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JoshMartini007

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Everything posted by JoshMartini007

  1. If Nigeria can get a swimming pool, they might be competitive. CGF has been wanting an African host for a while
  2. Greenland is an autonomous region so it's a bit different. Denmark sends money, but it isn't a blank cheque.
  3. That's why they only offered 750 points to the winner as an initial compromise. If you were the 4th/5th best player in your nation and were not selected due to NOC limits and you cared about points you would be better off competing at a different event at the same time. With a depleted field you'd likely earn more points there anyway. It was more because ATP/WTA tournaments held at the same time were losing out on players and thus attendance for the tournaments were low.
  4. I hope it was a typo and they mean mixed doubles. Unless they bring back ranking points (they should regardless) I imagine the team event will be sparsely attended. I just hope players declining to participate won't spread to the singles/doubles events.
  5. I know they want to minimize travel, but I really wish they would mix the Americas and Asia countries. I want to see them compete against each other.
  6. So here are the difference between 2024 and 2028 and my opinions: Aquatics In swimming the 50m backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were added while the women's water polo tournament will now have 12 teams. Additionally, 11 men's athlete quotas were transferred to the women's side. In general, I'm okay with the 50m events and despite women's water polo having shallow depth I am happy they are now equal to the men. The IOC still wanting to keep the core sport quotas to 10,500 is a bit ridiculous, but I'll go into that at the end. While the athlete split isn't shown for the disciplines it's quite likely swimming loses 11 men and women quotas each (maybe they might take a couple from diving/marathon swimming). Archery Mixed compound team was added. I've been a big supporter for compound archery being added to the Olympics. Unfortunately the individual events were not added which I dislike. If you are going to have athletes in team event then they can also compete in the individual. I would like to imagine World Archery is slowly bringing the event in. Since no new athlete quotas were added recurve will have fewer archers competing. I imagine recurve will be a 48-52 person tournament. Athletics Mixed marathon walk relay was removed, mixed 4x100m relay was added. I feel the program has become worse with this change. Not that I felt the walk relay is important, it's not and I wish we would get the 35/50km walk, but at least it preserved some race walk. The mixed 4x100m relay adds nothing extra to the program. This will be repeated a few times, but a mixed event should not be added with the gender component unless if fundamentally changes the event. There's no need to have both a men's/women's and a mixed 4x100m relay. Basketball The 3x3 events will be a 12 team tournament. The athlete quota has increased by 32. Great move. It was ridiculous that the event only had 8 teams so the increase was much needed. Honestly, if we weren't stuck on the 10,500 athlete limit I wouldn't mind seeing 16 teams. Boxing Women saw an increase of one event, equaling that of men (7 each). The weight limits of each category was slightly adjusted. Equaling the event size between genders was expected and I'm glad they decided to increase the women's count rather than reducing the men. The women's athlete quota remains the same despite the event increase, but still remains the same as the men. Football The men's tournament was reduced to 12 teams, the women's tournament increased to 16 teams. I'm glad the women's tournament is up to 16 teams. The qualification system for Europe has been brutal and I imagine Asia will be happy too. I wished they didn't reduce the men's tournament, but the 10,500 athlete quota limit forces them to do so. Ultimately, I agree with the move as the women's tournament is more prestigious. Golf Mixed team was added. I await the chosen format, but ultimately I think it's a good idea to have the event. Gymnastics Mixed artistic team was added. What a weird event. As mentioned before since the men's and women's team remain this is a useless event that doesn't need to included. Modern pentathlon The athlete quotas has been reduced by 8 (4 men and 4 women). This was likely