JoshMartini007

They've already become a factor. If it wasn't for them, the Liberals would have been destroyed in the coming election, now they have a chance at winning. For the upcoming election, their best strategy is to keep quiet, especially in regards to annexation and tariffs or else their preferred party, the Conservatives will lose. Also while Carney never held office, we was the former governor for the bank of Canada and in the UK.

I guess China is mostly out of baseball

There would need to be a minimum standard for any tripartite spots or else you risk getting someone killed

I mean those were always the top 3 favourites. All this indirectly says is Coventry is probably out.

Congrats really happy for them. I hope can get it together, it would be weird not to see them at the WBC

I think Canada is in a good enough position to take the last quota as long as we show up to the final events

Yeah, not looking good for despite the win today.

Women's Downhill Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Sofia Goggia 29% 16% 10% 55% 2 Ester Ledecka 13% 13% 11% 37% 3 Federica Brignone 11% 12% 10% 34% 4 Cornelia Huetter 11% 12% 9% 32% 5 Lara Gut-Behrami 6% 8% 9% 23% 6 Lauren Macuga 8% 6% 8% 21% 7 Breezy Johnson 5% 6% 6% 18% 8 Corinne Suter 5% 6% 7% 18% 9 Laura Pirovano 3% 4% 4% 10% 10 Marta Bassino 1% 4% 5% 10% Women's Super-G Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Federica Brignone 28% 19% 13% 60% 2 Lara Gut-Behrami 23% 17% 16% 56% 3 Sofia Goggia 22% 18% 12% 53% 4 Lauren Macuga 8% 12% 12% 32% 5 Kajsa Lie 5% 7% 9% 21% 6 Cornelia Huetter 3% 5% 10% 18% 7 Stephanie Venier 3% 6% 7% 16% 8 Elena Curtoni 2% 4% 6% 13% 9 Marta Bassino 2% 4% 6% 12% 10 Ester Ledecka 1% 2% 2% 5% Women's Giant Slalom Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Federica Brignone 36% 21% 11% 68% 2 Alice Robinson 20% 18% 16% 53% 3 Sara Hector 16% 16% 11% 43% 4 Paula Moltzan 6% 7% 9% 23% 5 Julia Scheib 7% 6% 8% 22% 6 Zrinka Ljutic 4% 6% 7% 16% 7 Thea Stjernesund 3% 5% 7% 15% 8 Lara Colturi 2% 5% 7% 13% 9 Lara Gut-Behrami 2% 4% 5% 11% 10 Nina O'Brien 1% 3% 5% 9% Women's Slalom Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Wendy Holdener 24% 15% 10% 50% 2 Mikaela Shiffrin 18% 15% 14% 46% 3 Camille Rast 14% 14% 12% 40% 4 Zrinka Ljutic 12% 13% 12% 37% 5 Lena Duerr 7% 7% 8% 21% 6 Melanie Meillard 4% 6% 7% 17% 7 Katharina Liensberger 4% 6% 6% 16% 8 Paula Moltzan 4% 4% 7% 15% 9 Anna Swenn Larsson 4% 4% 6% 14% 10 Emma Aicher 3% 4% 5% 12% Women's Combined Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Lara Gut-Behrami 32% 20% 13% 66% Wendy Holdener 2 Lauren Macuga 25% 19% 15% 58% Mikaela Shiffrin 3 Corinne Suter 16% 18% 15% 49% Camille Rast 4 Cornelia Huetter 11% 13% 15% 39% Katharina Liensberger 5 Breezy Johnson 6% 10% 11% 26% Paula Moltzan 6 Kira Weidle-Winkelmann 5% 8% 12% 25% Lena Duerr 7 Malorie Blanc 3% 5% 6% 14% Melanie Meillard 8 Sofia Goggia 0% 2% 3% 5% Martina Peterlini 9 Ilka Stuhec 1% 1% 1% 3% Andreja Slokar 10 Mirjam Puchner 1% 1% 2% 3% Katharina Huber

