Boxing at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Ogreman 355]

Boxing Olympic predictions part two (W50kg,W57kg)

 

 

Part one (W54,W60,M63.5,M80) are on the previous page. Seedings in the table at the top of each weightclass. My rankings in brackets.

 

W50kg

 

Gold- Buse Cakiroglu (1) , Silver- Nikhat Zareen (2) , Bronze- Wassila Lkhadiri (9) , Bronze- Ingrit Valencia (8) .

 

	Seedings
1	Wu Yu (CHN)	8	Chuthamat Raksat (THA)
2	Roumaysa Boualam (ALG)	7	Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA)
3	Buse Cakiroglu (TUR)	6	Jennifer Lozano (USA)
4	Caroline de Almeida (BRA)	5	Monique Suraci (AUS)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Nikhat Zareen (2) .

 

Probably the highest quality bracket of any division at these games. This one is ludicrously stacked and had you told me these two last 16 fights were the semi finals and I would have believed you. Anyway poor Maxi Kloetzer (17) , who could not have got a worse draw from her perspective. Twice world champion Nikhat should beat her comfortably. Then we get to the interesting fights Asian champion and 52kg world champion Wu Yu (3)  meets Nikhat (2) who has not quite been in the form that won her world titles in 2022 and 2023. This one is impossible to call but to my eyes Nikhat is marginally the better boxer. The other last 16 sees Asian bronze medallist Chuthamat Raksat (5)  meet recent Strandja champion Sabina Bobokulova (4)  (where she beat Wu and Nikhat). Bobokulova is a bit scrappy and wild for my liking but her recent form is better than the rapid Raksat and I would pick her to win here. To illustrate how close this bracket is both Bobokulova and Raksat have won their most recent fight against Nikhat and lost their most recent matchup with Wu. Having said all that, I personally do think Nikhat is the oh so marginally best boxer of the group and I’m not going to overthink this and will back her despite those recent defeats.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Ingrit Valencia (8) .

 

This second bracket is also very tricky to predict although nowhere near as high quality as the first bracket. Multi time European medallist Giordana Sorrentino (6)  has a tricky enough opener against 2022 Asian medallist Nazym Kyzaibay (14) .  The other last 32 fight sees two of the bigger flyweights multi time world medallist Ingrit Valencia face Yesugen Oyuntsetseg (13) . The winner would then face the smaller but powerful Monique Suraci (12) . Another world medallist and Panam champion Caroline de Almeida (11)  awaits for Sorrentino. De Almeida is solid but her punches are a bit one dimensional. Valencia should really beat Suraci but who she then faces could be crucial. She has had the better of the matchup with Sorrentino over the last couple of years but lost to De Almeida at last year’s Panam games. Both Sorrentino and Valencia have cases to be the pick here and De Almeida shouldn’t be discounted but I am going to pick the veteran Colombian.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Buse Cakiroglu (1) .

 

On paper this should be a cakewalk for 2022 world champion Buse Cakiroglu. Laura Fuertes (15)  is not guaranteed to beat the largely unknown quantity Fatima Herrera (21) . Meanwhile, Pihla Kaivo Oja (18)  should easily beat universality qualifier Margret Tembo (22)  although Tembo is not the easiest of opponents. Jennifer Lozano (20)  is the Panam silver medallist but is very inaccurate and Lozano vs Kaivo oja will not be a high quality fight. None of these boxers will get close to challenging Cakiroglu.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Wassila Lkahdiri (9) .

 

The last bracket is an interesting one. Aira Villegas (10)  should beat Yasmina Mouttaki (19)  first up before what should be a closer fight with African champion Roumaysa Boualam (16) . Boualam will test Villegas but Villegas should win. The big fight here is the other last 16 fight with a rematch of a European games quarter final between Daina Moorehouse (7)  and world bronze medallist Wassila Lkhadiri. Lkhadiri narrowly took that fight on the narrowest of split decisions but Moorehouse is young and still improving. For me Moorehouse is now the better boxer but I just can’t see this fight not being close and if its close the benefit of the doubt will likely go to the home boxer. Villegas will await the winner in what should also be a really close fight. Any of those 3 boxers could medal from this bracket.

 

Medal Fights

 

Nikhat Zareen (2)  vs Ingrit Valencia (8) , Buse Cakiroglu (1)  vs Wassila Lkahdiri (9) .

Regardless of who comes out of brackets 1,2 and 4 these semi-finals should be fairly predictable with Buse Cakiroglu winning and Nikhat/Wu/Bobokulova beating Ingrit Valencia. In this case we end up with a final between Buse Cakiroglu and Nikhat and while Nikhat did win this fight when they met in Strandja in 2022, Cakiroglu is the much safer pick here.

 

Gold- Buse Cakiroglu , Silver- Nikhat Zareen , Bronze- Wassila Lkhadiri , Bronze- Ingrit Valencia .

 

 

W57kg

 

Gold- Lin Yu-ting (1) , Silver- Nesthy Petecio (2) , Bronze- Jucielen Romeu (6) , Bronze- Karina Ibragimova (5) .

 

	Seedings
1	Lin Yu-ting (TPE)	8	Svetlana Staneva (BUL)
2	Tina Rahimi (AUS)	7	Karina Ibragimova (KAZ)
3	Amina Zidani (FRA)	6	Valeria Arboleda (COL)
4	Jucielen Romeu (BRA)	5	Khouloud Hlimi (TUN)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Lin Yu-ting (1) .

 

So 2022 world and current Asian champion Lin Yu-ting starts off this tournament as a very marginal favourite. She will have an easy enough fight to open up against Sitora Turdibekova (19)  assuming Turdibekova can beat Marcelat Sakobi (20) . Given their respective experience, it is remarkable Michaela Walsh (8)  and Svetlana Staneva (4)  have not met before. Staneva is reigning European champion and on current form should be a comfortable winner but Walsh could upset things if she can refind her form. Lin has beaten Staneva at world championships last year so while I would expect a couple of close fights, this bracket should just go to form and that is Lin.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Jucielen Romeu (6) .

