Boxing at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[bestmen 2,818]

because they cheat 

[bestmen 2,818]

In swimming for sure they will put us vs orca 

[Ogreman 355]

Boxing Olympic predictions (W54KG, W60kg)

 

So having attempted to predict all the qualifying tournaments, might as well give the Olympics themselves a go. I really wanted to get this done in one part and not have to split this into two but I just ran out of time. So to keep things simple I will post the four weightclasses in action today now and the other 9 tomorrow. I will include a table of the seeds at the top of each weightclass and then my own rankings of these boxers in brackets.

 

I’m just going to keep emphasizing this because I’m sure it will come up again. Seeding draw was randomized and higher seeds are not inherently better than lower seeds. So look I don’t expect to be that accurate. If I push a 60% hit rate on medallists and pick 6 of the eventual champions, I would happy enough.

 

There were two late changes to the entry. As mentioned already in this thread losing European Games quarter finalist Magomed Schachidov replaces Tugrulhan Erdemir (doping suspension) and also disappointingly Pemberton Lele was unable to travel so the universality quota at 63.5kg goes to John Ume who also got a universality quota for Tokyo.

 

W54kg

 

Gold- Pang Chol-mi (1)  , Silver-Lacramioara Perijoc (7) ,Bronze- Stanimira Petrova (2) , Bronze- Preeti (11) .

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Stanimira Petrova (2) .

 

The toughest Women’s division to rank and also to predict and first up is the toughest bracket within it to project. Hsiao Wen Huang (6)  is world champion and an Olympic medallist but is probably the third most likely boxer to medal here. She has an easy opening fight against Bojana Gojkovic (18)  who she beat to qualify at the second world qualifier. She faces a huge fight against European champion Stanimira Petrova. On current form you have to back Petrova but it will be close. The other last 16 fight sees Asian silver medallist Yuan Chang (5)  has a tricky opener against the fast and agile Jennifer Lehane (12)  which is a fight I think has upset potential. Chang will be hopeful that Huang is the boxer she would then face in a quarter final as she has beaten her and lost to Petrova albeit the Petrova loss was in Bulgaria and the win over Huang was in China. I think I would back either Petrova or Huang though over Chang.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Pang Chol-mi (1) .

 

Pang Chol-mi was world champion in 2018 and Asian champion last year but still comes into this tournament somewhat unknown. She is nominally my highest ranked boxer but that is more out of a distrust of every other contender than a great belief in Pang. She has a Asian games semi final rematch with Nigina Uktamova (16)  in her opening fight. Meanwhile Sara Cirkovic (3)  meets world bronze medallist Jutamas Jitpong (9)  in the one of the better last 32 fights. Cirkovic has developed rapidly to be one of the favourites here having being world youth champion in 2022, European under 22 champion last year and European senior champion and of course Olympic qualifier this season. While Jitpong is decent mover, Cirkovic should be too strong for her. Cirkovic then has an easier fight against counterpuncher Widad Bertal (21)  to set up a fight with Pang which would probably go under the radar a bit but could decide the gold medal winner. I am very tempted to pick Cirkovic but I will trust Pang’s experience.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Lacramioara Perijoc (7) .

 

The most open of these brackets with a number of interesting fights. Charley Davison (4)  against 2022 world champion Hatice Akbas should be fascinating. Akbas has not managed to back up that home world championships win but she is a quality and difficult to beat counterpuncher. Davison has been in good form of late winning the US boxing invitational in April but this is a crucial fight for the comparably small British squad’s medal hopes. Tiana Echegaray (20)  waits to be beaten by the winner of the Akbas vs Davison in the last 16. World bronze medallist Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (15)  faces Sirine Charaabi (14)  in what should be an even fight with the winner being rewarded with a fight against the aggressive 2022 world silver medallist Lacramioara Perijoc. Perijoc has beaten Akbas on multiple occasions but a matchup with Davison would be interesting and likely would come down to Davison’s ability to maintain the distance and not allow Perijoc on the inside. Perijoc has won against opponents like Davison before so I would tentatively back her.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Preeti (11) .

