Boxing IOC Olympic Qualifier 1 2024

[Benolympique 2,398]

  On 3/3/2024 at 11:18 AM, Ogreman said:

Right, let's have a go at predicting these. The lack of a stream and some tough Irish draws have dampened my excitement for this competition considerably but sure look. I'll post an updated rankings for the top 30 per weightclass who are competing here and I'll include where I rank each boxer in my analysis. This is the first big test of their accuracy as well.

Draws here are unseeded like the other qualifying competitions and the competition ends in every weightclass once qualification has been decided so with the exception of W57kg and W60kg there are effectively four separate competitions for a quota spot in each weightclass.

Obviously majority of countries are here but some exceptions include Mongolia, North Korea and DR Congo.

Also going to have to do this in multiple parts based on which weightclasses start on day one because doing these in one night is tough. (Also the 75 emoji limit is giving me trouble)

 

M51kg

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Tomoya Tsuboi (3) , Other contenders- Yuberjen Martinez (6) , Alejandro Claro (12) , Ari Bonilla (13) .

I'm not the biggest fan of Tomoya Tsuboi's style but he should start as the favourite for the quota here against a very Americas heavy bracket. He has  a straightforward first fight before a likely clash of styles with the front foot Yuberjen Martinez provided Martinez beat Keymberth Gonzalez (32) . The other side of the bracket sees a couple of potentially intriguing (quarter finals) with Alejandro Claro Fis likely meeting Omid Ahmadisafa (22)  who has a couple of impressive wins on his resume and 2022 youth world champion Ari Bonilla meeting Luis Delgado (26) . Claro should come through though which would set up a fight with Tsuboi for the Olympic quota in a fight I wouldn't expect to be a classic.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Roscoe Hill (2) , Other contender- Deepak Bhoria (4).

Some interesting fights here but this will almost certainly end up being Hill vs Deepak for the quota. Deepak has the tougher path meeting Nijat Huseynov (19) , Sakhil Alekhverdovi (16)  and Rudolf Garboyan (21) although he should be comfortably too good for all of them. Hill won't be tested until his third fight against Jiamao Zhang (17) . Hill vs Deepak should a tremendous fight and will be one of the few we will actually get to watch. I lean towards Hill but it will almost certainly be very close.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Martin Molina (5) , Other contenders- Po Wei Tu (11) , Kim In-Kyu (15) , Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (18) , Dmytro Zamotayev (14) .

I know I have him pretty high in my rankings but I didn't really expect to be picking Martin Molina for a quota here and despite his favourable draw, I still wouldn't entirely trust him. He has a straightforward opening fight before meeting Kim In-Kyu who seemingly hasn't boxed internationally since 2021 but had some impressive results in the previous Olympic cycle. Po Wei Tu should then await in effectively a semi final as long as he can beat Theophilus Allotey (33) . The bottom half of the draw sees Ramon Nicanor Quiroga and Dmytro Zamotayev have to navigate tough early fights against Nurzhigit Diushebaev (28)  and Juanma Lopez (27)  respectively. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here, not sure who it is coming from though.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Saken Bibossinov (1) , Other contenders- Kiaran MacDonald (7) , Federico Serra (8) , Roger Ladon (9) , Istvan Szaka (10) .

Well after a couple of lighter draws, that was going to leave some serious talent in the bottom bracket. There are two heavyweight first round fights with Kiaran MacDonald meeting Istvan Szaka and Federico Serra meeting Roger Ladon. The respective winners then have a slightly more straightforward fight before meeting eachother. Serra has had a couple of big wins since losing in a quota fight to Samet Gumus  at European games and being at home might be the slight favourite to come through but MacDonald did beat him at 2022 Europeans. Meanwhile Bibbosinov shouldn't have much trouble reaching the quota fight with his toughest fight likely to be against the winner of Cosmin Girleanu (19)  vs Azat Makhmetov (23) . The 2022 world champion should book his Olympic spot here but he will be tested whoever he ends up meeting in the quota fight.

 

M71kg

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Aidan Walsh (4) , Other contenders- Wanderson de Oliveira (9) , Rami Kiwan (14).