done to reach the 10,500 quota limit. Overall I dislike it, but it's not the end of the world. Rowing Lightweight double sculls have been removed. Coastal single sculls and coastal mixed double sculls have been added. I'm not familiar with coastal sprint canoe, but from what I've seen in videos I think it will be a nice event to have. Losing lightweight double sculls is a bit of a shame and I'm not sure I would make that trade given that coastal rowing isn't well developed yet. Shooting Mixed team skeet was removed, mixed team trap was added. The mixed team shotgun events continue to be cycled. Considering they don't use any additional quotas, I don't see why they don't just have both at the Olympics. Sport climbing The combined event was removed and replaced by separate lead and bouldering events. 8 additional athlete quotas were added. Finally the sport has its proper individual events. I still commend the strategy of going with the combined event in 2020 as a type of Trojan horse with the idea that the IOC will want to keep it. Table tennis The men's and women's team events were removed. Men's and women's doubles and mixed team were added. As a person who likes doubles table tennis I am happy with this change. To keep the athlete quota consistent mixed team is almost necessary. Tennis Mixed doubles was removed. Mixed event was added. While I wasn't a big fan of the mixed doubles event (it's barely played during the ATP/WTA calendar, I don't think we need it replaced by a mixed event. The format hasn't been revealed, but I imagine it would be similar to the Davis/BJK Cup format. My fear is if they're attempting to add the event to the second week as I imagine many players will opt-out. LA Only Sports Baseball/Softball, Cricket, Flag Football, and Lacrosse will be 6-team tournaments and Squash will have 32 athletes (16 men, 16 women). While expected, I am very disappointed that the team sports will only have six teams. You can't showcase the sport really well with such few entrants. Cricket is a great example, there are many smaller nations which play the sport, but we are likely to see only the large nations compete. Squash only having 16 athletes is also a bit small, but it's at least manageable. Final Thoughts Some good, some bad moves overall. I need to stress that the 10,500 athlete limit among core sports while increasing the number of events is not sustainable. The 2000 Olympics had around 10,600 athletes yet only had 300 events. We now have 341 core events, an increase of 14%. Even if you want to argue that there was bloat in 2000, the 2024 Olympics had 327 core events, meaning we had an increase of 4% yet no new athlete quotas. While some of these new events don't need more athletes, some of them do. Honestly at minimum the athlete quota for core events needs to be increased to 11,000 while more realistically we should be closer to 12,000. If the IOC doesn't want that many athletes then they need to remove events/sports.
  7. Good start for Canada. Cuba seems to be our biggest threat. Unlike the men, the United States women don't seem to be progressing. Still a few years until the Olympics.
  8. Pretty much. As much as some people hate the fact the men's tournament is u23, the bottom line is it still makes the IOC a lot of money. Likely the most out of any sport.
  9. Yeah it doesn't look like the Netherlands has set a standard for nordic combined yet. Mostly because they weren't expecting anyone to qualify. See here. Once they find out about him, I believe they will then set the standard.
  10. A bit of an overlap between video games and real life, Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3+4 is set to release in July. As per the previous remaster, new skaters will be added. So far, the following have been announced: Rayssa Leal Chloe Covell Jamie Foy Zion Wright Nyjah Huston Yuto Horigome Source
  11. Yeah unless they do something crazy like give AFC/CAF/CONCACAF/CONMEBOL one spot each (maybe give AFC/CONMEBOL a second additional quota) and Europe +12 then we are going to see a lot of weak teams
  12. They've already become a factor. If it wasn't for them, the Liberals would have been destroyed in the coming election, now they have a chance at winning. For the upcoming election, their best strategy is to keep quiet, especially in regards to annexation and tariffs or else their preferred party, the Conservatives will lose. Also while Carney never held office, we was the former governor for the bank of Canada and in the UK.
