Final Medal Predictions

[cjsavory 45]

The Sports Illustrated predictions are clearly garbage, but it's still quite interesting to go through them and be reminded of how many genuine medal prospects Team GB have. I was also struck by how bullish SI are about our final gold medal haul: 29 out of a total of 63, which feels very aggressive even to an optimist like me!

 

So with that in mind, I've made a full list of all the gold, silver and bronze medal predictions made for Team GB by SI, and I'm interested to hear from you all on the following three questions:

 

1. Which gold medal predictions will be wrong, and by how much)? (SI has us taking a LOT of golds in the velodrome and on the water...)

2. Which silver/bronze predictions will actually get gold? (SI is pretty bearish on some of our Swimming/Athletics medal hopes)  

3. Who's not mentioned here at all, but will ultimately get a medal? (Little-to-no representation on the list from Archery, Boxing, Hockey, Golf, Judo, Sport Climbing, Tennis, Weightlifting...)

 

Gold (29)

 

Joe Clarke (Men's Kayak Single)

Joe Clarke (Men's Kayak Cross)

Mallory Franklin (Women's Kayak Single)

Bethany Shriever (Women's BMX Racing)

Tom Pidcock (Men's Mountain Bike)

Josh Tarling (Men's Time Trial)

Emma Finucane (Women's Sprint)

Neah Evans/Elinor Barker (Women's Madison)

Women's Team Pursuit

Lottie Fry (Dressage)

Yasmin Ingham (Eventing) - not competing

Team Eventing

Jake Jarman (Men's Vault)

Bryony Page (Women's Trampoline)

Joe Choong (Men's Modern Pentathlon)

Oliver Wynne-Griffith/Tom George (Men's Pair)

Men's Four

Men's Eight

Emily Craig/Imogen Grant (Women's Lightweight Double Sculls)

Women's Quad Sculls

Women's Four

Emma Wilson (Women's Windsurfing)

Men's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay

Bradly Sinden (Men's -68kg)

Keely Hodgkinson (Women's 800m)

Katarina Johnson-Thompson (Heptathlon)

Alex Yee (Men's Triathlon)

Beth Potter (Women's Triathlon)

 

Silver (20)

 

Kimberley Woods (Women's Kayak Cross)

Kieran Reilly (Men's BMX Freestyle)

Charlotte Worthington (Women's BMX Freestyle)

Ethan Hayter/Oliver Wood (Men's Madison)

Men's Team Pursuit

Matty Lee/Noah Williams (Men's 10m Platform) - not competing

Yasmin Harper/Scarlet Mew Jensen (Women's 3m Springboard)

Andrea Spendolini-Sirieix/Lois Toulson (Women's 10m Platform)

Ben Maher (Jumping)

Max Whitlock (Men's Pommel Horse)

Michael Beckett (Men's Dinghy)

Ellie Aldridge (Women's Kiteboarding)

Anna Burnet/John Gimson (Mixed Multihull)

Seonaid McIntosh (Women's 50m Rifle 3P)

Sky Brown (Women's Park)

Ben Proud (Men's 50m Freestyle)

Adam Peaty (Men's 100m Breaststroke)

Matthew Hudson-Smith (Men's 400m)

Mixed 4x400m Relay

Triathlon Relay

 

Bronze (14)

 

Kimberley Woods (Women's Kayak Single)

Ethan Hayter (Men's Omnium)

Men's Team Sprint

Women's Team Sprint

Anthony Harding/Jack Laugher (Men's 3m Springboard)

Team Dressage

Team Jumping

Matt Richards (Men's 200m Freestyle)

Max Litchfield (Men's 400m IM)

Men's 4x100m Medley Relay

Bianca Cook (Women's +67kg)

Josh Kerr (Men's 1500m)

Women's 4x100m Relay

Molly Caudery (Women's Pole Vault)

Edited July 23, 2024 by cjsavory

[RussB 189]

I’ll start the ball rolling on the golds front; we are not winning gold in the 4x1 mixed medley relay. Women’s team pursuit without KA is a stretch, KJT isn’t beating Thiam from what we’ve seen, and Lottie Fry is defo a clear 2nd fav in the dressage.

 

lots of very optimistic shouts in their including the canoe slalom (!), Jess fox is the prohibitive fav over Mallory for example.

 

i think the rowing might be quite accurate, although a little nervous for the men’s 4 vs the USA.

 

on the other hand many of that silver list I have projected to win gold:

Peaty (Qin in 2024 hasn’t hit the highs he did last year), K Woods, Max on pommel, men’s team pursuit and MHS.

 

I think a gold number around the 25 mark isn’t impossible, but that’s possibly with my homer hat on. Losing CDJ today definitely hurts the tallies a little bit.

[TeamGB 216]

I saw this this morning and it did return a bit of optimism after a hard few weeks, but I think the news today may have extinguished that flame. I think sometimes it is easy to focus on the negatives but we are still taking an extremely stacked squad. Gracenote predicts 6 golds in rowing and it isn't exactly unreasonable we get 3 in triathlon, Finucane can still do the treble, 4/4 in Taekwondo and 6 in canoe Slalom (thats 22 already), with strong medal chances in almost all sports we are competing in. 

 

Obviously most if not all of these scenarios won't happen, but there is still enough going on to be excited about. I agree 29 golds is on the higher end of expectations but you never know.