 

Panamerican champion Romeu is the comfortable pick of the bunch here although she has not yet gotten over the line at a global championships. She will face the winner of a close fight between Alyssa Mendoza (15)  and counterpuncher Mijgona Samadova (13) . Mendoza has been very inconsistent but has a higher ceiling than Samadova. On the other side of the bracket Esra Yildiz (9)  should be able to comfortably beat Marine Camara (21)  but the agile back foot Khouloud Hlimi (18)  could provide some resistance. I think Romeu would be a solid favourite against Yildiz.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Nesthy Petecio (2) .

 

Irma Testa (3)  could make me look very silly for not picking her to win gold as she is world champion but Nesthy Petecio took this matchup in the Olympic semi-final in Tokyo and is the more accurate punch picker of the two. Petecio has to navigate a reasonably awkward opener against the taller Jaismine (11)  before a huge fight against European champion Amina Zidani (7) . Zidani is not as good as that title suggests and I trust Petecio to produce when it counts. Irma Testa also doesn’t have the easiest of openers against the solid Xu Zichun (10)  but Valeria Arboleda (17)  is unlikely to trouble her. This should all set up a quarter final between Testa and Petecio and without any conviction whatsoever I am going to back Petecio.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Karina Ibragimova (5) .

 

This bracket is on paper by far the most straightforward with two time world medallist Karina Ibragimova the massive favourite to medal here. There should be quite a close last 32 fight between Omailyn Alcala (12)  and Julia Szeremeta (14) . Either should be too good for Tina Rahimi (22) . Ibragimova has to beat the aggressive Ashleyann Lozada (16)  and either Alcala or Szeremeta but is comfortably the pick here

 

Medal Fights

 

Lin Yu-ting (1)  vs Jucielen Romeu (6) , Nesthy Petecio (2)  vs Karina Ibragimova (5) .

 

Two high quality fights here but Lin has beaten Romeu before and this might be the ceiling for Romeu. Petecio vs Ibragimova is an interesting style mismatch but for me Petecio is just comfortably the better boxer and Ibragimova would struggle against Petecio’s power. Lin and Petecio both have wins and losses against each other but I’m going to cheat slightly and pick Lin as she is the safer pick to get this far.

 

Gold- Lin Yu-ting , Silver- Nesthy Petecio , Bronze- Jucielen Romeu , Bronze- Karina Ibragimova . 

[Ogreman 355]

Olympic Predictions (W66kg, W75kg)

 

W66kg

 

Gold- Busenaz Surmeneli (1) , Silver- Yang Liu (3) , Bronze- Grainne Walsh (7) , Bronze- Nien Chin Chen (4) .

 

	Seedings
1	Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR)	8	Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA)
2	Yang Liu (CHN)	7	Oshin Derieuw (BEL)
3	Barbara dos Santos (BRA)	6	Morelle McCane (USA)
4	Marissa Williamson (AUS)	5	Imane Khelif (ALG)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Busenaz Surmeneli (1) .

 

High quality last 32 fight to open up this bracket with Aneta Rygielska (5)  taking on Rosie Eccles (8) . I think this matchup should suit the rangy counterpuncher in Rygielska but I certainly would give Eccles a real shot here. Reigning Olympic and 2022 world champion Busenaz Surmeneli awaits the winner. She beat both on her way to her winning European games last year but Rygielska has beaten her before and as Surmeneli is not the tallest she is often vulnerable to counterpunchers with longer reaches. The other last 16 fight sees the powerful Brigitte Mbabi (17)  meet 2 time world medallist Janjaem Suwannepheng (10) . Suwannepheng should prevail there but from Surmeneli’s perspective the Rygielska or Eccles fight is really where this medal will be decided.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Grainne Walsh (7) .

 

So the quarter final here looks a near certainty to be 2022 63kg world silver medallist Imane Khelif (2)  against Grainne Walsh. Walsh has two handy enough fights against Luca Anna Hamori (18)  and Marissa Williamson (20) , while Imane Khelif should be much too good for Angela Carini (14) . Other than the very controversial manner in which Khelif was denied the 2023 world title, her two biggest fights in her career so far have been losses to Irish boxers. Kellie Harrington  in a Tokyo Olympic quarter final and Amy Broadhurst / in the 63kg world final in 2022 so there would be something almost poetic about this if Grainne Walsh was to become the third different Irish boxer to deny Khelif glory. That said Grainne Walsh is a very different boxer to Harrington’s stylish counterpunching or Amy Broadhurst’s precision and power. Walsh is a much more front foot aggressive boxer which could play into Khelif’s height and reach advantage. While the Grainne Walsh Amy Broadhurst selection controversy had mostly quietened down after their respective second world qualifier performances, they will make a return if a boxer Broadhurst comfortably beat is the one to deny Walsh an Olympic medal. Maybe I’m biased with this pick but I’m backing Walsh.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Nien Chin Chen (4) .

 

This is the most open of these brackets in this division. Former world champion Nien Chin Chen opens up the bracket against the aggressive but very undersized Maria Moronta (15)  where I can only see one winner. That would set up a massive fight with Panamerican champion Barbara dos Santos (6) . Chen and dos Santos are both solid boxers and this fight will come down to how effectively Chen can get on the inside and unleash her power advantage. Morelle McCane (9)  is a solid but flawed boxer although that should still be enough to beat Navbakhor Khamidova (16) . She lost to Dos Santos in the final of Panam games and I feel like Chen would get the better of her as well.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Yang Liu (3) .

 

This final bracket has a clear cut favourite in world champion Yang Liu but should still throw up some interesting fights. Veteran pro and European silver medallist Oshin Derieuw (12)  has an interesting opening test against the universality qualifier but somewhat successful Ivanusa Moreira (19) . The last 32 fight in this bracket sees recent European medallist Jessica Triebelova (13)  match up with 2022 70kg world silver medallist Alcinda dos Santos (11) . To be honest, I quite like Triebelova’s chances there although Dos Santos is more proven. The winner would then face Yang who is far from unbeatable and doesn’t move particularly well. That said she is the class of this particular bracket and should come through.

