ) and women’s individual sprint/keirin ( x2 over and ).
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Several World Cup events were held this month. In Dressage; gained an individual quota over respectively. While in Jumping the team quota saw gains for over inversely, Colombia and Portugal will gain an individual quota, replacing the vacated Mexico and Spain. Additionally there are gains for over
 
Fencing (Foil)
The Turin Grand Prix was held this month among other events. No changes in any of the foil events.
 
Field Hockey
The Pro League continues. No changes in terms of Olympic projection.
 
Golf
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational were the main events held on the men’s side. However, no changes in terms of Olympic projection.
 
Judo
The Paris and Tashkent Grand Slam were major events held.
 
The following nations gained a men’s quota:
The following nations lost a men’s quota:
The following nations gained a women’s quota:
The following nations lost a women’s quota:
 
Lacrosse
The qualification document was released. No changes to the teams qualified were made.
 
Rugby Sevens
The World Series event in Perth, Australia and the second tier event in Nairobi, Kenya were held this month. No changes on the men’s side while on the women’s side there was some shuffling, but ultimately no one fell off. Argentina did make a case by winning the SVNS 2 tournament while Brazil finished 6th which included a 28-17 win for Argentina. While a good start, I don’t think it’s quite enough to make the swab just yet.
 
Shooting
The Asian Rifle/Pistol Championships were held this month. No updates to the qualification projection.
 
Sport Climbing
The Oceania Speed World Championships were held this month. No updates to the projection.
 
Squash
The Windy City Open among other events were held this month. On the men’s side is now in a qualification position over . No changes on the women’s side.
 
Surfing
The qualification document was released. There is now less emphasis on the World Surf League and the priority for the continental qualifiers have changed. This has caused some changes to the projections. For the men; are now in qualification positions causing to drop off. On the women’s side; are in and are out.
 
Table Tennis
The qualification document was released along with the Singapore Smash. Relative to my estimations a few changes occurred. Quota changes include losing men’s quotas. They are replaced by :MDA. On the women’s side, are replaced by .

2028 Team Size Projection – Feb 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. Only February events were considered for this update. Sorry for the late update, I was quite busy in my personal life. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
Aquatics (Artistic Swimming, Diving, Water Polo)
World Cup events were held for artistic swimming and diving. is now projected to qualify in artistic swimming over .
 
Diving saw some changes with gains going to (4) (2) and losses going to (2) .
 
Water polo had the European Championships. No changes to Olympic projections.
 
Athletics (Marathon & Race Walking)
The Tokyo Marathon and a gold level race walking tour event in Taicang were held. In the men’s marathon and are now in a qualifying position at the expense of and . On the women’s side; (2) have moved into a qualifying position while are out.
 
In the men’s 20km walk, gained two quotas at the expense of and . For the women’s 20km walk it is who are in position while are out.
 
Badminton
The African and Oceania championships took place along with other minor tournaments. The only change relative to last month was in the men’s doubles where overtook for the final spot
 
Baseball/Softball
The qualification document was released. While a slight change occurred, no changes to the teams qualified were made.
 
Basketball
A set of men’s World Cup qualifiers were held this month. Angola’s loss to Mali is something to consider, but given how close it was I still consider Angola to still be the favourite to qualify. On the other hand, Argentina’s loss to Uruguay is enough to consider a change. After some shuffling around is now on the inside while is out.
 
Cycling (BMX Racing, Road & Track)
Major events held this month include various continental championships.
 
In BMX Racing, gained a quota over in the men’s while is in a qualifying position over for the women.
 
In road cycling, on the men’s side; gained one quota over respectively. On the women’s side; gained one quota over
 
Track cycling see changes in the men’s individual sprint/keirin ( gain over ), men’s Madison ( gain over ), men’s omnium ( and gain over and ), women’s team sprint ( gain over ) and women’s individual sprint/keirin ( x2 over and ).
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Several World Cup events were held this month. In Dressage; gained an individual quota over respectively. While in Jumping the team quota saw gains for over inversely, Colombia and Portugal will gain an individual quota, replacing the vacated Mexico and Spain. Additionally there are gains for over
 
Fencing (Foil)
The Turin Grand Prix was held this month among other events. No changes in any of the foil events.
 
Field Hockey
The Pro League continues. No changes in terms of Olympic projection.
 
Golf
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational were the main events held on the men’s side. However, no changes in terms of Olympic projection.
 
Judo
The Paris and Tashkent Grand Slam were major events held.
 
The following nations gained a men’s quota:
The following nations lost a men’s quota:
The following nations gained a women’s quota:
The following nations lost a women’s quota:
 
Lacrosse
The qualification document was released. No changes to the teams qualified were made.
 
Rugby Sevens
The World Series event in Perth, Australia and the second tier event in Nairobi, Kenya were held this month. No changes on the men’s side while on the women’s side there was some shuffling, but ultimately no one fell off. Argentina did make a case by winning the SVNS 2 tournament while Brazil finished 6th which included a 28-17 win for Argentina. While a good start, I don’t think it’s quite enough to make the swab just yet.
 
Shooting
The Asian Rifle/Pistol Championships were held this month. No updates to the qualification projection.
 
Sport Climbing
The Oceania Speed World Championships were held this month. No updates to the projection.
 
Squash
The Windy City Open among other events were held this month. On the men’s side is now in a qualification position over . No changes on the women’s side.
 
Surfing
The qualification document was released. There is now less emphasis on the World Surf League and the priority for the continental qualifiers have changed. This has caused some changes to the projections. For the men; are now in qualification positions causing to drop off. On the women’s side; are in and are out.
 
Table Tennis
The qualification document was released along with the Singapore Smash. Relative to my estimations a few changes occurred. Quota changes include losing men’s quotas. They are replaced by :MDA. On the women’s side, are replaced by .

Should have participated in more U12, U15, U18, and U23 tournaments. Not sure why, but they all contribute points to the SENIOR World Ranking list

defeated  77-64. Africa may have two entrants at the World Cup if things follow as expected.