 

For your questions:

1) I can't really see a medal in the Mixed Medley relay, let alone gold. It is easy to get swept away given the scale of the Tokyo win but watching that race back the whole team swum 'perfectly', and they way the team looks this year our strengths aren't as beneficial for the relay. I hope I'm wrong but I have a feeling Jarman may fall on vault.

 

2) Men's team pursuit, (they looked really good at the Europeans), MHS (after London), and women's 4x100m relay (Really strong in London with definite room for improvement, and with the Jamaicans not looking as good this year).

 

3) Delicious Orie (No boxing medals as predicted would be a disaster), men's hockey, Chelsie Giles.

[cjsavory 45]

1 hour ago, RussB said:

I’ll start the ball rolling on the golds front; we are not winning gold in the 4x1 mixed medley relay. Women’s team pursuit without KA is a stretch, KJT isn’t beating Thiam from what we’ve seen, and Lottie Fry is defo a clear 2nd fav in the dressage.

 

lots of very optimistic shouts in their including the canoe slalom (!), Jess fox is the prohibitive fav over Mallory for example.

 

i think the rowing might be quite accurate, although a little nervous for the men’s 4 vs the USA.

 

on the other hand many of that silver list I have projected to win gold:

Peaty (Qin in 2024 hasn’t hit the highs he did last year), K Woods, Max on pommel, men’s team pursuit and MHS.

 

I think a gold number around the 25 mark isn’t impossible, but that’s possibly with my homer hat on. Losing CDJ today definitely hurts the tallies a little bit.

Yes, I'd add Sky Brown, Ben Proud, Triathlon Mixed Relay, and Josh Kerr to the potential gold list. I also think there are more medals in the pool - Matt Richards as a bronze in the Men's 200m Freestyle, when both he and Duncan Scott feel like legit contenders for gold/silver, also stood out. 

[cjsavory 45]

1 hour ago, TeamGB said:

I saw this this morning and it did return a bit of optimism after a hard few weeks, but I think the news today may have extinguished that flame. I think sometimes it is easy to focus on the negatives but we are still taking an extremely stacked squad. Gracenote predicts 6 golds in rowing and it isn't exactly unreasonable we get 3 in triathlon, Finucane can still do the treble, 4/4 in Taekwondo and 6 in canoe Slalom (thats 22 already), with strong medal chances in almost all sports we are competing in. 

 

Obviously most if not all of these scenarios won't happen, but there is still enough going on to be excited about. I agree 29 golds is on the higher end of expectations but you never know.

 

For your questions:

1) I can't really see a medal in the Mixed Medley relay, let alone gold. It is easy to get swept away given the scale of the Tokyo win but watching that race back the whole team swum 'perfectly', and they way the team looks this year our strengths aren't as beneficial for the relay. I hope I'm wrong but I have a feeling Jarman may fall on vault.

 

2) Men's team pursuit, (they looked really good at the Europeans), MHS (after London), and women's 4x100m relay (Really strong in London with definite room for improvement, and with the Jamaicans not looking as good this year).

 

3) Delicious Orie (No boxing medals as predicted would be a disaster), men's hockey, Chelsie Giles.

Emily Campbell also goes in ranked #3 in her weightlifting division, I fancy Tommy Fleetwood to go close to a medal in the Men's Golf, and I think there are more possibilities in Judo and (especially) Taekwondo. 

[RussB 189]

Popovici in the 200m free makes gold very very difficult (1m 42 time is I think beyond our boys). I think Evans, Colbert, Lichfield can snatch bronzes in the pool and relays will depend a lot on form of Jimmy doing fly and Peaty’s level.

 

Emma in my predictions does the treble, the women’s sprint should be nailed on for min silver.

 

jake falling is unfortunately very likely with his higher difficult vault. I’ve seen him utterly nail it once in competition, a fall, and a couple of times with huge steps. He will go for it in the final (if qualifies) and we just have to hope he nails it.

 

one sport I have very little firm expectations on; nor have I seen others be definitive is an old GB strength of sailing. Interested to see how we do with the new line up of boat classes.

 

Ive said repeatedly I’m very confident in the rowing. Bookmakers have us odds on / clear favs in; mens 4, men’s 8, pair, women’s 4, women’s 4x, women’s LWD. Add in medal chances in the women’s 8 and men’s 4x (an outside chance in women’s pair) and that’s a powerful team.

[Orangehair43 315]

I’m more confident in sports that race based than those with a high degree of error rate like gymnastics. 

[Orangehair43 315]

16 minutes ago, cjsavory said:

Emily Campbell also goes in ranked #3 in her weightlifting division, I fancy Tommy Fleetwood to go close to a medal in the Men's Golf, and I think there are more possibilities in Judo and (especially) Taekwondo. 

Gold is like tennis where 15 or more could win medals and not shock anyone. 

[c_j 0]

Toby Roberts has a good chance at a medal in the men's Boulder & Lead Sport Climbing event. Bronze if I had to guess. Erin McNiece a distant shot at a podium in the women's. Molly Thompson-Smith and Hamish McArthur also compete in the 20 strong finals and anything can happen, will be worth a watch 

Edited July 23, 2024 by c_j

[George_D 1,638]

6 golds in rowing is exaggeration