RussB

As a small note, great to see GB ladies finish 1-2 in the European U18s 1500m this morning (Belshaw with a 4m 13 PB) and that's without Phoebe competing who would have blown the field away. Middle-distance running in GB is enjoying such a bright period and the future looks very promising.

Relative to previous Games i absolutely do. If they are in the race and can get on the shoulder then relays are not just a pure time trial, see 1991 worlds for prime example. ps. I'd still have US as firm favs just to be clear.

It is just bad timing for him. To be fair I don’t think anyone was flagging this as a miss by the selectors when they announced the team, Sam has knocked over a second off his PB and unfortunately really made many members of the selected relay squad look pedestrian. Still in case anyone goes down with a niggle now, he is there to be swapped in! A 4x4 team of MHS, Dobson, Reardon and Carvell would be seriously threatening to the US.

No one seemed to mention the time Phoebe ran off a much slower pace at trials. She still ran a 1m 58 and didn’t weaken one iota and didn’t get the benefit of drafting for most of the race. My prediction right now: 1) Keely 2) Phoebe 3) Moraa but how incredible would it be if the Brits could clean sweep. Never thought I’d ever see that in an Olympics athletics event.

I tend to agree although it was interesting to hear Phoebe’s tactics at trials were not to front run as we have seen her do when setting her 1m 57. My gut tells me Phoebe can do something really special in Paris in a fast race where she doesn’t have to lead all 2 laps. The Brits would be suited by Moraa going out hard, Phoebe taking over when she slows with 400 to go and Keely and Reekie making their moves in last 200.

I don't think Amber is even a genuine medal shot at this point given how the event has moved on in the last few months, I hope she can make the final but there are clearly a few ahead of her by a fairly significant margin. Charlie I think is an outside medal shot, but it really is an outside chance given Matt and Quincy at the top end that look like the stand-alones. For me: GOLD shots ( definite medals) = Kerr, Molly, Keely, MHS Likely medals = Gill +/or Reekie, Bell or Muir, W 4x1, M 4x1 W4x4 M 4x4, KJT (but not gold) Outside shots of minor medals = mixed relay (OK could be moved up with selection), Burgin / Pattinson, Dobson, Dina (200), Zharnel/Hinchliffe (100) & agree about Holly due to the event not being particularly strong this year + nature of pole vault. I was trying to formulate an argument for a really outside bet in Cindy Semper. Currently ranked only 19th but she is likely just too far away time-wise from the podium despite the surprising hurdles results you get from pressure races occasionally. I think of those outside shots, if we get 2 of those that would be incredible.

I don’t really get the half in/out approach. I.e putting Laviai and then one of Charlie or Amber in plus one other. I doubt that team is good enough to medal but you also burn a few matches for later on in the meet. Matt for all intensive purposes should be taken out of the equation because of individual hopes. But for the rest of the team I’d want to see either an all in approach (with flex to add one of our big guns into the final) or put the above team in to just see how they do.

We have debated the relays quite a bit on these forums, and as we approach the games I think the problem is regarding the mixed relay that Amber and Charlie both have a realistic prospect of individual finals AND a medal in the sole sex relays. At this point I’d be really disappointed if we don’t medal in both the men’s and women’s 4x4 relays, plus an individual medal for Matt. is it really fair for them to jeopardise that Olympic outcome by adding another 1 or 2 races (for one of them due to the 1 sub rule) for the mixed? GB will have to make a call on it, but i feel the team is leaning into preserving everyone for indiv finals shots and the sole sex relays towards the end of the meet. I shouted loudly on here we should go all in for gold on the mixed relay, but I do appreciate the significant impact this could have On the rest of the programme

Somewhat doesn’t quite feel like the world is going to be quaking in their boots with that lineup. on a broader point; I have no idea how “official” these entry lists are relays ( for swimming as well as athletics). We are seeing more and more but I’d hope they are acting as placeholders…

It's the nature of the pole vault. There is a fair degree of variability in performance, but her medal chances would have to be a fair bit more than 50% if someone was to model it accurately. The 800m was interesting, Reekie can essentially get towed along behind Keely and stay relatively close (which I wasn't expecting). Could it be possible the Brits go 1-2-3...Mary will have a big say but after watching that race today, maybe its not a complete impossibility. Great form for Bell as well going into the 1500m.

