Alpine Skiing Discussion | Qualification to Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026

[erw 89]

7 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

Has anyone been keeping track of Olympic quotas by any chance?

 

Some guy on wikipedia has been attempting to keep track and has linked which athlete has met the requirements but I haven't had the time to go through each athlete. 

 

Assuming wikipedia is correct, then  UAE is set to make their Winter Olympic debut and  would return to the games after missing 2022.

This is written based on criteria applied to all National Olympic Committees (NOCs) with at least one male or female athlete who has a minimum FIS point of less than 120 for slalom (SL) and giant slalom (GS), or less than 80 for other events

[Topicmaster1010 5,821]

11 hours ago, erw said:

This is written based on criteria applied to all National Olympic Committees (NOCs) with at least one male or female athlete who has a minimum FIS point of less than 120 for slalom (SL) and giant slalom (GS), or less than 80 for other events

I know that. I was just wondering if any users on here have been keeping track of quotas since FIS likely won't make the qualification points list public until spring at the earliest. 

 

And judging by the lack of replies on here, it would seem like the answer is no unsurprisingly 

[heywoodu 16,279]

I had totally missed it, but Tereza Nova suffered a bad crash in training for the Garmisch downhill a bit over a week ago, and was kept in a coma. Can't find anything more recent, not sure that's a good sign or not...

[Grassmarket 4,156]

 earn a women's Alpine spot on FIS Points - although for the Nation, not the skier.

 

Alpine skiing-Brazil secure women's Olympic alpine skiing berth after 12 years

[heywoodu 16,279]

18 minutes ago, Grassmarket said:

 earn a women's Alpine spot on FIS Points - although for the Nation, not the skier.

 

Alpine skiing-Brazil secure women's Olympic alpine skiing berth after 12 years

Still odd that in alpine skiing one can still qualify through random races all over the world. Cross-country's system isn't perfect, but it at least mostly closed that loophole for fixed races after Project Bogota  

[JoshMartini007 2,813]

I'm attempting to create a medal projector for the 2026 Olympics. Instead of just listing the top 3 favourites I wanted to give a percentage athletes have to win a medal. My first events completed were downhill, here are the top 10.

 

Men's Downhill

Athlete	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
Marco Odermatt	17%	14%	10%	41%
Franjo Von Allmen	17%	11%	9%	37%
Alexis Monney	10%	9%	9%	28%
Miha Hrobat	8%	9%	8%	25%
Cameron Alexander	7%	9%	7%	23%
Vincent Kriechmayr	7%	7%	6%	20%
Justin Murisier	6%	7%	6%	19%
Dominik Paris	5%	5%	6%	16%
Daniel Hemetsberger	5%	4%	5%	14%
James Crawford	3%	4%	5%	12%

 

 

Women's Downhill

Athlete	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
Sofia Goggia	27%	15%	12%	54%
Ester Ledecka	13%	11%	9%	33%
Cornelia Huetter	12%	11%	8%	31%
Federica Brignone	11%	12%	11%	34%
Lauren Macuga	9%	9%	8%	26%
Lara Gut-Behrami	6%	8%	9%	23%
Breezy Johnson	5%	7%	7%	19%
Corinne Suter	5%	7%	6%	18%
Laura Pirovano	2%	3%	5%	10%
Marta Bassino	2%	3%	4%	9%

 

In order to prevent my computer from dying I only ran the simulation 1000 times so no tenth of a percentage is listed. For nations with many athletes I just took the four highest ranked athletes as per event rules and removed the rest. Eventually as NOCs announce their teams I can refine it properly.

 

Any surprises?

[Gianlu33 5,547]

20 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

I'm attempting to create a medal projector for the 2026 Olympics. Instead of just listing the top 3 favourites I wanted to give a percentage athletes have to win a medal. My first events completed were downhill, here are the top 10.

 

Men's Downhill

Athlete	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
Marco Odermatt	17%	14%	10%	41%
Franjo Von Allmen	17%	11%	9%	37%
Alexis Monney	10%	9%	9%	28%
Miha Hrobat	8%	9%	8%	25%
Cameron Alexander	7%	9%	7%	23%
Vincent Kriechmayr	7%	7%	6%	20%
Justin Murisier	6%	7%	6%	19%
Dominik Paris	5%	5%	6%	16%
Daniel Hemetsberger	5%	4%	5%	14%
James Crawford	3%	4%	5%	12%

 

 

Women's Downhill

Athlete	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
Sofia Goggia	27%	15%	12%	54%
Ester Ledecka	13%	11%	9%	33%
Cornelia Huetter	12%	11%	8%	31%
Federica Brignone	11%	12%	11%	34%
Lauren Macuga	9%	9%	8%	26%
Lara Gut-Behrami	6%	8%	9%	23%
Breezy Johnson	5%	7%	7%	19%
Corinne Suter	5%	7%	6%	18%
Laura Pirovano	2%	3%	5%	10%
Marta Bassino	2%	3%	4%	9%

 

In order to prevent my computer from dying I only ran the simulation 1000 times so no tenth of a percentage is listed. For nations with many athletes I just took the four highest ranked athletes as per event rules and removed the rest. Eventually as NOCs announce their teams I can refine it properly.

 

Any surprises?

I think that Ledecka will not compete in women's downhill in Cortina 

[JoshMartini007 2,813]

2 hours ago, Gianlu33 said:

I think that Ledecka will not compete in women's downhill in Cortina 

You're probably correct, but we should wait until she or the NOC confirms it.

[stepansevs 156]

On 2/4/2025 at 8:24 AM, heywoodu said:

I had totally missed it, but Tereza Nova suffered a bad crash in training for the Garmisch downhill a bit over a week ago, and was kept in a coma. Can't find anything more recent, not sure that's a good sign or not...

Still without change (information from 4 days ago) But it is induced coma.

[Topicmaster1010 5,821]

Had some time to check the work of whoever's been updating the alpine skiing olympic qualification page on wikipedia and I can confirm that the list is fully accurate.

 

So we officially have the following nations that have earned basic quotas. Remember that the basic quota is earned by an athlete who has

• an average result <= 80 points over the skier's best 2 downhill or super-g races during the qualification period
• an average result <= 120 points over the skier's best 5 giant slalom or slalom races during the qualification period

 

Basic quota for both men and women (50 nations):

 

Basic quota for men only (17 nations):

 

Basic quota for women only (4 nations):