 

Ah the extremely rare last 128 fights, Draw sheet doesn't even fit on one page. Anyway, the one draw where things broke nicely for the Irish boxers. There isn't a ton to say here world bronze medallist Wanderson and Olympic bronze medallist Aidan Walsh meet in their second fight. Whoever wins becomes the massive favourite for the quota and should cruise to a qualifying fight. Rami Kiwan meets Merven Clair (24)  and the winner of that should end up facing Syrgak Abdyzhapar Uulu (25) in a semi final before probably losing to Walsh or Wanderson. I am pretty confident Aidan Walsh should come through to win here. 

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Yurii Zakhareiev (1) , Other contenders- Asadkhuja Muydhinkhujaev (3) , Zeyad Eashash (7) , Magomed Schachidov (8) .

 

This is a tricky bracket with two world champions. 2023 world champion at 67kg Asadkhuja Muydhinkhujaev (although there was a bit of a question mark over whether he should be selected ahead of Khavasbek Asadullaev ) starts off with a straightforward fight but will be severely tested against Magomed Schachidov in his second fight. Yurii Zakhareiev meanwhile also has an interesting second fight against either Rattapol Kadamduan (23)  or Alexander Rangel (27)  who are both unknown quantities. Muydhinkhujaev and Zakhareiev (jesus, they  couldn't have made their names much trickier to type could they?) would then meet in a "semi final". The bottom half of the draw sees Zeyad Eashash have the navigate a couple of tough fights against former Russian Shokhobzhon Shukurov (30)  and the winner of Bruno Fernandes de Barros (22)  vs Ronald Chavez Jr (32) . Navigating tricky but winnable fights is not something Eashash always manages to do. He would then face Jorge Cuellar (11)  who doesn't really pose the threat that typically accompanies a Cuban flag. Eashash could easily lose his first fight or beat one of the world champions and pick up the quota. I think a still improving Zakhareiev is the horse to back here.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Aslanbek Shymbergenov (2) , Other contenders- Damian Durkacz (10) .

I am skeptical about 2023 world champion Aslanbek Shymbergenov's medal prospects for the Olympics but the draw was kind to him and even if it wasn't he should still qualify. His toughest fight will likely be his second one against Damian Durkacz  who has an ability box up and well also down to the quality of his opponent. Durkacz does have to navigate an opening fight against Angel Llanos (17) . Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (15)  likely awaits Shymbergenov if Nurmuhammedov can beat Virgilio de los Santos (33) . The bottom half of the bracket should see an interesting "semi final" between Sarkhan Aliyev (13)  and Sergio Martinez (21)  although Aliyev does have to beat Junior Petanqui (20)  to get that far.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Nishant Dev (6) , Other contenders- Omari Jones (5) , Lewis Richardson (12) .

Omari Jones has a fairly straightforward path to a qualifying fight with just his opening bout against Tokyo Olympian Aliaksandr Radzionau (19)  who is one of just 2 Belarussian neutral athletes here. There he should face the winner of Nishant Dev vs 2022 European 75kg silver medallist Lewis Richardson. Richardson came somewhat out of nowhere to get the British spot ahead of Harris Akbar and Garan Croft. I have Omari Jones ahead of Nishant in my rankings but I feel like stylistically this fight suits Nishant so I'm going to pick him.

 

M92+kg

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Ayoub Ghadfa el Drissi (3)  , Other contenders- Danis Latypov (10) , Diego Lenzi (11) , Ali Feliz (15) .

The draw kind of opened of for Ayoub Ghadfa to make his second Olympics. His "semi final" fight against home and in form Diego Lenzi should be interesting. On the other side of the bracket should see American based Ali Feliz face off against Danis Latypov provided Feliz can come through against the inexperienced Martin McDonagh (22). There isn't all that much between Ghadfa, Latypov and Lenzi.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Luka Pratljacic (5) , Other contenders-  Nelvie Tiafack (1) , Christian Salcedo (8) .