 

Medal Fights

 

Busenaz Surmeneli (1)  vs Grainne Walsh (7) , Nien Chin Chen (4) vs Yang Liu (3) .

These are two interesting fights, As successful as Surmeneli has been she is far from a shoe in here and whether it is Walsh or Khelif they will both potentially cause her problems. The default expectation though is that she will win. Yang has had the better of the head to head with Chen in recent years but Chen deserved to beat Yang at Asian games last year. Given their prior fights had also gone Yang’s way she will start as marginal favourite. Surmeneli would be favoured to beat Yang though, albeit Yang would have a significant reach advantage.

 

Gold- Busenaz Surmeneli , Silver- Yang Liu , Bronze- Grainne Walsh , Bronze- Nien Chin Chen .

 

W75kg

 

Gold- Tammar Thibeault (1) , Silver- Qian Li (3) , Bronze- Aoife O’Rourke (2) , Bronze- Caitlin Parker (7) .

 

	Seedings
1	Qian Li (CHN)	8	Michael de Trindade (BRA)
2	Aoife O'Rourke (IRL)	7	Atheyna Bylon (PAN)
3	Tammara Thibeault (CAN)	6	Davina Michel (FRA)
4	Khadija El Mardi (MAR)	5	Caitlin Parker (AUS)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Qian Li (3) .

 

I do think this is one of the more predictable divisions but this top bracket should at least throw up some interesting matchups. 2022 70kg world youth champion Sunniva Hofstad (8)  is an impressive but not quite yet fully developed up and coming talent. She will provide a stern opening test for the reigning world champion Lovlina Borgohain (5) . Olympic silver and Asian champion Qian Li has an easier fight against Hergie Bacyadan (15) . Li and Borgohain have met 3 times over the last year with Lovlina’s only win coming in India in the semi-final of worlds last year. Li is the better boxer of the two and I would be surprised if she doesn’t win here.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Caitlin Parker (7) .

 

By far the weakest bracket. Both opening fights should be quite straightforward. Citlalli Ortiz (16)  is better than she looks and picks her shots well but world silver medallist Caitlin Parker should be too skilled for her. I know Khadija El Mardi (9)  is technically a world champion (81+kg) but I have seen this perception of her as one of the favourites here and guys she is far from it. She should be able to overcome the much smaller Chantelle Reid (13)  but there is a medal here for Caitlin Parker if she wants it.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Tammara Thibeault (1) .

 

Canada vs a refugee athlete doesn’t typically stand out as being a great boxing match but this could be one of the fights of the games. Cindy Ngamba (4) has looked in great form since narrowly losing to Aoife O’Rourke at European games last year. Tammara Thibeault is 2022 world champion and for me has been the most impressive W75kg boxer of this cycle. Thibeault will have a significant height and reach advantage but Ngamba has shown an ability to overcome that against other boxers. I would expect Thibeault to win but it may well be close. The other fight here sees experienced Davina Michel (10)  face young Baison Manikon (14)  but Thibeault vs Ngamba will decide the medal here.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick-Aoife O’Rourke (2) .

 

I was quite nervous about Aoife’s chances here before the draw despite her 27-1 record this Olympic cycle but this is a straightforward draw. She has beaten Elzbieta Wojcik (12)  on four straight occasions although Wojcik kept it very close at European games. Atheyna Bylon (6)  should be too good for Valentina Khalzova (11)  on the other side of the bracket. Bylon and O’Rourke met in the final of Strandja in 2022 where O’Rourke ran out a comfortable winner. She tends to make her fights tougher than they need to be though so I’m sure this will be unnecessarily close.

 

Medal Fights

 

Qian Li (3) vs Caitlin Parker (7) , Tammara Thibeault (1)  vs Aoife O’Rourke (2) .

 

Qian Li will be way too good for whoever comes out of the second bracket. The Thibeault O’Rourke fight could be a cracker but while I would love O’Rourke to win I just think Thibeault is the more complete boxer. I think either Thibeault or O’Rourke would beat Li in a potential final.

 

Gold- Tammar Thibeault , Silver- Qian Li , Bronze- Aoife O’Rourke , Bronze- Caitlin Parker .

[Ogreman 355]

Olympic Predictions (M51kg, M57kg)

 

M51kg

 

Gold- Hasanboy Dusmatov (1) , Silver- Billal Bennama (3) , Bronze- Amit (5) , Bronze- Nijat Huseynov (10) .

	Seedings
1	Bilal Bennama (FRA)	8	Michael de Trindade (BRA)
2	Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB)	7	Samet Gumus (TUR)
3	Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM)	6	Thitisan Panmot (THA)
4	Junior Alcantara (DOM)	5	Yusuf Chothia (AUS)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Billal Bennama (3) .

 

So despite what others in this thread have tried to claim. No France did not get easy draws. About half of their boxers got tough draws and half of them got good draws. This for example is a tough draw when it was possible if not likely multi time European champion and two time world medallist Billal Bennama would have a fairly easy path to the medal fights. Instead he faces 2021 world silver medallist Roscoe Hill (4)  in the last 16 assuming Hill beats Omid Ahmadisafa (16) . Both Hill and Bennama’s form has been questionable of late with both suffering recent surprise defeats and style wise they are quite similar as well. Both look to box on the outside and are effective on the move and they may well cancel each other out so while I wouldn’t expect it to be a great spectacle, it should be one of the best fights in this division.

 

Alejandro Claro (6)  just has to navigate a fight with Michael de Trindade (15)  to await the winner of Bennama vs Hill. Claro is not quite in the top tier of boxers in this division and would have been hoping for a better draw. Hill edged past Claro at Panam games, Hill deserved to win but did not deserve the 10-8 final round one of the judges awarded him to flip the outcome of the fight. Bennama on the other hand faced Claro in  Cuba vs France match earlier this year. Claro technically won but only because the fight was in Cuba with Cuban judges. Bennama deserves to be favourite here but both Hill and Claro will fancy their chances and I expect 2 very close fights here.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Nijat Huseynov (10) .