Here's the first update of my medal predictor for alpine events using results up to the World Championships. - As per Olympic rules, only the four best athletes per nation are currently considered in the simulation (until NOC confirms who is competing or an athlete is ruled out of the Olympics due to injury/ban/etc.) - For the combined event, I just took the best performing athletes from each nation in the downhill and slalom events and simulated their combined performance. I then proceeded with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best athletes for the nation (if applicable) - Each event is simulated 1000 times and the medalists counted. Eventually I plan to do a 10,000x simulations for more robustness, but as I may still tweak the formula I don't want to waste processing time each time I run the simulation. - While I did include the chance for an athlete to DNF the race it is currently a flat rate for all athletes. This currently benefits certain athletes which are well known to DNF races more often than expected. Overall, this showcases the unpredictability of the sport and the accuracy difficulties predictors like GraceNote have when listing only the top 3. Looking at the percentages, for many of the events you'd actually only expect 1/3 to actually medal more often than not. I want to create predictors for the other sports so I will only update this periodically. Men's Downhill Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Marco Odermatt 18% 13% 11% 42% 2 Franjo Von Allmen 17% 12% 10% 39% 3 Alexis Monney 11% 10% 8% 29% 4 Miha Hrobat 9% 9% 7% 25% 5 Cameron Alexander 8% 9% 7% 24% 6 Vincent Kriechmayr 7% 5% 8% 19% 7 Dominik Paris 5% 6% 7% 18% 8 Justin Murisier 6% 5% 6% 18% 9 Daniel Hemetsberger 4% 4% 4% 12% 10 James Crawford 3% 4% 4% 11% Men's Super-G Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Marco Odermatt 30% 16% 11% 57% 2 Stefan Rogentin 11% 11% 10% 32% 3 Raphael Haaser 10% 9% 11% 30% 4 Vincent Kriechmayr 7% 11% 10% 28% 5 Fredrik Moeller 7% 10% 10% 27% 6 Franjo Von Allmen 7% 7% 7% 21% 7 Mattia Casse 8% 6% 7% 20% 8 Cameron Alexander 6% 5% 6% 16% 9 James Crawford 4% 4% 4% 13% 10 Dominik Paris 2% 3% 4% 9% Men's Giant Slalom Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Marco Odermatt 22% 12% 10% 45% 2 Alexander Steen Olsen 15% 13% 9% 37% 3 Loic Meillard 11% 11% 8% 30% 4 Henrik Kristoffersen 8% 9% 9% 25% 5 Thomas Tumler 5% 7% 7% 19% 6 Zan Kranjec 4% 5% 5% 14% 7 Luca De Aliprandini 4% 5% 5% 14% 8 Lucas Pinheiro Braathen 4% 4% 6% 14% 9 Stefan Brennsteiner 3% 5% 6% 14% 10 Atle McGrath 4% 5% 5% 13% Men's Slalom Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Clement Noel 31% 16% 9% 55% 2 Atle McGrath 11% 13% 10% 33% 3 Henrik Kristoffersen 11% 11% 9% 31% 4 Timon Haugan 8% 9% 10% 27% 5 Loic Meillard 8% 10% 8% 26% 6 Manuel Feller 8% 8% 9% 24% 7 Linus Strasser 5% 5% 8% 19% 8 Lucas Pinheiro Braathen 5% 6% 7% 18% 9 Fabio Gstrein 3% 3% 5% 11% 10 Kristoffer Jakobsen 2% 3% 5% 10% Men's Combined Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Marco Odermatt 29% 16% 12% 57% Loic Meillard 2 Nils Allegre 20% 15% 12% 46% Clement Noel 3 Vincent Kriechmayr 13% 13% 12% 37% Manuel Feller 4 Franjo Von Allmen 9% 12% 10% 31% Daniel Yule 5 Alexis Monney 6% 8% 8% 22% Tanguy Nef 6 Daniel Hemetsberger 6% 7% 9% 21% Fabio Gstrein 7 Dominik Paris 4% 6% 6% 15% Alex Vinatzer 8 Adrian Sejersted 3% 6% 5% 15% Atle McGrath 9 Fredrik Moeller 3% 4% 6% 12% Henrik Kristoffersen 10 Cyprien Sarrazin 2% 3% 4% 9% Steven Amiez

He probably did more to remind people that they were suppose to boo.

