How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (2021 "A" version)

[Makedonas 2,155]

8 minutes ago, LDOG said:

This will be the first time since I follow games that we will go with nothing but outside chances. Very grim looking. It's also telling that it's pretty much the same people that had chances 5 years ago, only that older and in decline. We haven't been able to develop a single new world class athlete. Even Chile has bigger chances than us, embarassing.

If it makes you feel better, Argentina is an elite nation in football. Many other nations would give up every other sport to be in Argentina's position in football 

[LDOG 2,418]

12 minutes ago, Makedonas said:

If it makes you feel better, Argentina is an elite nation in football. Many other nations would give up every other sport to be in Argentina's position in football 

We're not even top 8 anymore but that's a debate for another day  anyway, I care more about olympics than about football since many years ago.

[Dragon 1,844]

On 12/04/2021 at 05:07, thiago_simoes said:

Who would you pick for these three medals? I'm just curious.

Whitlock, Taeja James and Dominic Cunningham

[Dragon 1,844]

I'll give an example of how hard it is to predict some medals.

Christina Hammer of Germany has been a world professional boxing champion for 10 years.

Earlier this year she decided to try to qualify for the Olympics. Immediately she becomes  a hot favourite for a medal.

Then the final qualifier get cancelled and she has no chance to qualify for Tokyo.

[heywoodu 15,145]

9 minutes ago, Dragon said:

I'll give an example of how hard it is to predict some medals.

Christina Hammer of Germany has been a world professional boxing champion for 10 years.

Earlier this year she decided to try to qualify for the Olympics. Immediately she becomes  a hot favourite for a medal.

Then the final qualifier get cancelled and she has no chance to qualify for Tokyo.

But the same goes for your post before, about the three Olympic medalists. That would be counted as 'three possible medals', but when they are supposed to come from only three people, it's more realistic for that to result in one or two medals  (let's say all three have a 60% medal chance, it'd be likely to get 1 or 2 then)

 

Increase the scale to the total medals for countries with dozens of participants with at least a small medal chance and things get incredibly tricky  

[phelps 7,677]

11 hours ago, intoronto said:

@phelpsI think you forgot about the 200m back in swimming

yeah, and also the women's 200m free (this one was intentional, I'm going for all the the superstitious rituals on that )...

 

however, I think it's only an outside chance for bronze...Regan Smith and Kaylee McKeown are out of reach...add a surprising newcomer (there are always some at the olympics) and the podium is dead and gone...

 

and I also hope to see another 1 or 2 of our youngsters (or even veterans) overperforming and getting a pair of unexpected medals, but obviously I didn't include that kind of expectations in my prediction...

[Dragon 1,844]

9 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

But the same goes for your post before, about the three Olympic medalists. That would be counted as 'three possible medals', but when they are supposed to come from only three people, it's more realistic for that to result in one or two medals  (let's say all three have a 60% medal chance, it'd be likely to get 1 or 2 then)

 

Increase the scale to the total medals for countries with dozens of participants with at least a small medal chance and things get incredibly tricky  

All I can say it that, in 2012, I predicted 15 gold medals for GBR and they won 29. In Rio I predicted 17 and  they won 27.

I hope I'm not too biased. 

[heywoodu 15,145]

2 minutes ago, Dragon said:

All I can say it that, in 2012, I predicted 15 gold medals for GBR and they won 29. In Rio I predicted 17 and  they won 27.

I hope I'm not too biased. 

I'm curious what I prediced in the past few Olympics (I know I did 2018 and 2016, probably also 2014 but I'm not sure about that one), I'll take a look when I'm at home  

[OlympicsFan 858]

11 hours ago, NMQ said:

Right now i´m pessimistic for , all our teams/athletes with medal chances are either a mistery or not in their best form, or compete in events that are hard to predict. All in all, I´d say something between 1-3. Our most realistic chances for a medal would be:

 

Field hockey: women´s team should be our best shot this time, they just played their first couple official games in one year so it´s hard to judge their level, but I think they are favourites to medal unlike the last time. On the opposite, the men are the current champions, but the cycle has been a mess and I don´t think they will repeat the podium.

 

Football (men): impossible to know, depends a lot on the names that can play and even then it´s kinda random. But the team will be more prepared than in Rio, that´s for sure. 

 

Judo (women´s 48 Kg): final olympic tournament por Paula Pareto. She won´t be a medal favourite this time I think, but she´s in the mix and with her experience and a good draw can make it happen. 

 

Sailing (Nacra17): current olympic champions, don´t think they are favourites for a medal again, but who knows, this one is very hard to guess.

 

Smaller chances, but if all the planets align:

 

Basketball (men): yeah, the team was the finalist in the last world cup, but that performance will be very hard to repeat and competition will be harder. I don´t see it happening.

 

Rugby (men): not a medal favourite, but definitely a team that can be in the final 8. And if on the other side there´s no Fiji, then there´s a chance. 

 

Swimming (1500m women´s freestyle): if Pignatiello somehow peaks and throws a PB, it´s a slow race and one of Ledecky/Quadarella/Wang/Li/Kohler gets ill or something, then maybe... But won´t happen.

 

Taekwondo (men´s 58 Kg): a later addition after posting, Guzmán won bronze in the last world championship, but no idea about his form now.

 

Tennis: if the tournaments have random results, who knows, especially in doubles. Maybe Zeballos/Gonzalez (men) or Zeballos/Podoroska (mixed) can make some noise. 

 

The rest I don´t know (men´s volleyball?) or it´s too random (shooting?) or just won´t happen. 

 

I think one of them having an off day wouldn’t be enough. At least 3 of them would need to have an off day (if you consider them better than Pignatiello on a normal day).

[OlympicsFan 858]

10 hours ago, intoronto said:

There is two medals after too lol....

Yes and McKeown is a lock for another one, so there is only 1 medal left for the 2nd American, Atherton, the two Canadians and Panziera.