 

So Yeni Arias (13)  is the reigning world silver medallist but she is also just not that good and yet the draw has been kind enough to give her a real shot here. First up quality young boxer Preeti meets Thi Kim Anh Vo (17)  in a fight she should win fairly comfortably. The winner then faces Arias and while Arias has the pedigree, as is clear from my rankings I would back Preeti to win here. Meanwhile the tall and rangy Im Aeji (10)  has a relatively straightforward last 16 fight against Tatiana de Jesus (19)  before what could be a fascinating fight with Preeti or Arias of course. I’m not quite sure how we got here but given Im has never managed to produce it when it counts somehow I’m picking Preeti to win a medal.

 

Medal Fights

 

Stanimira Petrova (2)  vs Pang Chol-mi (1) , Lacramioara Perijoc (7) vs Preeti (11) .

 

So the winner of the third bracket in this case Perijoc should beat whoever comes out of the bottom bracket. Petrova and Pang both have tough paths to medal but the winner of that semi final likely decides to gold medal. To be honest, I hae no idea what will happen in this division but I guess I’m picking Pang to beat Perijoc in the final.

 

Gold- Pang Chol-mi  , Silver-Lacramioara Perijoc ,Bronze- Stanimira Petrova , Bronze- Preeti .

 

W60kg

 

Gold- Kellie Harrington (1) , Silver- Wenlu Yang (4) , Bronze- Beatriz Ferreira (2) , Bronze- Oh Yeon-ji (8) .

 

 

	Seedings
1	Yang Wenlu (CHN)	8	Natalia Shadrina (SRB)
2	Beatriz Ferreira (BRA)	7	Won Ung-yong (PRK)
3	Kellie Harrington (IRL)	6	Angie Valdez (COL)
4	Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR)	5	Tyla McDonald (AUS)

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Wenlu Yang (4) .

 

World bronze medallist and Asian champion got about as good a draw as she could have realistically hoped for with a straightforward opener against Thi Linh Ha (18)  who first will beat Feofaaki Epenisa (22) . Meanwhile newly crowned European champion Natalia Shadrina (7)  also has a straightforward opener against Hadjila Khelif (21) . 34 year old Shadrina has enjoyed somewhat of a late career peak with her performances recently but did lose to Yang at Strandja earlier this year but that will at least be an interesting matchup.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Oh Yeon-ji (8) .

 

So this bracket is wide open. Former Asian champion Oh Yeonji had not been in great form of late but stormed back into shape beating Amy Broadhurst  (that flag still looks wrong) at the final qualifier. She is somewhat more awkward than good but that might be enough to medal here. She beat her opening round opponent Wu Shih Yi (10)  on her way to winning the Asian championships in 2022 and should repeat the feat here. She then faces African champion and experienced pro Cynthia Ogunsemilore (17) . On the other side of the bracket Agnes Alexiusson (14)  should come through fights against Maria Palacios (19)  and Tyla McDonald (20) . Alexiusson and Oh met all the way back in 2018 where Oh won to take a world medal and while a lot of time has passed, I would expect to see the same outcome here.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Kellie Harrington (1) .

 

Kellie Harrington has never quite found her form this Olympic cycle despite it taking until this year’s Europeans for her to lose a fight. Typically though she produces her best when it matters most although she will need it just to medal here. She opens her account against the winner of Alessia Mesiano (13)  and Gizem Ozer (15) . In the other last 32 fight former world medallist Donjeta Sadiku (9)  should beat Thananya Somnuek (16)  but will likely struggle against world silver medallist Angie Valdez (3) . Valdez is a quality and powerful boxer and would likely have medalled in other brackets but will provide a very stern test for Kellie Harrington.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Beatriz Ferreira (2) .