 

Flyweight had some surprise qualifiers, some as a result of shock results, a couple as a result of weak brackets and some just a consequence of the parity in this weight class but the consequence of these is that flyweight lacks that many top tier medal contenders and it was always possible we get a bracket like this where my highest ranked boxer is 10^th. This one is tough to predict though. The fight I am very willing to call is 2022 world youth bronze medallist Rafa Lozano Jr (11)  against Yusuf Chothia (17) , with the Spaniard being a comfortable favourite.

 

Both Nijat Huseynov and Junior Alcantara (13)  upset Roscoe Hill in quota fights and having both gone into their respective fights as massive underdogs. Nijat Huseynov is a European under 22 champion and did also beat world bronze medallist Deepak Bhoria  at that first world qualifier. He is a decent counterpuncher, but doesn’t move as effectively or smoothly as you would expect given his style. Alcantara is somehow Panam champion and isn’t easy to box. You would have to back Huseynov to win this fight and while an impressive young boxer it is hard to see Lozano beating Huseynov either. They are all inexperienced though with Huseynov being the oldest of the 3 contenders for this medal at just 21.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Amit Panghal (5) .

 

So 2019 world silver medallist Amit Panghal having failed to medal as the top seed in Tokyo and then not be picked for the first two qualifiers, it seemed like his Olympic medal hopes were gone but now he is a favourite to medal. Patrick Chinyemba (8)  is a tricky opponent and one of the strongest African boxers here but Amit has beaten him before at commonwealth games. In the other last 16 fight Asian silver medallist Thitisan Panmot (7)  takes on the difficult to peg David de Pina (14) . De Pina is pretty impressive to watch, he moves and picks his shots very effectively but yet he has some atrocious losses on his resume. Panmot is a fairly talented boxer and is effective on the front foot which will be crucial for his chances against Amit who has struggled when put under pressure and doesn’t move as well as he used to. That said, I haven’t quite been convinced by Panmot and would be relatively confident in Amit’s chances

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Hasanboy Dusmatov (1) .

 

So just like at Asian games world champions Saken Bibossinov (2)  and Hasanboy Dusmatov look set to meet before the medal rounds. They have met 3 times with Bibossinov winning on his way to his 2021 world title before Dusmatov won the two more recent matchups at Asian champs in 2022 and Asian Games last year. For me Dusmatov is the better and more reliable boxer and I would be surprised if Bibossinov could overturn this one. Bibossinov is also vulnerable to surprise losses and does have a tricky enough last 16 fight against Samet Gumus (9) . Dusmatov should not have any trouble beating Juanma Lopez (12)  despite the young Puerto Ricon’s talents.

 

Medal Fights

 

Bilal Bennama (3)  vs Nijat Huseynov (10) , Amit (5)  vs Hasanboy Dusmatov (1) .

 

If these prove to be the medal fights, I can only really see them playing out one way. Bennama if he can navigate Hill and Claro should be able to beat the similar stylistically Huseynov unless he takes his eye off the ball. Amit does actually have a win against Dusmatov from 2018 albeit with 2 losses the previous year in 2017. Despite Dusmatov actually being the older of the 2, at this point in their career, their appears to only be one winner. Dusmatov and Bennama met in the world final last year and Dusmatov landed a KO in the first round so even with home advantage Bennama doesn’t appear to have path to winning this. That said I should add the caveat that this division incredibly unpredictable in qualifying so these medals and their respective colours could easily prove woefully inaccurate.

 

Gold- Hasanboy Dusmatov , Silver- Billal Bennama , Bronze- Amit , Bronze- Nijat Huseynov .

 

 

M57kg

 

Gold- Abdumalik khalokov (1) , Silver- Jahmal Harvey (2) , Bronze- Carlo Paalam (5) , Bronze- Javier Ibanez (4) .

 

	Seedings
1	Abdumalik Khalokov (UZB)	8	Jose Quiles (ESP)
2	Javier Ibanez (BUL)	7	Shudai Harada (JPN)
3	Jahmal Harvey (USA)	6	Saidel Horta (CUB)
4	Charlie Senior (AUS)	5	Dolapo Omole (NGR)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Abdumalik Khalokov (1) .

 

For me Abdumalik Khalokov is one of the best pound for pound boxers in the world and despite featherweight being one of the deepest and toughest divisions, I think he is a reasonably comfortable favourite to win outright here. He should have very little trouble with his opening fight against Nebil Ibrahim (14)  who himself should have no trouble with universality qualifier Wasim Abusal (17) . We will likely get a second Uzbekistan vs Kazakhstan quarter final with 54 kg world champion Makhmud Sabyrkhan (9) . Sabyrkhan doesn’t have the easiest opening fight in Jose Quiles (11)  and has struggled with the size of this weight class compared to 54kg in qualifying. Quiles is natural 60kg boxer who comes down to fight at 57kg, he is a finesse boxer though rather than a power puncher and as such the size mismatch might not matter as much. They haven’t met and are both world champions but it is hard to not pick Khalokov to beat Sabyrkhan in their likely matchup.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Carlo Paalam (5) .

 

Seeds wise, this was by far the most open bracket and could have led to a strange medal but 2 of the top unseeded boxers landed here so we avoided that eventuality. Commonwealth champion Jude Gallagher (7)  and 52kg Olympic silver medallist Carlo Paalam looked set to meet in a quota fight at the 1^st world qualifier only for an shoulder injury to force Paalam to pull out of his preceding fight. They will now meet here in the last 16. Gallagher is a little small for the division but will enjoy a significant height and reach advantage over the strongly built but tiny Carlo Paalam. Paalam looked good at the qualifiers but also has some strange losses in recent months. This is a fifty fifty fight for me but having watched Paalam end Brendan Irvines dreams in Tokyo, my default expectation is that Paalam will do it again to another Irish boxer. I do like Jude Gallagher’s chances though. Fascinating fight to watch anyway. Vasile Ustoroi (13)  was European champ in 2022 and has a very unorthodox counterpunching style, where he leaps and jumps in almost random directions and often get himself caught as a result. He should have too much for Charlie Senior (17)  but is unlikely to beat Paalam or Gallagher though.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Jahmal Harvey (2) .