This is a pretty bracket. Dusan Veletic (14)  faces off against Christian Salcedo in a fight that will test the Colombian. He should make it through his subsequent fight to set up a "semi final" against the winner of Luka Pratljacic (who impressively beat Marko Milun  to get selected) and Dmytro Lovchynskyi (13). Meanwhile former European champion Nelvie Tiafack was somewhat fortunate to keep his spot in the German selection ahead of the up and coming Nikita Putilov  (for me they should have picked Putilov). His toughest fight before the qualifying fight is likely to be against Narender Berwal  (17). Tiafack's recent form has not been great so I'm going to pick Pratljacic here although I certainly would not rule out Salcedo.

 

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I mean, you're not optimistic for

 

The French boxing federation aims for 2 quotas

 

[Ogreman 360]

M92+kg

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Fernando Arzola (2) , Other contenders- Danabieke Bayikewuzi (4) , Omar Shiha (12) .

This one should be fairly clear cut. Arzola has an awkward opening fight against Diarga Balde (16)  before facing his main rival for the quota Danabieke Bayikewuzi. He beat Bayikewuzi comfortably at worlds last year. Meanwhile Omar Shiha just has to come through against Mohamed Firisse (30) , Muhammad Abroridinov (27)  and probably Thomas Mboua (28) . Shiha occasionally springs a surprise but this is very much Arzola's to lose.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Davit Chaloyan (6) , Other contenders- Djamili Aboudou Moindze (7) , Yordan Hernandez (9) .

This is a close one. Davit Chaloyan has a very simple path to a qualifying fight with just Gerlon Congo (18)  in his path. Djamili Aboudou Moindze has a tougher route needing to beat Yordan Hernandez and one of Iman Ramazenpour (25)  or Keddy Agnes (19) . Chaloyan beat Aboudou Moindze when they met in 2022 although their recent form is pretty similar. This one could go either way.

 

W51kg

 

 

Bracket 1

My pick- Alua Balkibekova (6) , Other Contenders- Maxi Kloetzer (15) , Anush Grigoryan (16) .

The draw has really opened up for Alua Balkibekova who gets picked ahead of Nazym Kyzaibay . She has a bye before likely facing Aylin Jamez (27)  followed by Anush Grigoryan or the unknown Jung Joo-Hyung (20) . Maxi Kloetzer should await in a qualifying fight with her toughest test being either against Rita Soares  (25)  or Guo Yi Xuan  (23) neither of which should cause her any trouble.

 

Bracket 2

My pick- Thi Tham Nguyen (1) , Other Contenders- Sabina Bobokulova (3) , Daina Moorehouse (4) , Rinka Kinoshita (8), Aldana Florencia Lopez (12) , Savannah Stubley (13) .

By far the toughest bracket and a difficult one to call Thi Tham Nguyen meets Daina Moorehouse in what should be one of the most interesting fights in the division. The winner gets rewarded with a fight against Tayonis Cedeno (19)  before another mouthwatering matchup with Sabina Bobokulova who recently won Strandja beating Asian champion Wu Yu  and world champion Nikhat Zareen  albeit both on questionable split decisions. I have no idea which of Nguyen, Moorehouse or Bobokulova will come through. The other side of the draw isn't easy either Aldana Florencia Lopez has a rematch from panam games with Ingrid Gomez (17)  while Rinka Kinoshita who moves down from bantamweight to replace the presumably injured Tsukimi Namiki has a straightforward fight against Nicole Durikova before another interesting fight against Savannah Stubley who regains her spot as the top British flyweight. Its unlikely that Stubley, Kinoshita or Lopez will beat whoever comes through the top half but it still should be a quality decider.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Tetiana Kob (5) , Other contenders- Zlatislava Chukanova (10) , Aira Villegas (11) .

The draw has been fairly kind to the uber experienced former European champion Tetiana Kob. Her first fight against Zlatislava Chukanova may prove her toughest fight with Nina Radovanovic (14)  likely waiting in effectively a semi final. Aira Villegas meanwhile has to navigate fights against Mckenzie Wright (22)  and probably Sofie Rosshaug (21). She comes into the tournament in good form with a couple of impressive wins at the BOXAM tournament in Spain in January but is still unlikely to beat Kob.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Natalia Kuczewska (7) , Other contenders- Ingrit Valencia Victoria (2), Pihla Kaivo-Oja (9) .