 

There is a fair bit of quality in the bottom half of this draw. 2016 champion Estelle Mossely (6)  should beat Jajaira Gonzalez (12)  to set up an interesting fight with 2-time world champion Beatriz Ferreira. Asian silver medallist Won Ungyong (5)  is a complete unknown beyond that result and will be somewhat tested early by former 63kg world medallist Chelsey Heijnen (11)  before herself likely facing Ferreira. I would be surprised if Ferreira didn’t come through those 2 fights as her record at major championships is remarkably consistent but it isn’t the easiest path.

 

Medal Fights

 

Wenlu Yang (4)  vs Oh Yeonji (8) , Kellie Harrington (1)  vs Beatriz Ferreira (2) .

 

So Wenlu Yang starts as favourite to beat Oh Yeonji but that should be a close enough fight. The big fight though is the Tokyo Olympic final rematch between Kellie Harrington and Beatriz Ferreira. Despite Ferreira having acquired more silverware this Olympic cycle, Harrington should still be favoured here and her ability to pick Ferreira off as she comes forward was the deciding factor in Tokyo and very well could be the deciding factor again. While Wenlu Yang actually beat Harrington in the 64kg world final back in 2016, given how their respective careers have gone since I would be surprised if the winner of the Harrington Ferreira semi didn’t take the gold medal.

 

Gold- Kellie Harrington , Silver- Wenlu Yang , Bronze- Beatriz Ferreira , Bronze- Oh Yeon-ji .

[Ogreman 355]

Olympic medal predictions (M63.5kg, M80kg)

 

M63.5kg

 

Gold- Sofiane Oumiha (4) , Silver- Bunjong Sinsiri (3) , Bronze- Ruslan Abdullaev (2) , Bronze- Lasha Guruli (4) .

	Seedings
1	Wyatt Sanford (CAN)	8	Miguel Martinez (MEX)
2	Chu-en Lai (TPE)	7	Lasha Gurul
3	Jugurtha Ait Bekka (ALG)	6	Bunjong Sinsiri (THA)
4	Sofiane Oumiha (FRA)	5	Harry Garside (AUS)

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Ruslan Abdullaev (2) .

 

This is one of the toughest division to predict and I have no confidence in my own predictions proving remotely accurate. Remember when I was saying because he was seeded Wyatt Sanford (13)  could medal if he got a good draw, well yeah, not anymore. So first up is a fascinating encounter between Radoslav Rosenov (8)  and world bronze medallist Bakhodur Usmonov (5) . Rosenov is a rangy boxer who took the scenic route qualifying wise but got there eventually. Usmonov is a very solid boxer who is tough to beat and doesn’t have many weaknesses. I would lean towards Usmonov but Rosenov has a real chance. Either should then have too much for the aggressive but a little unrefined Wyatt Sanford. Meanwhile world champion Ruslan Abdullaev has a relatively straigthforward opener against Miguel Martinez (14) . Abdullaev is still quite young and while very good coming forward he has a number of vulnerabilities and I’m sure would have been hoping to avoid the likes of Usmonov until the medal rounds. I think he will come through Usmonov or Rosenov but I’m not that confident in that prediction.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Sofiane Oumiha (1) .

 

Dean Clancy (11)  was always a pretty fringe medal hope amongst the Irish team so in some ways him being the one to get a bad draw is fine. He should beat the aggressive Obada Al Kasbeh (15)  but 60kg world champion and 2016 Olympic champion Sofiane Oumiha dispatched him handily enough at European games last year. Meanwhile the other European games bronze medallist Richard Kovacs (19)  is unlikely to put up much resistance against the 2021 Olympic bronze medal winner and quality counterpunching southpaw Harry Garside (7) . Garside is a little unfortunate with the seeding bracket as I would have been very tempted to pick him to medal against others in this division. That said Oumiha is not unbeatable and tall counterpuncher like Garside could give him serious trouble.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Bunjong Sinsiri (3) .

