Summer Olympic Games 2016 Totallympics Predicted Medal Table

[heywoodu 15,145]

4 minutes ago, hukbrazil said:

By entering a country the symbols have to cover all the athletes of that country at the event?

 

For example, it seems fair to indicate Australia (Buchanan) for (*****), but I dont see Reynolds with the same favoritism. It would not be appropriate to put her in another classification?

 

Yes, the first option you mention is what I mean  

 

Since we're going for a total medal table, it's not so much about which individual athletes win the medal, but mostly about the total chances per nation per event. Let's just take a random example (don't mind the numbers, it's just an example):

 

Men's 100 meters

Bolt (JAM): 40% chance to win

Gatlin (USA): 40% chance to win

Gay (USA): 20% chance to win

 

This would result in Jamaica having 40% and USA having 60% chance to win, thus USA being above Jamaica (even though Gay has less chance than Bolt). 

 

So in short: Which athletes we predict isn't so important, the big thing is which nations we predict so we can get a total medal table. 

 

Edited June 25, 2016 by heywoodu

[LDOG 2,418]

Well, about all the predictions I made on the last page, my criteria was rating chances for a medal (any medal) each nation has in my view.

 

Five stars = over 70% chance to win a medal

Four = 50-70

Three = 30-50

Two = 10-30

One = 5-10

 

For example, In women's volleyball I put both Brazil and USA with 5 stars despite I consider Brazil to have bigger chance for gold. That's because I'm just rating their chances to win any of the three medals, not the gold.

 

[heywoodu 15,145]

8 minutes ago, LDOG said:

Well, about all the predictions I made on the last page, my criteria was rating chances for a medal (any medal) each nation has in my view.

 

Five stars = over 70% chance to win a medal

Four = 50-70

Three = 30-50

Two = 10-30

One = 5-10

 

For example, In women's volleyball I put both Brazil and USA with 5 stars despite I consider Brazil to have bigger chance for gold. That's because I'm just rating their chances to win any of the three medals, not the gold.

 

Well I think that's quite a good approach and actually it's basically the same approach I use 

 

For example take the women's 800m freestyle swimming. Katie Ledecky and so the USA has of course a huge chance to win the gold, but obviously she won't win all three medals  

 

Of course when people disagree (like we already saw about men's field hockey) we can find something in the middle because after all, it'll be a Totallympics team effort 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2016 by heywoodu

[hckošice 14,836]

Canoe Slalom -

 

Men's K1

 

* * * * France (Sebastien Combot), Czech Republic (Jiri Prskavec)

* * * Germany (Hannes Aigner), Slovenia (Peter Kauzer)

* * Great Britain (Joe Clarke), Slovakia (Jakub Grigar)

* Australia (Lucien Delfour), Russia (Pavel Eigel), USA (Michal Smolen)

 

Men's C1

 

* * * * Slovakia (Matej Benus), Germany (Sideris Tasiadis)

* * * Slovenia (Benjamin Savsek), Great Britain (David Florence)

* * Japan (Takuya Haneda), France (Denis Gargaud-Chanut)

* Russia (Aleksander Lipatov), USA (Casey Eichfeld), Canada (Cameron Smedley)

 

Men's C2

 

* * * * France (Klauss/Peche), Czech Republic (Kaspar/Sindler)

* * * Germany (Anton/Benzien), Slovenia (Taljat/Bozic)

* * Slovakia (Skantar/Skantar), Poland (Szczepanski/Pochwala)

* Great Britain (Florence/Hounslow), Russia (Kuznetsov/Larionov)

 

Women's K1

 

* * * * * Australia (Jessica Fox)

* * * * Spain (Maialen Chourraut), Czech Republic (Katerina Kudejova)

* * * Slovenia (Eva Tercelj), Brazil (Ana Satila)

* * Slovakia (Jana Dukatova), Germany (Melanie Pfeifer), Poland (Natalia Pacierpnik)