An interesting youth vs experience battle in the fourth bracket. Multi-time world medallist Ingrit Valencia Victoria gets a favourable but far from guaranteed draw which sees her face Antonia Giannakopoulou (28)  before a battle with the inconsistent Pihla Kaivo-Oja. Susan Aguas (18)  provides the penultimate test before a qualifying fight against Natalia Kuczewska who faces a whole lot of nothing on her side of the bracket. Kuczewska is very inexperienced but has produced some impressive wins of late and absolutely is capable of beating Valencia. I am going to back the underdog here.

 

W57kg

 

Only the top two to qualify here so just 2 brackets instead of 4. It is strange that there are 2 quotas here and 4 at the second one. They could just have added the host quota that France didn't need here instead of at the second qualifying tournament. Additionally, with the exception of Tokyo silver medallist Nesthy Petecio  all of the top boxers in the world have already qualified so the field isn't very strong here.

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Nesthy Petecio (1) , Other contenders- Jennifer Fernandez (2) , Elis Glynn (3) , Xu Zichun (5) , Maud Van der Toorn (7) .

Unfortunately a very uneven draw between the top and bottom brackets. The top half of this bracket sees Nesthy Petecio have a couple of straightforward fights against Andela Brankovic (25)  and Claudia Nechita (15)  before a "semi final" against the winner of Jennifer Fernandez an 2022 60kg youth world champion Maud Van der Toorn. The bottom half of the top bracket sees a couple of intersting fights with 60kg Olympian Esra Yildiz (10)  facing former bantamweight Bojana Gojkovic (8)  with the winner meeting Preedakmon Tintabthai (18) . Elise Glynn will have an interesting fight against Xu Zichun provided Xu can beat Nikolina Cacic (14) . Petecio should be a level above all of her opposition here.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Julia Szerezmeta (4) , Other contenders- Vilma Viitanenen (6) , Satsuki Yoshizawa (9) , Marie Al-Ahmadieh (12) , Alyssa Mendoza (13) .

The second half of this draw is much weaker than the first but still some interesting fights. Julia Szerezmeta should at least reach a "semi final" with just the young Anastasia Molochko (11)  in her path. There she will likely meet Vilma Viitanen provided Viitanen can beat Sitora Turdibekova (17)  and Szabina Szucs (19) . The bottom half of this bracket sees an interesting early fight between Satsuki Yoshizawa and Alyssa Mendoza before a likely "semi final" for the winner against Marie Al-Ahmadieh provided she can navigate the awkward Olga Papadatou (16) . On paper this will come down to the Szeremeta vs Viitanen fight which Szeremeta took on a split decision at Europeans but any of Yoshizawa, Al-Ahmadieh or Mendoza could pose a threat in the qualifying matchup.

 

[Chemical death 0]

Any update about the results?? ..where can I find those ? 

[avlar 372]

Information from the organizrers:

 

The TV streaming coverage on http://Olympics.com of the World Olympic Qualification Tournament - Busto Arsizio 2024 will be from 8th to 12th March.

 

As regards the transmission on Italian territory, further information will be provided in the next few days.

 

Please remember that the TV streaming rights do not belong to FPI.

Edited March 3, 2024 by avlar

[Jur 687]

So..... favorite for the quota  Martin Molina lost already in first round against a boxer from  after winning the first 2 rounds lmao this is just unbereable at this point

[Kacper 4]

Where you have a results?

[Roamingrover86 856]

  On 3/3/2024 at 1:18 PM, Jur said:

So..... favorite for the quota  Martin Molina lost already in first round against a boxer from  after winning the first 2 rounds lmao this is just unbereable at this point

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Can you share the live score link please

[Illya 518]

Zamotaev won the first fight 

[Roamingrover86 856]

  On 3/3/2024 at 1:31 PM, Illya said:

Zamotaev won the first fight 

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Where are you getting the results from? Can you share the live score page please

[Chemical death 0]

  On 3/3/2024 at 1:31 PM, Illya said:

Zamotaev won the first fight 

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Can you plz send the link of the source from where are you getting the results?