  13. I guess China is mostly out of baseball
  14. There would need to be a minimum standard for any tripartite spots or else you risk getting someone killed
  15. I mean those were always the top 3 favourites. All this indirectly says is Coventry is probably out.
  16. Congrats really happy for them. I hope can get it together, it would be weird not to see them at the WBC
  17. I think Canada is in a good enough position to take the last quota as long as we show up to the final events
  18. Yeah, not looking good for despite the win today.
  19. Women's Downhill Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Sofia Goggia 29% 16% 10% 55% 2 Ester Ledecka 13% 13% 11% 37% 3 Federica Brignone 11% 12% 10% 34% 4 Cornelia Huetter 11% 12% 9% 32% 5 Lara Gut-Behrami 6% 8% 9% 23% 6 Lauren Macuga 8% 6% 8% 21% 7 Breezy Johnson 5% 6% 6% 18% 8 Corinne Suter 5% 6% 7% 18% 9 Laura Pirovano 3% 4% 4% 10% 10 Marta Bassino 1% 4% 5% 10% Women's Super-G Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Federica Brignone 28% 19% 13% 60% 2 Lara Gut-Behrami 23% 17% 16% 56% 3 Sofia Goggia 22% 18% 12% 53% 4 Lauren Macuga 8% 12% 12% 32% 5 Kajsa Lie 5% 7% 9% 21% 6 Cornelia Huetter 3% 5% 10% 18% 7 Stephanie Venier 3% 6% 7% 16% 8 Elena Curtoni 2% 4% 6% 13% 9 Marta Bassino 2% 4% 6% 12% 10 Ester Ledecka 1% 2% 2% 5% Women's Giant Slalom Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Federica Brignone 36% 21% 11% 68% 2 Alice Robinson 20% 18% 16% 53% 3 Sara Hector 16% 16% 11% 43% 4 Paula Moltzan 6% 7% 9% 23% 5 Julia Scheib 7% 6% 8% 22% 6 Zrinka Ljutic 4% 6% 7% 16% 7 Thea Stjernesund 3% 5% 7% 15% 8 Lara Colturi 2% 5% 7% 13% 9 Lara Gut-Behrami 2% 4% 5% 11% 10 Nina O'Brien 1% 3% 5% 9% Women's Slalom Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Wendy Holdener 24% 15% 10% 50% 2 Mikaela Shiffrin 18% 15% 14% 46% 3 Camille Rast 14% 14% 12% 40% 4 Zrinka Ljutic 12% 13% 12% 37% 5 Lena Duerr 7% 7% 8% 21% 6 Melanie Meillard 4% 6% 7% 17% 7 Katharina Liensberger 4% 6% 6% 16% 8 Paula Moltzan 4% 4% 7% 15% 9 Anna Swenn Larsson 4% 4% 6% 14% 10 Emma Aicher 3% 4% 5% 12% Women's Combined Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Lara Gut-Behrami 32% 20% 13% 66% Wendy Holdener 2 Lauren Macuga 25% 19% 15% 58% Mikaela Shiffrin 3 Corinne Suter 16% 18% 15% 49% Camille Rast 4 Cornelia Huetter 11% 13% 15% 39% Katharina Liensberger 5 Breezy Johnson 6% 10% 11% 26% Paula Moltzan 6 Kira Weidle-Winkelmann 5% 8% 12% 25% Lena Duerr 7 Malorie Blanc 3% 5% 6% 14% Melanie Meillard 8 Sofia Goggia 0% 2% 3% 5% Martina Peterlini 9 Ilka Stuhec 1% 1% 1% 3% Andreja Slokar 10 Mirjam Puchner 1% 1% 2% 3% Katharina Huber
  20. Here's the first update of my medal predictor for alpine events using results up to the World Championships. - As per Olympic rules, only the four best athletes per nation are currently considered in the simulation (until NOC confirms who is competing or an athlete is ruled out of the Olympics due to injury/ban/etc.) - For the combined event, I just took the best performing athletes from each nation in the downhill and slalom events and simulated their combined performance. I then proceeded with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best athletes for the nation (if applicable) - Each event is simulated 1000 times and the medalists counted. Eventually I plan to do a 10,000x simulations for more robustness, but as I may still tweak the formula I don't want to waste processing time each time I run the simulation. - While I did include the chance for an athlete to DNF the race it is currently a flat rate for all athletes. This currently benefits certain athletes which are well known to DNF races more often than expected. Overall, this showcases the unpredictability of the sport and the accuracy difficulties predictors like GraceNote have when listing only the top 3. Looking at the percentages, for many of the events you'd actually only expect 1/3 to actually medal more often than not. I want to create predictors for the other sports so I will only update