* France (Maria Zelia-Lafont), Great Britain (Fiona Pennie), Russia (Marta Kharitonova)

[intoronto 5,645]

4 minutes ago, hckosice said:

Canoe Slalom -

 

Men's K1

 

* * * * France (Sebastien Combot), Czech Republic (Jiri Prskavec)

* * * Germany (Hannes Aigner), Slovenia (Peter Kauzer)

* * Great Britain (Joe Clarke), Slovakia (Jakub Grigar)

* Australia (Lucien Delfour), Russia (Pavel Eigel), USA (Michal Smolen)

 

Men's C1

 

* * * * Slovakia (Matej Benus), Germany (Sideris Tasiadis)

* * * Slovenia (Benjamin Savsek), Great Britain (David Florence)

* * Japan (Takuya Haneda), France (Denis Gargaud-Chanut)

* Russia (Aleksander Lipatov), USA (Casey Eichfeld), Canada (Cameron Smedley)

 

 

 

Didn't expect a Canadian medal chance 

[hckošice 14,836]

3 minutes ago, intoronto said:

 

Didn't expect a Canadian medal chance 

 

you still must count in that in canoe slalom, especially in C1, very small entry list, harder track, stronger wind and a lot of favorites may have some serious troubles in the final race and miss gates, (look at womens K1 in Beijing 2008 ) it happened many times before, it´s also a reason why this sport is great, you never know what will happen, so in C1 I count on a slim chance also for Cameron

[Dolby 735]

On 24/06/2016 at 19:41, LDOG said:

Field Hockey - Men:

* * * * *  Australia, Netherlands

* * * *  Argentina, Belgium, Germany

* * *  Great Britain, India

* * New Zealand

* Spain

Interesting. I would have put Belgium alongside Australia/Netherlands. Rest I agree. 

[thiago_simoes 1,423]

Em 6/24/2016 at 10:44, Gianlu33 disse:

Rhythmic Gymnastic - Women's Individual All-Around:

* * * * *  Russia (Kudryavtseva and Mamun)

* * * Belarus (Staniouta or Halkina)

** Ukraine

* Israel (Rivkin or Filanovski)

 

Rhythmic Gymnastic - Women's Group All-Around:

* * * * *  Russia

*** Bulgaria

** Spain, Italy

* Israel, Belarus

 

@thiago_simoes you agree whit me?

 

Yes, I mostly agree.

Individual:
* * * * *  Russia (Kudryavtseva and Mamun)
* * * Belarus (Staniouta) and Ukraine (Rizatdinova)
* Georgia (Pazhava)

Group
* * * * *  Russia
* * * Belarus
* *  Israel, Italy, Spain
* Blugaria

[De_Gambassi 1,223]

Sur 24/06/2016 at 14:20 , heywoodu a déclaré:

Horrible idea? Best idea ever? Suggestions? 

 

What about going full retard here ?

 

Asking people to give a percentage by nation for each event to win a medal (obv, the total being equal to 300% or 400% for fighting sports). If we have multiple answers for the same event, just make an average.

 

Hopefully, at the end we could have answers for every events and thus a complete Totallympics medal table ready before the Games start

 

I can help for the excel bit if needed

[heywoodu 15,145]

4 minutes ago, De_Gambassi said:

 

What about going full retard here ?

 

Asking people to give a percentage by nation for each event to win a medal (obv, the total being equal to 300% or 400% for fighting sports). If we have multiple answers for the same event, just make an average.

 

Hopefully, at the end we could have answers for every events and thus a complete Totallympics medal table ready before the Games start

 

I can help for the excel bit if needed

 

That's basically exactly what I was thinking  

 

Although something like a system with stars is usually more "known" to people, so I used that as example as I think it's easier to understand for most people. I was planning on using that to create an Excel with percentages like you said and then coming up with a total result that shows both the total number of gold medals for every country and the total number of medals

 

I actually already have an Excel sheet with which I'm pretty sure I can do that