 

2021 world champion is probably the big American hope for a gold at this tournament but he is going have to work for it if he wants to medal let alone win gold. He opens up with a rematch of the Pan American games semifinal against Luiz Oliveira (3)  who is awkward opponent and difficult to hit. Harvey managed to get the job done at Panam games but this fight is far from a foregone conclusion and Oliveira has won this matchup twice before. Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (12)  took the very last quota for this tournament but is a world bronze medallist and will face world silver medallist Saidel Horta (8)  in the last 16. Horta is good but not as accurate or precise as you would typically expect from Cuban boxers and I would regard this fight as a potential upset. Harvey beat Horta in the panam games final but it was level going into the last round. That said, I think Oliveira is the significantly tougher challenge for Harvey.

 

Bracket 4

 

 

My pick- Javier Ibanez (4) .

This is a tricky one. So the last 16 should be fairly straightforward.  Yilmar Gonzalez  (6)  should be able to land enough to beat the agile Shudai Harada (15)  and despite his impressive 2^nd world qualifier performance former European youth champion Aider Abduraimov (10)  is unlikely to push European champion Javier Ibanez too close. Javier Ibanez and Yilmar Gonzalez are both talented but haven’t quite yet produced the goods at a global championship. They met at the 2021 worlds with Ibanez getting the decision after a clash of heads caused the fight to be stopped midway through the second round. Gonzalez struggles under pressure but from range he is the better boxer. There were a number of contenders I would have been tempted to pick to beat Ibanez had they been drawn together but while I like Gonzalez, this matchup does suit Ibanez.

 

Medal Fights

 

Abdumalik Khalokov (1) vs Carlo Paalam (5) , Jahmal Harvey (3)  vs Javier Ibanez (4) .

 

If both Khalokov and Harvey get this far then it is hard to see them not ending up meeting in the final. Khalokov easily beat Paalam at Asian Games last year and Harvey shouldn’t have too much trouble with Ibanez. I think Khalokov’s counterpunching skills will prevail over Harvey but on paper this is one of if not the fight of the tournament if we get it.

 

Gold- Abdumalik khalokov , Silver- Jahmal Harvey , Bronze- Carlo Paalam , Bronze- Javier Ibanez .

[Ogreman 355]

Olympics Predictions (M71kg, M92kg)

 

M71kg

 

Gold- Aslanbek Shymbergenov (1) , Silver- Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (3) , Bronze- Omari Jones (6) , Bronze- Nishant Dev (7) .

 

	Seedings
1	Shannan Davey (AUS)	8	Kan Chia-wei
2	Marco Verde (MEX)	7	Jose Rodriguez (ECU)
3	Sewon Okazawa (JPN)	6	Vakhid Abbasov (SRB)
4	Nikolai Terteryan (DEN)	5	Omar Elawady (EGY)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Omari Jones (6) .

 

The most open division of all. Top 8 ranked boxers all probably have legitimate dreams of topping the podium. This top bracket is fairly predictable with 2021 67kg world silver medallist Omari Jones being the pick of the bunch. He opens his account against surprise Asian silver medallist Chia Wei Kan (18)  in the last 16. His likely quarter final opponent is Damian Durkacz (12)  although Durkacz who competed in Tokyo at 63kg does have a tough size mismatch against natural 75kg Rami Kiwan (14)  who used his height and reach advantage well to beat the similar in size and style Wanderson de Oliveira at the 1^st world qualifier and could do it again here against Durkacz. Shannan Davey (20)  is somewhat hilariously technically the number 1 seed while also being my lowest ranked boxer. He is tall and not the easiest opponent to hit but would be shocked if he beat Durkacz or Kiwan. Jones should be too quick and agile for Durkacz or Kiwan but he himself is also on the smaller side and could struggle a bit against the range of Kiwan.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (3) .

 

Really tough bracket to call. Olympic bronze medallist Aidan Walsh (8)  opens things up against Makan Traore (15) who he should be too good for but will have to overcome the French home advantage. 67kg world champion Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev meets African champion Omar Elawady (19)  in the most one sided fight in this bracket. Assuming Walsh wins his first fight, that would set a fascinating fight with European champion Nikolai Terteryan (4) . Terteryan is a quality operator but it will be interesting how he deals with Walsh’s counterpunching and defensive skills. The winner would then meet Muydinkhujaev who is mobile and difficult to hit. I tentatively would back Aidan Walsh to beat Terteryan although that is taking nothing away from Terteryan’s quality and then would pick Muydinkhujaev to take a narrow split decision in a scrappy fight against Walsh in the quarter finals but I really amn’t sure.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Aslanbek Shymbergenov (1) .

 

Another tricky one with 2021 67kg world champion Sewon Okazawa (5)  reacquainting himself with reigning 71kg world champion Aslanbek Shymbergenov. They met in the semifinal of Asian games and a very controversial decision went in favour of Okazawa. Both are counterpunchers so expect an ugly fight. Shymbergenov does have to beat the aggressive Zeyad Eashash (9)  beforehand but he has navigated that matchup before. The other side of this bracket sees an interesting matchup between two European medallists Lewis Richardson (11)  and Vakhid Abbasov (10) . Another massive size mismatch in favour of Richardson and on current form, I might back Richardson. Regardless the winner of Shymbergenov vs Okazawa fight should medal here although I really hope it is Shymbergenov because I don’t like Okazawa’s style or his nonsense showboating.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Nishant Dev (7) .

 

The final bracket should be fairly straightforward until the quarter finals. Firstly World bronze medallist Nishant Dev should be much too good for Jose Rodriguez (16) . Late entry Magomed Schachidov (13)  should also be comfortably able to beat Tiago Muxanga (17)  who is one of the better universality qualifiers. Panam Champ Marco Verde (2)  should then beat Schachidov although Schachidov is tough to beat and will make him work for it. Nishant vs Verde should be a close fight. Nishant won when they met at the 2021 world championships. Verde likes to come forward and Nishant is most effective when is opponent comes to him so while I think Verde is one of the best boxers in this draw, this matchup does suit Nishant.