 

So Bunjong Sinsiri is a tricky one. In 2022 he beat Chinzorig Baatarsukh  (would have been the favourite here if not for a doping violation.) and world silver medallist Dulat Bekbauov  to win the 67kg Asian title and also beat 71kg world champion Aslanbek Shymbergenov  a couple of months prior. He then lost to Baatarsukh at Asian games and was bizarrely dropped by Thailand for the first world qualifier in favour of the good but not elite Somchay Wongsuwan  and then of course qualified after Baatarsukh’s doping suspension happened. He is a little slow but has a ludicrously long reach for the division and despite his impressive wins, at a global level he is completely unproven. He starts off with a tricky test against the small but effective Jesus Cova (12) . Meanwhile 60kg world silver medallist Erislandy Alvarez (6)  should navigate his first two fights against late call up John Ume (20)  and African champ Jugurtha Ait Bekka (18) . That will set up a third quality but tricky to predict quarter final between Alvarez and Sinsiri. Alvarez struggled to qualify and will have a significant size disadvantage here but I don’t yet quite trust Sinsiri to do the business. Sinsiri is tentatively my pick though.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Lasha Guruli (4) .

 

The weakest bracket on paper but will throw up some interesting fights. Oier Ibbareche (16)  came out of relatively nowhere to qualify at the second world qualifier with Spain having picked 2 completely different boxers for the preceding two qualifying tournaments. He meets Mukhammedsabyr Bazarabay Uulu (9) who is the weakest of the male Kazakh boxers but still a quality operator. The winner presumably Mukhammedsabyr would then face  technically the Asian champion in Chu-en Lai (17) . Lai did well to take advantage of a weak draw to qualify but the Kazakh should come through here as well. European silver medallist Lasha Guruli meets Malik Hasanov (10) . Both are taller boxers who like to control fights from range so I suspect this will be quite a standoffish fight. They are both inconsistent but Guruli has the higher ceiling and therefore should be expected to win here. Mukhammedsabyr would provide an interesting and different challenge to Guruli or Hasanov of course but I think Guruli’s ringcraft would allow him to prevail.

 

Medal Fights

 

Projected semis- Ruslan Abdullaev (2)  vs Sofiane Oumiha (1) , Bunjong Sinsiri (3)  vs Lasha Guruli (4) .

 

So I have zero confidence that the four boxers I have classified as favourites will actually all prevail but anyway, Oumiha should be able to pick the still developing Abdullaev off and make the final. Guruli would be safer pick but Sinsiri has beaten boxers who have beaten Guruli so you would have to provisionally back him in the semis as well. Like Garside, Sinsiri could then potentially cause some trouble for Oumiha but you would have to back the Frenchman at home in an Olympic final.

 

Gold- Sofiane Oumiha , Silver- Bunjong Sinsiri , Bronze- Ruslan Abdullaev , Bronze- Lasha Guruli .

 

M80kg

 

Gold- Oleksandr Khyzniak (1)  , Silver- Nurbek Oralbay (2) , Bronze- Arlen Lopez (4) , Bronze- Christian Pinales (7) .

	Seedings
1	Tuohetaebieke Tanglatihan (CHN)	8	Gabrijel Veocic (CRO)
2	Arlen Lopez (CUB)	7	Eumir Marcial (PHI)
3	Oleksandr Khyzniak (UKR)	6	Wanderley Pereira (BRA)
4	Abdelrahma Abdelgawwad (EGY)	5	Callum Peters (AUS)

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Christian Pinales (7) .

 

So most of these predictions line up with my rankings, because ye know my opinions on these boxers haven’t really changed much in the space of a week but I am going to gamble and go against my own rankings here. Christian Pinales is a massive boxer and very skilled but he is a bit lower in my rankings as a result of his inexperience and his lack of standout results. He has a tough opening fight against 2021 75kg world bronze medallist Weerapon Jongjoho (10)  who rode his hometown luck a bit to qualify. The winner gets rewarded with a fight against Asian champion and world silver medallist Tuohetaebieke Tanglatihan (3)  who is a skilled counter puncher but I like Pinales’ chances of causing an upset. The other last 16 fight is the technically sound European silver medallist Gabrijel Veocic (8)  against the front foot 2022 Asian champion Hussein Iashaish (11)  (who is competing in his third straight Olympics, in his third weightclass and uniquely has been moving down weight divisions as he ages). Veocic should win but has struggled against power boxers at points in his young career. Tanglatihan or Pinales would be favoured over Veocic in a quarter final though.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Nurbek Oralbay (2) .