You're probably correct, but we should wait until she or the NOC confirms it.

I believe only six nations, have enough NHL players to field full teams, any other nation would need to use players from other leagues (also who knows what the status of Russia will be by then). The article did mention they are looking to Europe to host games so maybe the NHL will leverage that nation's domestic league to release their players.

I'm attempting to create a medal projector for the 2026 Olympics. Instead of just listing the top 3 favourites I wanted to give a percentage athletes have to win a medal. My first events completed were downhill, here are the top 10. Men's Downhill Athlete Gold Silver Bronze Total Marco Odermatt 17% 14% 10% 41% Franjo Von Allmen 17% 11% 9% 37% Alexis Monney 10% 9% 9% 28% Miha Hrobat 8% 9% 8% 25% Cameron Alexander 7% 9% 7% 23% Vincent Kriechmayr 7% 7% 6% 20% Justin Murisier 6% 7% 6% 19% Dominik Paris 5% 5% 6% 16% Daniel Hemetsberger 5% 4% 5% 14% James Crawford 3% 4% 5% 12% Women's Downhill Athlete Gold Silver Bronze Total Sofia Goggia 27% 15% 12% 54% Ester Ledecka 13% 11% 9% 33% Cornelia Huetter 12% 11% 8% 31% Federica Brignone 11% 12% 11% 34% Lauren Macuga 9% 9% 8% 26% Lara Gut-Behrami 6% 8% 9% 23% Breezy Johnson 5% 7% 7% 19% Corinne Suter 5% 7% 6% 18% Laura Pirovano 2% 3% 5% 10% Marta Bassino 2% 3% 4% 9% In order to prevent my computer from dying I only ran the simulation 1000 times so no tenth of a percentage is listed. For nations with many athletes I just took the four highest ranked athletes as per event rules and removed the rest. Eventually as NOCs announce their teams I can refine it properly. Any surprises?

High respect for . I love that they are expanding their sport repertoire.

Yeah, at this point it would be quite difficult for the IIHF to allow Russia to compete. Bach seems content to let the next IOC president decide how to handle Russia/Belarus so we might get an overall decision (full ban, AIN again or full return) for the 2026 Winter Olympics in the summer. I don't think IIHF is going to delay the decision any more so unless they have some internal memos from the other winter sports organizations preparing to welcome Russia/Belarus back then I figure they will decline Russia's teams.

If they weren't already, Italy is establishing itself as a top 4 European NOC, not that there was a lot of competition. It'd be more interesting to see if they can bridge the gap between themselves and Ireland and Netherlands.

They also predicted a total of 130 gold, 135 silver and 141 bronze medals. The 2026 Winter Olympics only has 116 events

It doesn't help that there are essentially four nations ( ) competing for medals with maybe the likes of being competitive in a few events. Others may get lucky with a bronze due to lack of competition.

It's been impressive seeing Portugal going from not qualifying for 18 years to hanging and beating some of the top nations. Let's see if this becomes more than just a second golden age.

Speaking for myself, it is a bit daunting to think of nominations from nothing. Some kind of "long list" suggestion would be nice, but the work to come up with something like 30-50 options for each category would be quite onerous on the host/committee.

Thank you so much for hosting. Really appreciate it.

While I agree the difference between sex in shooting is minimal any move to create an open event would kill the sport for women. Unlike in equestrian where a significant amount of women compete, shooting will likely return to a very male dominant sport.

Another quarterfinal loss...

Euro 2020 had to deal with COVID and all of its restrictions, but it did showcase that there are diminishing returns for hosting in a large number of cities and in multiple countries. The Olympics are already held outside of the host city for some sports. 2024 had 8 sports held partially or entirely outside of Paris. Is it really that crazy to have those sports clustered together in a second (or maybe third) area?

Yeah, I'm not entirely opposed of different host cities, but 24 hours of sports is not a good idea. Keep it to the 16-18 hour days.