 

Medal Fights

 

Omari Jones (6)  vs Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (3) , Aslanbek Shymbergenov (1)  vs Nishant Dev (7) .

Both semifinals will be close and I’m certain that my predictions up to this point won’t prove accurate so predicting the medal rounds here is a fool’s errand but anyway, Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev assuming he can beat Walsh or Terteryan would then be favoured against Omari Jones. Aslanbek Shymbergenov has beaten Nishant (and Marco Verde) before which would set up a rematch with Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev in the final. At Asian games Muydinkhujaev took a scrappy opening two rounds against Shymbergenov to take control of the fight before Shymbergenov unleashed hell in the final round to ultimately force 3 standing counts and the stoppage. So despite spending this entire cycle believing that while Shymbergenov is talented, not good enough to win and that I wouldn’t pick him for gold, I am picking him to win gold.

 

Gold- Aslanbek Shymbergenov , Silver- Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev , Bronze- Omari Jones , Bronze- Nishant Dev .

 

 

M92kg

 

Gold- Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (1) , Silver- Julio Cesar la Cruz (3) , Bronze- Georgi Kushitashvili (8) , Bronze- Enmanuel Reyes (7) c.

 

	Seedings
1	Ato Plodzicki Faoagali (SAM)	8	Han Xuezhen (CHN)
2	Davlat Boltaev (TJK)	7	Jack Marley (IRL)
3	Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA)	6	Keno Machado (BRA)
4	Julio Cesar la Cruz (CUB)	5	Adam Olaore (NGR)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Enmanuel Reyes (7) .

 

So in theory this is quite a straightforward bracket. Enmanuel Reyes is by far the most talented of the boxers in this section but opens his account against the awkward and difficult to hit Han Xuezhen (13) . Meanwhile, the even more frustrating to box and 2021 world 86kg medallist Victor Schelstraete (12) meets Ato Plodzicki-Faoagali (15) . Schelstraete likes to draw boxers in with a low guard, poke out a jab with his long reach and then tie his opponent up and I suspect that strategy will work against the plodding Plodzicki-Faoagali who only knows how to come forward. I do really hope Plodzicki-Faoagali could sneak a win here after the news about his coach. Schelstraete will give Reyes some trouble but you would have to trust Reyes to produce when it counts. Schelstraete has a real shot though.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick-Julio Cesar la Cruz (3) .

 

So I’ve gone back and forth with my thoughts on two time Olympic champion Julio Cesar la Cruz over this Olympic cycle. He has lost a step and isn’t as agile as he once was but he does move quite well and the punch picking is still there. He has got an interesting first fight against former Cuban and fellow Olympic medallist Loren Alfonso (6) . I wouldn’t call this a fight to watch as it will likely more closely resemble a staring contest than a boxing fight. They last met in 2019 where naturally la Cruz won unanimously. In the other fight Adam Olaore (16)  faces 86kg Asian champion Aybek Oralbay (5)  in what should be a straightforward win for the Kazakh. Oralbay will test La Cruz and the Cuban will need to be on his game but you would have to back la Cruz.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick-Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (1) .

 

This bracket is absolutely stacked and world silver medallist Mouhiidine could not have got a tougher draw. The world bronze medallist Lazizbek Mullojonov (4)  is first up for Mouhiidine. Mullojonov is a very complete boxer with very few weaknesses but I do think Mouhiidine’s back foot boxing should prevail. I thought Keno Machado (2)  deserved to beat la Cruz last year but didn’t get the decision and now has a very tough path to a medal. He matches up against bruiser Patrick Brown (10) . He beat Brown in Finland at the end of 2022 although Brown has improved since, not enough to flip this fight though. We then should get one of if not the best fights in this division with Mouhiidine matching up against Machado. Talent wise you could make a case for Machado but Mouhiidine has been there and done it albeit not yet at the Olympics of course.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Georgi Kushitashvili (8) .

 

I wasn’t feeling great about Jack Marley’s (9)  medal hopes over the last couple of months but this draw brings him right into contention. European games silver medallist Marley has met counterpuncher Mateusz Bereznicki (14)  before having beaten him at European under 22s 2 years ago. Kushitashvili doesn’t have the easiest of opening fights against Asian champion and quality counterpuncher Davlat Boltaev (11) . 86kg world medallist Kushitashvili has looked really good since moving up to heavyweight having initially tried to qualify at 80kg but is not the fastest and has lost to counterpunchers before. Kushitashvili vs Marley is potentially a really interesting fight with Marley’s speed likely to give Kushitashvili some trouble but reluctantly I will back the experienced Kushitashvili.

 

Medal Fights

 

Enmanuel Reyes (7)  vs Julio Cesar la Cruz (3) , Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (1)  vs Georgi Kushitashvili (8) .

If Mouhiidine can get this far he will beat Kushitashvili and while I’m sure Enmanuel Reyes would love to avenge his Tokyo quarter final loss to la Cruz, I don’t see it happening. Mouhiidine vs la Cruz would be a fascinating final with neither boxer likely to want to take the initiative. There is logic in picking la Cruz to win a third Olympic title especially given how tough Mouhiidine’s path to the final is but at this point in their respective careers it seems to me like this is Mouhiidine’s to lose

 

Gold- Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine , Silver- Julio Cesar la Cruz , Bronze- Georgi Kushitashvili , Bronze- Enmanuel Reyes .

[Ogreman 355]

Olympic Predictions (M92+kg, Predicted Medal Table)

 

M92+kg

 

Gold- Bakhodir Jalolov (1) , Silver- Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) , Bronze- Joshua Edwards (4) , Bronze- Abner Texeira (6) .

 

	Seedings
1	Joshua Edwards (USA)	8	Mahammad Abdullayev (AZE)
2	Delicious Orie (GBR)	7	Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ)
3	Mourad Kadi (ALG)	6	Abner Texeira (BRA)
4	Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB)	5	Teremoana Jnr (AUS)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Joshua Edwards (4) .