I believe so. Not sure if any nominated reserves were formally declared. on the women’s side, a sub 50 for laviai and Amber, with Vicky going 50.76. A solid win for YMJ in a 51.16 rounds out the women’s form team for the relay in addition to Jessie and Lina. I have no idea who they will “burden” with the mixed relay, although I think the decision to preserve Matt is becoming more justified. Would be interested if they still go with Amber Charlie and 2 others in a final (if they get there) to give them a shot at a medal

Who do you think is dropping out? Toby has been complaining of a back issue today, but seems like a minor issue. That 44.7 is startling. Selectors must be absolutely gutted on him not being part of the 4x4 squad which is a genuine threat to the US with Matt and Charlie.

Based on what exactly? The only consistent performer is Kennedy. Behind her you have Moser (whose form closely aligns with Molly), Katie Moon who this year is most definitely out of form and then a bevy of McCartney / Murta etc who have hardly been setting the world alight. Now she was 5/4 favourite when markets opened i saw this week, which I agree should be lengthened and Kennedy I'd probably have as slight favourite, but to predict her not medalling in Paris is an over reaction.

And Bulgaria medley relay providing the comedy for the day with a changeover out of the zone, the outgoing runner then decides to cut from lane 8 into lane 7 to run the bend 🤣

Rather exciting 3000m this morning; great start for GB with Katie taking gold On the line!

horrific mistake but wow the kid is fast. 16y old has run a 20.5?!! I'll forgive him this once in a lifetime fail and look forward to his future

Does this mean she rides the time trial? I'm still not clear how all of the quotas can get shuffled and combined, sure it will come out in the wash!

The man is an alien.

My guess would be Neah rides the omnium but at this point we are guessing. Madison should be Evans and barker though definitely.

I will say your responses to my posts across threads and sports have been uniformly negative. Some fall under the reasonable bracket of debate (which these forums should encourage and is absolutely fine) whereas others, and I include this entire back and forth within this category, fall under the "splitting hairs for the sake of splitting hairs" class. It's honestly making me want to stop posting, unlike the enjoyable interactions with other members of this community (McEvoy, CB, Rafa) where there is disagreement ofc, but it's not disagreement for the sake of disagreement or to try and put another poster in their place. I have no idea what I have done personally to you to irk such responses, but the net result is tempting me to not bother contributing, which I imagine is the opposite to what the founders / admins / keen users of the team GB forums are trying to engender.

Let's be fair, my response was also to say agree to disagree. And yet you continued the argument. And still have not let it lie after I've tried to draw a line under it.

For gods sakes man, really? For the sake of my sanity (and anyone else reading) please can someone raise another more interesting topic as I think we have discussed Tom Dean’s chances of getting a bronze to death 🤣

By that logic your argument is even more inconsistent by assuming Dean will not only recapture form from 12 months ago, but probably have to exceed this … And I’m not sure how my view that Duncan will beat Tom is in any way illogical. Duncan beat Tom at trials in 3 separate events including the 200 IM, he beat Tom in the event at the 2023 World’s and in general has looked the faster swimmer over the past 12 months. I’m not sure what basis you’d have for making a logical argument that Tom would be favoured to finish ahead of Duncan in Paris. It is a clear and incontrovertible fact that Duncan has a better chance of medalling than Tom in Paris given the info that we have. there are no guarantees in sport… that’s why we watch it!! We are talking about small percentages either way. We agree to disagree. As usual.

apples and oranges... I have more faith in what I would view as up-and-coming racers in Paris (Ollie and Angharad) as they are showing me huge drops in time through 2024, despite the heavy training blocks. Again we have to be careful with expectations management, I do not expect Ollie or Angharad to medal in Paris; BUT I view their chances as being greater than Tom in the 200 IM mainly due to the competition at the top end of the event, and I've not seen anything this year from Tom that tells me he is going to swim 1m 55 low or better which is what will be needed to medal. He will either need to beat both Americans, and Wang (and anyone else I've neglected to mention), or knock-off either Marchand or Duncan in addition to all but 1 of the first list of guys. My view is that this is unlikely, so remains an outside chance for me, which I would love to see come in. But yes my personal slant is to give the swimmers who are clearly in PB form and rising through the ranks a greater shot in general because their ceiling is less defined. Furthermore specifically in regards to this games, I don't think the top end of the 100m W breast is as clearly defined and competitive as the men's 200 IM.

Certainly respect but given the form he has showed so far in 2024, I don’t think it’s a fair expectation to put him ahead of the guys I already mentioned just on basis of 2023 world's