 

So for some reason betting odds love Callum Peters (15)  and believe he is one of the medal favourites here. I don’t see it but what do I know? Reigning world champion Nurbek Oralbay is going to beat him anyway so I guess we will never know how well he could have done with an easier draw. The other fight in this bracket sees Murad Allahverdiyev (14)  facing African champion Abdelrahman Abdelgawwad (17) . Neither boxer would have really been expected to make the quarter finals so both now have a chance. Oralbay should cruise through this bracket.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Oleksandr Khyzniak (1) .

 

Not the easiest draw for European champion Oleksandr Khyzniak. The most front foot pressure fighter of all is looking to avenge his shock last gasp loss in the 2021 75kg Olympic final with gold here. He doesn’t have the easiest of openings with counterpuncher Pylyp Akilov (12) . Akilov is effective on the back foot but just doesn’t quite move well enough to evade Khyzniak for 3 rounds. Khyzniak will then face 75kg world and Panam silver medallist Wanderley Pereira (9) . Pereira has not been in great form of late and is not the type of boxer likely to trouble Khyzniak.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Arlen Lopez (4) .

 

After a couple of on paper quite straightforward brackets, we come to the most unpredictable one with 3 legitimate medal favourite here. First up Salvatore Cavallaro (13)  should beat Kaan Aykutsun (16)  before providing a fairly straightforward opening fight to reigning Olympic champion Arlen Lopez. Lopez has not looked in great shape of late but that was true before Tokyo as well. On the other side of this draw the very promising Turabek Khabibullaev (5)  faces 75kg Olympic medallist Eumir Marcial (6) . Khabibuallaev is more talented but may struggle with the power of Marical. Either would potentially cause Lopez trouble but at least for now, Lopez would start as marginal favourite to beat either in what I’m sure would be a quality fight.

 

Medal Fights

 

Christian Pinales (7)  vs Nurbek Oralbay (2) , Oleksandr Khyzniak (1) vs Arlen Lopez (4) .

 

Nurbek Oralbay would be favoured to beat Pinales but if it is a fight with Tanglatihan it would be a very close affair. They have fought 3 times, 2 going in favour of Oralbay but all were close decisions. Khyzniak vs Lopez should be one of the standout fights of the games, with I’m sure Lopez being a rare boxer willing to attempt to match Khyzniak’s punch output. In the unlikely event my predictions prove accurate that would set up a Khyzniak Oralbay final, Oralbay’s movement and counterpunching is usually the best path to beating Khyzniak but having left gold behind him in Tokyo, I will back Khyzniak to get over the line here.

 

Gold- Oleksandr Khyzniak  , Silver- Nurbek Oralbay (2) , Bronze- Arlen Lopez (4) , Bronze- Christian Pinales (7) .

[ChandlerMne 1,037]

Yomna Ayyad  out by W/O

[Federer91 2,797]

If the damn referees stop Rosenov's match, because of his cut it would be a real robbery. He is completely destroying his opponent and should get his well deserved win. 

 

[Federer91 2,797]

Very nice start to our boxing performance.  Rado Rosenov in control the whole match and a good win against a tough opponent in Usmanov. Now on to the highly talked about  Sanford. 

[Federer91 2,797]

 Dean Clancy isn't making his job easy, very chaotic boxing from him.

[Federer91 2,797]

And the shaky start has cost Clancy and he is out.  Jordan getting a happy moment today.

[heywoodu 15,145]

Lionel Elika Fatupaito, coach of  Samoa's boxing team, has died of a heart attack in the Olympic village.