 

Very interesting bracket to start off. Nelvie Tiafack (5)  and Mahammad Abdullayev (11)  reacquaint with each other after Abdullayev beat Tiafack to qualify for the Olympics back at European games. Tiafack had won when they met prior to that. Tiafack is inconsistent and both he and Abdullayev are quite similar being kind of traditional bruising powerful super-heavyweights that don’t move a whole lot. Diego Lenzi (10)  has taken a couple of quality scalps earlier this year (Orie and Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui) but has an uphill task against Panam champion Josh Edwards. Edwards is a tidy boxer but physically he is not as built as most heavyweights and whether it is Tiafack or Abdullayev, it will be interesting to see how he deals with that level of power. I like his chances though.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Bakhodir Jalolov (1) .

 

Defending champion Bakhodir Jalolov is the most clear cut favourite in boxing, last lost a fight in 2018 and has beaten most of his primary competition here including Teremoana Jnr (3)  who is his toughest opponent between him and a medal. Teremoana packs a serious punch and should be able to dispatch Dmytro Lovchynskyi (14)  in his opening fight. Omar Shiha (13)  enjoyed a stroke of luck to qualify with a cut ending Danabieke Bayikewuzi’s hopes but got no luck here and will do well to last 3 rounds against Jalolov.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Abner Texeira (6) .

 

On paper the weakest of the four brackets. Both last 16 fights should be fairly straightforward wins for Djamili Aboudou Moindze (12)  against Mourad Kadi (16)  who does have the odd good win on his resume and Abner Texeira against the tricky Gerlon Congo (15)  who Texeira has beaten before. That would set up an fascinating quarter final between Aboudou Moindze and Texeira with both boxers having beaten each other in the past, with the most recent contest going in favour of the home boxer. With home advantage I really feel like I should pick the Frenchman but I do think Texeira is the significantly more talented boxer and as such expect him to produce the goods when it counts.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) .

 

Quality bracket this where all four of these boxers have significant pedigree. 2021 world silver medallist Davit Chaloyan (9)  meets European champion Delicious Orie (8) . Orie has had some bad losses of late and the Brits comparing him to Anthony Joshua is delusional but he is talented and for me should beat Chaloyan. World bronze medallist Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui (7)  faces Olympic bronze medallist Kamshybek Kunkabayev in what should be quite a close fight. Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui is a big man and consistent operator but I will back Kunkabayev although he is the boring pick. Kunkabayev against Orie should also be close but I’m not that convinced by Orie so let’s back Kunkabayev.

 

Medal Fights

 

Josh Edwards (4)  vs Bakhodir Jalolov (1) , Abner Texeira (6)  vs Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) .

 

While I think Edwards is talented, he won’t get close to Jalolov. I’m close to certain the second semi-final will be different than this prediction but if this was the particular semi-final, I’ll stick with the boring pick of Kunkabayev. The final would then be a renewal of the Kunkabeyev vs Jalolov rivalry although calling it a rivalry is generous as Jalolov has always won this matchup comfortably consistently.

 

Gold- Bakhodir Jalolov , Silver- Kamshybek Kunkabayev , Bronze- Joshua Edwards , Bronze- Abner Texeira .

 

Predicted medal table
	Predicted Gold	Predicted Silver	Predicted Bronze	Total medals	Contenders (Top 8 in rankings)
Uzbekistan	3	1	1	5	8
Turkey	2	0	0	2	3
Kazakhstan	1	2	1	4	6
France	1	1	1	3	4
Ireland	1	0	2	3	7
Chinese Taipei	1	0	1	2	3
Italy	1	0	0	1	3
North Korea	1	0	0	1	2
Canada	1	0	0	1	1
Ukraine	1	0	0	1	1
China	0	3	0	3	6
India	0	1	3	4	4
USA	0	1	2	3	4
Cuba	0	1	1	2	5
Philippines	0	1	1	2	3
Thailand	0	1	0	1	3
Romania	0	1	0	1	1
Brazil	0	0	3	3	6
Bulgaria	0	0	2	2	4
Georgia	0	0	2	2	2
Australia	0	0	1	1	3
Colombia	0	0	1	1	3
Congo	0	0	1	1	3
Spain	0	0	1	1	2
Azerbaijan	0	0	1	1	1
Dominican Republic	0	0	1	1	1
South Korea	0	0	1	1	1
Great Britain and NI	0	0	0	0	3
Serbia	0	0	0	0	2
Algeria	0	0	0	0	1
Croatia	0	0	0	0	1
Denmark	0	0	0	0	1
Refugee team	0	0	0	0	1
Germany	0	0	0	0	1
Mexico	0	0	0	0	1
Norway	0	0	0	0	1
Panama	0	0	0	0	1
Poland	0	0	0	0	1
Tajikistan	0	0	0	0	1
Zambia	0	0	0	0	1

 

So I have Uzbekistan expected to top the medal table with Turkey in a very precarious second, Decent and successful games for Kazakhstan, Ireland, France and Chinese Taipei. I have India winning a miraculous four medals and while the USA and China would be happy with 4 and 3 medals respectively the lack of gold would frustrate them. I should note this is already wrong as Oh Yeonji  lost today to Wu Shih-yi .

[thala07fan 6]

3 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Olympic Predictions (M92+kg, Predicted Medal Table)

 

M92+kg

 

Gold- Bakhodir Jalolov (1) , Silver- Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) , Bronze- Joshua Edwards (4) , Bronze- Abner Texeira (6) .

 

	Seedings
1	Joshua Edwards (USA)	8	Mahammad Abdullayev (AZE)
2	Delicious Orie (GBR)	7	Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ)
3	Mourad Kadi (ALG)	6	Abner Texeira (BRA)
4	Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB)	5	Teremoana Jnr (AUS)

 

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Joshua Edwards (4) .

