How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026？

[Topicmaster1010 6,322]

25 minutes ago, Josh said:

66% chance for a medal in moguls seems low though...

 

Men's relay being 5th in short track, and Clarke only having a 0.5% chance at a medal also seem off

 

Why is ski mountaineering there, we didn't even qualify anyone 

The probability of winning a medal in the men's 500m also seems a bit off 

 

[thevorminatheria 6]

On 2/3/2026 at 4:56 AM, Topicmaster1010 said:

The probability of winning a medal in the men's 500m also seems a bit off 

 

1.6 medals for Canada in the men's 500m sound reasonable no? Dandjnou e Dubois can both easily medal, especially if they plan a team strategy

[Topicmaster1010 6,322]

2 hours ago, thevorminatheria said:

1.6 medals for Canada in the men's 500m sound reasonable no? Dandjnou e Dubois can both easily medal, especially if they plan a team strategy

Now I see how it works, thanks for clarifying. I thought it described the probability of a nation winning a medal in that event out of 100%

 

Great job on the site by the way. Very informative and good predictions!

[Surreal 30]

Done my prediction contest and I went with 11 medals for GBR including 7 Golds. Probably ambitious and unlikely for them to all go our way, but honestly, at least five of those Gold medalists are at minimum co-favourites in their events. Just shows how good a place we're in for these games.

 

A reminder that GBR's best previous medal haul at a Winter Olympics is 5 medals and we've never won more than one Gold at a single games. At the very least, we should beat that (hopefully I haven't just jinxed it for us).

[Fly_like_a_don 1,153]

Don't know if I get enough time for this but I'll be rooting for      

[Grassmarket 4,241]

3 hours ago, Fly_like_a_don said:

Don't know if I get enough time for this but I'll be rooting for      

Back in the day when  had nobody and nothing in most sports, I always used to go for  - still remember the Torino CC Sprint!

[avlar 565]

Finally here)))

 

 

About our chances

 

Tier E - No chances at all
Alpine Skiing, Cross Country, Nordic Combined, Figure Skating

We are absolutely nowhere in these sports right now. Marsak in FS is a talanted skater but he is not good enough righ now.


Tier D - Pure Miracle
Ski jumping, Short-track.

Sometimes miracles can happen )) So the chances are not 0.000000 but a lot of mistakes from the other competitors are needed.

 

Tier C - Close but...

Skeleton, Snowboarding

We have some strong results just near the podium in these sports at WC/WCH during 2 pre-Olympic seasons.
But the field is too strong.

 

Tier B - May happen... or not
Luge, Biathlon, Freeskiing

We won a medal in each of these sports during 2 pre-Olympic seasons.
But these medals were rather exceptions than the stable results. So it will be very difficult to repeat.
It will depend not only on our performance.

Tiear A - Hope
Aerials 

The only sports with several WC/WCH medals during 2 pre-Olympic seasons.
If we do our best it will mean a medal. But the sport is really risky and unpredictable.


So - 0/1 medal in total.
 

[Book 98]

On 1/28/2026 at 12:20 PM, Book said:

Someone has to tally USA up, I'll make it as short as I can.

Coming back to this to compare the pre-Olympics predictions to the actual results. Not saying I was a great predictor. I had some blind spots in sports that I didn't even list as a possibility . My predictions of 30 medals came short by 3. 
 

• Alpine Skiing: Predicted 3, Actual 4. 
  • Required the whole ski team to get this result. Each medal went to a unique athelte. I thought it would be Shiffrin's games, but she still got her piece of the gold pie.
• Bobsleigh: Predicted 1, Actual 3. 
  • Proud of predicting the monobob win, but 3 was the max number I thought possible. 
• Cross-Country Skiing: Predicted 3, Actual 3
  • Got the right number, but 2 men's medals was not the path I forsaw at all.
• Curling: Predicted 0, Actual 1
  • The legend of the Cory/Korey's will endure. I won't leave the sport off ever again.
• Figure Skating: Predicted 4, Actual 3
  • First under prediction. To be fair, everyone would have thought Ilia was a lock for at least a medal. The biggest miss of the games for the whole team but the best opportunity in the French Alps.
• Freestyle Skiing: Predicted 9, Actual 8
  • I didn't break down this prediction, but proud of the number. I came up with 9 just as +1 to the 2022 total with the addition of doubles mogul. Considering we got two medals in doubles mogul we did actually underperform in the men's events. 
• Ice Hockey: Predicted 2, Actual 2
  • Only thing I was off by was predicting the men's medal would be bronze. 
• Luge: Predicted 0, Actual 1
  • A very nice surprise
• Short Track: Predicted 0, Actual 1
  • At least I said there was a possibility here unlike Luge and Curling. An odd bronze was exactly where I saw this coming from.
• Skeleton: Predicted 1, Actual 0
  • Highest rank for the US here was 7th. I picked the wrong sled.
• Snowboard: Predicted 3, Actual 2
  • Fair to say the US is not a powerhouse in snowboarding any longer. I was almost right about Ollie Martin getting bronze in big air, but it was a different event the men got their bronze.
• Speed Skating: Predicted 4, Actual 5
  • I can't say I meant to predict Stolz missing a medal in the Mass Start, but I'll take it. I was exact other then Women's Mass Start.

 

33 in the end! I'd rather get some surprises then underperform expectations. If I did do a full medal by medal breakdown I'm sure I would have over predicted golds by a couple. I can think of 5 events (figure men, ice dance, women's board halfpipe, men's skate mass start, men's team pursuit) off the top of my head where US were favorites but didn't win. 

Only question left, 11 or 12 golds in the end? We'll see in the next few minutes.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Book