this periodically. Men's Downhill Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Marco Odermatt 18% 13% 11% 42% 2 Franjo Von Allmen 17% 12% 10% 39% 3 Alexis Monney 11% 10% 8% 29% 4 Miha Hrobat 9% 9% 7% 25% 5 Cameron Alexander 8% 9% 7% 24% 6 Vincent Kriechmayr 7% 5% 8% 19% 7 Dominik Paris 5% 6% 7% 18% 8 Justin Murisier 6% 5% 6% 18% 9 Daniel Hemetsberger 4% 4% 4% 12% 10 James Crawford 3% 4% 4% 11% Men's Super-G Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Marco Odermatt 30% 16% 11% 57% 2 Stefan Rogentin 11% 11% 10% 32% 3 Raphael Haaser 10% 9% 11% 30% 4 Vincent Kriechmayr 7% 11% 10% 28% 5 Fredrik Moeller 7% 10% 10% 27% 6 Franjo Von Allmen 7% 7% 7% 21% 7 Mattia Casse 8% 6% 7% 20% 8 Cameron Alexander 6% 5% 6% 16% 9 James Crawford 4% 4% 4% 13% 10 Dominik Paris 2% 3% 4% 9% Men's Giant Slalom Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Marco Odermatt 22% 12% 10% 45% 2 Alexander Steen Olsen 15% 13% 9% 37% 3 Loic Meillard 11% 11% 8% 30% 4 Henrik Kristoffersen 8% 9% 9% 25% 5 Thomas Tumler 5% 7% 7% 19% 6 Zan Kranjec 4% 5% 5% 14% 7 Luca De Aliprandini 4% 5% 5% 14% 8 Lucas Pinheiro Braathen 4% 4% 6% 14% 9 Stefan Brennsteiner 3% 5% 6% 14% 10 Atle McGrath 4% 5% 5% 13% Men's Slalom Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Clement Noel 31% 16% 9% 55% 2 Atle McGrath 11% 13% 10% 33% 3 Henrik Kristoffersen 11% 11% 9% 31% 4 Timon Haugan 8% 9% 10% 27% 5 Loic Meillard 8% 10% 8% 26% 6 Manuel Feller 8% 8% 9% 24% 7 Linus Strasser 5% 5% 8% 19% 8 Lucas Pinheiro Braathen 5% 6% 7% 18% 9 Fabio Gstrein 3% 3% 5% 11% 10 Kristoffer Jakobsen 2% 3% 5% 10% Men's Combined Rank Nation Name Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Marco Odermatt 29% 16% 12% 57% Loic Meillard 2 Nils Allegre 20% 15% 12% 46% Clement Noel 3 Vincent Kriechmayr 13% 13% 12% 37% Manuel Feller 4 Franjo Von Allmen 9% 12% 10% 31% Daniel Yule 5 Alexis Monney 6% 8% 8% 22% Tanguy Nef 6 Daniel Hemetsberger 6% 7% 9% 21% Fabio Gstrein 7 Dominik Paris 4% 6% 6% 15% Alex Vinatzer 8 Adrian Sejersted 3% 6% 5% 15% Atle McGrath 9 Fredrik Moeller 3% 4% 6% 12% Henrik Kristoffersen 10 Cyprien Sarrazin 2% 3% 4% 9% Steven Amiez
  21. He probably did more to remind people that they were suppose to boo.
  22. You're probably correct, but we should wait until she or the NOC confirms it.
  23. I believe only six nations, have enough NHL players to field full teams, any other nation would need to use players from other leagues (also who knows what the status of Russia will be by then). The article did mention they are looking to Europe to host games so maybe the NHL will leverage that nation's domestic league to release their players.
  24. I'm attempting to create a medal projector for the 2026 Olympics. Instead of just listing the top 3 favourites I wanted to give a percentage athletes have to win a medal. My first events completed were downhill, here are the top 10. Men's Downhill Athlete Gold Silver Bronze Total Marco Odermatt 17% 14% 10% 41% Franjo Von Allmen 17% 11% 9% 37% Alexis Monney 10% 9% 9% 28% Miha Hrobat 8% 9% 8% 25% Cameron Alexander 7% 9% 7% 23% Vincent Kriechmayr 7% 7% 6% 20% Justin Murisier 6% 7% 6% 19% Dominik Paris 5% 5% 6% 16% Daniel Hemetsberger 5% 4% 5% 14% James Crawford 3% 4% 5% 12% Women's Downhill Athlete Gold Silver Bronze Total Sofia Goggia 27% 15% 12% 54% Ester Ledecka 13% 11% 9% 33% Cornelia Huetter 12% 11% 8% 31% Federica Brignone 11% 12% 11% 34% Lauren Macuga 9% 9% 8% 26% Lara Gut-Behrami 6% 8% 9% 23% Breezy Johnson 5% 7% 7% 19% Corinne Suter 5% 7% 6% 18% Laura Pirovano 2% 3% 5% 10% Marta Bassino 2% 3% 4% 9% In order to prevent my computer from dying I only ran the simulation 1000 times so no tenth of a percentage is listed. For nations with many athletes I just took the four highest ranked athletes as per event rules and removed the rest. Eventually as NOCs announce their teams I can refine it properly. Any surprises?
  25. High respect for . I love that they are expanding their sport repertoire.
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