 

Very interesting bracket to start off. Nelvie Tiafack (5)  and Mahammad Abdullayev (11)  reacquaint with each other after Abdullayev beat Tiafack to qualify for the Olympics back at European games. Tiafack had won when they met prior to that. Tiafack is inconsistent and both he and Abdullayev are quite similar being kind of traditional bruising powerful super-heavyweights that don’t move a whole lot. Diego Lenzi (10)  has taken a couple of quality scalps earlier this year (Orie and Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui) but has an uphill task against Panam champion Josh Edwards. Edwards is a tidy boxer but physically he is not as built as most heavyweights and whether it is Tiafack or Abdullayev, it will be interesting to see how he deals with that level of power. I like his chances though.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Bakhodir Jalolov (1) .

 

Defending champion Bakhodir Jalolov is the most clear cut favourite in boxing, last lost a fight in 2018 and has beaten most of his primary competition here including Teremoana Jnr (3)  who is his toughest opponent between him and a medal. Teremoana packs a serious punch and should be able to dispatch Dmytro Lovchynskyi (14)  in his opening fight. Omar Shiha (13)  enjoyed a stroke of luck to qualify with a cut ending Danabieke Bayikewuzi’s hopes but got no luck here and will do well to last 3 rounds against Jalolov.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Abner Texeira (6) .

 

On paper the weakest of the four brackets. Both last 16 fights should be fairly straightforward wins for Djamili Aboudou Moindze (12)  against Mourad Kadi (16)  who does have the odd good win on his resume and Abner Texeira against the tricky Gerlon Congo (15)  who Texeira has beaten before. That would set up an fascinating quarter final between Aboudou Moindze and Texeira with both boxers having beaten each other in the past, with the most recent contest going in favour of the home boxer. With home advantage I really feel like I should pick the Frenchman but I do think Texeira is the significantly more talented boxer and as such expect him to produce the goods when it counts.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) .

 

Quality bracket this where all four of these boxers have significant pedigree. 2021 world silver medallist Davit Chaloyan (9)  meets European champion Delicious Orie (8) . Orie has had some bad losses of late and the Brits comparing him to Anthony Joshua is delusional but he is talented and for me should beat Chaloyan. World bronze medallist Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui (7)  faces Olympic bronze medallist Kamshybek Kunkabayev in what should be quite a close fight. Ghadfa Drissi el Aissaoui is a big man and consistent operator but I will back Kunkabayev although he is the boring pick. Kunkabayev against Orie should also be close but I’m not that convinced by Orie so let’s back Kunkabayev.

 

Medal Fights

 

Josh Edwards (4)  vs Bakhodir Jalolov (1) , Abner Texeira (6)  vs Kamshybek Kunkabayev (2) .

 

While I think Edwards is talented, he won’t get close to Jalolov. I’m close to certain the second semi-final will be different than this prediction but if this was the particular semi-final, I’ll stick with the boring pick of Kunkabayev. The final would then be a renewal of the Kunkabeyev vs Jalolov rivalry although calling it a rivalry is generous as Jalolov has always won this matchup comfortably consistently.

 

Gold- Bakhodir Jalolov , Silver- Kamshybek Kunkabayev , Bronze- Joshua Edwards , Bronze- Abner Texeira .

 

Predicted medal table
	Predicted Gold	Predicted Silver	Predicted Bronze	Total medals	Contenders (Top 8 in rankings)
Uzbekistan	3	1	1	5	8
Turkey	2	0	0	2	3
Kazakhstan	1	2	1	4	6
France	1	1	1	3	4
Ireland	1	0	2	3	7
Chinese Taipei	1	0	1	2	3
Italy	1	0	0	1	3
North Korea	1	0	0	1	2
Canada	1	0	0	1	1
Ukraine	1	0	0	1	1
China	0	3	0	3	6
India	0	1	3	4	4
USA	0	1	2	3	4
Cuba	0	1	1	2	5
Philippines	0	1	1	2	3
Thailand	0	1	0	1	3
Romania	0	1	0	1	1
Brazil	0	0	3	3	6
Bulgaria	0	0	2	2	4
Georgia	0	0	2	2	2
Australia	0	0	1	1	3
Colombia	0	0	1	1	3
Congo	0	0	1	1	3
Spain	0	0	1	1	2
Azerbaijan	0	0	1	1	1
Dominican Republic	0	0	1	1	1
South Korea	0	0	1	1	1
Great Britain and NI	0	0	0	0	3
Serbia	0	0	0	0	2
Algeria	0	0	0	0	1
Croatia	0	0	0	0	1
Denmark	0	0	0	0	1
Refugee team	0	0	0	0	1
Germany	0	0	0	0	1
Mexico	0	0	0	0	1
Norway	0	0	0	0	1
Panama	0	0	0	0	1
Poland	0	0	0	0	1
Tajikistan	0	0	0	0	1
Zambia	0	0	0	0	1

 

So I have Uzbekistan expected to top the medal table with Turkey in a very precarious second, Decent and successful games for Kazakhstan, Ireland, France and Chinese Taipei. I have India winning a miraculous four medals and while the USA and China would be happy with 4 and 3 medals respectively the lack of gold would frustrate them. I should note this is already wrong as Oh Yeonji  lost today to Wu Shih-yi .

A very good and detailed analysis on the boxing draws. I was very concerned about India's boxing contingent, after the draws were announced as our star boxers Nikhat and Lovlina were handed exceptionally tough draws. Though I'm not quite sure about Nikhat's silver prediction, anything in the range of 4 medals from boxing will be a miracle and we'll gladly take it 

[dodge 1,022]

Really interesting previews. Thanks for those. Seems incredible that Cuba won’t have at least one gold medal winner!

[Oldira 88]

Thanks for the Ogreman. It shows there is a wafer thin margin in Ireland wing medals and winning none. A couple of bad decisions could make all the difference. Still hoping O’Rourke can win Gold but am worried about Kellie. She’s keeping a very low profile.

[Monzanator 4,425]

Durkacz wins round 1 but get deducted a point in round 2 for nothing

[Monzanator 4,425]

referee deducts a second point in round 3 and it's over. What a joke!

 

@bestmenhas some explaining to do!